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7 bull years for Construction Stocks
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ninjaturtle
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26-Oct-2007 16:02
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half way to $1m my friend. Dun forget, I spent a lot of time learning my craft. I just look at any chart and draw lines now. Once I hit $1m, frankly, I can trade for the rest of my life. But for now, keep dayjob. |
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idesa168
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26-Oct-2007 15:39
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Which makes you a very rich dude where these 2 counters you made double and triple your initial investment. Good luck to you...can pass some over to me...lol |
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ninjaturtle
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26-Oct-2007 15:23
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no problem. I "learn" this scenario when I bought BBR at ave price of 8cents and Yongnam at 15cents. BBR went to 19cents, Yongnam went to 55cents. I sold BBR at 16cents and Yongnam at 50cents. I always wonder why Yongnam went so much ahead though the profit was not announced yet. Guess what, Yongnam profit is more than 3 times that of BBR (excluding the 1 time sale). So, profits drive everything. I only factored in the 2 development but BBR may have more up its sleeve with a slew of projects coming on board or even JV with our developers, you never know. |
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idesa168
Elite |
26-Oct-2007 15:12
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Thanks Ninjaturtle. I like your suggested scenario. I see that BBR is relying only on these 2 parcel of land development. Better that these tell a good story. If not.... |
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ninjaturtle
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26-Oct-2007 14:34
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EPS went down due to share placements ie.more shares floating in the market. Land was bought last year. PE is defintiely high based on current profit. Share trading volume is trickling at snail pace as no excitement from this counter. Need some sexy story to spice up which is why the announcement after the completion of sale is so important. Stock market always look 6 months ahead. The profit from development project is on accural basis and as recognition will only come in next year but share price will reflect the potential rev/profit. My 2cents worth of what will happen to BBR: 1. Announement made that all units are snapped up between $12m to $16m per unit. 2. Share shoot up to 19cents, major resistance. Sudden interest from retail investors in this counter and then "realised" that Holland Rd project is slated for launching in April, share price breaks major resistance at 19cents and go to 25cents or 30cents (if euphoric), profit taking sets in and settle down to mid 20cents. 3. It will din-dong between 21cents to 26cents. Annoucnement from BBR new contracts secured eg. MRT line project etc. 4. Another euphoric move to 30cents and maybe beyond. 5. Holland Rd launced in April and half already pre-sold (as got more units and not as expensive as Nassim Hill). BBR shares shoot to 40cents beyond. I hope the above scenario may be helpful. Of course, it is based on my previous trading experiences. |
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idesa168
Elite |
26-Oct-2007 13:30
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Sorry correction due to wrong numbers.....Hi ninjaturtle....very detail analysis from you. Thank you. Could you kindly help me interprt the following numbers. (1) Earning FY06 was 101,068 and EPS was 0.18¢. With strong earning this year 1H07 already surpassing FY06 of 106,588 but the EPS is a mere 0.08¢. Was there land parcel that they bought in this half and investment was factored in? (2) I had looked into the past one year trading volume and price and on average the volume were in the range of 3-10 million. Why isit so that today is just 210K traded. (3) PE of 64X based on rolling quarters numbers. Do you think it is high, and when the earning for the FY07 announce, will that reduce the PE?....I am on the lookout for some good counter for long term investment. Wonder BBR is a good choice. Please advise, thank you. |
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idesa168
Elite |
26-Oct-2007 13:28
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Hi ninjaturtle....very detail analysis from you. Thank you. Could you kindly help me interprt the following numbers. (1) Earning FY06 was 101,068 and EPS was 0.18¢. With strong earning this year 2H07 already surpassing FY06 of 106,588 but the EPS is a mere 0.08¢. Was there land parcel that they bought in this half and investment was factored in? (2) I had looked into the past one year trading volume and price and on average the volume were in the range of 3-10 million. Why isit so that today is just 210K traded. (3) PE of 64X based on rolling quarters numbers. Do you think it is high, and when the earning for the FY07 announce, will that reduce the PE?....I am on the lookout for some good counter for long term investment. Wonder BBR is a good choice. Please advise, thank you. |
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jackjames
Elite |
26-Oct-2007 12:29
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ninjaturtle, very good analysis, this is the info we want to see.. vested. Anything below 0.105, i will grab again... thanks for sharing dude.. |
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ninjaturtle
