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Dow Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Aug-2013 08:12
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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VIX index jumps as stocks tank, but still far from ?fear? territoryU.S. stocks took it on the chin for a second day Thursday, leading the Chicago Board Option Exchange?s Volatility Index, or VIX ? known colloquially if not somewhat misleadingly as the ?fear index? ? to its biggest one-day jump since the last big equity pullback in June. The VIX rose 1.53 points to 14.57, an 11.7% jump from Wednesday ? the largest daily jump since a rise of than 23% jump on June 20. OK, so a big move, but one that sees the index rising from a historically low level. And a low VIX can be taken as a sign of investor complacency, just as a high reading can mark investor fear. Strategists put the historic norm for the index at around 20. The VIX is calculated by taking real-time options prices on stock indexes. The number is a gauge of expected volatility over the next 30 days. Historically speaking, a reading well below 20 has been viewed as pretty tame, potentially a signal that investors have become too relaxed, strategists say, while levels above 30 are viewed as signaling a high level of investor fear or uncertainty. ? William L. Watts |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
16-Aug-2013 07:51
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks slammed Dow drops over 200 pointsImproving labor market cements views of September taperingNEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks on Thursday thudded lower for a second day, with the Dow industrials posting their first back-to-back triple-digit drop since June, as Treasury yields spiked to 2011 highs and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. cut their forecasts. Several upbeat economic reports spurred thinking that the Federal Reserve will begin to scale back its monthly bond buys in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 225.47 points, or 1.5%, to end at 15,112.19, with Cisco Systems Inc. pacing the drop, off 7.2%. Of the Dow?s 30 components, 28 fell. Wal-Mart?s shares were down 2.6%. The S& P 500 index lost 24.07 points, or 1.4%, to 1,661.32, with all its 10 major sectors ending lower among them, consumer discretionary and technology were slammed the hardest. The Nasdaq Composite declined 63.16 points, or 1.7%, to 3,606.12. Around 721 million shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Composite volume surpassed 3.3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
15-Aug-2013 07:36
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks decline Dow off over 100 pointsNEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, with the first triple-digit drop for the Dow since June, as investors worried about the recent spike in borrowing costs as well as the timing and pace of potential reductions in the Federal Reserve?s bond purchases. ?It looks like tapering is going to begin in September,? with the consensus view expecting the Fed to cut its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases to between $60 billion and $65 billion a month, said Rick Robinson, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank. So, instead of buying a trillion on an annualized basis, the Fed?s asset purchases would be trimmed to between $700 and $750 billion, said Robinson. ?That?s not tightening by any stretch of the imagination they are still growing their balance sheet,? he added. Pointing to Tuesday?s 10 basis-point move in the 10-year Treasury yield back above 2.70%, Robinson said that ?there is the slow realization that over time, and it?s not going to happen tomorrow, that rates are going to normalize, so we?ll see the 10-year slowly go above 3%.? After a 134-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 113.35 points, or 0.7%, at 15,337.66, with 22 of its 30 components in the red, led by home-improvement retailer Home Depot Inc., down 2.5%. The S& P 500 index lost 8.77 points, or 0.5%, to 1,685.39, with consumer discretionary the worst performing and technology faring the best among its 10 major sectors. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 15.17 points, or 0.4%, to 3,669.27. For every share rising, just over two fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 621 million shares traded. Composite volume neared 2.9 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
14-Aug-2013 16:06
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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France exits recession, German growth beatsGermany and France posted forecast-beating growth in the second quarter, offering investors hope that the euro zone exited recession in the second quarter and is on the road to recovery. Germany's economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter from the first, as domestic public and private consumption picked up. Meanwhile, France leaped out of a recession, posting 0.5% growth in the second quarter, way above expectations of 0.2% growth. The GDP numbers mark the end of a long roller-coaster ride for the German economy and a return to stable growth, according to Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING. " Since the start of the year, German macro data has been highly erratic...Looking ahead, the German economy should settle down to a growth rate of around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year." Bob Parker, senior advisor at Credit Suisse, agreed, telling CNBC that the German data revealed a positive economic trend. " If one looks at German data for May, June and July you see a progressive improvement across all sectors of the economy...stronger industrial production numbers, stronger export numbers but critically for the German economy was this uptrend in the last few months of German consumption." The data come ahead of GDP figures for the euro zone as a whole (due at 10:00a.m. London time) which are expected to show that the entire region has exited recession and show growth for the first time in six quarters. Although the news will be cheered, unemployment remains stubbornly high in the euro zone, at 12.1% in June. " The euro zone still has a long way to go before positive growth numbers can honestly be called recovery, but relief should stand above skepticism, at least for one day," ING's Brezski said. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
