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zhuge_liang Supreme	29-Dec-2006 18:57        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures ended mixed on Friday, with shorter contracts up on supply concerns while longer contracts dipped on profit-taking, traders said. The January contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange closed at 239.2 yen per kg, up 1.2 yen from Thursday's close. Near-term contracts are getting a boost from supply concerns as heavy rain and floods affect tapping in Indonesia and Malaysia -- the world's number 2 and 3 rubber producers. But the weather had less of an impact on long-term contracts. The June contract settled at 252.0 yen, down 2.0 yen from Thursday's close. Dealers said players had locked in profits on some contracts before the year-end holidays. They said the underlying technical trend remained bullish, with rubber prices having risen over 30% this month. "For the June contract, it's time to cash in, especially for players who bought contracts when it was around 245.0 yen," a dealer in Singapore said. On Thursday, June TOCOM rubber broke through its 200-day moving average of around 252 yen for the first time since late August. TOCOM rubber closed at the midsession break at 0200 GMT on Friday and will resume trading on Jan. 4. Dealers said TOCOM prices may ease over the next few weeks on profit-taking, but supply fears would prevent them from breaking support at 240.0 yen. On the physical front, most grades of rubber in Asia were steady.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	29-Dec-2006 00:59        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures ended higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, hovering near a four-month high on speculative buying fuelled by supply concerns. The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for June delivery settled at 254.0 yen per kg, up 5.9 yen from Wednesday's close. It rose as high as 254.5 yen per kg, the highest since Aug. 28. "There has been speculative buying since early this week due to supply concerns," a dealer in Singapore said. Supply worries have been a big factor behind the rise in TOCOM prices as rain and floods hit Indonesia and Malaysia -- the world's number two and number three rubber producers -- disrupting tapping and transportation. But some dealers expected prices to ease on Friday as the recent gains tempted investors to grab profits. "Prices stayed above 250.0 yen, giving quite a big gap to take profit before the year-end holiday," a dealer in Tokyo said. On the physical front, prices of Asian rubber rose again on Thursday, led by Thai RSS3, but trade was thin as some buyers turned to other sources for rubber. "We hardly sell at these high prices. They rely too much on TOCOM and we cannot compete," said a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber hub. Prices for Indonesia's SIR20 and Malaysia's SMR20 have risen on concerns over falling supply, but they are still cheaper than Thai RSS3 and STR20 due to lower production costs. Some Chinese buyers were in talks to buy rubber directly from Indonesian producers instead of buying from middlemen in Singapore, an Indonesian trader said. "But we were reluctant to sell directly as we are not familiar with the shipping process and don't want to take any risk," the trader said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	28-Dec-2006 17:51        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Asian physical rubber prices rose again on Thursday, tracking a rise on TOCOM to a fresh four-month high in early trade, supported by bullish technical sentiment.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	28-Dec-2006 17:32        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures hit a four-month high on Thursday, with speculative buying fuelled by supply concerns as rains and floods hit rubber producing countries. The key benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for June delivery ended morning trade at 249.4 yen per kg, up 1.3 yen from Wednesday's close. Technical buying was strong after the contract rose more than 30% from this month's low of 190.5 yen on Dec. 4. Players continued to buy contacts because they feared that prices would rise further, but some Japanese traders said prices were rising too fast. "There was talk on the market that tyre makers still need to buy more rubber after the year-end holiday and that spurred speculative buying on TOCOM," a dealer in Tokyo said. "We've seen heavy rounds of short-squeezing, but I'm nervous now as recent gains have been too rapid. It's about time that we saw a technical correction before going up further," another Japanese dealer said. Dealers said they expected TOCOM prices to test resistance at 250.0 yen per kg before succumbing to profit takers or a technical correction. On the physical front, prices of Asian rubber rose again on Thursday, led by Thai RSS3, but trade was thin as some buyers turned to other sources for rubber. "We hardly sell at these high prices. They rely too much on TOCOM and we cannot compete," said a trader in Thailand's Hat Yai rubber hub. Supply worries have been a key factor as rains and floods hit Indonesia and Malaysia -- the world's number two and number three rubber producers -- disrupting tapping and transportation. Prices for Indonesia's SIR20 and Malaysia's SMR20 have risen but are still cheaper than Thai RSS3 and STR20 due to lower production costs. Some Chinese buyers were in talks to buy rubber directly from Indonesian producers instead of buying from middle men in Singapore, an Indonesian trader said. "But we were reluctant to sell directly as we are not familiar with the shipping process and don't want to take any risk," the trader said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	27-Dec-2006 23:58        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures ended higher in busy trade on Wednesday amid active stop-loss buying demand as profit takers stepped back. The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange  for June delivery settled at 248.1 yen per kg, up 3.2 yen or 1.3% from Tuesday's close. The benchmark rebounded from losses