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Worse is yet to come!
nickyng
Supreme
23-Dec-2008 15:11     
 
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aya lawyer any time oso gd wan lah...anyway even u engage lawyer so? u cant sue those Hedge fund..they bankkrupt u die also...doesn't benefit u mutually as well leh...deadlock situation.... :D

mean time enjoy ur xmas and new year lah!! :P say...tomor lunch buffet siah !! :D b4 that we play silly games..haha..no prize woh... :D



dcang84      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 10:52) Posted:



'Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.'

This is true and that is why some quarters are seeking legal advice. This is a good time to be a lawyer.
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cheongwee
Elite
23-Dec-2008 11:12     
 
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Of course, rally will be most desirable, but even if you buy now also no harm, we are buying at one of the low...years from now we will definitely see much higher px..provided you long...

STI 1200 or 2100..let market take it course..we will come to that and know the answer soon...but still prefer rally...it is easier for us to make $...isnt it...good luck.



Hulumas      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 11:02) Posted:

STI 1200 no way !!! STI will pass through 2100 there will be the way in 2009 !!!

cheongwee      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 10:46) Posted:

Your 1200 for sti is what i initially thought of..then i believe we buy capland at 1.7 and many other like i bought before..buy slowly, be patient,
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Hulumas
Supreme
23-Dec-2008 11:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		STI 1200 no way !!! STI will pass through 2100 there will be the way in 2009 !!!

cheongwee      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 10:46) Posted:

Your 1200 for sti is what i initially thought of..then i believe we buy capland at 1.7 and many other like i bought before..buy slowly, be patient,

scotty      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 07:42) Posted:



 





 Good article here.

DBS rights issue and the more than 10,000 deferred payment sales - provide the much needed wake up call that the worse is yet to come
22-Dec



Just back from a short break with the family in ShenZhen and Macau.  Friends I met there shared anecdotal evidence that the economy is weakening fast.  On the golf course, I was told that a normal caddy would do 2 flights per day but now its one flight every two or three days.  The spas and karaoke lounges are also empty.  In ShenZhen and Dongguang, the number of corporate failures is in the thousands as most of these are export oriented companies which have been impacted by the slowdown in the global economy.  In Macau, the Venetian was impressive but the level of activity was slow....during and after the weekend.  Anyway its an impressive casino and I am wondering whether our own IRs will even be able to come close in terms of granduer and casino traffic.

Back to the Singapore market, I was not surprised by the rally in the STI Index to pass the 1800 level.  I also read in the newspapers this morning that some market watchers are calling that the worse is over and that markets have bottomed.  This is being too optimistic....the market's strength is coming from thin trading where even on low volumes blue chip index stocks can rise.  Banks and property led the bounce off the 1600 level but its another BEAR rally.....more downside ahead especially into Q1-2009. 

Why am I still so bearish that the worse is yet to come ??

First the economic data from the US, EU, Japan and even China is getting worse and unemployment is rising.  Even the World Bank and IMF chiefs are warning of an even worse 2009 compared to H2-2008.  Second, the wave of hedge fund selling is NOT OVER.....and deleveraging is still continuing.  Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.  This means that the hedge fund redemption selling is still not over. Thirdly, we see job redundancies rising and many companies shutdown production by one to two months because of a huge build-up of inventory. 

The market probably had a wake up call that the worse is yet to come when DBS announced its huge rights issue today of 1:2 at $5.42 which would raise around S$4bn in new money.  This is apparently not for acquisition but to strengthen its balance sheet with Temasek agreeing to underwrite one third of the issue.  I have a few questions on the rights which given the weakness in the share price today probably means that other investors have similar concerns.

Firstly why is the discount on the rights so steep ?  If the US$4bn is not for acquisition then does it imply some potential damage to DBS' balance sheet given the weak economy ?  The fact that DBS was already trading at a price to book discount to OCBC and UOB means that the market was already cognizant of the poorer asset quality of DBS compared to the other two banks.   The next concern by the market is that the other two banks would also be doing similar fund raisings in the near future.

