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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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ekekeg
Veteran |
01-Feb-2008 16:28
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Honestly speaking, the more a company spent on R&D, the more we should feel comfortable in it because it is where more improvements are made, new products are discovered, and more knowledge obtained. As I mentioned, the R&D expenditures are the intrinsic goodwill of a company. If a co spent $10 Mil on R&D, that is $10 Million worth of goodwill there. We are talking about public listed companies where transparency are the norms and not the myths. So I would rate BIG much more than its market price. |
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allright
Senior |
01-Feb-2008 15:42
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To clarify , what i meant was that when it was announced that Research and Development etc was increased ...this is to me a MOST POSITIVE aspect especially in the PHARMACEUTICAL industry....but was surprisingly dismissed by the analyst . To me Biosensors will be coming up with new and better developments and I believe it is NOT a "ONE DOG TRICK" counter as stated by the local dealer |
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allright
Senior |
01-Feb-2008 15:19
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Thanks ALL of you for info and analysis. Will now wait for the results and BIG's guidance going forward. It will be the new CEO presenting right? Hope he can make it work. To be fair to the previous announcements made , I can find nothing negative, but somehow there was a negative interpretation. We believe in this stock and its future .... |
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almostthere
Member |
01-Feb-2008 14:56
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I think that it is very very important for the CFO to 'accurately' forecast the future revenue stream and profit. I am sure that there should be something from Terumo now that they too received their CE mark and have exclusive rights to the Japanese market. Looking forward eagerly. Hope the 1H timeline is achievable. Cheers to all. |
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cwwan1
Member |
01-Feb-2008 09:21
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lets predict the loss for the last quarter which is due to report on Monday. This is first time there is no halt or release of good news before the quarterly result. Actually no need anymore good news as CE is in the hand. BIG should be very busy now, ramping all their buisness unit, ready for the 5 billion mkt -11m my prediction but if there is JW renveue coming in then it would be less maybe -6m. :))) |
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OkieDokie
Member |
01-Feb-2008 09:13
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Thanks Bengster. Yes, should be completed by 1st half of 2008. Faster the better ! We need to unlock the value of our investments quickly as well. Many things around will be 'cheaper' in 2008 and we will need real hard cash to take advantage of the pending Great Singapore Sales. 'Cash is King' policy will feature strongly as a pole position for every invstors in 2008 ! |
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bengster68
Master |
01-Feb-2008 00:39
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Good analysis! But i think the BIG day will be in 2008. |
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OkieDokie
Member |
31-Jan-2008 22:54
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May I stressed NO TAKEOVER IN SIGHT at the moment ! Compelling reasons telling me this : (a) Worsening credit situation caused by the sub-prime has breed extremely tight credit controls by banks. Commercial loan proposal involving billions will hardly find a lender at the moment. This will in a big way curtailed competition by way of counter-bids if indeed cash-rich JnJ make a move for BIG. Buyers' best buy policy alway hold truth " Why pay $2 when you 'need' only to pay $1". So it is unlikely LYC will want to wrap up a deal under such a 'seller-disadvantage' market situation. He will spend his efforts to secure the collaboration with the "Someone" that can help to expedite FDA approval for Biomatrix, as matter of unlocking value of BIG.. (b) As I said before, the current price is a far cry from for what we supposed to be that magic number for BIG takeover price. Even if a deal with magic number is already on the table, it will be hold in abeyance and no formal announcement will take place. The ready market share price must gap up close to this magic number otherwise the buying companies will take a beating. No matter how much premium a pharma/medical device company can command, buyer shareholders and some some damn ANALyst will not be kind to excessive premiums. No one will spend billions and see more billions wipe off their market cap. (c) Finally and most telling sign from a layman's perspective. Nothing about the share price movement and volume traded suggest the existence of a takeover rumour. Normally there will be rumours floating around for takeovers. No matter how discreet, such news will leak out from invloved companies staff, underwriting bank, etc. In BIG case, to a big extent and I honestly think so it has to be a deliberate move, such rumours/news leaks have to be in existence to help the share price to surge and close the gap to what we believe is that magic number. While takeover is not in sight at the moment I am confident that we can say the same of this potential BIG takeover as was said of Biomatrix's CE Mark : "Not If But Rather A Matter of When". I will lockup my couple hundreds of k shares away from the hands of Bengster and other bargain hunters, and wait patiently for this BIG day to come ! |
