Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
|
|||||
bengster68
Master |
19-Mar-2008 23:12
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Taxus Liberte (the top DES from BSX) was already a "Shou Xia Bai Zhang" of Biomatrix under NOBORI 1 phase 2. Taxus Express (global number 1 top selling DES) was also a "Shou Xi Bai Zhang" of Biomatrix under NOBORI 1 phase 1. Both DESs not only lost to Biomatrix badly, they were both decapitated by Biomatrix. Taxus Liberte's delay in launch for US market technically has not much impact to BIG because biomatrix is not approved by FDA yet (still kena stuck at IDE stage and I believe this is the works of Medical Device Mafia Inc). However, when newer DES come out, doctors will want to switch and try them out as this industry can be quite fickle minded to the favour of latest products/gagets. Taxus Express and Taxus Liberte both are "Huan Tang Bu Huan Yao". Not much difference in my opinion and just as lousy and deadly with blood clot problems. If Taxus Liberte, Xience (aka Promus) and Endeavor manage to get more doctors to switch from using Cypher (which they definitely will), I think we may have a deal with JNJ very soon. Either a USA market JV deal or an outright takeover bid. But i believe one very important condition must be fulfilled by BIG before any deal with JNJ can be done........... and we will find out very soon whether BIG is able to fulfill that condition. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
yes888
Member |
19-Mar-2008 22:57
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
are we running a green and blue campaign? hehe we shall try to stay cool and heathly, if not this stent will be of good use one day. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|||||
lausk22
Veteran |
19-Mar-2008 22:36
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
agree with sgal. if the protagonists on either side don't control their blood pressure, then BIG will be the big winner, as more stents will be required to clear clogged vessels. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
bengster68
Master |
19-Mar-2008 22:25
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Normal accounting type of profit forecast method like the ones used by all the analysts covering BIG will not be able to provide BIG's net profit forecast after CE approval. Remember my this sentence dcang84. Biosensors will prove you dead wrong. Mark my words. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
singaporegal
Supreme |
19-Mar-2008 22:06
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Not only is this counter volatile, this thread is also creating volatile tempers. | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|||||
787180
Master |
19-Mar-2008 18:12
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
With mkt sentiments so bad eill be a matter of time BIG test its low again and upside of $1 is now even more remote...since its ipo listing in 2005 it has floundered and now with such large outstanding shares excerbated by the share options ,the longre the holding the greater the erosion in its share price-attended a seminar when one of the fund managers remarked-the worst counter to touch is pharmecutical with all its regulatories and large R&D very few can make $$$....have been shorting and making good $$$ since 2005 and once even bought at 80cts under the influential forummer here but was lucky could get out with a small profit but all in all this counter make a poor choice for long term hold....just my personal opinion no offence meant | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
dcang84
Veteran |
19-Mar-2008 17:54
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
< My profit forecast is an unorthodox method but a highly achieveable target. > Haha... Best joke pf the day. The kind of BS that's been posted here is truly 'remarkable'! |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
bengster68
Master |
19-Mar-2008 13:32
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
My profit forecast hinges on CE approval. Without CE, such forecast cannot be achieved. Now with CE approval, i think it is very achieveable. The previously clogged regulatory approval stage has been cleared. I feel it is not so much on make or break scenario here but more of what is the amount of profit we are looking at. I have broken them down one by one, use industry average based on market size and derive my forecasted figure. | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Mar-2008 11:30
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
yeps! thanks for pointing out the error, tan-all-in. :) float is 1052019000 shares. so yes. 130mil then. which going by mgmt's guide, is achievable if it gets off the ground, to justify a px of 70c at PE 4x. bengster: i had already said so in my 2nd post: the coy is obviously going for a make-or-break. So it's a high risk (and hence high return) play. Currently, it's up based on expectations. If Apr 08 doesn't come through, one may see a fallout. If it succeeds, the px will go up. It's an either-or scenario for this stock. Investors need to decide for themselves if this is the kind of risk/reward ratio they can stomach. To recognise the risk for what it is, rather than just seeing the reward and buy! buy! buy!. Or seeing only the risk and sell! sell! sell! risk/reward always comes together. cos at the end of hte day, there's no such thing as a good or bad stock. It's only whether one makes, or loses. What odds will one take, as a FA investor, or a TA trader? That's for the individual to decide. My goal here is exactly that: lay out all the opinions, let people decide for themselves. It's the best way to end all the blame game that's been going on in this thread. :) ok, on hols now. heehee. byes to all! :) |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