Let me remind investors about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis where our bank NPLs were more than 10% and the bank share prices traded to a low of 0.5 times price to book.....Is this crisis worse or better than the Asian Financial Crisis ?  Many people including myself are of the view that this is the worse crisis since the great depression - so it should be worse than 1997 - this means higher than 10% NPLs and a possibility of trading below 0.5 times price to book.  If our banks trade down to those levels and given there one third weighting in the STI Index - the index could fall to the 1200 level !  So dont be fooled by the recent firmness - its got no legs because market volumes are very low.

Market Commentary By: 

Kevin Scully
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dcang84
Veteran
23-Dec-2008 10:52     
 
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'Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.'

This is true and that is why some quarters are seeking legal advice. This is a good time to be a lawyer.
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cheongwee
Elite
23-Dec-2008 10:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Your 1200 for sti is what i initially thought of..then i believe we buy capland at 1.7 and many other like i bought before..buy slowly, be patient,

scotty      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 07:42) Posted:



 





 Good article here.

DBS rights issue and the more than 10,000 deferred payment sales - provide the much needed wake up call that the worse is yet to come
22-Dec



Just back from a short break with the family in ShenZhen and Macau.  Friends I met there shared anecdotal evidence that the economy is weakening fast.  On the golf course, I was told that a normal caddy would do 2 flights per day but now its one flight every two or three days.  The spas and karaoke lounges are also empty.  In ShenZhen and Dongguang, the number of corporate failures is in the thousands as most of these are export oriented companies which have been impacted by the slowdown in the global economy.  In Macau, the Venetian was impressive but the level of activity was slow....during and after the weekend.  Anyway its an impressive casino and I am wondering whether our own IRs will even be able to come close in terms of granduer and casino traffic.

Back to the Singapore market, I was not surprised by the rally in the STI Index to pass the 1800 level.  I also read in the newspapers this morning that some market watchers are calling that the worse is over and that markets have bottomed.  This is being too optimistic....the market's strength is coming from thin trading where even on low volumes blue chip index stocks can rise.  Banks and property led the bounce off the 1600 level but its another BEAR rally.....more downside ahead especially into Q1-2009. 

Why am I still so bearish that the worse is yet to come ??

First the economic data from the US, EU, Japan and even China is getting worse and unemployment is rising.  Even the World Bank and IMF chiefs are warning of an even worse 2009 compared to H2-2008.  Second, the wave of hedge fund selling is NOT OVER.....and deleveraging is still continuing.  Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.  This means that the hedge fund redemption selling is still not over. Thirdly, we see job redundancies rising and many companies shutdown production by one to two months because of a huge build-up of inventory. 

The market probably had a wake up call that the worse is yet to come when DBS announced its huge rights issue today of 1:2 at $5.42 which would raise around S$4bn in new money.  This is apparently not for acquisition but to strengthen its balance sheet with Temasek agreeing to underwrite one third of the issue.  I have a few questions on the rights which given the weakness in the share price today probably means that other investors have similar concerns.

Firstly why is the discount on the rights so steep ?  If the US$4bn is not for acquisition then does it imply some potential damage to DBS' balance sheet given the weak economy ?  The fact that DBS was already trading at a price to book discount to OCBC and UOB means that the market was already cognizant of the poorer asset quality of DBS compared to the other two banks.   The next concern by the market is that the other two banks would also be doing similar fund raisings in the near future.

Let me remind investors about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis where our bank NPLs were more than 10% and the bank share prices traded to a low of 0.5 times price to book.....Is this crisis worse or better than the Asian Financial Crisis ?  Many people including myself are of the view that this is the worse crisis since the great depression - so it should be worse than 1997 - this means higher than 10% NPLs and a possibility of trading below 0.5 times price to book.  If our banks trade down to those levels and given there one third weighting in the STI Index - the index could fall to the 1200 level !  So dont be fooled by the recent firmness - its got no legs because market volumes are very low.

Market Commentary By: 

Kevin Scully
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me


nickyng
Supreme
23-Dec-2008 10:45     
 
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chin chye lah....signup as POLICEMAN...ICA customs officer or if u got wat it takes...

