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Vard Holdings
ozone2002
Supreme
30-Jul-2013 15:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		i dont see how this deserves a good post rating?

heavenknow      ( Date: 30-Jul-2013 15:15) Posted:

0.81 already...gogogo
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heavenknow
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30-Jul-2013 15:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		0.81 already...gogogo
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wendel
Master
30-Jul-2013 15:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Vard will climb slowly la. Relax!
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uncleschampy
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30-Jul-2013 15:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Vard-" Tanic" is up again. Dunno just to get a breath before diving again.. or they waking up their idea
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heavenknow
Member
30-Jul-2013 14:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Engine repaired, setting sail again~
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wendel
Master
30-Jul-2013 13:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		makes more sense to invest?

ozone2002      ( Date: 30-Jul-2013 13:34) Posted:

check out the comparison of the O& M stocks..Vard is the cheapest of the lot.. gd luck dyodd

Figure 1: Singapore Offshore & Marine sector coverage stocks

Mkt Cap Tgt Last EPS Growth (%) EV/EBITDA (X) P/E (X) P/B (X) ROE (%) Div Yield (%)

(US$m) Curr Rec Price Price FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F

Keppel Corp 14,863 SGD Buy 12.12 10.44 14.1 (34.3) 9.9 10.0 12.6 11.5 8.3 12.7 11.5 2.0 1.9 1.8

Sembcorp Marine 7,379 SGD Buy 5.20 4.45 (28.6) 13.1 18.8 12.7 9.9 8.5 17.3 15.3 12.9 3.8 3.3 2.9

Yangzijiang 2,785 SGD Hold 0.93 0.92 (9.9) (20.8) (9.5) 3.7 3.9 4.4 4.9 6.2 6.9 1.0 1.0 0.9

Cosco Corp 1,344 SGD Sell 0.65 0.76 (24.4) (42.8) 37.0 9.3 11.0 10.2 16.1 28.1 20.5 1.3 1.3 1.2

Ezion 1,721 SGD Buy 2.56 2.26 17.2 82.4 38.5 27.4 11.6 8.0 19.0 10.4 7.5 3.0 2.2 1.7

Vard 727 SGD Hold 0.95 0.78 (43.7) (47.5) 76.2 4.3 7.2 4.9 4.7 9..0 5.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 19.2 15.6 15.7 3.6 4.2 4.221.3 23.0 24.1 2.5 3.4 3.421.6 16.3 11.7 5.4 6.0 6.06.7 5.7 6.3 2.6 1.3 2.024.0 21.0 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.015.0 17.7 20.0 16.7 3.8 6.4

Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
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ozone2002
Supreme
30-Jul-2013 13:34     
 
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check out the comparison of the O& M stocks..Vard is the cheapest of the lot.. gd luck dyodd

Figure 1: Singapore Offshore & Marine sector coverage stocks

Mkt Cap Tgt Last EPS Growth (%) EV/EBITDA (X) P/E (X) P/B (X) ROE (%) Div Yield (%)

(US$m) Curr Rec Price Price FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F FY12 FY13F FY14F

Keppel Corp 14,863 SGD Buy 12.12 10.44 14.1 (34.3) 9.9 10.0 12.6 11.5 8.3 12.7 11.5 2.0 1.9 1.8

Sembcorp Marine 7,379 SGD Buy 5.20 4.45 (28.6) 13.1 18.8 12.7 9.9 8.5 17.3 15.3 12.9 3.8 3.3 2.9

Yangzijiang 2,785 SGD Hold 0.93 0.92 (9.9) (20.8) (9.5) 3.7 3.9 4.4 4.9 6.2 6.9 1.0 1.0 0.9

Cosco Corp 1,344 SGD Sell 0.65 0.76 (24.4) (42.8) 37.0 9.3 11.0 10.2 16.1 28.1 20.5 1.3 1.3 1.2

Ezion 1,721 SGD Buy 2.56 2.26 17.2 82.4 38.5 27.4 11.6 8.0 19.0 10.4 7.5 3.0 2.2 1.7

Vard 727 SGD Hold 0.95 0.78 (43.7) (47.5) 76.2 4.3 7.2 4.9 4.7 9..0 5.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 19.2 15.6 15.7 3.6 4.2 4.221.3 23.0 24.1 2.5 3.4 3.421.6 16.3 11.7 5.4 6.0 6.06.7 5.7 6.3 2.6 1.3 2.024.0 21.0 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.015.0 17.7 20.0 16.7 3.8 6.4

Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE

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SFGuyRuleZ
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30-Jul-2013 07:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yeap I agree.. Not implying anything also. Just thought of correcting myself what I have posted last time and sharing how I derive at my own target price for now, that's all.. Cheers!! =)

jomini      ( Date: 30-Jul-2013 07:26) Posted:



caveat that dcf, or any form of fundamental analysis  is very subjective.

gotta bear in mind old caveat too. mkts can stay irrational longer than u can stay solvent.

no pos

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 29-Jul-2013 21:54) Posted:



Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield.

