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Rubber prices
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
19-Dec-2006 23:24
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Tokyo rubber future rose to a two-month high on Tuesday after breaking the closely-watched level of 220.0 yen, backed by firm oil prices and Goodyear's resumption of talks with striking workers. The benchmark Tokyo rubber futures for May delivery settled at 222.0 yen per kg, up 5.2 yen from Monday's close. It hit an intraday high of 222.6 yen, the highest since Oct. 31. The first meeting in more than a month between Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. , the largest U.S. tyre maker, and its workers supported TOCOM prices, dealers said. "The news that Goodyear was back in talks with the union workers signalled that demand for rubber will rise again," a dealer in Tokyo said. Goodyear and the United Steelworkers met on Monday to resume formal talks to settle a 10-week-old strike by 15,000 union workers in the United States and Canada. Profit taking that occured when prices rose above 220.0 yen limited TOCOM gains. Prices were expected to rise to the next resistance of 240.0 yen, supported by the coming dry season when rubber trees shed their leaves and produce less latex. Unseasonal rain in southern Thailand, the country's main rubber growing area, which disrupted tapping and cut domestic supply, also helped boost physical prices. Some pessimistic traders though were not sure prices would rise significantly, saying they could fall after the expiry of the December contract if a large volume of deliveries was to be made that day. Asian physical rubber prices were higher on Tuesday. Chinese buyers came into the market again, checking offer prices because they feared prices may rise further following the rise on TOCOM, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
19-Dec-2006 16:26
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Tokyo rubber futures rose again on Tuesday, jumping above a closely-watched level of 220.0 yen to a six-week high on firm oil and rising physical rubber prices. At 0359 GMT, the benchmark Tokyo rubber futures for May delivery was at 220.3 yen per kg, the highest since Nov. 2. The contract has risen about 6% since touching a low of 207.6 yen on Thursday. Oil above US$60 a barrel have encouraged speculators to take fresh buy positions after Monday's rise as firmer oil prices usually stimulate a shift in demand to NR from SR. However, prices were expected to slide if profit taking took them back below 220 yen, with speculators likely to push prices down ahead of the December contract's expiry on Friday, dealers said. Some traders were also careful about taking large long positions this week as prices could fall after the expiry of the December contract if a large volume of deliveries was to be made that day. On the physical front, Asian physical rubber prices were higher on Tuesday, a day after Tokyo rubber futures rallied to near a one-week high on technical support. Unseasonal rain in southern Thailand, the country's main rubber growing area, which disrupted tapping and cutting domestic supply, also helped boost physical prices. However, trading was thin, with a few Chinese buyers waiting to buy for January shipment at lower prices, dealers said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
19-Dec-2006 14:49
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Asian physical rubber prices were higher on Tuesday, a day after Tokyo rubber futures rallied to near a one-week high on technical support. Tokyo rubber futures jumped to their highest since Nov. 10 on Tuesday as the firmness of oil prices since last week encouraged speculators to take fresh buy positions, dealers said. There has been unseasonal rain in southern Thailand, the country's main rubber growing area, disrupting tapping and cutting domestic supply. Physical trade was thin, with a few Chinese buyers waiting to buy for January shipment at lower prices, dealers said. |
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zhuge_liang
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18-Dec-2006 13:17
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Tokyo rubber futures rose 2% on Monday as prices held despite falls of other commodities, triggering buying on technical factors. Rubber prices rose to 214.1 yen per kg in the morning as the strength of oil prices induced short-covering which continued in the afternoon. At 0427 GMT, the key rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for May delivery was at 215.0 yen per kg, up 4.1 yen from Friday's close. It rose as high as 215.5 yen, or around 2%. "Other commodites were weak, but rubber did not follow that trend, so players went back on the buying side," a dealer in Tokyo said. "I think TOCOM prices should rise further as there were big buyers and speculative day-traders in the market expecting to buy more," another dealer in Japan said. TOCOM rubber prices were vulnerable to speculative selling on expectation that prices could fall after the expiry of the December contract on Friday if a large volume of deliveries was to be made that day. On the physical front, Asian rubber prices were higher on Monday, supported by rain in producing countries and the rise in TOCOM prices. However, lingering concerns over high stocks in Japan, the absence of Chinese buyers and thin demand ahead of the year-end holidays limited the rise, traders said. |
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Jennie
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18-Dec-2006 12:59
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Nostradamus, thanks for your reply. Will watch out for those factors. Indon and Thai have already voiced out that they will be cutting exports. So I think that when they actually proceed to do so, we will see prices recover further plus the coming wintering in the 3 main producing countries. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
15-Dec-2006 19:45
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I think it has a bit more to fall. Maybe around $0.085. |