in early trade as investors who took short positions needed to buy contracts heavily after prices continued to rise. Dealers said they expected prices to rise further over the next few days to test resistance of 250.0 yen per kg, although said prices should face some technical correction on the way up. "Profit-taking could be triggered at somewhere near 250.0 yen," a dealer in Singapore said. Bullish sentiment was backed by both fundamental and technical factors, traders said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	27-Dec-2006 17:22        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Japanese rubber futures slipped in morning trade on Wednesday as players adjusted positions after a rally to near a four-month high on Tuesday. The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for June delivery was down 1.7 yen at 243.2 yen per kg by the end of the morning session. Traders attributed the decline to profit taking after prices surged to 246.0 yen on Tuesday, hitting the daily upper 10-yen limit on TOCOM. "There was big room to take profit after yesterday's rally, especially for speculative day-traders," a dealer in Tokyo said. Another factor which dragged TOCOM prices lower was technical selling as players adjusted their positions, dealers said. "They rearranged what they had in hand," another Japanese dealer said. "May contracts rolled over into June contracts." Dealers expected a further slide in the afternoon session as investors continued to grab profits. But prices were not expected to fall below the key support level of 240.0 yen, which is backed by technical and fundamental factors, they said. Physical rubber prices are not expected to rise high enough over the next few days to force buyers away, traders said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	27-Dec-2006 17:06        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Asian physical rubber prices were higher on Wednesday, tracking gains on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange which neared a four-week high on Tuesday. Physical rubber prices were also supported by less supply as rains and floods hit Indonesia and Malaysia -- the world's number two and number three rubber producers -- disrupting tapping and transportation, traders said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	26-Dec-2006 23:49        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	zhuge_liang Senior Posted: 15-Dec-2006 19:45   I think it has a bit more to fall. Maybe around $0.085. Fell to $0.085 and rebounded as expected. Heavy rains would lift prices.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	23-Dec-2006 00:32        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures rallied to an eight-week high on Friday as unusual rains in southern Thailand lent fundamental support. News that Bridgestone Corp. was planning to build a new large plant in Japan provided extra support, while healthy technical factors also induced strong buying. Five coastal districts in southern Thailand were declared natural disaster zones as pounding waves and strong winds struck, the Meteorological Department. A cold front from China was expected to bring more storms to the region over the next few days, the department said on its Web site.Southern Thailand produces around 90% of the country's natural rubber. "Prices of USS3 rose after the news spread, not because of falling supply but because local traders declined to sell," a trader in the southern Thai town of Hat Yai said. The benchmark May contract on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange reached a session high of 232 yen per kg -- the highest for a lead contract since Oct. 27. The market is watching whether it can hold above the 100-day moving average of 226.8 yen until the end of the day. The December contract, due to expire at midday, was down 2.8 yen, or 1.3%, at 205.0 yen. Bridgestone said on Thursday it planned to invest 32 billion yen, most of it on a new plant in Japan to boost output of highly profitable large and ultra-large radial tyres. It will be Bridgestone's first new factory in Japan in more than 30 years, suggesting the market would continue to see strong demand in the long-run. Bridgestone, which competes with bigger rival Michelin and third-ranked Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. , said it expected global demand for construction-use tyres, now nearly 400,000 tonnes a year, to increase about 20 percent by 2011. On the physical front, Asian physical rubber prices were steady to slightly higher on Friday, with offers for Thai RSS3 up due to the unseasonal rain in southern Thailand.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	22-Dec-2006 18:44        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The key rubber futures contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange rose its daily 10 yen limit to 233.3 yen per kg on Friday as funds and speculators bought contracts heavily. The rise in TOCOM prices also gained momentum from position adjustments as speculators who offset the December contract on its expiry on Friday bought the key May contract, dealer said. "Rubber is still in a bullish trend," a dealer in Tokyo said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	22-Dec-2006 18:08        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The spot December rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange expired on Friday at 205.0 yen per kg, with 452 lots or 2,260 tonnes of deliveries. That compared with the November contract expiry at 171.0 yen per kg, with 172 lots or 860 tonnes of deliveries. The TOCOM rubber contract unit was reduced to five tonnes from 10 tonnes in July 2005. Details for December deliveries were as follows: Delivery made by Volume (lots) ----------------------------------- Okato Shoji 10 Kanetsu Shoji 34 Yutaka Shoji 408 Delivery taken by Volume (lots) ---------------------------------- Okachi & Co. 18 Yutaka Shoji 434
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Jennie Member	22-Dec-2006 17:27        Jennie About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tocom limits up today. Will we see a more persistent bull this time?
