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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m

Peter_Pan
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24-Jan-2013 19:40

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Shall wait for 0.60-0.59 to enter again. Finger-crossed.

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ozone2002
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24-Jan-2013 17:16

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By DMG

Ausgroup

Triplets! Three contracts in three weeks

AusGroup announced another contract win yesterday, making it the third contract win in as many weeks since the start of January. The latest one is a A$20m extension of the Gorgon Project for pipe spools fabrication, following a A$17m sale and hire of scaffolding. We are maintaining our Buy call with a TP of $0.755. The recent order wins have overtaken the rate of order book consumption, with the outstanding order book rising by A$9m from the A$271m order book we noted in our 7-Jan note. These bring the total contracts won this month up to at least A$57m (there are possibly small unannounced wins), outpacing by 25% the win rate required for our A$731m revenue forecast this year. We continue to expect a good order win momentum.

ASX listing plans still going ahead. We hosted AusGroup during our Corporate Day last week, and management shared that the ASX listing plans were moving along smoothly. There is no fixed timetable, though we did sense a certain impetus supporting this move for strategic reasons – once listed on the ASX, we think that a better valuation might be achieved which may then make AusGroup shares more valuable for acquisitions, dovetailing with management’s stated aim of expanding into Queensland.

Fundamentally undervalued even without ASX listing. While the success of the ASX listing may be a potential catalyst, we rate AusGroup on the base-case of the SGX-listing being maintained. Even so, it is undervalued – a FY13F P/E of 7.6x vs. Civmec’s FY12 P/E of 20.5x.

Our turnaround investment thesis is maintained. We initiated coverage on AusGroup on the thesis that the turnaround had gone unnoticed by the market. While the stock has risen 51% since our Sep-12 initiation, this has not fully priced in even the FY13F recovery. We expect net margin improvements to continue through FY15F. Also, the price today does not incorporate much growth expectations – unlike Civmec which clearly has a certain level of growth already factored into the price.

Maintain Buy with TP $0.755. We continue to value AusGroup at 9x FY13F EPS for a TP of $0.755. We are expecting the 2Q13 results release within the next three weeks.

A$280m outstanding order book today.

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ozone2002
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24-Jan-2013 09:06

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AusGroup Limited, subsidiary AGC Industries Pty Ltd, announced it has been awarded additional fabrication work to the value of approximately AUD20 million on the Chevron-operated Gorgon Project, taking the total contract value to more than AUD70 million. AGC’s scope of work involves high specification fabrication of stainless and carbon steel pipework, non-destructive testing, post weld heat treatment, blasting and LNG specification painting related to the LNG modules for trains 1-3 on the Gorgon Project. Fabrication will be undertaken at AGC’s manufacturing and fabrication facilities in Kwinana and Henderson, Western Australia. (Closing price: S$0.635, -0.781%)

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Peter_Pan
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23-Jan-2013 23:07

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First support at 0.59. Second support at 0.54.

radiantforce ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 22:56) Posted:

i had this same analysis as you from the charts which led to me selling it off today. MACD, RSI and MA looking like the beginning to turn.

Fell to .625 which is below its support before rebounding back up too.

that was before the contract announcement. maybe there will be a chance to re-enter at a lower point again later.

Peter_Pan ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 18:57) Posted:

On the chart, it doesn't look good at all, bollinger band shows extremely high volatility, MACD is like going to u-turn, RSI and Stochastic also like going to u-turn. Momentum has plunged.

Anyway, play by ear lar.

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radiantforce
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23-Jan-2013 22:56

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Peter_Pan ( Date: 23-Jan-2013 18:57) Posted:

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Peter_Pan
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23-Jan-2013 18:57

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raykee
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23-Jan-2013 17:56

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AusGroup announces an additional AUD20 million

of work on Gorgon Pipe Spools Contract

AusGroup Limited subsidiary AGC Industries Pty Ltd (“AGC”), a leading Australian based construction

and fabrication company today announced it has been awarded additional fabrication work to the

value of approximately AUD20 million on the Chevron-operated Gorgon Project, taking the total

contract value to more than AUD70 million.

AGC’s scope of work involves high specification fabrication of stainless and carbon steel pipework,

non-destructive testing, post weld heat treatment, blasting and LNG specification painting related to

the LNG modules for trains 1-3 on the Gorgon Project. Fabrication will be undertaken at AGC’s

manufacturing and fabrication facilities in Kwinana and Henderson, Western Australia.

