| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
 Post Reply
|
|
NOL
|
|||||
|
halleluyah
Elite |
10-May-2013 18:22
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Go in after US mkt correction n flw by all other mkts then go in will b better as px is more stabilize too. Lets watch how mkt going after 19 may.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
pseudo
Member |
10-May-2013 18:09
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
All out rate war Liao le. See lloydslist summit. Carriers are all blaming each other. Whilst seaintel has a view that the rate depression is on purpose. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
10-May-2013 17:52
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
In short just don do anything till next wed, either punting or shorting. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
10-May-2013 17:48
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
500M cost saving knock down operating cost by 5% and according to fiscal report 2012, the operating cost is slightly below average 2012 freight rate of US $2509 after the cost saving . 80% refer to world cargo, currently most of the container business don link contract to index due to huge swing and unstable nature. If all contracts is link to index, carriers would not let the current depress rate remain could just repeat last year GRI and pulled capacity. otherwise why Europe rate is so poor in NOL 3Q12 should shoot to 3000+ according to SCFI at that time. I checked out NOL previous fiscal results and found that their freight rate is based on seasonal demand basically rise in 2Q peak in 3Q weaken in 4Q recover in 1Q. How NOL would perform depend on what freight rate they got in 2Q, oil price and the various surcharges ( bunker, PSS etc). NOL building profit of 196M and reduced operating cost is more or less confirmed, surcharges and bunker price are the variable. That why I mentioned to stay out of this counter till next wed to be on the safe side. Not to mentioned Fleet renewal also help to lower operating cost too, 50% completed in 2012 now just need to verify the result in 1Q13. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
pseudo
Member |
10-May-2013 17:43
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
2H2011? thats been long gone bro
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Octavia
Elite |
10-May-2013 16:29
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Nomura Equity Research says that despite the recent share price correction of Asian container stocks, it believes there is more downside to come, and now expects the sector to remain loss-making for the rest of the year. Nomura believes the 3Q11 peak season will disappoint, preventing carriers from pushing through crucial freight rate increases (peak-season surcharges or general rate hikes). “Thus, we expect the container sector to report full-year losses and signs are emerging that growth from the developed world could slow. Oil prices remain high and bunker surcharges would be insufficient to cover the bunker oil cost. We think 2012 is likely to see a return to profitability, but this is overshadowed by uncertainties in 2H11.” Nomura said the container shipping sector recovery is taking longer than expected. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
pseudo
Member |
10-May-2013 15:08
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
500m is accumulated saving for whole year 2012 lar... 45% is on bunker expense (10% off less fuel)
PSS may not achieved to full extent like last year... Bunker surcharge is same as last year nothing to shout about. 80% of transpacific trade u mean. Asia Europe mostly on spot
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
10-May-2013 14:18
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Did the brokerage house take into consideration of the successful implementation of the 500M cost saving and Bunker surcharge + CNY PSS into valuation. Lot of brokerage houses prediction often not up to date and either over negative or positive, not giving investors/punters correct view. So just take the brokerage recommendation with a pitch of salt, just for reference I prefer global trade data as guide which is pointing to a strengthening US economy which meant better transpacific trade. Spot rate currently not a good indicator for stock price movement as it can be easily influenced by forwarders shorting it or carriers forced GRI plus 80% of world trade is not linked to spot rate index. Price of crude oil, US/China trade data more reliable source of future guide. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Octavia
Elite |
10-May-2013 12:07
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
CS has pre-earnings preview, with the house maintaining its UnderPerform Call with $0.95 TP. Note that NOL is scheduled to release its 1Q13 results next Tuesday, with house expecting a pre-ex loss of $41m. This excludes a US$195 m gain on its HQ building sale. House anticipate slightly improved performance with a growth of 2% in liner volumes and 1% in rates, which should combine with a doubling of logistics contributions and 12%+ declines in bunker prices to support performance, although this is expected to NOL’s eighth pre-ex loss in the last nine reporting seasons. Overall, continue to take a dim view of the liner segment and – while NOL should enjoy better rates on its key T/Pac route once contracts reset from the end of this month, the current spot erosion is likely to limit these, while other lanes remain pressured. Continue to view NOL as over-valued relative to its rates of return and vulnerable to the anticipated deterioration of freight rates in the face of excess supply. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
10-May-2013 11:07
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
