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lookcc
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16-Sep-2009 21:05
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cpi 0.4% [forecast 0.3%] n core cpi 0.1% [in line with forecast].
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smartrader
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16-Sep-2009 21:00
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Inflation report out ? | ||||
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dealer0168
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16-Sep-2009 19:24
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Global Confidence Maintains Record High on Signs Recession Over By Shamim Adam Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence in the world economy held at a record high in September after reports suggested the recession is over and officials said they won’t rush to withdraw stimulus, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed. The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index rose to 58.54 this month from 58.12 in August. The index exceeded 50 for a second month, which means optimists outnumbered pessimists. Measures of confidence in France and Germany surged after their economies unexpectedly returned to growth last quarter. The world is emerging from the deepest recession since the 1930s after more than $2 trillion of infrastructure projects, tax breaks and government spending, and interest rates near zero averted a spiral into another Great Depression. The pace of the rebound may be tempered by rising unemployment, which the White House predicts will surpass 10 percent next year in the U.S. “Now we have to see if the increase in confidence is matched by actual growth,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, and a survey participant. “The recovery is still fragile.” The survey of more than 1,800 Bloomberg users was conducted between Sept. 7 and Sept. 11. Since the previous survey, President Barack Obama signaled the U.S. economy is expanding again and the European Central Bank raised its growth forecasts. Finance ministers from the Group of 20 also committed to continuing emergency measures to help strengthen the recovery. U.S. Recession Over The Federal Reserve last week said 11 of its 12 regional banks reported signs of a stable or improving economy in July and August. A measure of U.S. participants’ confidence in the world’s largest economy was unchanged at 47.3, the survey showed, after jumping from 29.5 the previous month. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said the U.S. recession has probably ended even as he warned the expansion may not be strong enough to immediately bring down unemployment. Policy makers last month left the key interest rate between zero and 0.25 percent and said economic conditions mean the rate will stay “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” In Europe, where companies such as ASML Holding NV, the region’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, are raising sales forecasts, officials have signaled they will keep stimulus measures to ensure the economy is back on a more stable footing. Deterioration Potential ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet this month said the euro region’s recovery from recession will be “bumpy.” He viewed current interest rates, at the lowest level since the ECB took charge of rate policy in 1999, as “appropriate.” The confidence gauge for western Europe rose to 43.2 from 41.1. “Policy makers need to be careful not to withdraw support too quickly,” said Guy LeBas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “There’s potential for conditions to deteriorate,” he added. Sentiment dropped the most in Spain, where unemployment is approaching 20 percent, the highest level in Europe. Spain’s economy contracted for a fifth quarter in the three months to June, and inflation is slowing more sharply than in the euro region overall. Spain’s index fell to 14.5 from 24.7. Confidence rose the most in the Latin American region this month, with its index advancing to 65.5 from 57.6 in August. Brazil, the region’s biggest economy, emerged from recession last quarter amid rising domestic demand, and its Bovespa stock index has doubled this year. Brazil’s confidence measure rose to 88.2 from 80.6, the survey showed. Frontrunners “Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America will continue to be the frontrunners of global economic growth,” said Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “Commodity prices are rising and that will help lift the economies.” Sentiment fell in Japan, where elections last month resulted in a victory for the Democratic Party of Japan as it ousted the party that ruled the nation for all but 10 months since 1955. The gauge for Japan fell to 48.8 from 50, while that of Asia slipped to 73.6 from 74.2. Bloomberg users were less optimistic on the outlook for their equity markets in the next six months amid concern gains may not be sustained. The global equity rally has added about $17.5 trillion to the value of stocks worldwide since this year’s low on March 9. Respondents in Japan and the U.S. expect shares to decline, while those in the U.K. and Brazil predict their markets will extend their advances. “Stock markets have become extremely frothy, people think equity prices are a little ahead of the world economic recovery,” Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said. “It’s a natural place to pause and take stock.” Dollar Pessimism The U.S. dollar may weaken further in the next six months against the world’s most actively traded currencies, with sentiment at an 18-month low. Gold prices exceeded $1,000 an ounce this month as the dollar declined, bolstering demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. The dollar confidence index fell to 30.8 from 38.8 in August. Users in Japan expect the yen to strengthen against the dollar, with the index rising to 62.1 from 50.3. Most respondents in western Europe are less optimistic on the euro’s appreciation against its U.S. counterpart. Survey participants in Japan and some western European nations are also less confident short-term interest rates will rise in the next six months, the survey showed. The Australian central bank this month said it was seeking to avoid “prematurely tightening” monetary policy after leaving rates unchanged for a fifth meeting. “It’s very sensible on the part of officials to keep policies loose, and it will probably stay that way for an extended period of time,” Hui of Standard Chartered said. “Any inflationary threat is still a long way away and economies need all the help they can get.” |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 18:36