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Nostradamus
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15-Dec-2006 12:38
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Asian physical rubber prices were mostly up on Friday, a day after Tokyo rubber futures However, Tokyo rubber futures fell from their early highs on Friday as traders locked in profits given ample supply in Southeast Asia, dealers said. Physical trade was expected to remain thin, with most buyers from the United States and Europe having closed deals for January shipment ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays, dealers said. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
14-Dec-2006 11:42
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strong support at 9c. can accumulate from this as a base for future upward movement yah? |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-Dec-2006 11:36
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Asian physical rubber prices were weaker for some grades on Thursday following falls on the Tokyo rubber futures Tokyo rubber futures edged up in early trade but profit-taking capped the gains. Futures had dropped nearly 3% on Wednesday. Physical trade was thin, with few deals done overnight, dealers said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-Dec-2006 10:50
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Tokyo rubber futures may rise around 2% by the end of December and strengthen further in January, driven by purchases from main buyer China and a dry spell in Southeast Asia, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The most active rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange , currently May 2007, could fetch 206.25 yen per kg by the end of December, from 202.0 yen at end-November, according to a median forecast of 10 analysts and dealers polled by Reuters. Forecasts ranged from 170 yen to 230 yen. The benchmark contract was forecast to trade at a median of 212.5 yen per kg by end-January, said the same dealers and analysts. "Recent recovery in prices are understandable considering views that China could start buying next year before Lunar New Year holidays," said Shuji Sugata, assistant manager at Mitsubishi Corp. Futures and Securities Ltd. "Also production usually drops as producing countries enter wintering," said Sugata. During the dry wintering season, which normally begins in main producer Thailand in January, rubber trees shed leaves and latex output falls. Wintering usually begins in Malaysia in late February, while in Indonesia it starts in March. "It's possible to see some downward correction after recent rallies," said Takashi Ogura, a manager at Kanetsu Asset Management. "But the market appears to have factored in bearish factors like a huge build-up in Japanese stocks when the price fell to about 185 yen, so another sharp fall in prices is unlikely." "Sentiment could be lifted if Chinese buyers, who have been resting recently, actually start purchasing ahead of their New Year holidays," he said. Japanese rubber futures, which set the tone for physical prices, have seen volatile trading in recent weeks. The benchmark contract tumbled to a one-year low of 185.5 yen in late November on fund selling before bouncing back on a technical correction, and recently due to news that Thailand and Indonesia plan to cut exports. But Sugata of Mitsubishi Corp. Futures and Securities remained cautious. "News about the plans by Thailand and Indonesia to cut production was a clear factor, but considering that the market is in contango, I don't think traders would be comfortable about holding large long positions in distant contracts," he said. "Prices are well supported now but TOCOM rubber is still fragile. People are watching how prices behave after the December contract expires later in the month," said Sugata. "Overall sentiment could be depressed again if a front-month contract comes under pressure again after the expiry," he said. Tokyo rubber has lost 35% in value since spiking to a 26-year high of 324.5 yen in mid-June. The most active contract rose 1.2 yen per kg to 210.5 yen by 0118 GMT on Thursday. "I think the downtrend should end. By the end of 2006, prices should head up and supply gradually fall," said Prapas Euranontat, manager of A.T.S. Rubber Co. Ltd, adding that China's rubber imports may rise around 15% in 2007. China was expected to consume 3.8 million tonnes of natural and synthetic rubber in 2006, from 3.6 million tonnes in 2005, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. Forecasts for TOCOM sixth-month rubber prices in yen per kg: end-December 2006 end-January 2007 Median 206.25 212.5 Highest 230 240 Lowest 170 165 |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
13-Dec-2006 21:27
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Hi Jennie, Apart from the weather, other factors which influence rubber prices are production or export cut, oil prices, TA, etc. So many factors. HTH. |
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Jennie
Member |
13-Dec-2006 18:22
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I've been trying to track the rubber prices on Tocom and on the other exchanges as well. However prices seemed so unpredictable. It looks like prices are not driven by market fundamentals at present. I'm quite confused as to how to gauge the prices. Anyone has a view on what's steering the direction of prices other than the weather. Sorry if this is a lousy question. I'm really inexperience in this area but would love to learn. Actually I'm also trying to gather information on the major exporter and importer countries of natural rubber in the world, major producer of natural rubber and how to make projections for the subsequent years. Not sure if anyone can help. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
13-Dec-2006 12:11
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Asian physical rubber prices were steady on Wednesday as dealers awaited clearer direction from Tokyo rubber futures , which were little changed from Tuesday. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