In Singapore we are overpaying for everything cos everything is imported. The only thing that is not overpay is our salary as the government artificially hold down pay increment for 10 years to boost growth. Now they start to realise what a big mistake it is and try to reverse course by trying to get employer to boost pay through reducing foreign labour and share the pain for 3 years with a 40% share in pay increment. Do you think employers so stupid after 3 years their profit margin would decline due to higher labour cost. That is why it is always not a good ideas to try to manipulate human related issue like birth rate, pay , love etc. Guess they never learn from earlier 70 LKY mistake of stop at 2 birth control policy. Come GE2016, it going to be very interesting since more young people would get chance to vote and maybe down another 1-3 GRC to speed up reform in Singapore domestic policy. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dippyboy
Member |
10-May-2013 00:57
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The concept is called intrinsic value. Overpay and theres no greater fool and you will be poor sucker, no doubt about that. There is also a difference between profitable govt backed business and non-profitable ones. The latter wont be able to make any money for investors in the longer term and might lose alot. Short term, one have to be a good technician to punt on bb moves. In anycase technicians wont be looking at Nol in the near term either, cause there is an implicit govt put to the downside, even though theres lots of real downside risks to earnings to cause a valuation rerating .period.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
CSH123
Member |
09-May-2013 12:02
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
your house is not at cost neither is ur car or ur glass of kopi |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
CSH123
Member |
09-May-2013 12:00
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Without trade, banks will no be able to function and countries cannot grow. Dippyboy mentioned buying things at cost..will everybody be able to do so realistically? Think.. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
09-May-2013 11:52
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
By the way don go in yet if u are purely punting for profit cos 1Q13 result would greatly affected share price trading trend. For those holding gona be patient with NOL as need to assess the impact of the 500M cost saving on the margin in 1Q13. For now just sit back and enjoy the current bullish trading pattern. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
CSH123
Member |
09-May-2013 10:38
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
tell me which company isnt..even ocbc and f& n are
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dippyboy
Member |
09-May-2013 02:29
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
i wouldnt bet on govt support to invest in a business. look at all those semi conductor companies in the 90s during the tech push(jurong tech , chartered etc). stats chip is the only one left after lagging for so long. It really depends on the price paid. eg, For a $1.1 company with like net 80c of debt owned by the banks on the balancesheet, its as good as being owned by the bank as in liquidation basis when assets is fetched at market prices, common share holders would be wiped out and bank will struggle to get back a dollar on a dollar. Now if you paid full $1.1 for such assets when it might fetch nil based on implicit hope of govt backing its really wishful thinking. The same dollar could be invested in a better business that earns money. Paying inflated full value for a huge indebted business is like buying a car from a bankrupt person and paying full price plus addition guarantee for the massive hire purchase when you dont need to.The bankrupt would be very happy to sell you his shit, along with all the creditors obligation if its possible. but listed companies cant be sold so easily as theres not many suckers around except empire builders CEO. The reason is no sane businessman would be paying such inflated price for something only worth far less. They might consider a takeover if its 30c on a dollar cause thats whats the remaining valuable asset would be worth after deducting the debt. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
09-May-2013 01:29
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
Maybe but Dow jones got like 15% more to go hitting 17000 maybe adjusted for inflation currently US stocks not so expensive due to higher earning reported. Lot of fund managers in shit hole they dug themselves by shorting stock praying for massive sell down. Once they started to cover their position it going to be fun but be aware this is a false bull run till US economy recovers for good and unemployment at US gone down below 6%. US economy bound back from deep shit every time, strongest economy in the world at least US companies is expert in cutting cost lol. The big correction would come when Fed reserve stopped QE3 and started to raise interest rate global, that is the signal to sell everything lol. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
CSH123
Member |
08-May-2013 22:08
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Do you why they said that? SSE still have 15% to play catch up and these jokers r using this lame excuse to bargain hunt to load up their positions in asia..7 mths.. shortist gonna be in trouble
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
08-May-2013 21:42
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
It gona be a roller coaster ride this year of snake. Now economists said today china trade data is kelong, saying china government made up the number by reporting higher number on their export/import cost lol. This is silly economists in US also said the same thing on Apr job data, it look like every economists are hell bent on screwing the economy than giving a correct view based on actual data. Look like their financial backers are piling pressure on them to talk down global economy cos they had a big pile of short positions to cover lol the Sell in May and go away June strategy backfired badly. Now if the May US job data go up strongly it gona be Buy May ( Short cover) Buy June ( Short cover) lol | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
CSH123
Member |
08-May-2013 21:32
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
i didnt cut..saw it frm .98 to 2.3 and nw here..bought alot and smemre with margin which had since fully paid..will be ok
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||