bengster68
Master |
19-Mar-2008 11:10
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The current float should be 1052m shares. Forward PE of around 4 at current prices means net profit of around US$130m. My profit forecast is an unorthodox method but a highly achieveable target. You must think outside the box and need very in-depth knowledge of how small but technologically advanced medical device companies like BIG make their money fast with reference to the DES industry. Forget about the analysts' profit guidance as i have not seen anyone of them mentioned in their reports. Even the management did not provide such profit guidance as well. You need to study everything as a whole to be able realise whats missing and give the most probable scenario and estimation. | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
Tan-All-In
Member |
19-Mar-2008 08:33
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi elfinchide, I dun think in the world there is any stock having 1000 Billion share floating. Thats is way too much. I think you got your facts wrong. If everything is true, to be PE 4X, Bio have to earn USD 133 million and not 133 Billion. The share afloat after the conversion/bond etc, Bio share afloat will be about 1250 Million or 1.25 Billion. Please comfirm. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
allright
Senior |
19-Mar-2008 08:30
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Is this good or bad for Biosensors? Boston Scientific Taxus Liberte Stent Delayed by U.S. (Update4) 2008-03-18 17:44 (New York) By Lisa Rapaport March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Boston Scientific won't win U.S. approval for its next generation drug-coated stent, called Taxus Liberte, until manufacturing lapses can be resolved. The Food and Drug Administration issued what's known as an ``approvable letter,'' Paul Donovan, a spokesman for the Natick, Massachusetts company, said in an interview today. FDA spokeswoman Karen Riley didn't return a call or e-mail. The introduction of Liberte may occur around the middle of this year, pending the resolution of a warning letter from the FDA, Paul LaViolette, Boston Scientific's chief operating officer, said at a Lehman Brothers health-care conference today in Miami. The FDA issued a warning letter in Jan. 2006 delaying approval of new drug-coated stents until manufacturing quality lapses could be resolved. Boston Scientific rose 40 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $12.60 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock dropped 16 percent in the past 12 months before today. Liberte is a new model of the company's Taxus stent and is coated with the same drug, paclitaxel, to minimize scarring. Sales of Boston Scientific Corp.'s Taxus and Johnson & Johnson's Cypher, the only drug-coated stents on the U.S. market before this year, plunged about 30 percent in 2007 because of concern over potentially fatal blood clots. Medtronic Inc. won U.S. permission to sell Endeavor, the first in a new generation of heart stents, in February. Abbott Laboratories has said it will win approval of its competing new device, called Xience, this year. --With reporting by Catherine Larkin in Washington. Editors: Reg Gale, Kurt Heine To contact the reporter on this story: Lisa Rapaport in New York at +1-212-617-3824 or Lrapaport1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reg Gale at +1-212-617-2563 or rgale5@bloomberg.net. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|||||
Tan-All-In
Member |
19-Mar-2008 08:18
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi elfinchilde, How come the share afloat is 1052 Billion? you have been using 1052 Billion share in your caculation. The stents market is only about 6 Billion per annual only. How can Bio sell 133 billion per year? isn't the share afloat be about 1052 Million or 1 billion? Please comfirm. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Mar-2008 01:41
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
argh!! forgot the final forex conversion!! Apologies. *pai seh* 184.1 bil is in S$. In USD, that means ~US$133 bil. The rest of the calculations hold. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Mar-2008 01:38
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
edit: apologies for the typo: rerated NAV for biosensors should be 22.4c. I had written 0.224, that is actually in dollars. Just a minor note, based entirely on financial mathematics, for investors to get an idea of how much profit biosensors needs to make, to justify a low PE ratio: http://stocks.about.com/od/evaluatingstocks/a/pe.htm --for those interested to know more about FA calculations. For the forward PE of biosensors to be 4x: assuming current px is 70c in S$: => S$0.7 = approx US$ 0.51, taking exchange rate as 1.38. As stated in their AR, share float is ~1052 bil. Formula: PE ratio = share px/ EPS. (EPS = earnings per share). Hence, if PE ratio is to be 4x, means EPS of biosensors = 0.70/4 = 0.175. ie, from a current net loss of $0.01 per share, their products have to generate ~$0.175 worth of profit per share, to justify a forward PE of 4x. Share float ~ 1052bil. So in absolute dollar terms, biosensors needs to make a net profit of 0.175 x 1052 bil = US$184.1 billion dollars. To justify a rerating to PE < 4x. This is way above the company's own estimate of US$115mil, top end. Now, this is not impossible, as there are what are known as blockbuster drugs in the medical field: these are drugs which make over a billion dollars annually in sales. You'd know some of them: Prozac and Viagra. But in reality, these blockbusters are only a fistful in the entire medical industry. Caveat applies to all the above. I am simply pointing out the FA mathematics. Numbers don't lie when the calculations are shown out. Not vested, and not interested in vesting. Except perhaps to trade. hehe. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Mar-2008 01:09