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Stocks, Commodities Climb on Bernanke, Buffett; Dollar Declines By Daniel Hauck Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks climbed around the world and commodities advanced as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke indicated the recession is over and billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he’s buying equities. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares climbed 1 percent to an 11-month high at 10:15 a.m. in London. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.4 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose as much as 1.7 percent, more than doubling from a four-year low in October 2008. Lead rose for a third day on the London Metal Exchange and copper added 1.4 percent. The dollar fell against all but three of the 16 most- traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Bernanke said yesterday that “the recession is very likely over,” while Buffett said the economy is responding to government stimulus measures. The Group of 20 nations has committed about $12 trillion to reviving growth. Figures today are likely to show U.S. inflation remains subdued and that the housing market is improving. “The bigger and uglier the bear market, usually the bigger the V,” Kenneth Fisher, who manages $28 billion as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, said in an interview. “A normal V-shaped recovery lasts one year, and the current rally started in March.” Dollar Index The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. currency against its major trading partners, dropped to the lowest level since Sept. 23, 2008, as signs the world’s biggest economy is emerging from recession prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets. A report today may show the Fed’s measure of U.S. industrial production rose 0.6 percent last month, the most since October, according to the median of 75 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations has climbed 64 percent since March 9 as the Fed kept its target rate for overnight lending between banks at near zero to unlock credit markets after the bankruptcy of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. a year ago. The MSCI World climbed 0.9 percent today, led by companies dependent on consumer spending and raw-material producers. The global gauge trades at 27.3 times the earnings of its 1,659 companies, the most expensive level since 2003. Inditex SA rose 3.9 percent in Madrid as Europe’s largest clothing retailer reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, added 2.7 percent as copper, lead and nickel climbed in London. Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced to the highest level in more than a year. South Korea’s Kospi index led the advance among Asian developing nations, rising 1.8 percent as exporters including Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. rallied. Indonesia’s rupiah climbed 1.2 percent to the highest level in 11 months and the government’s benchmark 10- year notes gained after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating. Hungary’s BUX index added 3 percent for the biggest rally among benchmark equity indexes worldwide. Metals advanced in London. Lead, used mainly in auto batteries, climbed 1.8 percent to $2,221 a metric ton. Platinum and palladium rallied to one-year highs of $1,342.50 and $299.75 an ounce respectively on speculation vehicle-scrapping programs in the U.S. and Europe will revive car demand. Automakers account for about 60 percent of platinum and palladium use. Treasuries Rise Treasuries rose for the first time in three days, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note falling 4 basis points to 3.42 percent, as the absence of inflation in the U.S. economy encouraged investors to buy fixed-income securities. Consumer prices declined 1.7 percent in August from a year earlier, almost the biggest drop since 1950, the Labor Department will say today, according to the median of 38 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. U.K. government bonds advanced, sending the yield on the two-year gilt 3 basis points lower to 0.72 percent, the lowest level since at least 1992, after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said yesterday policy makers are considering cutting the rate paid to financial institutions on deposits at the central bank. To contact the reporters on this story: Daniel Hauck in London at dhauck1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 16, 2009 05:18 EDT |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 15:06
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European Stock-Index Futures, Asian Shares Rise; BHP Advances By Adam Haigh Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- European stock-index futures advanced and Asian shares rallied as billionaire investor Warren Buffett said his company is buying equities and higher commodity prices lifted raw-material producers. U.S. futures gained. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, increased 2 percent in Sydney as copper, lead and nickel climbed on the London Metal Exchange. KBC Group NV may rise after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying shares of the Belgian bank. Inditex SA will probably gain after first-half net income at Europe’s largest clothing retailer beat analysts’ estimates. Futures on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index added 0.6 percent at 7:23 a.m. in London. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index is set to open 25 points higher, according to inter-dealer broker BGC Partners. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 1.5 percent. Europe’s Stoxx 600 has rallied 53 percent since March 9 as earnings at companies from Goldman Sachs to Roche Holding AG topped estimates and the German and French economies unexpectedly exited recessions. The measure has risen eight times in the last nine days. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December added 0.2 percent after earlier falling 0.1 percent. The gauge increased 0.3 percent yesterday after a government report showed retail sales excluding automobiles gained 1.1 percent last month, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its general economic index rose to 18.9 in September. Both reports surpassed economist estimates. Bernanke, Buffett Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who yesterday said the recession has likely ended, may have to accept a slow recovery and high unemployment as the price for defending his inflation-fighting credentials. “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Bernanke said in response to questions after a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “That’s a challenge for us and all policy makers going forward.” Buffett told a conference in California yesterday that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a broadcast to Tokyo clients of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. today that he’s concerned that lawmakers will hamper U.S. central bank efforts to rein in its monetary stimulus, and that inflation might “swamp” the bond market. BHP Billiton added 2 percent to A$39. Copper climbed for a second day in London, rising 1.4 percent. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 2 percent to A$60.18. KBC, Inditex KBC may advance. Goldman Sachs rated the shares “buy” in new coverage and placed them on its “conviction buy” list. Inditex will probably rise. Net income fell 7.6 percent to 375 million euros ($550 million) in the six months through July, beating the 349.5 million-euro average estimate of six analysts compiled by Bloomberg. To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 16, 2009 02:25 EDT |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 14:45
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Asian Stocks Rise Most in Three Weeks on Growth Speculation By Shani Raja and Ian C. Sayson Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, giving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index its largest gain in three weeks, after U.S. retail sales and New York manufacturing reports beat estimates and commodity prices advanced. Canon Inc., which gets 28 percent of its revenue in the Americas, climbed 4.8 percent in Tokyo as Nomura Holdings Inc. recommended buying the shares. National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation’s largest by assets, rose 2.8 percent, as an index of the country’s leading economic indicators climbed. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, gained 1.7 percent after metal prices rose for the first time in five days. “Asia and other emerging markets have strong domestic economies that will benefit further from a global recovery,” said Paul Joseph Garcia, who helps manage about $1.45 billion as chief investment officer at the Philippine unit of ING Investment Management Ltd. “Trade will pick up and that’s good for Asia’s export-oriented industries.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.6 percent to 117.69 as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo, the biggest advance since Aug. 24. The gauge has climbed 67 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 as stimulus measures around the world pulled economies out of recession. Stocks on the gauge are priced at an average 24 times estimated earnings, up from 15 times at the March low. South Korea’s Kospi Index advanced 2.2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1.8 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 2.2 percent with Telstra Corp. surging 3.9 percent on optimism it will get access to a new national Internet network. Nippon Steel, Halex Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3 percent. Nippon Steel Corp. gained 3 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. rated the stock “overweight.” In Kuala Lumpur, Halex Holdings Bhd., an agricultural chemicals manufacturer, surged 26 percent on debut. China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.7 percent as government data showed investors opened fewer trading accounts. Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The gauge increased 0.3 percent yesterday after a government report showed retail sales excluding automobiles gained 1.1 percent last month, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its general economic index rose to 18.9 in September. Both reports surpassed economist estimates. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said yesterday his company is buying equities, while Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. recession is “very likely” over. Canon, which makes digital cameras and office equipment, climbed 4.8 percent to 3,720 yen as Nomura raised its rating on the stock to “buy.” Sony Corp., which gets 24 percent of its revenue in the U.S., gained 3.3 percent to 2,500 yen. Li & Fung Ltd., the biggest supplier of clothes and toys to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp., climbed 3.1 percent to HK$28.30. ‘It Looks Good’ “The next six months seem reasonably easy to anticipate: no inflation, good economic growth,” Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a broadcast to Tokyo clients of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. today. “It looks good for the near term.” A gauge of Australian leading indicators, which focuses on future economic growth, gained 1.1 percent to 248.5 points in July from June as shares and dwelling approvals climbed, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute said in Sydney today. The index shrank at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent in July after contracting 4.6 percent the previous month. National Australia Bank added 2.8 percent to A$28.95. Rival Commonwealth Bank of Australia advanced 3.5 percent to A$48.13. Telstra, the nation’s biggest telephone company, gained 3.9 percent to A$3.23. Stephen Conroy, the country’s communications minister, told national radio the government may give Telstra a stake in its Internet network. Improving Data The company’s shares fell 3.2 percent yesterday after Conroy said Telstra must separate its fixed-line assets from its consumer business or face curbs on mobile-services expansion. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s six-month rally has been driven by better-than-estimated economic reports and corporate earnings. Of 645 companies on the gauge that reported net income for the latest quarter, 225 beat analyst predictions, compared with 138 that missed. China’s statistics bureau last week reported a greater- than-estimated surge in August industrial production, while a Westpac and Melbourne Institute survey last week showed Australian consumer confidence jumped this month to the highest level in more than two years. “We expect markets to rise,” said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage about $1.2 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. “Markets typically climb walls of worry.” Oil, Metals Prices BHP added 1.7 percent to A$38.91 after a measure of six metals in London advanced 1.1 percent, rising for the first time in five sessions. Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, gained 1.7 percent to A$59.99. Oil producers rose after futures of the raw material climbed 3 percent to $70.93 a barrel in New York yesterday, the biggest increase since Sept. 8. Inpex Corp., Japan’s largest oil explorer, climbed 2.3 percent to 796,000 yen, while PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil producer, gained 2 percent to HK$9.16. Nippon Steel gained 3 percent to 348 yen, while JFE Holdings Inc. rose 2.2 percent to 3,270 yen after JPMorgan rated both companies “overweight” in new coverage. Smaller rival Kobe Steel Ltd., which was rated “neutral,” added 1.2 percent to 163 yen. Gold producers rallied after the precious metal closed above $1,000 an ounce for the third-straight day Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, advanced 3.1 percent to A$34.50. Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s largest bullion producer, rose 2.3 percent to HK$7.73 in Hong Kong. Halex Holdings jumped 26 percent to 98.5 sen on its first day of trading on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange. The company sold shares at 78 sen in its initial share sale. To contact the reporters on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net; Ian C. Sayson in Manila at isayson@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 16, 2009 00:37 EDT |
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Kassanne
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16-Sep-2009 10:45
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Shanghai down by 68 points (2.16%). It seems to take opp trend from Dow Jone?? | ||||
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 10:43
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Fisher Sees V-Shaped Recovery for Global Stocks, Led by China
2009-09-15 22:16:10.42 GMT By Tian Huang and Catarina Saraiva Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks are in the middle of a "V-shaped recovery," led by emerging markets, that will last for at least another six months, billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher said. "The bigger and uglier the bear market, usually the bigger the V," Fisher, who manages $28 billion as chief executive officer of Fisher Investments Inc. in Woodside, California, said in an interview in New York. "A normal V-shaped recovery lasts one year, and the current rally started in March." The MSCI AC World Index, which includes both emerging and developed market stocks, has rallied 65 percent since reaching a six-year low on March 9. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has surged 56 percent over the same period. The Shanghai Composite Index, the best performing benchmark measure globally a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., has risen 43 percent. Fisher predicts Chinese stocks will lead the bull market in global equities, as a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and record lending spurs growth in the world's third- largest economy. Economists anticipate China's gross domestic product growth will accelerate to 9.5 percent next year from 8.3 percent in 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted the week ended Aug. 28. "It's perfectly justified why China has been the best performing market since the Lehman collapse," Fisher said. "It has a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus behind it. China is the driver of the V." Fisher has an "overweight" allocation for Chinese, Brazilian and Indian stocks. He downgraded Russian equities to "underweight" this month, saying gains of more than 90 percent for the country's stock indexes this year have made them expensive. For Related News and Information: Top stories in emerging markets: TOP EM <GO> Stories on ADR share moves: TNI ADR MOV <GO> Stories on China stocks: NI CHS <GO> --Editors: Allen Wan, Kara Wetzel To contact the reporters on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at +212-617-2300 or Asaraiva5@bloomberg.net; To contact the reporters on this story: Tian Huang in New York at +1-212-617-2703 or thuang57@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or Papadopoulos@bloomberg.net |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 10:28
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Blastoff
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16-Sep-2009 07:23
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Stocks at new 2009 highsWall Street advances as investors welcome Bernanke's comments and retail sales report.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Major stock indexes ended at their highest points of the year Tuesday after a stronger-than-expected retail sales report and comments from Fed chief Ben Bernanke helped offset concerns that the rally has outpaced the recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 57 points, or 0.6%, ending at its highest point since last Oct. 6. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 3 points, or 0.3%, ending at its highest point since Oct. 6. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) climbed 11 points, or 0.5%, and closed at its highest point since Sept. 26. Stocks churned in the morning but managed some gains in the afternoon as investors digested comments from Fed chief Ben Bernanke that the recession is "very likely over." Financial, industrial and select commodity stocks led the advance, including Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500). Other than a little selling in the first few days of September, stocks have been extending the 2009 run. "I think what we're seeing is continued evidence of anxiety about all the cash on the sidelines missing the early stages of a bull market," said Hank Smith, chief investment officer of equity at Haverford Trust. He said that this factor was bringing buyers in at the dips and was likely to keep doing so in the weeks ahead. Stocks managed gains Monday, but they were slight as investors continued to worry that the economic recovery was trailing the market surge. "I think we can continue to move higher through year end, but I don't think we can do it with second-tier leadership like Citigroup and AIG," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager, National Penn Investors Trust. He said high-quality companies with strong balance sheets need to take the lead. The Consumer Price index, a measure of consumer inflation, is due Wednesday morning. CPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in August after showing no change in July. The so-called core CPI is expected to have risen 0.1% after rising 0.1% in July. August capacity utilization and industrial production are also due in the morning, along with the weekly oil inventory report. Bernanke: Speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington, Bernanke said the recession is "very likely over," but that the pace of the recovery will be moderate next year and that it will still feel like a weak economy for some time. While the Fed chairman's comments were essentially a retread of another recent speech, they appeared to give the markets a lift. Retail sales: August retail sales rose 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported, reflecting the impact of the government's Cash for Clunkers auto stimulus program. Even without auto sales, the retail numbers were strong, suggesting consumer sentiment is improving. The rise surprised economists who were looking for an advance of 1.9%, according to Briefing.com. Other economic news: The Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 1.7% in August after falling 0.9% in July. Economists thought it would rise 0.8%. The so-called Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% after falling 0.1% in July. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%. The Empire State index, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 18.8 in September, topping forecasts for a rise to 15. The index stood at 12 in August. July business inventories fell 1% after falling 1.1% previously. Economists thought it would fall 0.9%. Company news: Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) wants Treasury to sell off part of its roughly 34% stake in the financial firm, according to published reports. Citi is also looking to issue new shares to the public as part of a multibillion-dollar stock offering. Since the collapse of Lehman Bros. last year, the government has poured $45 billion into the firm and agreed to share losses on a big piece of the bank's bad assets. Citi shares fell 9% Tuesday. Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that missed analysts' forecasts on higher revenue. The company also said that sales at stores open a year or more fell 3.9% in the fiscal second quarter. The company's forecast was mixed. Best Buy lifted its fiscal 2010 earnings outlook to a range of $2.70 to $3 per share, but that means the midpoint of $2.75 is short of analysts' current forecast for earnings of $2.76 per share. The electronics retailer also said it expects total revenue of $48 billion to $49 billion, versus analysts' forecasts for $47.8 billion. Best Buy shares fell 5%. One year later: Tuesday marked the first anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the shotgun wedding buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America -- events widely seen as the accelerant that pushed the recession into a full-blown crisis. On that day last year, credit seized and panicked investors dumped financial shares, leading to a broad selloff that sent the Dow plunging 504 points. Stocks were tumultuous through that week but managed to end with only modest declines after a series of government actions. Those included the Federal Reserve saving AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) from bankruptcy and the forming of an early version of the TARP bank bailout plan. But any relief investors felt at the end of that week soon gave out. Stocks plummeted in the six months after the collapse, culminating March 9 with the S&P 500 and Dow bottoming out at 12-year lows and the Nasdaq hitting a more than six-year low. Since March, the Dow has gained 47%, the S&P 500 gained 55% and the Nasdaq composite has gained 65%. Year-over-year, the major indexes are still down, with the Dow and S&P 500 roughly where they stood in early October of last year and the Nasdaq where it stood about a week earlier, in late September. President Obama spoke on Wall Street Monday, urging market pros to rebuild their relationship with the public and make sure that they don't engage again in the kind of behavior that led to the crisis. For a look at what the government has been doing over the last year to manage the crisis, click here. Currency and commodities: The dollar fell versus other major currencies, resuming its decline against the yen and euro. The falling greenback boosted dollar-traded commodities. U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $2.07 to settle at $70.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $5.20 to settle at $1006.30 an ounce. Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.45% from 3.42% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all gained modestly. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei higher and the Hong Kong Hang Seng lower. Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers seven to three on volume of 1.49 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by more than four to three on volume of 2.4 billion shares. 
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iPunter
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16-Sep-2009 05:59
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If the what the writeups (news are nothing but writeups) say is so true, there would not be so much people losing so much money... 
