So aptly put!  I believe many have benefitted from your analysis of the current situation.  Going forward, wouldn't it be hazardous to long the market since you appear so confident that oil will hit $150 in 2 months max?  The shortist would be having a party, wouldn't they? 

Looking at the mess that the BBs have created with the sub-prime, they would be using all ammunitions to clear the "s--t" with oil as their trump card.  There's even talk that the sub-prime might even hit $1 trillion!  Going forward, what would your advice be for a mid-term investor with no risk appetite and skill to scalp?

You are one sifu that I wish to learn from.

Elfin,
        Thanks. Will wait a while. I'm just a small timer retail investor buying only 1 to 2 lots at a time.  Some small loss on this counter. I'll average out later on, not now as the market looks like in a doldrum.

yah. i read a lot.   it's fun for me tho, piecing together the puzzles, the reasons why they are doing what they are doing. have read a lot since i was a child.

technicals help to show the picture. but the depth of the picture is only understood if you understand the human mind. not just others', but your own. Technical tools are just that: tools. If one doesn't understand the tool or why it is used for, its purpose, how can it be accurate? Most of the time, i suspect, when people say technicals are inaccurate, it's because they either used the wrong indicators, or they misinterpreted it. alt, they jumped on impulse: seeing signals where none existed. that's emotion, not technicals.  

investing is most of all about psychology. even if you are a   at charts, if you can understand yourself, and understand psychology, sticking to a proper framework of investing rules, really, you can't go far wrong.

after all, the best minds from Harvard, Princeton, Yale enter Wall Street. But look where the best minds have gotten us so far. massive bets on subprime gone wrong, credit crunches, liquidity crises. Bear Sterns gone down, UBS, Merril, Citi, BoA on massive losses. Why? They're speculators, not investors.

ie, Know the market, know yourself. What you are up against, what you are willing to risk. Speculator, trader, or investor? If trader, what kind? Short term, long term? Nothing wrong either way, as long as you know what you are and why you are playing. So define yourself. that's the most important first step in the market.

o/w, herd mentality rules on the market place. understand psychology, and you'll understand the market.