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Predict when this financial turmoil will end
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ten4one
Master |
16-Oct-2008 08:51
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The change of Guards in the US could also delay the end of this Financial Crisis. It'll take quite awhile to sort-out the 'new committee' and you'll surely see lots of 'committe meetings' before actions - whatever you hear now are just 'salesmanship' talks. Such a huge ' ball of fires' definitely needs a long time to put-out....and don't forget at the same times 'smaller fires' start to surface. How long it takes to recover? Your guess is as good as mine or everybody else! Knowing the problem is one thing, solving it is another. The biggest problem now is no one really know how big is the problem! Cheers! |
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Arbitrager
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16-Oct-2008 02:02
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how long the 1930s Great Depression took.. i foresee this financial crisis will take at least 2-3times the duration to recover since now everything is leveraged. Reasons; 1.)Noone can determine the degree of leverage done on all these derivatives and degree of transparency of every individual banks to disclose their holdings. its a game theory among the banks, all of them have the incentive to keep their trump card unrevealled till the last. hence it hard for regulators to determine how much of such toxic derivatives they have. 2.) Noone can control the magnitude of the deleveraging process (how fast and how much) New York insurance department could not determine total CDS on AIGWASHINGTON -- The superintendent of the New York State Insurance Department told lawmakers Tuesday that a lack of transparency on credit-default swaps made it hard for the state to know the broader effects of what an American International Group Inc.
American International Group, Inc bankruptcy could potentially mean. In testimony before the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, Eric Dinallo said regulation of over-the-counter swaps is greatly needed, and he pointed to the state's own experience in this recent crisis.
"When we were dealing with finding a solution for AIG, we knew the company had written almost half a trillion in swaps, but we had no idea how much in swaps had been written on AIG itself or by whom," Dinallo said in his testimony.
"That meant we did not know what the broader effect of an AIG bankruptcy would be. Also, in our work on the bond insurers, we could not determine the total credit-default swaps written on companies such as MBIA and Ambac."
Recently, New York Gov. David Paterson announced that the state of New York will start regulating credit-default swaps as insurance, but Dinallo said Tuesday that federal regulation is also needed.
"I think regulation would be excellent for this market," Dinallo said.
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knightbridge
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16-Oct-2008 00:59
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When will the US Crisis end 3mth 6mth 1yr 2year or 5 years or more. Looking for people to share their view on the world economies. |
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