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 02:51
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U.S. Stocks Have ‘A Lot of Room to Run,’ Birinyi Says (Update1) By Sapna Maheshwari and Margaret Brennan Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are in a bull market after rallying as much as 55 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 and have “a lot of room to run,” investor Laszlo Birinyi said. The advance in U.S. equities shows that the longest recession since the 1930s is over, and investors who wait to buy stocks until the National Bureau of Economic Research declares the contraction finished will miss out on gains, Birinyi said. “I don’t know how you could wish for a better set of circumstances,” Birinyi, the founder of Westport, Connecticut- based research and money-management firm Birinyi Associates Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The economy is probably a little bit better than most people are giving credit.” The S&P 500 has rallied for the past six months as economic reports from U.S. home sales to manufacturing in China signaled the global recession is ending. Birinyi recommended buying financial stocks that are “strongly outperforming,” citing Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and American Express Co., which topped analysts’ estimates for adjusted second-quarter profit. Financial stocks in the S&P 500 have climbed 135 percent since March 9, the best performance among 10 industries and 60 percentage points more than industrial shares, the next best-performing industry. An advance in copper prices suggests the economy is recovering, Birinyi said. The metal’s price has doubled this year, driven by record purchases by China in the first half. Birinyi said on May 20 that the S&P 500 would climb to a record 1,700 in the next two or three years, an 88 percent gain from its close that day. The index has rallied 16 percent since. To contact the reporters on this story: Sapna Maheshwari in New York at smaheshwar11@bloomberg.net; Margaret Brennan in New York at mbrennan25@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 15, 2009 12:37 EDT |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 02:50
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U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast, Autos Jump By Timothy R. Homan Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers surged in August by the most in three years, showing unexpected strength in consumer demand that extended beyond auto purchases spurred by the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” program. The 2.7 percent increase exceeded economists’ forecasts and followed a 0.2 percent drop in July, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles climbed 1.1 percent, topping the highest forecast. Treasuries declined as the report eased investor concerns that consumers will make a limited contribution to the recovery, leaving the economy dependent on government spending a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Morgan Stanley was among banks and investment firms raising forecasts for third-quarter economic growth after the report. “The most remarkable thing is it wasn’t all cash-for- clunkers,” said Robert Stein, a senior economist at First Trust Advisors LP in Lisle, Illinois, who forecast a gain of 2.9 percent. “The consumer is in recovery and the U.S. economy is in recovery.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.43 percent at 11:35 a.m. in New York. It climbed as high as 3.49 immediately after the report. Separate reports today signaled manufacturers will help the economy pull out of the worst slump since the Great Depression as they ramp up production after a record inventory drawdown in the first half of 2009. Smaller Stockpiles Business inventories declined 1 percent in July, exceeding economists’ forecasts, to $1.33 trillion, the lowest level since March 2006, a Commerce Department report showed today. Sales climbed 0.1 percent after a 1.1 percent gain in June. Manufacturing in the New York region grew in September at the fastest pace in almost two years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The New York Fed’s general economic index increased to 18.9 from 12.1 in August, the bank said today. Retail sales were projected to rise 1.9 percent after an initially reported 0.1 percent decline in July, according to the median estimate of 73 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from gains of 0.8 percent to 3.8 percent. Last month’s gain was the biggest since January 2006. Excluding automobiles, the increase in sales was the biggest in six months. Purchases minus cars were forecast to increase 0.4 percent, according to the survey median. The auto plan, which ended Aug. 24, offered buyers discounts of as much as $4,500 to trade in older cars and trucks. The program prompted almost 700,000 purchases, the Transportation Department said. Jobs Lost The economy has lost about 6.9 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the worst of any downturn since World War II. Gross domestic product contracted at a 1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive drop. President Barack Obama yesterday said job losses are “bottoming out” and pointed to gains in exports and manufacturing as signs the U.S. economy is expanding again. “I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet,” Obama said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “What we have to be careful about is taking the crutches away from the patient too early.” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke added to the note of caution as he answered questions today following a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Bernanke “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” he said. Economists also warned that stagnant wages and a loss of wealth resulting from the drop in home prices will probably restrain consumer spending in the months to come. “All the reasons for concern about consumer spending are still out there,” said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm. “If there is any sign of resilience in September, that will be very encouraging.” Sales at automobile dealerships and parts stores jumped 11 percent, today’s report showed, the most since October 2001 when carmakers such as General Motors Corp. offered zero- percent financing to spur sales following the terrorist attacks the previous month. Service stations, clothing, sporting goods and department stores all recorded gains of more than 2 percent last month, today’s report showed. Only furniture and building-material stores showed losses. GDP Measure Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials -- the retail group the government uses to calculate gross domestic product figures for consumer spending -- sales increased 0.7 percent, after a 0.3 percent decrease. