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ST Engg
redash
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08-Jul-2008 15:43     
 
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More to this stock on ST Eng is that there is still no clear cut (if you are applying TA) where this stock is going... if you observe the pattern of THIS stock for the past few months (Hope those investing in this one do their homework and have a little "BACKTEST" done...) The moment it raise, it will pummel the next day and this pattern cycles a few times VERY frequently...

In short, better take a view on this one "From the side" (Clearer to view) and play other more obvious counters =D

 

 
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178investors
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08-Jul-2008 15:39     
 
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I feel there is no harm listening to others' takes on a company. Typically, I look at analysts' reports to gain insight into information that they have access to from companies and also for their macro views of industry and sector they are covering. I don't pay too much attention to their target price. From analysts' information, I then try to understand their arguments about companies' prospects. Finally to buy, sell or hold is individual's own decision.

Best of luck to every long term investors.
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redash
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08-Jul-2008 15:32     
 
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Just in case for those CFD traders who has yet to truely understand the system... there is one "Forced Closing of Position" rule when you cannot top up yr margin call.

 

So If I am a BB, and I know that there are lots of CFD playing around in my "merry-go-round" (READ: Counter) I can "hit" them by playing the opposite direction if I have the majority of the "total" "accumulated" "strength". Usually, this will create a short term "chaos" and stocks can be picked up at a more ideal pricing. that is more favourable for me  (READ: Forced Closing Position)

 

Just a little "Strategy" I can apply on when one is "energised" enough once in a while ...

Trade with Care, NOT LUCK =)
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elfinchilde
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08-Jul-2008 15:19     
 
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edit:

yea, watch what all the 'gurus' say. everyone always remembers only their last words, so they look accurate. but really, because they're so influential, a word from them moves the markets. How many people actually remember that they shift their calls like nobody's business?

ie, when all the gurus are saying sell, that is when you look to buy (look, not immediately buy). when they all say "the worst is over" (like in march this year), that is when you look to ride it and then sell.

Remember that they are vested; they are the BBs. When they want to sell, someone needs to buy. When they want to buy, someone needs to sell. So why do retailers put so much faith in these 'experts'? If we were to actually track all the analyst reports, and compare their 12 mth target vs the actual px one year later, how many of them hit the mark?

Or let's put it another way. Yes, they're educated, yes they hold the titles, but it's like a thief going "trust me, s'pore is safe, no need to lock your doors."

Would you trust that person?

It's to do with one thing: Vested interests. always check your source, never blindly trust it.
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elfinchilde
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08-Jul-2008 15:09     
 
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DCA = dollar cost averaging. where you put your money in slowly, via parts, rather than one 'whack' at one shot. really, wouldn't advise 'whacking' at this point in time.

relax lah......

eh.....no signal for 2nd salvo...soldier, you moved too early lah.....in which case, please wait  for the lowest low before you fire your 3rd.....your clearest signal is if the market dips, but the stock closes at about the same level, for days. Remember that your time frame is 6 mths or more. So what's the hurry for a few cents movement....(lemme guess, you bought on the upswing...)

plus, if i don't post, it means status quo, nothing new, hence no need to update. elves are small, they need to  a lot. muah haha.

In investing, you should be Cool  and not  .....

Hee. sorry. couldn't resist that last emoticon. pai tee kong.  
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HLJHLJ
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08-Jul-2008 14:20     
 
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Thanks Elfin. So warm to hear from you again. At least won't panic for the time being. However, if other people panic, I think I will also panic....LOL.

Due to my impatience (never changed somehow), i've already fired my 2nd salvo (artillery term for strikes). I think paper loss of about 3% (eat grass soon) Waiting for my 3rd salvo. Will take your advice this time (wait for 5 to 7 days of inactivity before firing my 3rd salvo.

I think this round is bad. All the gurus like Wee, Jim Roger, Mark of templeton came out to "shout". I think sure down one. When down, then they buy, i think. Then people call them gurus because they are right. Wow, they sure win one.We retailers how to fight?

BTW, what is DCA?

 



elfinchilde      ( Date: 08-Jul-2008 13:35) Posted:

in case those who followed my call are panicking over the drop today:

note post as per below. the call for 3 strikes via DCA, to hold longterm, so as to manage money and risk profile.

has anything changed since then? No.

hence, no cause for panic.

Simply wait for the second strike, or first if you haven't went in.  Your second strike will be if the px stays at that level, without much movement for at least 3 days, if not 5.

This is an eg of longterm TA blended with the DCA technique of FA.

