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sandbox Senior	27-Jun-2006 10:18        sandbox About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	wonder why there is no movement in this counter today....  anyone care to shed some light? Thanks.
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BullRun Elite	27-Jun-2006 08:56        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 3  Alert Admin	One of the reason why I stick to FA is to avoid running into bubble like the internet bubble that happened in year 2000.  I always asked myself what will happen to the company in 3 to 5 years time. I will avoid investing my money into those companies that I couldn't even paint a beautiful picture myself! To decouple rubeer prices & GMG will be a big mistake. It had been around for more around 7 years and if you had been following this company for the last 7 years, you will know that the performance of the company correlate very closely to rubber price! There are risk in investing in stock market, I see having operation in Africa as an advantage. After Asia, Africa may be the next high growth region. To find the gem in stock market is not easy, it involve taking risk. Golden Agri is a good example that I bought 5 years back at around 14c. It hit recently as high as 70c. Back then, ppl also asked me to avoid that company and put my money into company that give good returns like ACCS!
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HenryAng570 Member	27-Jun-2006 08:37        HenryAng570 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Juz to share a perspective. When I started investing, the so called gurus  or fund managers said internet and telephony is the way. Why? every home would have PCs / internet. Everyone would have phones - 3G. They are "basic necessity." I believe in them.  And my total losses investing in TMT (Telephone, Media & Technology) amount to more than 50K..... All of us would agree that rubber prices is up.  But I think we need to decouple between rubber prices & GMG.   Is GMG as a Co, lacking the following charateristics: financial strength, (technically is insolvent - unable to repay loan when due) no track record of giving out dividends, (not that I know off) and operating in Africa - a region known to be trouble prone able to deliver? Or are we better off exploring other Cos  that are also producing rubber with good financial strength? Or better still, put our money in Co known to have good performance records, give good returns to shareholders like SP Ships as highlighted by Shplayer ....... So that we can sleep soundly  known that our money is in "fairly" save hands. This is juz my viewpoint.
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singaporegal Supreme	26-Jun-2006 22:21        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 2   x 2  Alert Admin	I once attending a talk by a stock guru. This is what he said and I think it makes alot of sense - The world's population is only going to increase and increase. Because the basic needs of human beings are Food, Shelter, Energy and Water, the long term prospects for industries provides such needs are bound to grow with the world's population.
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Stockking Master	26-Jun-2006 22:14        Stockking About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 3  Alert Admin	In my research, I find these interesting and would like to share here.... "The accelerating demand for rubber from China's fast developing automobile industry has also created "a boom" for rubber industries in neighboring countries.......................................................................... China and India have a combined population of 2.3 billion people, about 37% of the world's population. A $100 increase in the per capita income of these two countries (representing a 10% rise in China and 20% for India) would translate into about $230 billion in additional demand for commodities. " If this is true, does that means that commondities price is only going to go up and not reture to their low level seen few years back unless their is another crisis?
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BullRun Elite	26-Jun-2006 17:13        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	DAY 22 23 26 Price 12444 12588 12588 NR price remain stable. Look like it is going to close June at current strong price!
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BullRun Elite	23-Jun-2006 22:52        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	"I don't expect a crash. The possibility of prices rising is still there and we will see much higher prices during June and July," .........................this is what the expert said in March. As we approach the end of June, NR price really  get higher and stronger.  Hopefully will move higher in July!!
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Stockking Master	23-Jun-2006 19:47        Stockking About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 3  Alert Admin	May be somewhere between 1.5c to 2.5c is realistic. How about 2c for FY06? The RSS-1 showed  $4380/tons, am I right? Does that means that NR price is around $4380 today, if that is true then it will be about $2000 higher than GMG last year  average selling price!! Can someone advise?
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BullRun Elite	23-Jun-2006 17:18        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	Rubber Price as on 23/6/2006 per 100 Kg BANGKOK CATEGORY IN RS IN USD Price Change Price Change RSS-1 12,726.00 +144.00 275.95 +2.41 Another good week for NR! Closed stronger.
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shplayer Elite	23-Jun-2006 16:28        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Bullrun, At an ave SP of $3500, it adds another 1.0cts to the eps i.e about 2.5cts...... Like I said, I like to be more conservative in my cals...So, for GMG, even with the conservative numbers ($3000/MT), the eps, PE looks attractive. At 9.0cts, the PE is 6.0x......which is good. At $3500/MT, PE is 3.6x....even better.