BE

A
TEACHER !! :P

got sch holidays twice yearly....though can be stressful with today's internet-age students ! :D

nevertheless it is a hard to crack IRON RICE POT ! :D
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cheongwee
Elite
23-Dec-2008 10:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I think got to work harder to get jobs for my guys...have been a technician and personnally got retrench twice...for those working , got to work harder to impress boss...for those business,,, even small jobs which make miserable $ also take...small and small put together make up for lost in other areas..
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cheongwee
Elite
23-Dec-2008 10:31     
 
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But i think there may be a rally after Obama takeover..that maybe the last for this year, then come reporting for corporate America again,,,there are going to be lot of bad news upfront..

Have read from contribution from economic expert saying AIG and Citi is still in the very deep..i think the bailout $ is just for them to buy time...come April we will know...whether the economy is improving or not.

Bank is not lending to one another..comsumer is not buying as much, businessman is not investing and cutting job,,and bank is not lending..this is just a vicious cycle that is going to get worse..this crsies is definitely broadbase, unlike previous ones...let hope confident return fast..
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nickyng
Supreme
23-Dec-2008 10:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		har? gd article? ...hmm..so should WE wait for stock price to fall further? u wait..i wait...they wait...then i think it WILL fall further !! :D ...hee..better to find a garment job..with iron ricebowl...steady income...ride out the recession...save some $$ alot the way and wait for stock to go SUPER LOW to accumulate ! :D
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cheongwee
Elite
23-Dec-2008 10:18     
 
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Yes, agree, never before have i heard many of my business associate complaining bank refuse to give out loan,..maybe bank alot of problem with bad loan...this is really bad...luckily i dont have any outstanding loan..i am thrift..i use what i make to put back into my business..

But if the crises drag on then i would say the crises have to hit me,but i will try to find smaller job here and there to make up..like the last time..there are alot of cashflow problem..



scotty      ( Date: 23-Dec-2008 07:42) Posted:



 





 Good article here.

DBS rights issue and the more than 10,000 deferred payment sales - provide the much needed wake up call that the worse is yet to come
22-Dec



Just back from a short break with the family in ShenZhen and Macau.  Friends I met there shared anecdotal evidence that the economy is weakening fast.  On the golf course, I was told that a normal caddy would do 2 flights per day but now its one flight every two or three days.  The spas and karaoke lounges are also empty.  In ShenZhen and Dongguang, the number of corporate failures is in the thousands as most of these are export oriented companies which have been impacted by the slowdown in the global economy.  In Macau, the Venetian was impressive but the level of activity was slow....during and after the weekend.  Anyway its an impressive casino and I am wondering whether our own IRs will even be able to come close in terms of granduer and casino traffic.

Back to the Singapore market, I was not surprised by the rally in the STI Index to pass the 1800 level.  I also read in the newspapers this morning that some market watchers are calling that the worse is over and that markets have bottomed.  This is being too optimistic....the market's strength is coming from thin trading where even on low volumes blue chip index stocks can rise.  Banks and property led the bounce off the 1600 level but its another BEAR rally.....more downside ahead especially into Q1-2009. 

Why am I still so bearish that the worse is yet to come ??

First the economic data from the US, EU, Japan and even China is getting worse and unemployment is rising.  Even the World Bank and IMF chiefs are warning of an even worse 2009 compared to H2-2008.  Second, the wave of hedge fund selling is NOT OVER.....and deleveraging is still continuing.  Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.  This means that the hedge fund redemption selling is still not over. Thirdly, we see job redundancies rising and many companies shutdown production by one to two months because of a huge build-up of inventory. 

The market probably had a wake up call that the worse is yet to come when DBS announced its huge rights issue today of 1:2 at $5.42 which would raise around S$4bn in new money.  This is apparently not for acquisition but to strengthen its balance sheet with Temasek agreeing to underwrite one third of the issue.  I have a few questions on the rights which given the weakness in the share price today probably means that other investors have similar concerns.

