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Nostradamus Supreme	18-Sep-2006 18:12        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Falling yields from India's rubber plantations will cut the industry's growth rate over the next 6-7 years at a time of soaring demand, a top industry official. "The growth rate of domestic consumption will be much more than the rate of production in the next few years," Sajen Peter, chairman of India's state-run Rubber Board told Reuters. Things would only improve once trees being planted now were ready to be harvested. India's rubber production grew 7.1% in the year to March 2006, to 802,625 tonnes, due to good rains, while consumption rose 6.1% to 801,110 tonnes. But output is likely to expand by only 3.5% in 2006/07, to 831,000 tonnes, while demand is predicted to surge by around 5% as domestic and foreign tyre manufacturers buy more rubber to support a booming automobile sector. The gap between domestic demand and natural rubber output is met through imports and increased use of synthetic rubber. India is the world's fourth-largest producer of natural rubber after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. Most is consumed by the auto industry. Around 70% of India's rubber use is of natural rubber, and 30% synthetic, the reverse of consumption patterns in many countries. India's exports in the year to March 2007 are likely to fall to 50,000 tonnes, compared to 73,830 tonnes in the previous year, as domestic automobile companies devour most of the supply in a surging economy. It started exporting rubber only in 2000. Peter said exports zoomed last year because international prices were sharply higher than domestic levels, but the gap had closed in recent months. He said the international price of rubber had fallen to 82.41 rupees per kg on Sept. 11, from 125.50 rupees per kg on June 12. The domestic price has fallen to 82.50 rupees per kg on Sept. 15 from 115 rupees per kg on May 30. Prices have fallen largely as a result of talk of larger supplies from the main rubber producing countries and a drop in crude oil prices. India's key export destinations include China, which consumed 21% of global rubber output last year, Sri Lanka and Germany.
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Nostradamus Supreme	18-Sep-2006 18:08        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This question is better answered by the FA people.
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terencefok Master	10-Sep-2006 19:14        terencefok About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	why do they want to acquire Electro Magnetics since it is insolvent?
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Nostradamus Supreme	09-Sep-2006 22:35        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	The principal activity is investment holding. On 29 Dec 1999, it acquired all the shares of Electro Magnetics (1992) Ltd which was listed since 1993 and had become insolvent. Electro Magnetics became a subsidiary and is still under judicial management. Currently operating in 3 countries, namely Singapore where it maintains its corporate Headquarters and marketing/sales arm, Cameroon, where its wholly-owned subsidiary, GMG International, SA owns a 90% stake in Hevecam, which owns an industrial rubber plantation on a land concession of 40,000 hectares and Ivory Coast, where its 51.2% subsidiary, Tropical Rubber Cote d'Ivoire owns and operates a processing facility and a rubber plantation on a land concession of 1,511 hectares (Anguededou Plantation). As a producer of high quality natural rubber, it focuses on three key products, namely centrifuged latex, block rubbers of latex and tyre-grade rubber. With total annual production of around 46,000 tons, it accounts for approximately 55% and 14% of Cameroon's and Ivory Coast's annual rubber exports respectively. Both the Hevecam and Anguededou Plantations were acquired from the respective governments under State privatisation programmes. The State of Cameroon and the State of Cote d'Ivoire remain as a 10% and 20% shareholder in Hevecam and Tropical Rubber Cote d'Ivoire respectively.
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Nostradamus Supreme	07-Sep-2006 13:18        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	It is higher as valuations for the firm look attractive at current levels, dealers said. Its share price had fallen about 26.1% over the past month because low prices for natural rubber have deterred investors, DBSV said. Price of RSS-1 on SICOM fell from 32% its peak of US$2.86/kg (Jun 12) to US$1.94 (Sep 5). DBSV assumes average price for '06 will be US$2.2/kg as they believe NR price will recover slightly towards the end of 3Q. "GMG Global is currently trading at 5.3 times and 4.6 times 2006 and 2007 prospective PE, implying a 61% and a 64% discount to the broader market," DBS Vickers said in a note to clients. However, the brokerage believes the weakness in prices for natural rubber is temporary. "The seasonal world natural rubber deficit in the second quarter ... should positively support natural rubber prices against the market expectation of excess global supply," DBS Vickers said.
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Nostradamus Supreme	07-Sep-2006 13:07        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi cashiertan, I had a target very much similar to your $0.08. I had said that I see it going down a bit more in the near term. After rebounding, it may go down again in the medium term. This is the rebound based on TA and on DBSV re-iteration of target price of $0.14.