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26-Oct-2007 12:23
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Had a discussion with a developer yesterday. The net profit for a new freehold project is about 5 to 10% net margin. If the developer is also the builder, maybe can squeeze to 12%. My earlier estimation of 15% net profit maybe too optimistic due to rising charges. Assuming taking a 10% net margin which is quite safe: BBR Nassim Hill's average estimated profit 16 units x $3,000 psq x 4000 = $192,000,000 10% net margin = $19,200,000 share with Shin Kwan = $19,200,000 x 48% = $9,216,000 The profit is still pretty decent which is about CSC current prices as CSC full year net profit is about $8 m. So, the potential share price of BBR is about 30cents. So my target price for BBR is about 30cents excluding the profits of Holland Road development. If the MRT project and other construction projects as well as the Holland Road launching next April comes on, we may see 50cents by mid next year. |
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ninjaturtle
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26-Oct-2007 09:24
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BBR is the only counter I know fundamentally very well. Whereas, I trade the rest of the counters. Eg. I went into Parkway at $3.98 and Cosco at $7.50 yesterday as it break out from the descending trendline. The only reason I don't trade BBR is that penny stock that is less than 20cents is not good for trading. But I hold BBR simply because I believe it will easily hit 30cents and maybe 50cents when you combine the profits from Holland Road Condo and Nassim Hill. BBR will make me more than $1million when it hit past 40cents. So I am confident about BBR for the time being due to the two projects' profits. By the then, the market hear wind of what the potential profit is when they announced Nassim Hill is completely sold off, BBR should hit 20cents already. |
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EastonBay
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26-Oct-2007 08:23
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Ninjaturtle, u seem to know bbr very well. BBR also acquired a site in Holland road area...(Holland Crest) right? still high end.. not ultra high end like Nassim 8.. |
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psycho
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26-Oct-2007 03:08
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Luxury looking definitely, like jackjames, very tempted to load up some BBR for short term gains next morning if price stays at this level. So were you in the invitation list for the soft launch and took up a couple of units, ninjaturtle ? Thanks guys |
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jackjames
Elite |
25-Oct-2007 22:17
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http://www.8nassimhill.com/ thanks all, this is really a cool and super expensive condo, I don't even know BBR is part of the play.... shall load up somemore lost if it was anything below 0.105 ... |
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ninjaturtle
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25-Oct-2007 17:29
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Nassim Hill is by invitation only. Each unit is between $12m to $16m. That is why it is not launching. By the time, it is announced, all units will be taken up and BBR share price will sky rocket. |
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EastonBay
Master |
25-Oct-2007 16:56
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thanks... sean68 |
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sean68
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25-Oct-2007 15:27
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EastonBay, I got it from a friend who emailed me, it says from SIAS Research. Hope it helps 
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jackjames
Elite |
25-Oct-2007 12:31
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Vested today @ 0.105, with CPF. |
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EastonBay
Master |
25-Oct-2007 11:55
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sean68, may i ask where did u get the TP of 16c info from? Can u share pls? Developers are holding off high end developments due to general -ve sentiment... citydev has one project along Shelford Rd. The showrooms were done up at least 2 months back..and all ready to go. They are not launching yet..guess waiting for better psf pricing that comes with more positive sentiment. The difference in timing of launch can mean difference of millions of $ to bottomline. |
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ninjaturtle
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25-Oct-2007 09:59
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agreed totally. I am not looking at 16cents but beyond 20cents as have factored in Nassim Hill potential profit of $14million. You will know when BBR announced next month the launch of Nassim Hill, which by then all units have been sold out. |
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sean68
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25-Oct-2007 09:47
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Looking at this counter, advice needed. Any one not agreeing with the TP ? The construction business is doing well as margins are improving and the industry is awashed with jobs. However, it is the two property development projects which will propel FY08 earnings forward. At the current price of 11 cts, there is an upside potential of 45% over our target price of 16 cts. |
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