12-Dec-2006 11:07
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Asian physical rubber prices were mostly unchanged on Tuesday as dealers waited for more direction from the Japanese market. Tokyo rubber futures fell by 1% on profit taking after posting sharp gains over last week, reflecting growing wariness over supplies as key producers said they could cut output to support prices. |
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chendes
Member |
11-Dec-2006 11:43
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Asian physical rubber prices were unchanged on Monday, with main producer Thailand out of action because of a public holiday. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
08-Dec-2006 13:54
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Tokyo rubber futures rose again on Friday morning as bargain hunting lingered and higher crude oil prices lent support. At 0404 GMT, the benchmark Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber for May delivery was at 209.1 yen per kg, up 3.5 yen from Thursday's close. The benchmark rose as high as 210.1 yen in early trade as bargain hunters continued buying, expecting prices to rise. Rubber futures rose in line with U.S. crude oil futures , which edged up toward US$63 in early Asian trade on Friday ahead of a meeting next week at which OPEC will decide whether to cut output further. Rubber futures should rise further in the afternoon as speculators were expected to push prices above 210.0 yen, the level at which they could take profit, dealers said. Prices were expected to move in the range of 200.0-220.0 yen over the next weeks, supported by an unclear supply outlook with the upside still limited by profit taking, dealers said. Thailand, the world's biggest producer of rubber, said it could suspend exports for a few weeks this month to help prices, and Indonesia, the second-biggest producer, said it would cut exports by 10% next year. The announcements came after the benchmark sixth-month contract on TOCOM fell as low as 185.5 yen in late November, a one-year low. On the physical front, Asian rubber prices were barely changed on Friday as the rises on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange lent support. However, thin demand kept a lid on any potential rises, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
07-Dec-2006 19:07
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Tokyo rubber futures were little changed in slow and directionless trade on Thursday, and prices struggled to rise above 210.0 yen with investors divided over the prospect of rubber supply. The benchmark Tokyo Commodity Exchange for May delivery ended the morning at 204.5 yen per kg as bargain hunters took profits when prices rose to around 206.0 yen. However, dealers said they did not expect prices to fall below 200.0 yen, the key support which would trigger speculative buying. Rubber futures stayed in line with bearish oil futures, which were steady above US$62 a barrel on Thursday amid forecasts of weaker demand, traders said. But concerns about declining supply lent psychological support to prices, preventing rubber futures from falling significantly. Thailand, the world's biggest rubber producer, has said it might suspend exports this month to help prices and Indonesia, the world's second-largest producer, said it would cut exports by 10% next year. The Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) also said it would urge other Southeast Asian rubber producers to slash exports by at least 10% next year to help push up prices. The statement late on Wednesday helped push Asian physical rubber prices up a little, traders said. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
06-Dec-2006 12:01
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this counter is like cenersave. good co. but price just refuse to move.. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
06-Dec-2006 11:33
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Asian physical rubber prices rose on Wednesday after Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber producer after Thailand, said it would cut rubber exports by 10% in 2007. However, a rise in Japanese rubber stocks and thin demand from Chinese buyers limited the rise, traders said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
01-Dec-2006 21:25
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Tokyo rubber futures fell sharply on Friday, reversing early gains as stop-loss selling set in after prices dipped below the key 200 yen level. Benchmark rubber futures, currently May 2007, fell more than 4% to as low as 193.2 yen per kg in the afternoon before closing at 193.9 yen, down 8.1 yen from Thursday's close. The benchmark contract rose to a two-week high of 205.0 yen on Thursday, prompting some investors to take profit. "Profit taking was triggered after prices could not break 205.0 yen since yesterday," a dealer in Tokyo said "Prices were heading down as players rushed to stop losses after they saw prices easily broke 200 yen," he said. Prices were expected to drop further next week and could hit 188.0 yen per kg in the near term, dealers said. "The market broke 200 yen too easily and never went back above 200 yen after that," another dealer in Tokyo said. The International Rubber Consortium, or IRCo, met for the second day in Bangkok on Friday to come up with measures to support prices. But dealers said they doubted the meeting would yield results. "I don't think they would do anything. They don't have enough money to intervene in the market," a dealer said. Sang Udomjarumani, IRCo's head, told Reuters measures discussed included export controls, managing supplies by re-planting trees, or IRCo stepping in to buy rubber and keep it in stock. The result of the meeting was expected to be announced later in the day, he said. On the physical front, Asian physical rubber prices were steady as dealers waited for leads from Tokyo rubber futures and the outcome of the IRCo meeting. |
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