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded. “This is a sign that consumers are beginning to feel a little more comfortable about the economy,” Rebecca Blank, Commerce undersecretary for economic affairs, said in an interview. “I wouldn’t want to say that we are solidly there yet. We need several more months of these types of numbers.” Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is projected to grow at a 1.7 percent pace from July through September and then slow to 1 percent in the last three months of the year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News. Purchases rose at an average 3.5 percent pace in the decade before the current recession began in December 2007. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their estimate for third-quarter growth to 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent after the sales report. Beige Book In the Fed’s Beige Book business survey, published two weeks before officials meet to set monetary policy, the central bank reported “flat” retail sales in July and August and cited some auto-industry contacts as saying the cash-for- clunkers effect may be temporary. The Fed released the survey on Sept. 9. “Despite some encouraging signs in the global economy, it is difficult to predict the timing and pace of any economic recovery,” Alan Graf, chief financial officer for FedEx Corp., said last week in a statement. FedEx, the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, said first-quarter profit topped its forecast. FedEx and larger rival United Parcel Service Inc. are considered proxies for the U.S. economy because they handle almost 80 percent of domestic package shipments. To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 15, 2009 11:48 EDT |
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richtan
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16-Sep-2009 02:50
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Bernanke Says U.S. Recession ‘Very Likely’ Has Ended (Update2) By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s has probably ended, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce the unemployment rate. “Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time,” Bernanke said today at the Brookings Institution in Washington, responding to questions after a speech. The remarks are Bernanke’s most explicit statement that the contraction that began in December 2007 is over. They echoed comments yesterday by San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen and followed a report today showing retail sales rose last month by the most in three years, adding to evidence of a recovery. “Unemployment will be slow to come down” if growth turns out to be “moderate” and not much more than the economy’s underlying potential, Bernanke said. The central bank has kept the benchmark lending rate as low as zero since December and in August said “exceptionally low” rates are likely warranted for “an extended period.” The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee also said in its Aug. 12 statement that there were signs that “economic activity is leveling out.” The Fed’s Beige Book report last week said that 11 of its 12 regional banks reported signs of a stable or improving economy in July and August. ‘Wide Array’ Yellen said in a speech yesterday that the U.S. summer “likely marked the end of the recession, and the economy should expand in the second half of this year. A wide array of data supports this view.” The unemployment rate reached 9.7 percent in August, a quarter-century high, and employers have eliminated almost 7 million jobs since the recession started, the biggest drop in any post-World War II economic downturn. Banks worldwide have recorded more than $1.6 trillion of losses and writedowns since the start of 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The central bank in March authorized $1.45 trillion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities and other housing debt this year. Policy makers decided last month to taper off a $300 billion program buying U.S. Treasuries through October, while debating a similar move for MBS purchases. Bernanke convenes the next meeting of Fed policy makers Sept. 22-23 in Washington. The economy will rebound at a 2.3 percent pace next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The growth rate won’t be fast enough to lower the unemployment rate below 9 percent, the economists predict. ‘About Right’ “The chairman got it about right,” Glenn Hutchins, co- founder and co-chief executive of Silver Lake, a private investment firm with $13 billion under management, said on a panel following Bernanke’s speech. “We are experiencing stability both in financial markets and underlying corporate performance,” he said. “But the overwhelming sense of market participants right now is that we are at a very low level of activity.” Before becoming a central banker, Bernanke, a former Princeton University economics professor, served on the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business-cycle dating committee, the group that determines the dates of U.S. recessions. Stanford University Professor Robert Hall, the panel’s current chairman, said in August that declaring the recession over may take more than a year because of the risk that recent signs of stabilization will prove short-lived. Sales Rise Sales at U.S. retailers rose 2.7 percent last month, led by a jump in auto purchases as consumers took advantage of the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” program. The increase exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 0.2 percent drop in July, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Responding to a separate question, Bernanke said he’s “pretty optimistic” on chances for an overhaul of financial regulations given a crisis that was “too big a calamity” to ignore. “I feel quite confident that a comprehensive reform will be forthcoming,” Bernanke said. Congress is preparing the biggest overhaul of U.S. financial regulations since the 1930s, when the Fed was reorganized. The U.S. Treasury proposes to give the Fed greater authority over the capital, liquidity, and risk-management standards at the largest financial firms. Congressional leaders haven’t supported that proposal and are considering giving broader authority to a council of regulators. “The problem we had in part was the lack of systemic oversight,” President Barack Obama said in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday. “We want to have a systemic-risk regulator,” he said, adding that “the Fed is best equipped to do this.” To contact the reporter on this story: Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net; Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 15, 2009 12:55 EDT |
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richtan