Note external conditions: expect very volatile US conditions these two weeks as the Dow components report their results (Alcoa and Gen Motors lead the way); earning season is in. Bernanke testifies today and tomorrow. The inside talk on oil is that it should hit 150 within these two weeks. Look longterm: If the px at closing remains about the same, these represent opportunities to buy.

Stay calm above all. Smiley 



elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted:



If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x.

By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario.

first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32.

upside possible is to 3.2-3.3.

Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least).

To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember.

Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.   

Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.  

Caveat applies to the above as per usual. 


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elfinchilde
Elite
08-Jul-2008 13:35     
 
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in case those who followed my call are panicking over the drop today:

note post as per below. the call for 3 strikes via DCA, to hold longterm, so as to manage money and risk profile.

has anything changed since then? No.

hence, no cause for panic.

Simply wait for the second strike, or first if you haven't went in.  Your second strike will be if the px stays at that level, without much movement for at least 3 days, if not 5.

This is an eg of longterm TA blended with the DCA technique of FA.

Note external conditions: expect very volatile US conditions these two weeks as the Dow components report their results (Alcoa and Gen Motors lead the way); earning season is in. Bernanke testifies today and tomorrow. The inside talk on oil is that it should hit 150 within these two weeks. Look longterm: If the px at closing remains about the same, these represent opportunities to buy.

Stay calm above all. Smiley 



elfinchilde      ( Date: 29-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted:



If you're talking about FA, then STE's NAV is only 57c. generally, fair value is given at 1.5-3x book to price ratio. This counter has temasek backing though; so it's very unlikely you'll see 1.5x book to price ratio, or even 2x.

By technicals, past 3 years data: you'd have to DCA to prepare for 3 strikes, in a worst case scenario.

first entry is ~2.87. second strike at ~2.66. third strike at ~2.32.

upside possible is to 3.2-3.3.

Note: above is strictly for longterm holding only (>3 mths; likely 6 mths at least).

To share a bit more abt a longterm trading strat: all prices quoted above are fluid targets only, as determined by the S/R levels off price/vol charts of the past three years. Exact entry prices may not hit 2.32 or even 2.66: your actual strike is dependent on midterm charting: it may be 2.4, or 2.7 or whatever. Just as your exact exit will be determined by the shorter term charts. Think fluid, remember.

Why you have to prepare for 3 strikes in this specific counter is in the event of a worst case scenario. ie, you may or may not get all 3 strikes, since the aim of a longterm strat is to reduce the risk by going in, in portions. Such that if it rebounds, you at least get some benefits off the 1st/2nd entry; but if it goes down, you're not stuck yet as you still can buy in.   

Not to be mistaken with quick scalps or midterm trading. And note, only do DCA if you have the clarity of mind and nerves for it: whatever else you do, don't be abandoning a strat halfway and bailing out, then regretting it when it goes up after. Keep your mind very clear on what you are doing. Consistency of method needs to be applied. Also note that DCA does not work for all counters. Stock selection is very important.  

Caveat applies to the above as per usual. 

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trader88.sg
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08-Jul-2008 10:34     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Can ST Engg's rebound sustain?
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trader88.sg
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06-Jul-2008 18:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For all you know, this so-called anal-ysts are just fresh graduates. What hand-on experience do they have???
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trader88.sg
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06-Jul-2008 17:52     
 
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 Alert Admin 		TA, TA, TA, TA, TA, TA.... is the way to go!
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CWQuah
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06-Jul-2008 17:25     
 
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Heh - Let's just say that Cosco buy and sell reports came from one of the biggest global banks which changed its CEO not too long ago on the back of the subprime writeoffs.

Sell Cosco when it was already 2.9X.... within the next 7 days Cosco rebounded to 3.69. Buy Cosco when it was 3.41... look at where Cosco is now.

Funnymental analysts, er, fundamentals analyst indeed.



elfinchilde      ( Date: 05-Jul-2008 16:20) Posted:



heh. if this doesn't prove it already....don't believe too much in what analysts say and what 'fundamentals' they are talking about: the reality is that few analysts even grasp the concept of fundamentals here. they are mostly operating on rote concepts they've learnt rather than real application: which requires deep digging and minute calculation of value.

the second reality is that the s'pore market is really too small to be a fundamental-based market. As a technical trader, you'll know that most counters here don't move on fundamentals at all. And a side note: those who say TA doesn't work are probably not really applying TA (alternatively, they're using wrong tools for the specific stock), but are making emotive calls instead: ie, the failure is not technical, it is human.  

you need to be able to blend TA and FA for this market.

btw, watch carefully the names of the analysts who publish reports. you will see a pattern between calls and movements of the stock. esp for counters such as cosco. 'nuff said.