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shplayer Elite	30-Aug-2006 21:58        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, I used to listen to market rumours from friends and remisers and act on them. Not anymore....(expensive tuition).I still read analysts reports from time to time to try to extract some insights which I may not have considered....but I never take it in wholesale. I try to do my own research to the extent of doing my own forward projections to try to forecast how the company will fare down the road. I do all my transactions online....so I don't even talk to my broker. My decisions are based on certain FA criterias....P/E, Pr/NAV, Yield. When all this is done, I can take positions with confidence. Back to GMG....company was trading in USD till 20 June 2006. Last traded price was US cts 6.0 => sgd cts 9.5. GMG's balance sheet is not very impressive...but improving as shown below..... FY2004 - Curr Ratio (Curr Assets/Curr liab) - 0.61 FY2005 - Curr Ratio  - 0.74 HY 2006 - Curr Ratio - 1.05 Historical P&L is as follows: 2004 eps - sgd cts 0.31 2005 eps - sgd cts - 0.53 HY 2006 - sgd cts - 0.75....NAV 11.34cts My FY2006 eps forecast is now 1.2 cts (personal opinion) which, based on 10cts share, P/E is 8.3X, ....9.5cts- 7.9X......9.0cts - 7.5X. Hope this helps .......
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lowpeckkiyau Member	30-Aug-2006 14:09        lowpeckkiyau About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	thanks to all your views.   vested into GMG was based on  DBS and KE reports  and of course both projected NR price trend up for the next  6-7 yrs. Did not expect market to take a turn on NR price trend going downwards.   Looks like I've to exercise caution in future based on reports by analyst........sigh!
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OngHuiH Member	30-Aug-2006 09:56        OngHuiH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear Shplayer,  I enjoy reading your views as they are always back-up with facts, sensible and never over excited. Truely, appreciate  views. Is juz like after a "war failure",  need to reflect on what goes right and what goes wrong so that we won't make the same mistakes. Refering to Jul 06 reports: DBS (TP 0.14) & KE (TP 0.16) and both projected NR price trend up for the next 6-7 years.  And in less that 60 days, not 6 years,  the music tune has to be changed.  So, on what basis people do their research?  As ordinary investors, they don't have the resources and access to info that professionals have. So, most can only echo their views since both researchers from different houses are of the same view. This is called "Group Think" syndrome.  And they can cause hardships to people who rely on their inputs to make decision. If not, how else ordinary investors make decision? Use TA?  An expert in TA told me, if based on TA, he will never invest in GMG! This is another instructive case. Moreover, a 1 cent drop is 10% for 10 cents stock. If one invest in a 1 dollar stock, like SMRT (rd off), is only 1 % even though the absolute loss is $100 for both cases for every 10 lots.  If we take it objectively, we will benefit from this episode.  Once again, it is a reflection.  And again, I enjoy your views .........
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tanglinboy Elite	29-Aug-2006 21:47        tanglinboy About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood: Yells: "hello!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sing $
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chipchip66 Master	29-Aug-2006 21:43        chipchip66 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, is GMG trading in US$ or Sing$ now? Tks.
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Nostradamus Supreme	29-Aug-2006 17:15        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Japanese rubber futures fell nearly 4% on Tuesday, driven by recent declines in crude oil, a weak gold price and persistent talk of improving supplies in key producers in Southeast Asia. The benchmark contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange February 2007, dropped to its lowest since March 9 to 241.8 yen ($2.07) per kg before ending at 242.7 yen. "Technically, the market doesn't look good. We may expect another round of selling tomorrow," said a dealer in Tokyo. Crude oil edged up on Tuesday after sliding 3 percent the previous day as Tropical Storm Ernesto was forecast to bypass U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil facilities. Rubber prices often benefit from high crude oil prices because investors believe expensive oil will encourage a shift to natural rubber from synthetic rubber, a petroleum product. Tropical Storm Ernesto, which became the Atlantic season's first hurricane on Sunday, has since been downgraded, and weather forecasters now expect it to hit Florida, skipping key oil production facilities on the Gulf Coast. Dealers said a weak physical market as well as a sell-off in Japanese gold futures also dampened sentiment in Tokyo rubber futures. Tokyo gold extended losses to a one-week low as long liquidation accelerated due to a sell-off in New York, and on the yen's rise against the dollar . The price of tyre-grade fell in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, tracking losses in Tokyo. Main buyer China remained on the sidelines, waiting for the price to soften further. "We've been hearing rumours China is going to return to the market soon but nothing happens. That's why the price keeps coming down. People don't even talk about wintering anymore," said a dealer in Jakarta. Wintering in Indonesia, when rubber trees shed their leaves and latex output declines, is expected to last through the end of September.
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shplayer Elite	29-Aug-2006 17:02        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OngHuiH, My principal for this blog and in all cases, even to my friends, is not to tell, suggest, influence or persuade anyone what they should do about any counter. However, I will, to the best of my knowledge, give facts and figures relating to the counter and the industry to assist other members to make an informed decision. I trust this will not perceived as selfishness on my part. It is because I do not want to be seem to have any ulterior motives in participating in this blog. I also believe that anyone who is prepared to risk their hard earned $$$$ should be matured and informed enough to make their own decisions and strategies for their investments.. Blind faith followers will always fall victim to market rumours. Hence, I view my contribution is to provide facts and figures as best and as accurately as I can. This does not mean to say that my information has never been wrong. Back to GMG, looking at the broader picture, its HY 2006 profit ($18m+) is approx 150% of it FY 2005 profit($12m+). Looking at second half rubber prices to date, Jul/Aug average BL (Bulk Latex) price is about 50% more than FY2005 average.  Baring any unforeseen circumstance, I see no reason why FY 2006 should not be at least double that of FY2005.