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Jennie Member	21-Dec-2006 17:09        Jennie About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The December06 contract is expiring tomorrow. I suppose this is why we see discounts on Tocom today. Probably some panic and decided to cut-loss before prices fall further. However could this also be due to some taking profit yesterday, speculating that prices will fall today? Please fill me. Thanks.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	20-Dec-2006 23:10        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The brewing El Nino weather pattern and social unrest may curtail rubber supplies next year in Southeast Asia and boost prices, a senior industry official said on Wednesday. Any tightening of supplies will only add to price pressures as world demand is expected to rise in 2007 because of a growing queue of new commodity investors and rising needs in the United States and China, said Kazuya Tetsu, managing director of Marubeni International Commodities (S) Pte Ltd. "Supplies from Southeast Asian countries are going to be shaky because of warm weather," Tetsu told Reuters in an interview. "This should keep prices pretty solid." Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia account for more than 70% of world's natural rubber output. Earlier this year, supply shortages drove Tokyo rubber futures, the benchmark for the industry, to 26-year highs of 324.5 yen per kg. Prices have eased since June and are currently hovering at about 224.8 yen a kg. The price of natural rubber -- about 70% of world's rubber output is used for making tyres -- has risen more than 300% since 2001. U.S. weather officials predict that El Nino, the abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can cause drought in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines, will peak in the next few months. "In addition to weather woes, social stability is also something which we have to watch in Indonesia and Thailand next year -- to ensure steady supplies of rubber," Tetsu said. Supplies from Thailand, the world's leading rubber producer and exporter, were disrupted last year because of drought and separatist violence in the country's largely Muslim south -- a leading rubber growing region. The International Rubber Study Group expects global consumption of natural and synthetic rubber to rise by around 3% in 2007, about the same rate of growth as in 2006. Tetsu said demand from the United States next year was expected to remain strong, despite talk of slowing growth. In addition, Chinese appetite for the commodity was expected to remain buoyant ahead of the Olympics in 2008. "We are not going to see a global recession in 2007 despite all kinds of talk -- a weak U.S. housing sector and other things," he said. "But we are going to see a lot of idle money in Japan and the United States moving into commodities. They have to park their money somewhere." He said rubber production in India was also likely to grow at a sharp rate next year to match its fast growing economy, but most of the additonal production would be consumed in domestic markets, leaving little surplus for exports. Synthetic rubber supplies also remains tight because it is made from crude oil, prices of which have been fluctuating this year and hit a record high of US$78.40 a barrel in July. "Synthetic rubber makers are cautious while expanding capacities," Tetsu said. "They are not expanding due to volatile crude oil prices. But I expect capacities for synthetic rubber to grow in China in the next five to seven years. Demand will start flowing in."
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zhuge_liang Supreme	20-Dec-2006 23:02        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures rose for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, supported by expectations of falling supply and higher oil prices. Tokyo's benchmark sixth month contract rose more than 1% to a seven-week high as rising oil prices induced fresh buying, with technical trends turning bullish after the contract rose above 220 yen. At 0339 GMT, the benchmark rubber contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange for May delivery was at 224.5 yen, up 2.4 yen from Tuesday's close. It rose as high as 225.2 yen, up around 21% from the 185.5 yen low it hit on Nov. 24. "Charts look very good to draw a lot of fresh buying, but the market is getting nervous as recent rises are a bit overdone," said Hisaaki Tasaka, a market analyst at Ace Koeki Co. Ltd. "It seems like the week of rubber as TOCOM was supported by several factors both fundamental and technical," another dealer in Japan said. Unseasonal rain in southern Thailand, the country's main rubber growing area, disrupted tapping and cut domestic supply, helping boost physical prices. In addition, the first meeting in more than a month between Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. , the largest U.S. tyre maker, and its workers supported TOCOM prices, dealers said. Traders were hoping a resolution would raise demand and prevent supplies from increasing. U.S. crude oil futures held well above US$63 a barrel on Wednesday as the market expected U.S. data due out later in the day would show a large drop in crude stockpiles due to shipping delays. However, dealers said they expected a correction on prices at around 225.0 yen, a level they said could prompt profit taking. "Statistically, there should be a correction before rising further," a dealer in Singapore said. On the physical market, Asian physical rubber prices rose further on Wednesday on the back of Tokyo futures. However, trading was expected to be thin as most tyre makers stayed on the sidelines ahead of the year-end holidays and Chinese buyers were bargaining for lower prices, traders said.