14-Aug-2013 08:34
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise with help from Apple Inc.Home builders hit as 10-year yields riseNEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday, with technology pacing the gains, after investor Carl Icahn touted his large position in Apple Inc. Apple jumped 4.8% after Icahn revealed his ?large position? in the stock and amid reports that the consumer-technology company will unveil a new iPhone on Sept. 10. ?When you have a market leader, a still widely held stock being referenced by one of the most widely known and respected investors, Carl Icahn, people do want to play follow the leader,? said Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners. After an 84-point rise and 77-point slide, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 15,451.01, up 31.33 points, or 0.2%. Hewlett-Packard Co. paced blue-chip gains, up 2.1%, after being placed on Citigroup Inc.?s focus list. The S& P 500 index rose 4.69 points, or 0.3%, to 1,694.16, with technology and financials the best performing of its 10 major sectors. Rafferty Capital Markets analyst Dick Bove told CNBC on Tuesday that the banking sector is on track for record profits this year. The Nasdaq Composite gained 14.49 points, or 0.4%, to 3,684.44. For every two shares rising, roughly three fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where 618 million shares traded. Composite volume topped 3 billion. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Aug-2013 15:35
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Aug-2013 15:30
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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European stocks rise ahead of German ZEW surveyLONDON (MarketWatch) -- Europe's benchmark stock index rose for a fourth straight day at the open on Tuesday, with investors awaiting the latest report on German business confidence, the ZEW survey, and U.S. retail sales later in the day. The Stoxx Europe 600 index gained 0.3% to 306.85, on track for the highest closing level since late May. Shares of E.ON SE climbed 4.2% after a well-received earnings report from the utility firm. On a more downbeat note, K+S AG lost 2.9% after the potash maker posted second-quarter revenue below market expectations. Among country-specific indexes, Germany's DAX 30 index added 0.7% to 8,417.41, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index gained 0.4% to 6,602.45. France's CAC 40 index climbed 0.3% to 4,082.65. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
13-Aug-2013 09:02
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks end with Dow loss, Nasdaq gain NEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks closed a low-volume, light-news session with slight losses on Monday, though the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite managed a gain. The S& P 500 edged down 1.95 points, or 0.1%, to 1,689.47 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 5.83 points, or 0.04%, to end at 15,419.68. But the Nasdaq Composite gained 9.84 points, or 0.3%, to 3,669.95. A nearly 3% gain by Apple Inc. provided a lift to the tech-heavy index, after a report over the weekend that the next iPhone will debut on Sept. 10. Investors also were digesting a price-target cut for Apple by Needham analysts. The Dow had been down as much as 0.4% out of the gate. Last week, the blue-chip index lost 1.5% to snap a six-week winning streak, and the S& P 500 shed 1%. On Monday, IT and telecom stocks were performing best among S& P sectors, as energy and utilities fared worst. Caterpillar Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. did best among Dow components, while Walt Disney Co. was the biggest decliner. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
10-Aug-2013 09:41
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks finish lower for fourth straight dayBenchmark stock indexes closed lower Friday after a morning effort at rebounding from a three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones industrial average, S& P 500 and Nasdaq composite index finished down for the week, minutes after President Obama completed his first press conference since March. The Dow closed down 72.81 points, 0.5% to 15,425.51. The S& P 500 finished down 6.06 points, 0.4% to about 1,691.42. The tech-laden Nasdaq ended down 9.02 points, 0.3%, to 3,660.11. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 2.58%, from just over 2.59% a day ago. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
09-Aug-2013 07:49
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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U.S. stocks rise, snapping 3-session losing streak ....NEW YORK (MarketWatch) U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, bouncing back after a three-session slide, as Chinese trade data beat expectations and Wall Street considered the impact of jobless claims on the timing of reductions in the Federal Reserves bond-buying program. The labor market isnt seeing the big improvement necessary for the Fed to begin their big taper, I believe, at least until December, said Chris Gaffney, senior market strategist at EverBank Wealth Management. In China, data showed that exports and imports rebounded sharply in July, confirming that China is going from an export-driven to a consumer-led economy, said Gaffney. After rising 86 points and falling 52, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27.65 points, or 0.2%, to end at 15,498.32. The S& P 500 index rose 6.57 points, or 0.4%, to 1,697.48, halting a decline that had the index off 1.1% during the first three days of the week on thinking the Federal Reserve would cut back on its bond purchases as soon as next month. Telecommunications led declines among the S& P 500s major industry groups and materials performed the best, with the price of gold climbing back above $1,300 an ounce. The Nasdaq Composite rose 15.12 points, or 0.4%, to 3,669.12. For every share falling, nearly two gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 689 million shares traded. Composite volume cleared 3.2 billion. |
