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NOL
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dippyboy
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03-May-2013 03:31
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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Good observation , the market breath has been broadly negative in commodities, energy and mid caps.speculative counters has been collapsing from their peak. Its is reflective of disappointing earnings and negative forward looking fundamentals directly related to china slowdown . Generally speaking, numerous STI index stocks has hit historic highs surpassing 07 peak but without equivalent earnings so on a adjusted PE basis, stripping out record low interest on debt,it is even more expensive then 07. When valuation and fundamentals diverge wider , all of a sudden a crisis out of the corner can easily reset the market. Bad things happen in a murphy and before long the gloom will cloud in and sentiment will be bearish. Bullish pollyannish wishful thinking that QE alone will make stocks will go up forever regardless of fundamentals will have to face reality. Now shipping industry will be directly hit from any SE asia recession with severe impact to the top line revenue which had been the only source of support for shippers to maintain their cashflow and service record debt levels.When top line is gone, high fixed cost will be unsustainable and can create bankruptycy for highly indebted inefficient shippers, cleansing excess capacity for the next cyclical upturn.The worse has possibly not come yet..........
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sgng123
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02-May-2013 23:40
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ECB cut rate to 0.5%, open to further interest rate cut and negative deposit rate. Soon everyone would be rushing to buy gold/stocks cos paper money would lose value very fast. Check ur insurance policy projected value and you found the returns after maturity dropped a lot due to very low return on bonds. tomorrow STI going to move higher tomorrow due to central banks action and UOB also reported better result than what market expected. I am not surprised if the situation become so desperate that savers would need to pay banks for holding their cash lol. Topping up our CPF retirement account make smarter investment than putting money in bank due to risk free guaranteed 4% interest rate lol. | ||||
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sgng123
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02-May-2013 23:16
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Depend on how fast people start to spent money freely again. Central banks are all trying to push for economy growth by printing money to buy up bonds. Might be 2nd half 2013, 2014 or even 2015. It is a testing time for true investors, time rewards investors who can hold out due to the fact growth usually would overshoot before stabilising as a result of easy money by central bank. Pent up spending urge result in explosive spending spree lol. | ||||
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CSH123
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02-May-2013 22:29
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When will the global contraction end? How long will a long haul be? | ||||
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sgng123
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02-May-2013 15:12
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That is the point, DBS and UOB supporting the STI and trading sentiment. Both gaining 0.75 and 0.60, making it very hard for other traders to sell down stock lol, dumb market mechanism. People likely be fooled into buying high on defensive then later market crash all get caught with their pant down very typical of a bull market trap. | ||||
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Hawkeye
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02-May-2013 13:39
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Overall Market is down. Dont be mislead by STI Index for top 30stocks Cap. Its because of bank stock up as much as 2% due to DBS and other banks make money from credit market and trading. We are the one giving the banks rich pockets LOL
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sgng123
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02-May-2013 11:24
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To add on, STI up by 25 today while US go down 138 last nite. This is what I am fearing, fake bull market before a colossal bear market crash bringing down every investors who buy in defensive stock for yield. Stock market not moving in correspond to economy is dangerous time. | ||||
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sgng123
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02-May-2013 11:19
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Stay caution and play the waiting game for NOL. If good result from 1Q13 then we can punt on the bombed out share price to make money otherwise it is best to stay out of market. Very dangerous now, global economy is weak and yet defensive stocks are all at record high price. When the fund managers decided to pull the plug, can cause a major stock market crash. | ||||
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pseudo
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01-May-2013 20:26
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G6 peers
NYK(FY2012 ended march 31 2013) - 230 mil profit Mol - 1.8bil loss (tanker and bulk exposure) Oocl - 1q13 revenue up 4%qoq Mol+nyk expects profit this year. NOL? Probably lose some money from sale of HQ... I hv learnt that NOL never outperform the industry compared with peers... To put it plainly, NOL is badly run company. |
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gelu2279
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01-May-2013 20:06
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i think based on data in 1Q... got chance NOL pushed down to ~$1... agreed that its dangerous time to enter | ||||