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15-Sep-2009 00:33
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U.S. Stocks Extend Global Drop as SLM Leads Financials Lower By Lynn Thomasson Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks extended a global drop, sending the MSCI World Index down for the first time in eight days, as SLM Corp. led a slide in financial shares after its debt rating was cut. Treasury 10-year notes fell for the first time in four days amid speculation their recent gains can’t be sustained. SLM, the student-financing company known as Sallie Mae, tumbled 5 percent Fitch Ratings cut its long-term debt rating. Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley also helped lead Standard & Poor’s 500 Index financial shares, which have more than doubled since March, to the steepest loss among 10 groups. The S&P 500 fell after last week’s 2.6 percent gain left it valued at the most expensive compared with earnings in five years. “Stocks have probably come too far, too fast,” said Charles Knott, the chief investment officer at Knott Capital in Exton, Pennsylvania, who oversees about $550 million. “We’re concerned about whether the economy is going to be as strong as some people think.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.1 percent to 1,041.46 at 12:07 p.m. in New York after last week’s 2.6 percent rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1 percent to 9583.42. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets slipped 0.5 percent. Global equities also retreated after China, the world’s fastest growing major economy, said it’s probing U.S. sales of chicken and auto products for “unfair trade practices,” two days after the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares fell 0.3 percent. A 51 percent surge since March 9 has driven valuations on the gauge to 46.8 times profit, the highest level since 2003, weekly Bloomberg data show. Government Bailouts The MSCI World of 23 developed nations trades at 27.3 times the earnings of its 1,659 companies after a 61 percent advance. Stocks rallied over the past six months as the Group of 20 countries committed $12 trillion to help end the global recession, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the Federal Reserve has held its target rate for overnight lending between banks at near zero to unlock credit markets after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. “If you’d asked me to predict what would’ve happened in the year following Lehman, it’s fair to say that I would’ve got the vast majority of it wrong,” Gary Jenkins, an analyst at Evolution Securities Ltd. in London, wrote in a note to clients. “I wouldn’t have thought that equities or credit would have recovered in price and spread terms as quickly as they have.” Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, said governments around the world have failed to rein in the banking industry in the year since the collapse of Lehman roiled financial markets. The European Central Bank warned last week that protectionism risks hampering trade and undermining government efforts to resuscitate growth. To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Daniel Hauck in London at dhauck1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 14, 2009 12:10 EDT |
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lookcc
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14-Sep-2009 21:05
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many hope n hope. | ||||
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smartrader
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14-Sep-2009 20:59
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Dow will be up... |
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dealer0168
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14-Sep-2009 19:28
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Still useless, if US fall heavy tonight. Tomorrow morning STI will still drop. Seems like mini correction coming already. Hope is a one day things. Than next few days, STI continue to sail properly UP.
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aleoleo
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14-Sep-2009 19:02
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HANG SENG TRADING MAY CLOSE IF STORM CONTINUES .... Hang seng trading may be close if the storm is still strong and become serious tomorrow. official website already announce No. 8 storm reaching HK. IFstorm alert from weather forecast is still on 8am tomorrow, postpone open for HSI IFstorm alert from weather forecast is removed 830am - 930am tomorrow, HSI postpone open 2 hrs later . IFstorm alert from weather forecast is removed 930am - 12noon tomorrow, HSI postpone open at 2.30pm IFstorm alert from weather forecast is still on after 12noon, close for the day of trading. |
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el7888
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14-Sep-2009 07:03
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GENEVA - THE financial markets are showing signs of normalising, with interbank money markets recovering to levels not seen since early 2008, the world's biggest central bank body said on Sunday. 'Despite uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery, investors remained cautiously optimistic in the period between end-May and early September 2009,' said the Bank for International Settlements. In particular, 'in interbank money markets, key spreads narrowed to levels not seen since the beginning of 2008", added the bank for central banks. The spread of United States rates even fell to the lowest level since the outbreak of the financial crisis in mid-2007, noted the BIS. The LIBOR/OIS spread or the premium that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) trades over the Overnight Swap Rate (OIS) is often taken as an indicator of the level of stress in the money market. In the aftermath of the collapse of venerable US bank Lehman Brothers, the spread widened sharply as lending froze up. Central banks had to take the extraordinary action of pumping in tonnes of liquidity to get lending flowing again. In its latest quarterly statistical review, the BIS noted that 'signs of receding liquidity premia and rebounding risk tolerance were also evident in bond markets'. However, there was great volatility in the bond markets as investors appeared to be unsure about the pace of recovery. 'Over time, bond investors seemed to increasingly take the view that the worst of the economic downturn was over, but that recovery was likely to be gradual and vulnerable to setbacks. 'This, in combination with low expected inflation, led them to scale back expectations that monetary policies would begin to normalise anytime soon,' it said. -- AFP |
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