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elfinchilde
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05-Jul-2008 16:20     
 
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heh. if this doesn't prove it already....don't believe too much in what analysts say and what 'fundamentals' they are talking about: the reality is that few analysts even grasp the concept of fundamentals here. they are mostly operating on rote concepts they've learnt rather than real application: which requires deep digging and minute calculation of value.

the second reality is that the s'pore market is really too small to be a fundamental-based market. As a technical trader, you'll know that most counters here don't move on fundamentals at all. And a side note: those who say TA doesn't work are probably not really applying TA (alternatively, they're using wrong tools for the specific stock), but are making emotive calls instead: ie, the failure is not technical, it is human.  

you need to be able to blend TA and FA for this market.

btw, watch carefully the names of the analysts who publish reports. you will see a pattern between calls and movements of the stock. esp for counters such as cosco. 'nuff said.
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shplayer
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05-Jul-2008 09:30     
 
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cyjjerry85,

BT article 4 July

Published July 4, 2008
ST Engg sees new period of growth

Aviation industry slowdown could provide growth opportunities, it says

 

By CHEW XIANG

 

THE aviation industry slowdown could well turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engg).

 

'20 per cent of ST Aero revenue in future is expected to come from converting passenger aircraft for freight purposes.'
- Mr Tan


In an interview with BT yesterday, the group's president and chief executive officer, Tan Pheng Hock, said the impact of a slowdown in the aviation industry on the company was 'minimal' at worst and could even provide growth opportunities.

'Today is the best time to look at acquisitions to get access to markets and technology,' he said. 'For the last four years we have been buying companies, and this period may well be a good opportunity to accelerate the plan.'

Mr Tan's words came amid a fall in the share price of ST Engg, which at $2.77 yesterday was a dollar lower than at the beginning of the year. The price drop, which came amid market turmoil over the US sub-prime crisis, saw the stock shed 15 per cent in value in June alone.

Mr Tan said the slump in ST Engg's share price could also be due to investor concern about the impact of a slowdown in the US aviation industry on its aerospace arm, ST Aerospace, which does third-party maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) work for airlines in Asia and the United States.

ST Aero contributes roughly half of ST Engg's revenues and slightly more than half its profit.

But Mr Tan pointed out that fleet reductions in the US by ST Aero customers such as Delta and Northwest would have little impact on ST Aero.

He said the cutbacks were mostly in old fuel guzzlers, rather than the modern more efficient planes ST Aero was mostly servicing.

'The impact, if any, is minimal if at all,' Mr Tan said, adding that as the existing fleets get worked more heavily, maintenance needs may actually increase.

Another ST Aero customer, Federal Express, recently reported a quarterly loss and issued a profit warning, but Mr Tan said this could even be positive for ST Aero as FedEx is in the process of converting old Boeing 757s to freight carriers, meaning that ST Aero could book higher revenues from such conversion projects.

Mr Tan said he saw 20 per cent of the company's revenue in future coming from converting passenger aircraft for freight purposes, citing an Airbus study predicting that freighter fleets will almost triple in the next 20 years.

And in the longer term, ST Aero will benefit as carriers find it more cost-efficient to outsource MRO work, he said.

MRO outsourcing is projected to grow from 52 per cent of the market last year to 73 per cent in 2017.

ST Aero has been linked with a US$1 billion deal to service Lion Air's new fleet of Boeings.

Mr Tan confirmed ST Aero was interested and said it would be a good partnership. 'We think they are very strong in this market, and they can leverage on our safety record.'

Analysts have lowered target prices and in one case downgraded the stock of ST Engg.

DBS Vickers analyst Janice Chua said in a research note that the company was fully valued with a 12-month target of $2.80, down from $3.50.

'ST Aerospace's earnings can be a key indicator on the group's overall performance and share price tends to be more vulnerable to bad news in the aviation sector,' she noted.
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cyjjerry85
Elite
05-Jul-2008 01:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ar...missed it...what did business times say?

yunglee      ( Date: 04-Jul-2008 08:47) Posted:



See business times.


 
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HLJHLJ
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05-Jul-2008 01:36     
 
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TA is good man! Past few days, vol is high as well.
Short term MA is merging! 7-day Williams at 50%!
Maybe I'll pick up on Monday if not negative.
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Applet123
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04-Jul-2008 09:30     
 
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It's definitely a reversal sign.
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yunglee
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04-Jul-2008 08:47     
 
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See business times.


 
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yunglee
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04-Jul-2008 08:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes
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kosong_81
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03-Jul-2008 23:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		is this a reversal signal ?????
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cyjjerry85
Elite
03-Jul-2008 10:49     
 
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 Alert Admin 		steadily into the green today
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