Firstly why is the discount on the rights so steep ?  If the US$4bn is not for acquisition then does it imply some potential damage to DBS' balance sheet given the weak economy ?  The fact that DBS was already trading at a price to book discount to OCBC and UOB means that the market was already cognizant of the poorer asset quality of DBS compared to the other two banks.   The next concern by the market is that the other two banks would also be doing similar fund raisings in the near future.

Let me remind investors about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis where our bank NPLs were more than 10% and the bank share prices traded to a low of 0.5 times price to book.....Is this crisis worse or better than the Asian Financial Crisis ?  Many people including myself are of the view that this is the worse crisis since the great depression - so it should be worse than 1997 - this means higher than 10% NPLs and a possibility of trading below 0.5 times price to book.  If our banks trade down to those levels and given there one third weighting in the STI Index - the index could fall to the 1200 level !  So dont be fooled by the recent firmness - its got no legs because market volumes are very low.

Market Commentary By: 

Kevin Scully
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
singaporegal
Supreme
23-Dec-2008 09:52     
 
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Yep. A good article indeed.

Agree with its views. 
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scotty
Senior
23-Dec-2008 07:42     
 
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 Good article here.

DBS rights issue and the more than 10,000 deferred payment sales - provide the much needed wake up call that the worse is yet to come
22-Dec



Just back from a short break with the family in ShenZhen and Macau.  Friends I met there shared anecdotal evidence that the economy is weakening fast.  On the golf course, I was told that a normal caddy would do 2 flights per day but now its one flight every two or three days.  The spas and karaoke lounges are also empty.  In ShenZhen and Dongguang, the number of corporate failures is in the thousands as most of these are export oriented companies which have been impacted by the slowdown in the global economy.  In Macau, the Venetian was impressive but the level of activity was slow....during and after the weekend.  Anyway its an impressive casino and I am wondering whether our own IRs will even be able to come close in terms of granduer and casino traffic.

Back to the Singapore market, I was not surprised by the rally in the STI Index to pass the 1800 level.  I also read in the newspapers this morning that some market watchers are calling that the worse is over and that markets have bottomed.  This is being too optimistic....the market's strength is coming from thin trading where even on low volumes blue chip index stocks can rise.  Banks and property led the bounce off the 1600 level but its another BEAR rally.....more downside ahead especially into Q1-2009. 

Why am I still so bearish that the worse is yet to come ??

First the economic data from the US, EU, Japan and even China is getting worse and unemployment is rising.  Even the World Bank and IMF chiefs are warning of an even worse 2009 compared to H2-2008.  Second, the wave of hedge fund selling is NOT OVER.....and deleveraging is still continuing.  Many of my friends who have invested in Hedge funds have been informed that redemptions are being frozen until the third quarter of 2009 because capital markets are depressed and illquid.  This means that the hedge fund redemption selling is still not over. Thirdly, we see job redundancies rising and many companies shutdown production by one to two months because of a huge build-up of inventory. 

The market probably had a wake up call that the worse is yet to come when DBS announced its huge rights issue today of 1:2 at $5.42 which would raise around S$4bn in new money.  This is apparently not for acquisition but to strengthen its balance sheet with Temasek agreeing to underwrite one third of the issue.  I have a few questions on the rights which given the weakness in the share price today probably means that other investors have similar concerns.

Firstly why is the discount on the rights so steep ?  If the US$4bn is not for acquisition then does it imply some potential damage to DBS' balance sheet given the weak economy ?  The fact that DBS was already trading at a price to book discount to OCBC and UOB means that the market was already cognizant of the poorer asset quality of DBS compared to the other two banks.   The next concern by the market is that the other two banks would also be doing similar fund raisings in the near future.

Let me remind investors about the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis where our bank NPLs were more than 10% and the bank share prices traded to a low of 0.5 times price to book.....Is this crisis worse or better than the Asian Financial Crisis ?  Many people including myself are of the view that this is the worse crisis since the great depression - so it should be worse than 1997 - this means higher than 10% NPLs and a possibility of trading below 0.5 times price to book.  If our banks trade down to those levels and given there one third weighting in the STI Index - the index could fall to the 1200 level !  So dont be fooled by the recent firmness - its got no legs because market volumes are very low.

Market Commentary By: 

Kevin Scully
 Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me
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