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stockpicker
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08-Aug-2013 20:50
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Bernanke has messed up everything including the transportation stocks in DOW.. it is no longer representing the actual train traffic..compare the train carload chart of this website to the DOW transportation index.. the carload is actually diving.. http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2013/08/01/rail-week-ending-27-july-2013-dynamics-reverse-in-strong-week |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Aug-2013 20:47
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Strategist believes bull still has room to run ....Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, says the current bull is part of a long-term, secular uptrend in stocks. The bull, he says, has legs, and is " transitioning" into a new more bullish phase. " Welcome to the bull market," he says. One big reason Belski thinks stocks can keep rising (although don't expect a straight line up, he says) is because the market is moving into the second phase of a three-part story. The market, which made history last week when the S& P 500 closed above 1700 for the first time, is exiting the " reactionary," or disbelief, phase and going into the midcycle " acceptance" phase.In the acceptance phase, Belski says, investors start thinking in the following way: " You know what? I can buy stocks again. The stock market is not the evil empire. They are not going to hurt me." In this stage, money moves back into the stock market, creating a tailwind in the form of greater demand. The good news is the stock market is far from the bull market-killing " euphoria" stage, when everyone and their uncle is in the market, and there is no one left to buy. The stock market only has one way to go: down. " We are nowhere near the euphoria stage," says Belski. That doesn't mean there won't be pullbacks or headwinds, he says, such as rising interest rates' potential impact on housing, angst about a federal budget deal or stocks struggling in a historically weak seasonal period. |
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starlene
Elite |
08-Aug-2013 18:31
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DOW can hit 17000? According...What's your view? Dow Industrials Will Hit 17,639 By Next Summer
IMAGES ARE BEING BLOCKED: CLICK DISPLAY IMAGES TO VIEW Forward to a Friend Having trouble viewing this issue? Click here. Refer a Friend to Wealth Daily. Dow to 17,639: Book It, Done By Christian A. DeHaemer | Tuesday, August 6th, 2013 Christian A. DeHaemer Dow Theory says new highs are coming. Back in May, I wrote in this space that the Dow Theory signaled a screaming buy on the Dow Industrials. Since then, the Dow Industrial Average has added more than 1,000 points and is now trading at 15,610... You can't argue with those returns. The question now is: Where do we go from here? Are the Dow Industrials still a buy? Well, according to the chart, both the Transports and the Industrials just hit new all-time highs: dow theory Advertisement How to Make a Full-Time Income Trading Just 15 Minutes a Month! One of the top analysts at Angel Publishing has just put the finishing touches on an EXPLOSIVE new video... In it, he's revealing the powerful trading system he has used to crush the markets for 15 years. Even better, he'll show you how this system could make you $3,040 in profit every single month by trading for just 15 minutes! You can watch the full video absolutely FREE by just clicking here now. If you've never heard about the Dow Theory before, here's a little background... The idea was dreamed up by Charles H. Dow in the late 1800s. Charles also happens to be the guy who founded the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as well as a small-town rag called the Wall Street Journal. Dow's idea was simple: If the industrial companies are doing well, they have to ship stuff. And if the shipping companies are doing well, then they must have something to ship. So strength in these companies indicates strength in the economy. Furthermore, if the Transports and the Industrials confirm each other, then you have a trend, up or down. If the transportation companies are lagging, it could foreshadow a fall in Industrials. That's the logic, anyway. As you can tell by the chart above, the Transports just launched. The Industrials confirmed. The trend is bullish. The Dow Jones Transportation Index hit an all-time high last week on the same day as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Advertisement " There's enough oil below American soil to put OPEC out of business for good!" They said it couldn't happen... One day, the U.S. would produce enough oil to kick OPEC to the curb. That day is here and these 3 companies are making it happen. History tells us that we will be up 13% over the next 12 months. If you go back to 1950 and look at when the Dow and the Transportation Index both made new all-time highs on the same day, you'll notice the median return from the Dow was 13% compared to a 7.64% median return on the Dow at any time... The Transports, however, showed a below-average return. According to the Wall Street Journal: When the Dow and transports are both making new highs, it seems thats just about the time transports begin to stall. One year after a signal, the transports average a gain of just 1.55%. This by far under-performs the typical one-year return of 9.93% for the transportation index. If past is prologue, the Dow Industrials will hit 17,639.3 by next summer. Gold Looks Fragile A month ago, I told you gold was going to rally off the bottom and that you should buy calls based simply on the trend and range. In the first week of July, it was obvious that gold was going to bounce. gld aug 5 It was oversold on the MACD... there was a doji... and so on... Today, that play has finished. The chart is rolling over and volume is down. If you are still in this play, it is time to take profits. Look for a bottom pattern around $1,150 or a break above the top of the range as your next buy signal. All the best, |
