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at what price to buy?
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musicwhiz5
Senior |
26-Apr-2007 18:02
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I have already incorporated the FY 2007 portion of the contract in my computation. I am aware that the Brunei shell deal is recognised over 2 years. |
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hikitty
Master |
26-Apr-2007 09:52
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Sorry forgot to mention that the contra players were enjoying themselves, making $$$ for the past few trading sessions. Let the BBs now make them "give up" some of the gains! |
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hikitty
Master |
26-Apr-2007 09:48
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Thanks musicwhiz5 for the excellent FA. In fact it shd be lower coz not all the profit will be realised in 2007. With many similar players in the mkt for any trade, the growth is not unlimited for any company. |
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musicwhiz5
Senior |
26-Apr-2007 01:11
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I agree Swiber is overvalued now. Without more information on expansion into new markets, new customers and contracts, it will be hard to value the company any better. Currently, it is trading at 16x forward PE at $1.90, assuming 30% net profit margins based on their LOI and contracts as at March 31, 2007. I have used exchange rate of 1.51 USD:SGD for my computation. For a better valuation, 13x would be more conservative. This suggests a price of about $1.50-$1.55. Disclaimer: Do your own calculations before buying or selling. |
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hikitty
Master |
26-Apr-2007 00:08
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Swiber is now overvalued. Your remisier may be able to throw some light on the possible reason. or you may wish to refer to a recent write-up in Biz Times about the shares for the possible reason. It's not right for me to pinpoint the reason in SJ. Compared to the following companies (biz somewhat similar to Swiber's) whose earnings visibilities are many many times more than Swiber's and yet their prices (some of them cum dividend) and PEs (as at today) are: Keppel Corp $20.80 PE 21.983; Labroymarine: $2.31 PE 25.96 EZRA (biz is similar to Swiber's) $5.75 PE: 27.282 Swiber : $1.90 PE: 35.728 (running upwards for many days - without any new biz announcement or new"earnings visibility) Dont vest in Swiber now unless you don't mind to suffer paper loss (i.e. sweat money) You may not be fleet footed enough when there's a sudden price pullback.. |
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K.H.Neo
Member |
23-Apr-2007 11:51
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What happen suddenly there's a buy up can vest now can someone advise pls thanks. |
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rayphua
Member |
14-Apr-2007 00:39
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Guys, beware of the fake support at 1.4. Noticed 1000 lots disappear from 1.4 when it was at 1.4 and 1.41. |
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alexpenel
Member |
13-Apr-2007 16:25
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Now 1.41, catching up it bro, Swissco in term of volume |
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hikitty
Master |
05-Mar-2007 09:31
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Singaporeregal elite TA - can't thank you enough for your TA guidance and words of caution to SJ members. U're simply "fabulous" Furthermore, pse take any broker's analysis with a pinch of salt - it may have an axe to grind. |
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maxliukt
Member |
04-Mar-2007 22:58
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thanks singaporegal. I'll hold from buying. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
04-Mar-2007 22:29
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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May be on downtrend... be cautious |
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maxliukt
Member |
04-Mar-2007 19:34
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Hi, what's the target price for this share? |
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DanielXX
Member |
02-Mar-2007 17:57
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Good post. Where was this from? |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
02-Mar-2007 17:42
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It said on it would treble the size of its fleet in the next 3 years by adding 19 new vessels. Swiber builds and installs parts of offshore oil platforms, lays pipelines, and maintains mooring systems at offshore oil fields. It also has a fleet of 10 specialised offshore-support vessels that it charters out or uses for its own construction projects. The fleet expansion is aimed at raising Swiber's capabilities as a contractor for the offshore industry, CEO Raymond Goh told Reuters in an interview. "We want to establish ourselves as a turnkey contractor involved in the whole life-cycle of an offshore oilfield, from exploration, production to decommissioning," Goh said. Swiber Holdings' order book has shot up to US$186.5 million from just US$25.9 million at the close of 2006, Goh said. In the past few months, the company has announced a joint venture in India, secured US$33.8 million worth of contracts to charter offshore support vessels to India's BG Exploration and has won a US$147 million engineering contract from Shell to build structures at an oilfield off the coast of Brunei. "The profile of our customers shows that the industry trusts our capabilities. And given the increased offshore activity we need to get as many contracts as possible," Goh said. Swiber on Monday reported a 97% rise in full-year 2006 net profit, sending its shares to a record high of $1.42, compared to its November IPO price of $0.355. Goh said the company is now looking for a partner in the Middle East to secure business in that region and hopes to establish a joint venture in natural gas-rich Qatar. "Qatar will be our first stop in the Middle East and the hub from where we will target for business throughout the region," he said. Goh, a 39-year-old Malaysian national, said Swiber had operated out of Indonesia since 1996, mainly as a supplier of specialised tugs and barges for the offshore oil industry. It moved into marine and offshore engineering in 2002 and the listing in Singapore was part of that expansion plan. "We started with Indonesia, which is Southeast Asia's biggest oil producer. But as we increased our capabilities it was only natural to seek a base from where we can target business across Asia Pacific and the Middle East," Goh said, adding that Singapore was the obvious centre. Goh said about 80% of the US$186.5 million order book and 70% of revenue was from contracts to build offshore structures, but the company would still need more specialised vessels to raise its capabilities in marine engineering. He said 14 new vessels, which are being built in China, would be delivered in 2007. Between 2008 and 2009, Swiber plans to add a total of five considerably more expensive vessels. These include two anchor handlers tugs, one pipelaying barge, one jackup drilling barge and a sheerleg heavy-lift crane vessel. Goh said he was looking at ways of recouping some of the money used to pay for the fleet expansion, including launching a business trust which would own the fleet and lease the vessels to Swiber. "That is one of the several options of sell and lease-back arrangements we are looking at right now," Goh said. Swiber's local peers in the offshore vessels chartering business include Ezra and CH Offshore . In the marine engineering business it competes with firms such as Malaysia's Sime Engineering and J. Ray McDermott . |
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triston
Member |
26-Feb-2007 15:20
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company with a great potential. with such earnings visibility till 2008, this is a counter to park some money in . stunning results released. vested at 0.40, 0.90,1.02 and 1.38. slowly collecting :) |
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trymyluck
Senior |
15-Feb-2007 05:25
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resistance level should be 1.07 last reached in Nov'06 |
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smltimer
Senior |
14-Feb-2007 22:00
Yells: "So what does the crystal ball say ......." |
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mwzl95, you a TA? wonder what is the next resistance level? |
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mwzl95
Member |
14-Feb-2007 20:23
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It's on a strong uptrend! Just broke out of strong resistance at 0.96. |
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smltimer
Senior |
14-Feb-2007 19:33
Yells: "So what does the crystal ball say ......." |
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It's up!... further uptrend? Any guru care to comment? |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
14-Feb-2007 01:26
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Swiber?s wholly-owned subsidiary, Apecs Offshore Pte Ltd, clinched a US$146.6 million Letter of Intent from Shell in Brunei. It is Swiber's single largest EPCIC contract to date, and the Group?s maiden project in the thriving Brunei market. Apecs Offshore Pte Ltd, clinched a US$146.6 million Letter of Intent from Shell in Brunei. It is Swiber's single largest EPCIC contract to date, and the Group?s maiden project in the thriving Brunei market.
Commencing in 2Q FY2007, Swiber expects to realise approximately US$70.5 million in 2007, and the remaining US$76.1 million in 2008. |
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