“Our ongoing work on the Gorgon Pipe Spools contract has been extended with an upgrade to the

original contract that was awarded to AGC in May 2011, which was valued at approximately AUD50

million. This takes the total contract value to more than AUD70 million.

Securing this extension of works will create further job opportunities in Western Australia” said Laurie

Barlow, CEO & Managing Director.

The Gorgon Project is one of the world’s largest natural gas projects and the single largest resource

development in Australia’s history. It is operated by an Australian subsidiary of Chevron and is a joint

venture of the Australian subsidiaries of Chevron (47.3 percent), with the Australian subsidiaries of

ExxonMobil (25 percent), Shell (25 percent), Osaka Gas (1.25 percent), Tokyo Gas (1 percent) and

Chubu Electric Power (0.417 percent).

With this contract award, AusGroup’s order book now stands at AUD280 million

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lllusion
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23-Jan-2013 17:15

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ANNOUNCES AN ADDITIONAL AUD20 MILLION OF WORK ON GORGON PIPE

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ace333
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23-Jan-2013 14:28

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low 0.625...wonder y i enjoy

gavinl ( Date: 15-Jan-2013 12:22) Posted:

Lol.You seems to enjoy shorting this counter.

Any particular reason?

ace333 ( Date: 15-Jan-2013 12:17) Posted:

i waiting to cover below 0.63.

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radiantforce
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23-Jan-2013 14:07

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sold at .625.

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s100125
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23-Jan-2013 13:28

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many are betting for dual listing announcement this month

but January coming to an end soon still no news about it, really disappointing.

better pull out and put into other counter that can make some $$

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h0ly0wl
Senior

23-Jan-2013 13:09

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A minor correction is expected. If you take a look
at the recent chart of ausgroup, you will notice that
a bullish flag is forming. The next breakout should
be coming soon.

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ace333
Supreme

23-Jan-2013 13:06

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aiya forgot to short today

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Peter_Pan
Supreme

23-Jan-2013 12:22

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First support at 0.59. Second support at 0.54.

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Peter_Pan
Supreme

23-Jan-2013 12:13

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Hope those who bought has taken profits.

Peter_Pan ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 11:45) Posted:

Yes, shift your funds elsewhere first.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 14-Jan-2013 11:43) Posted:

Then, you slowly wait loh.

67 to 70cents is 4.48%.

I would rather to look for other counter which may raise 20 to 30% in next few weeks till Chinese New Year like my 2 babis Tiong Woon and China Minzhong

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ynnek1267
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21-Jan-2013 19:48

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Nobody can predict what hapen tomorrow.

Put 30% profit in pocket is best decision.

If go up further, you all enjoy, if drop, bad luck to you.

radiantforce ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 17:56) Posted:

.64-.645 seems like a nice support line currently as well as based on historical value with the resistance being at .675.

good job taking profits at its resistance ynnek.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 15:11) Posted:

Wahahaha, you are still discussing Ausgroup and waiting for Ausgroup to Chiong.

I had already taken my 67cents profit which is bought at 51cents and enjoying the profit now. Wahahaha!!!

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radiantforce
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21-Jan-2013 17:56

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.64-.645 seems like a nice support line currently as well as based on historical value with the resistance being at .675.

good job taking profits at its resistance ynnek.

ynnek1267 ( Date: 21-Jan-2013 15:11) Posted:

Wahahaha, you are still discussing Ausgroup and waiting for Ausgroup to Chiong.

I had already taken my 67cents profit which is bought at 51cents and enjoying the profit now. Wahahaha!!!

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ynnek1267
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21-Jan-2013 15:11

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Wahahaha, you are still discussing Ausgroup and waiting for Ausgroup to Chiong.

I had already taken my 67cents profit which is bought at 51cents and enjoying the profit now. Wahahaha!!!

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pcxiao2008
Senior

21-Jan-2013 14:17

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pull back for ausgroup or this is the highest it can go before any good news coming up?

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lllusion
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15-Jan-2013 15:24

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Covered?
Don't think it will go below 0.63 today..

gavinl ( Date: 15-Jan-2013 12:22) Posted:

Lol.You seems to enjoy shorting this counter.

Any particular reason?

ace333 ( Date: 15-Jan-2013 12:17) Posted:

i waiting to cover below 0.63.

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