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almostthere
Member |
31-Jan-2008 16:32
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yea, i thought for LYC to step out of the Presidency and CEO role, gives him full access and time to manage the 'takeover' topic. KeeLock is also an experience financial man with venture capital funding experience. Lets continue to hope for the best......and soon. |
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bengster68
Master |
31-Jan-2008 16:28
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Thats a possibilty also. We wouldn't know the real motivation behind the top level management. But to be fair, this guy looks well qualified to run the operations like a professional CEO. If im LYC negotiating USA licensing agreement, i would negotiate for a low initial deposit, high lump sum completion and high royalty of sales so that there is motivation for the USA licensee to buy you up in future. Lock in the protection of a Mafia family first. When they see BIG's huge potential 3 years down the road, they may even offer $5 per share to takeover just before Biomatrix's FDA approval. But the USA JV partner also has the risk of BIG refusing to sell (remain independent) since BIG's ambition as top DES global player is about to become a reality. A few hundred millions (US$) of net profit a year will be easily achieved after Biomatrix's FDA approval. Don't even need to sell, remain as a blue chip index stock in Singapore. Be the poster company Singapore will be proud of. BTW, Singapore EDB and Temasek also a shareholder of BIG. |
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ekekeg
Veteran |
31-Jan-2008 16:03
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Could the new CEO ang moh be the DES big boys "due diligence" man? Quite natural that even if he is, it would be a closely guarded secret by them (DES BBs). Would you think so? |
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bengster68
Master |
31-Jan-2008 15:55
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BBs may be quietly accumulating. When they accumulate, you won't even know they are doing it. Super stealth mode. Of course there are DES big boys involved in the new change of FDA approval criteria. These guys work like mafias, and the mafia families have the power to appoint judges and control unions. Where got so good timing after Endeavor and Xience approved, the bar will be raised substantially higher than before. Biomatrix is taking very long to get FDA IDE too. Just like Biomatrix's CE approval is almost 3 years while many the big boys normally take one year (with much inferior results). The big boys will try to "arm-twist" BIG into unfavourable position and eventually try to buy BIG cheap. They know BIG has the best proprietary DES weapon technology and most powerful DES patent. I feel LYC (the biggest shareholder) is the best person to negotiate any USA licensing deals or takeover deals. The new ang moh CEO is not vested with any BIG shares at all. Just like in banking industry takeover, we can only trust Wee Cho Yeow to cut the best deal for UOB because he is the most heavily vested. I think "foreign talents" CEO tend to over-pay for takeover deals. The theory is simple...... because it is not their hard earned money and they are not vested. Therefore, i believe only LYC can get the best deal for shareholders like us. The new ang moh CEO and current President can be his consultants. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
31-Jan-2008 14:59
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it seem there is no BBs who wanna play this stock at the moment. so bored of it.. |
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almostthere
Member |
31-Jan-2008 14:02