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stockpicker
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08-Aug-2013 17:48
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Be careful. The hangman in DOW has been confirmed. Similar bearish candlestick are also shown in S& P and Nasdaq.. just for information ..and please be careful...roll down to the following page to read the update http://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.sg/2013/08/the-hang-man-candlestick-is-it-dangerous.html |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Aug-2013 09:24
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Time to get bearish on stocks: Strategist ....The stock market isn't being ascribed the correct valuation, ConvergEx Group Chief Market Strategist Nicholas Colas said Tuesday. " We all hear $110 a share, and that seems like a very comfortable target, multiplied by 15, 16, 17, hit a price target, that's cool," he said. " However, what was that number 18 months ago? It was $118. What was it a year ago? It was $115. What was it the beginning of the year? It was $112. " So, the answer is not $110. We know it's going to be $108, maybe $107. And I'm pretty uncomfortable paying 16, 17 times earnings for numbers that are coming down. I want to pay for numbers that are going up. That's not happening here." On CNBC's " Fast Money," Colas said that stocks might be overextended. " Earnings are coming in, and P/E is going to expand to a point, but not much further," he added. " I think we're near that inflection point." Asked what a correct multiple would be, Colas said around 15 or 16 was " a very comfortable band," based on historical valuations. " Much past that, you're talking about improving fundamentals, better revenue growth," he added. " We're not getting any of that." Colas also noted the large inflows into the highly liquid SPY over the past six weeks -- $15 billion of the $35 billion that has moved into stock exchange-traded funds so far in the third quarter. " It's really hot, fast money in the U.S. market currently," he said. " So, I worry that as we do see that growth, money begins to spread out and it begins to look for opportunities elsewhere." |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
08-Aug-2013 09:01
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks fall for third straight day ....Stocks fell again Wednesday after a day of weak earnings reports and slumping bank stocks gave benchmark indexes their first three-day drop since June. The Dow Jones industrial average index dropped 48.07 points, or 0.3%, to 15,470.67. The S& P 500 index fell 6.46 points, or 0.4%, to 1,690.91. The Nasdaq composite index dropped 11.76 points, or 0.3%, to 3,654.01. The S& P 500 has drifted down 1.1% since reaching an all-time high of 1,709.67 on Friday. Trading has been thin this week, and warnings of slowing sales and tepid quarterly results have given investors no reason to push the market higher. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
07-Aug-2013 07:57
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Stocks drop as S& P 500 falls back below 1,700 ....Stocks dropped for a second straight day Tuesday as investors parsed the latest comments from Federal Reserve policymakers about when the central bank might start pulling back on its massive bond buying program. And weaker than expected weekly retail sales figures dampened investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 93.39 points, or 0.6%, to 15,518.74. The S& P 500 index dropped 9.77 points, or 0.6%, to 1,697.37. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 27.18 points, or 0.7%, to 3,665.77. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
06-Aug-2013 16:03
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Europe stocks flirt with seven-day winning streakLONDON (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets moved mostly higher at the open on Tuesday, setting the benchmark index on track for a seventh straight day of gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.2% to 305.33. Shares of Sky Deutschland AG rallied 6.9% after the media company reported earnings. Credit Agricole SA rose 4.7%, also after a well-received earnings report. On a more downbeat note, shares of Salzgitter AG dropped 9.7% after a profit warning. GlaxoSmithKline PLC lost 1.1% after Citigroup cut the drug maker to neutral from buy. Among country-specific indexes, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.2% to 4,059.16, while Germany's DAX 30 index was slightly lower at 8,397.14. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index fell 0.1% to 6,615.89. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
06-Aug-2013 13:27
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Investors poured $40.3 billion into stocks in July: TrimTabs ....Surprise! Investors have been pouring money into stocks. U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs saw a record inflow of $40.3 billion in July, according to data from TrimTabs. More than three-fourths of that went into U.S. equity ETFs, while the remainder went into mutual funds. Bond funds saw $21.1 billion in outflows in July, following on the record $69.1 billion in June. But cash remains even more popular than equities, with a combined inflow to savings deposits and retail money market funds of $143.4 billion, for the eight-week period ending July 22. Tom Bemis |
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stockpicker
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06-Aug-2013 10:24
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There are reasons for the calm in the market but dun be fooled..http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/el-erian-warns-dont-be-fooled-europes-tranquility |
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