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
bwah ha. yes cashiertan, this counter is very good for rapid trading: if you look at the charts, esp on the dates i stated (as i'm sure you've figured out too ;) ) the patterns are constant. The imprints of which BBs are playing this counter together is all over the charts already. Cowboy town. Not my cup of tea, that's why i'm staying out of this one. hehe. But yea, trading is about personality; one has to do what fits and what makes for oneself, rather than blindly following tips/rumors/sure-wins. Aiyah. In the end result, it's always the small fries who lose. It's a zero sum game. Yes, i feel sorry too; but zero sum game means exactly that. In trading, you always follow the winners. Never bet against the trend. cheers! (PS: glad to see your forex is going well. will likely be starting it up when i return. you're right; forex is more 'stable' than stocks, in the sense that it is less easy to manipulate, hence the charts are easier to read. esp for a techie.) |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
cashiertan
Elite |
19-Mar-2008 00:57
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
yes elf, this counter is manipulated by some BBs that why i like to ride this counter as you are more sure to make $ following the BBs, thou i feel bad making money from the speculators, however it is still safer to follow the BBs. trading is not abt thrill, it is abt making money | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
18-Mar-2008 22:47
|
||||
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
FA for biosensors: based on BIG's own ARs as of Feb 08. http://www.biosensors.com/ir.html Loss has actually decreased (ie, co is turning around): from ~10 mil to 7.8 mil loss cf period of 06 to 07. Loss per share = US 0.75c currently. Note that BIG prices in USD, so you need to factor in exchange rate losses. However, net current assets have actually decreased, from 82 mil to 62mil for comparative Q period of Mar 07 to Dec 07. Total product revenue (important, because it is on this that you can base a realistic forward PE) increased by only 5%. If you read the details of their AR, most of their revenue comes from conventional products (intervention cardiology and critical care), not the DES stent that has been hyped up. The co is putting a lot of expectations on the BioMatrix stents they are developing. Generally speaking, from a business perspective, it means it'll either make it, or totally crash. note tho that in the pharmaco industry (I was from there myself), most products will take 10-15 yrs from clinical trials to being sold on the streets. Getting a license is one thing; getting it readily accepted by the market is another. There are countless products out in the heart cardio field. Overall, the pic reads increased expenditure, increased sales and marketing costs (marketing of biomatrix), increased operational expenses, but profit increase thus far is only 5%. ------------- attaching the words from their own AR, fyi: On 18 January 2008, the Group also announced that it has received Conformite Europeenne ("CE") mark approval for its BioMatrix drug-eluting stent system (?DES?), enabling commercialisation of this product in the European Union and the countries in Asia and Latin America that recognise the CE mark. Terumo Corporation, a licensee, also announced CE mark approval for its NOBORI DES. Biosensors will share a portion of the revenues from the sales of NOBORI DES by Terumo. BioMatrix DES is expected to be launched in April 2008, which is the first quarter of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (Q1 FY 2009), and the NOBORI DES is expected to be launched in a similar time frame. The Company believes that revenues from BioMatrix sales will represent a major portion of the product sales in the second half of fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (H2 FY 2009). The Group expects to record revenues of between US$100 million to US$115 million for fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 (FY 2009). The Group believes that it will continue to incur operating losses during the first half of FY 2009 (the six-month period ending 30 September 2008), but will be in a position to break-even or turn a small profit late in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009. ------------------------- Hence, forward PE ratio calculations: EPS loss = 0.75c. NAV = 11.51c. Float of biosensors ~ 1052 bil. Assuming the group actually manages to hit profit of US$115 mil for FY2009 from sales of BioMatrix, as stated by the management themselves. Deduct loss of 7.8mil: hence, net profit of Biosensors = US$107.2 mil. Hence, fair value rerating of EPS = US 0.10c. Fair value NAV = US 0.224c. By EPS ratio, stock is way overvalued: even with a EPS of 0.1c, its PE ratio is skyhigh. However, by NAV calculation: FA terms states max 2-3x book to price ratio as fair value for a stock. So assuming 2.5x as average => potential of biosensors = 0.224 x 2.5 x 1.38 (exchange rate) = S$0.77 as best target for biosensors, in FY 2009. If one wishes to be optimistic and take 3x book to price ratio, that means 92c is the max target for the stock, for FY2009. Note: all the above is via FA calculations.