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Greetings brother Bengster68, I just came back from a to/fro three weeks trip. I went long postion [actualy quite long] just prior to CE announcement. Cannot bring myself to sell just above $1.05 as know too much and has that 'expectation' post - CE. Unfortunately, no counter is greater that the sums added together. I had a margin call monday. What this does is that I am 'forced' to have more BIG shares that I had planned for. Fortunately, can service interest cost. In your scenario No: 3. Could it be possible that some big boys is also responsible for the change of benchmarking 'tagetted' at BIG. A predatory move? If the same big boy happens to be a potential acquirer, things could happen even faster. I thought for Lu and KeeLock to step 'away' and let Michael be the President and CEO gave a very interesting [and hopefully] important signal. This move I feel is in support of what Lu said that he does not discount a takeover. I most certainly hope so and the faster the better. Maybe within the next 3 months. Of course, February 04 results announcement can trigger another sell off as BIG is not expected to show positive results BUT it is so very important for the CFO to be very clear about the future numbers. Standing by to top up margin call as I am still bullish on this stock - strategic and situational opportunity. May I wish you Bengster68 and all bull forum members a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous Lunar New Year of the Rat. Cheers |
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bengster68
Master |
31-Jan-2008 13:17
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I feel BIG has to unlock hidden value first, then takeover will happen. Would JNJ's CEO want pay 200% takeover premium and face tough questioning of overpaying from JNJ's shareholders? So, BIG has to unlock hidden value first, share price surge up, then it will be more platable for takeover deal to happen. |
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bengster68
Master |
31-Jan-2008 12:50
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I believe BIG will prove all the doomsday sayer wrong. It won't take very long, fellow BIG supporters. Takeover is a fast exit for all shareholders at a good price. But if not takeover, i believe BIG has the potential to trade higher than $3 in 3 to 4 years time. There are 3 scenarios now: 1. Takeover immediately (most likely by JNJ) 2. USA licensing deal, followed by takeover later on. This takeover will be more costly for the acquirer and may happen 3 years later, most likely by the USA licensing partner. 3. USA licensing deal, no takeover. BIG becomes a main DES player with all global markets covered. Net profit should be US$100m and above per year before USA approval. Once USA approval is obtained (2011 due to change in FDA's DES approval criteria recently which i feel is specificly targeted at Biomatrix), net profit easily US$200m to US$300m a year. Net profit figures will depend on how much market share BIG and licensees can capture. BIG will become a blue chip index stock in SGX. |
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allright
Senior |
31-Jan-2008 12:26
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Thanks . Will take heart from that...sorry to be so depressed and negative....You are right...must believe in what is going to happen... |
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ekekeg
Veteran |
31-Jan-2008 12:06
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Don't just believe in a stock. Believe in what is going to happen. Analyse the logic of businessman and you will then be able to be comfortable in what you are believing in. Biosensors is in a good position to bargain for a high takeover price if there is a taker. Of course if there is no taker, we can still feel comfortable with the potential of its products and the market. I think the general market will start to digest the effects of the rate cuts. Total within a week of 1.25% cut in interest rate is no small thing. Since more goodies are still coming into the market to stall or offset the effects of the impending recessionary woes or a real recession, the stock market will soon recover, and I believe strongly that it will recover fast. So with a recovery, I hope Biosensors will be set to bring us good rewards as loyal supporters. |
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allright
Senior |
31-Jan-2008 10:58
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Thank You for the clarification. Really have to believe in this stock...quite disheartened |
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bengster68
Master |
31-Jan-2008 10:37
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The 3rd DES coming into the market is refering to Medtronic's Endeavor entering USA market in around Mar 2008. The 4th DES ABT's Xience will also enter USA market around Apr to May 2008. However, both Endeavor and Xience cannot match with Biomatrix's performance. The next one waiting to enter USA market will be Biomatrix. However, FDA has been delaying Biomatrix's IDE for very very long already. 2 months ago, FDA pulled a new stunt requiring larger and longer clinical trial for future DES approvals in USA. I think the purpose is to reduce the goal post size significantly immediately after Endeavor and Xience, specifically aimed at Biomatrix. Regulatory approvals are very hard to deal if you don't have the lobbying power and influence (looking at BIG's CE experience) with so i expect BIG to have a JV partner for USA market soon to settle the FDA problems. BIG may have the best stent but the approvals are still not within BIG's control. Still accumulating slowly. Chiong up too fast, i don't chase. Drop by a lot, i will pick up more. |
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