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BullRun Elite	23-Jun-2006 13:46        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	shplayer, It is good to be conservative. Investors and analysts don't like surprises! When GMG made the announce of their full year result (dated 1st of March), it was already mentioned that the average sell price then was US$1850-(about $2900). The current price is around $3600. I supposed the average should be slightly higher than $3000 but not $3500 (for the first half) that I used. I chosen $3500 because NR price may continue the uptrend to break $4000 and also GMG sale in the first half was only 18K tons and 2nd half was 26 tons that will enable them to benefit from the higher NR price during the 2nd half of the year. I'm more interested to forecast GMG performance over the next 12 months, ie starting July 06 to June 07. The will reflec the potential better. With NR price heading towadrs $4000/ton, the next 12 months look extremely good. If I look at that angle and the PE 9 that you had forecasted GMG looks very attractive!
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shplayer Elite	23-Jun-2006 11:39        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Bullrun In my est, I took a more conservative $3000 per MT ave SP. COS was $1450 per MT. For Admin and Other Opn Exp, I increased accordingly from the FY04 to 05 trend. Distr and Financing cost was increased by 20% and 35% respectively. ITX was also increased due to higher profit. Then I approtioned Net profit due to shareholders and minority interests according to FY05....I got fcst FY06 eps 1.46cts. I know its abit conservative...but I like to leave some bullets in the pocket. With a conservative FA, if the numbers still look good, then I vest.....and in a markt turmoil, I can still sleep well.
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Seadeucer Member	23-Jun-2006 11:33        Seadeucer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	GMG Last Done 9.5c Some other forums automatically show the last done price of the equity when a comment is posted. I suggest we manually do the same at the start of the message, so anyone tracking the topic will be able to relate what has been said to the price of the share, when the comment was made.
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sandbox Senior	23-Jun-2006 09:09        sandbox About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi BullRun, I share the view of shplayer and therefore not going to chase the price but have fixed my entry level. Thanks for all your inputs.  It has been very informative and allows good discussions and thoughts. Cheers.
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BullRun Elite	22-Jun-2006 22:52        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	shplayer, Thanks for sharing. I guess I may be too optimistic. I used extrapolation to come out with the EPS of 2.5c. GMG made 12.5m last year with an EPS of 0.53. Current NR price is around $3800. I assumed NR to stay above $3600 for the rest if the year (though it might go higher....near recorded high again today). Assume the whole year avergae selling price of $3500 VS last year $2300. Assume all other cost remain constant. GMG profit should be 12.5+(3500-2300)*44000=64.8m.  So, EPS=(64.8/12.5)*0.53=2.74c. I rounded it down to 2.5c! The estimation depend a lot at the price of NR and how GMG manage to take advantage of the situation.  Assuming my estimation of the average is too high cause the first 3 months of this year NR price is only about $2800, EPS of 2.5c should be reasonable for FY07 and that will translate to a PE of only 3.6!!
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shplayer Elite	22-Jun-2006 22:14        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Unable to give myself rating...so looks like someone else have to do it for me....
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shplayer Elite	22-Jun-2006 22:12        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Sorry, something hung with my comp and I inadvertently sent the same msg multiple times. Will give myself BAD posts to neutralise the points.
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shplayer Elite	22-Jun-2006 22:06        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 1  Alert Admin	Bullrun, I rehashed the P&L using certain assumptions.....and taking a conservative view on some of the expenses (distribution costs, finance costs), I got an eps of just under 1.5cts. At 9.0cts per share, this works out to a PE of 6.0. With the potential strengthening of rubber prices, this looks attractive. I will be looking at taking some position at a price I am comfortable with....but will not chase prices. I will review whether to take a bigger position after 1H FY06 is out or when there is further news of their overdue loan.
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shplayer Elite	22-Jun-2006 22:05        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 2  Alert Admin	Bullrun, I rehashed the P&L using certain assumptions.....and taking a conservative view on some of the expenses (distribution costs, finance costs), I got an eps of just under 1.5cts. At 9.0cts per share, this works out to a PE of 6.0. With the potential strengthening of rubber prices, this looks attractive. I will be looking at taking some position at a price I am comfortable with....but will not chase prices. I will review whether to take a bigger position after 1H FY06 is out or when there is further news of their overdue loan.
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BullRun Elite	22-Jun-2006 19:30        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 2  Alert Admin	sandbox, I shared my forecast with my friend that GMG will be able to deliver very good result this year but many are sceptical about it. It estimate EPS of 2c for 06 and 3c for 07 assuming rubber price maintain above $3600/tons.  Do u think this is reasonable? Can share your analysis with us?
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