|
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
elfinchilde
Elite |
18-Mar-2008 22:45
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
agree with cashiertan. If you can read charts, this counter is totally manipulated. And well, rather than arguing on words (sell! buy!), perhaps it'd be better to give the facts, and let investors/traders decide for themselves. elfie is doing a thorough analysis here, for both traders and investors. FYI caveat applies. I'm not vested in this, and don't intend to. For the amt of time spent waiting, and the risk (both FA and TA-wise), i'd rather play other counters. --------------- TA for biosensors: cf charts: aug 10-15. oct 29 to nov 1. dec 26 to jan 21. feb 12 to feb 27. pic from chaikin shows consistent distribution (ie, selling) since nov 07. From a/d, shows consistent distribution since May 07. pls note that M formation, ie, lower high, lower low, has been formed. A break below 70.5c on increasing sell vol is actually a sell signal. (note though that almost all stocks across the board are forming the M formation: signal of a broad market breakdown imminent.) and actually, after a lock up period, most stocks will tank as the big shareholders cash out. Have said once before that this counter is not for newbies. Still hold by those words. Even brokerage houses get caught on this: Most recently, on the Feb/Mar crash. |
||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
bengster68
Master |
18-Mar-2008 22:40
|
||||
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Please buy some BIG shares at such low prices. Many people still think whats the big deal about CE Mark approval. I believe over the next few months we can see why CE Mark is so important to BIG. The reason BIG has been losing money year for 2 years is because of CE delay. BIG made US$20m in FY2006. If CE has not been delayed, BIG should be making at least tens of millions a year over the last 2 years. The powerful positive effects of CE Mark will take a few months to kick in after approval. I totally disagree with all the analysts profit forecast for BIG including BIG's CFO profit guidance provided for FY2009. I know i am the odd one out now to say BIG's forward PE at current market cap of US$500m is probably around 4 or even lower. I did a lot of homework on this company, on this industry and how this industry works to derive out this figure. This figure is not plucked from thin air but many months of research. I will reveal my full analysis of how i derive this forward PE of around 4 at current market cap of US$500m later on. It will be very shocking how come this gem can be so undervalued for so long. For those who believe in my fundamental analysis posted previously, please load up some BIG shares while it is still so grossly undervalued. Never chase a soaring stock. Buy when it is still cheap. Now is the best time. People may think im like a siao kia urging/begging forumers to load up now at such unpredictable market conditions. When the departmental store is on offer, so many people chiong to buy. When this hidden gem is on such huge offer, very few people dare to buy. I know for sure a few months down the road many forumers will appreciate my STRONG BUY calls for BIG shares at such rock bottom prices. Forget about trying to get it at 60cts. The contra players have all cut-loss and out. The fundamentals of this company has changed dramatically with Biomatrix CE Mark, NOBORI CE Mark, top class NOBORI 1 phase 2 beating BSX's top performing DES Taxus Liberte in all end-point measurements with very wide margins, and full ownership of China JWMS. Soon we will see the whole BIG's gang licensees namely Xtent and Devax getting their respective CE Marks because the clogged CE approval has been cleared with BIG's Biomatrix CE approval. | ||||
Useful To Me Not Useful To Me |