Therefore, for Vard now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run:

Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.46.

retained earnings/ share = 0.45.

My fair value/ share for Vard now = 0.92.

Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =)
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jomini
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30-Jul-2013 07:26     
 
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caveat that dcf, or any form of fundamental analysis  is very subjective.

gotta bear in mind old caveat too. mkts can stay irrational longer than u can stay solvent.

no pos

SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 29-Jul-2013 21:54) Posted:



Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield.

Therefore, for Vard now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run:

Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.46.

retained earnings/ share = 0.45.

My fair value/ share for Vard now = 0.92.

Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =)


SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 11:02) Posted:



Based on first half results 2013 for now,

net book value (excluding intangible assets)/ share   = 0.56

DCF valuation based on discount factor 0.12 and assume no growth (positive or negative), letting g = 0, intrinsic value/ share  ~= 0.46.

Fair value / Target Price = ?? (You decide..)

 

SFGuyRuleZ's target price for now = 0.89.

Jacelin84's target price = 0.69.

Hawkeye's target price = 0.5

Market's target price = ????????

Cheers!!
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SFGuyRuleZ
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29-Jul-2013 21:54     
 
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Recently consulted a few of my friends working in finance line and asked them about Discounted Cash Flow Valuation (DCF) and fair value. From what I understood, for a stock that is highly liquid and with high volume, retained earnings/share can be added to DCF to obtain a fair value, provided the business is on-going in the long run. As for how discount factor is obtained, it varies differently for different people but from my experiences accumulated over the years, 0.12 is a rather good discount factor I use (taking into account risk-free rate, risk premium and inflation rate) often for companies below $5billion market capitalization and with relatively good current ratio, acid-test ratio and debt to equity ratio. For STI-listed and stable companies with low debt and high cash flow (e.g Keppel and ST Engineering), I realise a discount factor of 0.06 or less is used, which is reasonable as low risk => low yield.

Therefore, for Vard now based on current results and assume current earnings are at least maintained and taking into account no growth (positive or negative), and that business is on-going in the long run:

Based on discount factor 0.12 and g = 0, DCF/ share ~= 0.46.

retained earnings/ share = 0.45.

My fair value/ share for Vard now = 0.92.

Hope I clear any misunderstanding if any.. =)


SFGuyRuleZ      ( Date: 25-Jul-2013 11:02) Posted:



Based on first half results 2013 for now,

net book value (excluding intangible assets)/ share   = 0.56

DCF valuation based on discount factor 0.12 and assume no growth (positive or negative), letting g = 0, intrinsic value/ share  ~= 0.46.

Fair value / Target Price = ?? (You decide..)

 

SFGuyRuleZ's target price for now = 0.89.

Jacelin84's target price = 0.69.

Hawkeye's target price = 0.5

Market's target price = ????????

Cheers!!
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Peter_Pan
Supreme
29-Jul-2013 19:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Aiyo... bery huanny hor
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fu6790g
Member
29-Jul-2013 19:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		stx pan ocean have lots of debt due to bad performance, they have already apply chapter 15 under US bankruptcy code, that is why from 6++ to now only 2 ++Good luck........................


Simpsons      ( Date: 29-Jul-2013 15:03) Posted:

Is stx po the former owner for vard? Noticed that their share price kept going up..
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Simpsons
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29-Jul-2013 15:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good one..lol
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Octavia
Elite
29-Jul-2013 15:54     
 
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Saint Peter, just for laugh.Pls dont wait for too long har.lol

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Peter_Pan
Supreme
29-Jul-2013 15:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hahaha!!! Now only thing left to do is WAIT!!!!!!
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Peter_Pan
Supreme
29-Jul-2013 15:43     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Finally finished at 0.775...long wait.
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Simpsons
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29-Jul-2013 15:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Is stx po the former owner for vard? Noticed that their share price kept going up..
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pineapple123
Member
29-Jul-2013 14:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		what makes you say multiple contract wins coming?your wishing or???
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Peter_Pan
Supreme
29-Jul-2013 14:14     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Price coming down now
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Peter_Pan
Supreme
29-Jul-2013 13:11     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Multiple contract wins coming!!! HUAT AHHH!!!!!
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