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sgng123
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01-May-2013 17:24
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NOL operating cost according to 4Q12 is slightly below US$2500, which is lower than the average freight rate of US2509 for fiscal year 2012. Bunker fuel is like 4% lower compared to 4Q which might further help to lower the operating cost. As long NOL got a better transpacific rate in May and Intra Asia rate also look promising this year, Europe is goner so don bother. NOL would return to profitability this year most likely due to cost saving, lower oil and 1 time non-reoccurring gain ( NOL building). IF average freight rate got 3-4% boost then we might see a surprise 2Q/3Q upside in earning which might move share price higher but don go in yet till 1Q13 is out. Lastly NOL contract with shippers is not index linked meaning actual freight rate is not the same in the SCFI. I got it wrong last year when SCFI rally assuming freight rate would follow but got it wrong. 2Q13 result in August would give us an idea what is the contract rate, 2Q12 average freight rate is US$2615. |
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gelu2279
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01-May-2013 14:29
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very keen to look at liner margins... if NOL's cost management is sustainable. hopefully NOL's topline can grow at volume growth (~4%)... freight rates are really disappointing.. better to assume they stay at current levels at least for 6 months? |
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sgng123
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01-May-2013 11:44
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We back to weak growth trend, share price would be hovering in the 1.05-1.09 range while waiting for 1Q13 result. Japanese carriers most reported a return to profit in their full year report as they closed their financial year in Mar31, high chance Jan - Mar quarter is profitable for container shipping. For NOL investors, going to be tough for this week and next as the weeding out of weak players continue. |
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sgng123
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30-Apr-2013 11:11
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Mistake not warrant but it is extended settlement ( NOL.ES1305) meaning it is a 2 parties settling on a future contract on a fixed price. The contract is expiring today, expect a big jump in volume after market close. |
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sgng123
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30-Apr-2013 10:54
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Warrant might be expiring today, same thing happening in last Oct when the share price drop to 1.09 with 80 million done after market close. Noble also same, when market close watch out for the volume, don be shocked by it. |
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sgng123
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29-Apr-2013 17:31
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Slow decline in share price due to growth concern. Hand off this stock till 14 May when stock get a rerating catalyst from brokerage. Currently the weeding out of small retailers by big house traders is on going. This week got lot of economy data for Apr namely Wed : US ISM report, private job data Thurs : China PMI data, US jobless claim data and lastly Friday : the important US NFP job data. | ||||
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sgng123
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25-Apr-2013 18:06
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Just go into the link I provided, however the actual freight rate would only be known in 2Q. A better transpacific rate for NOL would be good for fiscal result in 2013 since US trade account for ~50% of group revenue. |
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dippyboy
Member |
25-Apr-2013 03:03
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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Thks for the info. possible to provide the exact links to the PSS/bunker surcharge/GRI in the website? Not familiar and so i couldn't find any rates avail , even the calculator tariffs seems to be broken as any dates i put in cant be used.
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sgng123
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25-Apr-2013 01:11
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Currently big ships would be unable to service most of transpacific ports due to outdated port facilities in US. Most carriers still use 4500-9000teus ships for transpacific route plus the panama/suez canal are both not ready for those ultra big ship in the near term. The GRI announced by APL is evidence that the 12 months service contact they are signing on May1 would mostly likely be higher than 2012. Problem with GRI is all of us get fooled into thinking GRI would directly increase freight rate whereas in real business more than 80% cargo carried in the world are through private negotiation between carriers and shippers. The actual freight rate is differed across most liners, explained why some made money while other lose. Now I don refer to SCFI for trading info, I just pop into APL website to check for PSS/bunker surcharge/GRI. | ||||
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pseudo
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24-Apr-2013 00:05
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GRIs not working anymore. The market is tired of GRIs without meaningful capacity withdrawal.
G6 increased capacity on Asia Europe loops phasing in 14000 teus and pushing the 10000 teus to trans pac. Carriers seem to want it both ways. Market share and higher rates. Rate war is looming again. Carriers know what needs to be done but are not doing it. |
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