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OngHuiH Member	29-Aug-2006 15:46        OngHuiH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good point Slyplayer. If it is only $8K then I think there shouldn't be any  serious "dilemma"   (loss about 10% about $800. Off course is relative)  Then has to ask what is your exit strategy  be it gain or loss when you buy?
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shplayer Elite	29-Aug-2006 15:08        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	lowpeckkiyau did not clarify if he is vested $80k or 80k shares (80 lots). If its the latter, then he committed $8K...and not $80K. If its the former, then $80K is pretty heavy.....but guess it is all relative....depending on ones available funds. To put things in perspective, the Bulk Latex prices (think  this is the category GMG deals with as they sell 'cup lumps), average YTD price for 2006 is still >47% above 2005 average price.
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Nostradamus Supreme	29-Aug-2006 10:25        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I see it going down a bit more in the near term. After rebounding, it may go down again in the medium term. Long term, it should be up. $80k is quite a heavy exposure. Maybe sell half when it rebounds.
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OngHuiH Member	29-Aug-2006 10:08        OngHuiH About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hi, allow me to express my viewpoint and possible options: looking at a larger perspective, from .10 (round off) to 0.09 is 2 bids down.  Loss is $100 per 10,000 shares. [Note: 1 cent of 0.10 cents per share (GMG)  is also equal to 1 cent of $1.00 per share eg SMRT (rds off].  So, it is very ricky to invest $80K in a penny stock. Perhaps, the decision is influenced by the recent researchers report that says rubber prices will be up in the next 6 years! And many bullish viewpoints expressed in this forum.  - This is another lesson learnt - cannot rely on others viewpoints and researchers report. Options available to manage risk ..... sell 80% of your holding. And keep 20%.  If the price go down by another 2 bids,  sell everything. Also, avoid investing  than then 20% of your capital in one single counter. This is juz my viewpoints. Regards.
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lowpeckkiyau Member	29-Aug-2006 08:35        lowpeckkiyau About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear si fu vested  at 0.102  for 80k.  should i cut loss due to declining of rubber prices.  I do not mind holding it for long term if  there is potential.   pl  advise - in a dilenma  do not know whether to hold or cut loss....
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shplayer Elite	28-Aug-2006 16:21        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Rubber prices are on serious downtrend. Chats below shows price trend from 3 Jan 06 to 28 Aug 06 of Cv and Bulk Latex.
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Nostradamus Supreme	25-Aug-2006 21:48        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Rubber planters in Asia are tapping trees faster than ever, pushing down prices and helping a recovery in shares of tyremakers Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear. Rubber prices in Tokyo, the world's biggest futures market for the material, have fallen 20% since reaching a record on June 12. Supply has risen after companies such as PT Astra Agro Lestari planted more rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia to keep up with Chinese consumption. Now, China is taking steps, such as last week's interest rate increase, to slow its economy. "The price of natural rubber may fall and that eases concerns among investors,'' said Ichiro Takamatsu, chief investment officer at Alphex Investments Co., a Tokyo-based hedge fund. Rubber production this year will rise 9% in Malaysia, 6% in Vietnam and 3.9% in Indonesia, contributing to a record annual supply, according to Prachaya Jumpasut, an analyst at the London-based International Rubber Study Group. Supply in Thailand will gain 1.7%, while India will boost output 9.9% and Sri Lanka 8%, he said. The six largest rubber producers - Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Sri Lanka - account for more than 90% of the world's natural rubber. Total production is likely to grow this year by 4.5% to 9.1m tons, outstripping demand and further swelling stockpiles, which stood at 2.3m tons at the end of 2005. Hidde Smit, secretary-general of the study group, warned in an interview in June that producers needed to curb the expansion of rubber plantations to prevent a glut. Benchmark natural rubber futures prices on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange this month fell below 250 yen (US$2.15) a kilogram for the first time since March. The price of rubber, still 48% higher than a year ago, may have further to fall as economic growth in China, the world's largest rubber user, slows. China, which consumes about 20% of world output, reported slower growth in industrial output and fixed-asset investments in July as policies aimed at curbing the economy took hold. The country is taking further steps. Its central bank last week raised benchmark lending and deposit rates simultaneously for the first time in two years. The economy grew 11.3% in Q2 from a year earlier, the most in more than a decade. The country will still need to import 1.5m tons of natural rubber this year to plug a domestic shortfall, up 7% on 2005, according to Jumpasut at the rubber study group. Still, the growth of Chinese rubber imports has slowed from 22% in 2004. Additional production will push futures prices down, according to Wang Weibo, a rubber trader at Tonglian Futures Co. in Shanghai, China's largest natural rubber futures brokerage by volume.
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