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zhuge_liang Supreme	20-Dec-2006 19:12        zhuge_liang About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Tokyo rubber futures ended higher on Wednesday as rising oil prices and concerns about falling supply induced buying, but profit taking limited gains. The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange  for May delivery settled at 224.8 yen per kg, up 2.8 yen from Tuesday's close. The benchmark rose to 225.6 yen, the highest since Oct. 30. "Rubber was still on a bullish trend, but the market was quite overbought so there should be some correction," a dealer in Singapore said. TOCOM rubber prices were expected to slip later this week ahead of the expiry of December contract, which should result in huge lots of rubber being delivered, dealers said. However, prices were not expected to fall below 220.0 yen as they were still supported by concerns about falling supply as unseasonal rain in Thailand, the world's biggest rubber producing country, disrupted tapping. In addition, the first meeting in more than a month between Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. , the largest U.S. tyre maker, and its workers supported TOCOM prices, dealers said. Traders were hoping a resolution would raise demand and prevent supplies from increasing. Asian physical rubber prices rose further on Wednesday on the back of Tokyo futures. However, trading was expected to be thin as most tyre makers stayed on the sidelines ahead of the year-end holidays and Chinese buyers were bargaining for lower prices, traders said.
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Jennie Member	20-Dec-2006 15:40        Jennie About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi shplayer I am involved in the NR industry professionally. However, I am new and there are still lots for me to learn. As mentioned before, my problem is gauging prices in the market. Nostradamus gave a few pointers but I'm still trying very hard to understand the rubber industry. Especially when you are in the upstream.
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shplayer Elite	20-Dec-2006 14:35        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	jennie, You seem to be familiar with the NR industry. Are you involved in it professinally?
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Jennie Member	20-Dec-2006 12:45        Jennie About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Some pessimists think that after the expiry of the December contract, prices may drop due to most deliveries happening at that time. If prices drop, I feel that it will only be for a short-term and will recover again. Reason being the wintering period for rubber trees are nearing for the 3 main producing countries. Stocks will tightened. China is bound to come back to replenish their stocks after a long absence since Oct.. Any other views?
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Nostradamus Supreme	20-Dec-2006 00:09        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Vietnamese companies are keen to invest in rubber plantations and hydro-power projects in Cambodia, Cambodian officials said on Tuesday. Vietnam's PM Nguyen Tan Dung told Cambodian PM Hun Sen late on Monday that Vietnam was ready to invest millions of dollars in rubber plantations in its neighbour. "Vietnam has capital and technology while Cambodia has plenty of land and labour, so we can join hands to invest," Information Minister Khieu Kanharith, who also attended the meeting, told reporters. The potential rubber growing area -- around 350,000 hectares -- lies in the eastern provinces of Kompong Thom and Rattnakiri, bordering Vietnam, a senior Agriculture Ministry's official, Chan Tong Eves said. Cambodia, which produces about 50,000 tonnes of rubber a year, has the potential to expand its output by at least 10x  given the availability of growing areas and favourable weather, according to U.N. figures in 1995. The impoverished country sells its rubber products mainly to Malaysia and Vietnam. Vietnam also plans to invest in two hydro-power projects on the Se San River, which flows through Vietnam's Central highlands into Cambodia's Rattanakiri and Stung Treng provinces, Cambodian officials said. The two plants, which are estimated to cost over US$1 billion and expected to produce 200 MW, could help supply electricity to the eastern region of Cambodia, which faces power shortages, Cambodian officials said. Cambodia, which produces 120 MW of electricity, well below its consumption of up to 300 MW, needs more power to support its garment industry, said the officials. Khieu, who is also the government spokesman, said Cambodia has agreed to buy more electricity from Vietnam, who has already provided 89 million KW via border gates, to Cambodia.
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