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NOL
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alexsmith
Member |
28-May-2013 21:13
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Few things to add for those who want to short this counter: a. GRI on Europe fails (probably only until July?) but not GRI on US. Saw the SCFI on US west/east coast has stabilized. Check out following: http://www.apl.com/india/html/news_20130315_3.html http://www.apl.com/india/html/news_20130521_1.html b. US economy is coming back even though China is slowing. More business for APL then. Price could shoot up to 2007 high (best case). This year high chance this counter could shoot back. c. Last but not least, Temasek is the biggest shareholder of NOL Nonetheless, above are just my opinions. It just worth two cents though. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
28-May-2013 20:29
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Failed GRI on Europe route is expected as mersk and MSC the leaders did not enact any GRI during this period. Only big GRI both enacted is on July1 of US $750 more than doubling the existing rate. But trading NOL share price with freight rate news is not so accurate, I prefer US economy news trading method which is more consistent with the future share price movement. Spike in Freight rate don result in huge upward movement in NOL share but Good export/china PMI/US ISM/ US job data boost NOL share price. I still remember in Jan, good china export data jack up NOL from 1.12 to 1.32 in matter of days and a contraction in US 4Q GDP sink it down to 1.1 lol. Economy data is all that matter for NOL trading pattern, and recently US economy numbers are all pointing to a recovery with Fed reserve confirming it by surprising market that they might pull out QE3 later this year which cause the big selling last weeks in asia/Europe market. With Temasek at the back providing backstop in share price, no need for concern just like what they did with olam share price now it recover all the losses made by shorting news. What matter now is when is the perfect time to go in NOL to ride the good economy news coming out of 2H 2013, very hard to judge since BB participation is random. | ||||
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harley22ez
Senior |
28-May-2013 16:41
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Should be going down to 1.01 to 1.02 due to failed GRI! |
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sgng123
Veteran |
25-May-2013 14:15
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Spot freight rate for Europe and transpacific are moving in opposite direction. Europe rate continue their slide while transpacific rate strengthen, it is fortunate NOL exposure to Europe is very limited else going to be ugly on 2Q. Transpacific trade look firm even as bigger ships are cascaded from Europe to US, might be a good sign for 2Q result as long spot rate hold above US $2000. Need more carriers coordinated effort in GRI to ensure stable freight rate in 2013, hope big players like Maersk and MSC come to sense and reduce capacity in troubled Europe trade lane. These 2 competitors are always the culprit in rate war fight as they aim for supremacy in market leadership. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
24-May-2013 22:55
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Positive economy data all out of US economy this week. Next week the all important job data on Friday would give us a clue whether US can sustain the positive economy momentum. This is funny now traders are all scared of good news out of economy as it meant early QE3 withdrawn, bad news = good news as it would keep QE in place. One crazy market that got caught up by the QE addiction and now afraid of good news, this also indicate current run up in share price for defensive/yield play is not sustainable sooner or later got to have a few comfort delgro style of share price correction for overvalued shares. The great rotation of hot money into theme plays gona start like what we experienced in previous rally, sell into strength but don buy on dip lol. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
24-May-2013 14:07
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Anyway US market unchanged last night, so basically Asia and Europe stocks are overpriced and having a correction but the fall is more restricted to defensive and yield plays. I am expected to see another big price correction on the following counters Starhub, Comfort Delgro, Singpost, Singtel, M1, Property Reits basically any stocks that give regular yield would take hit. Was hoping hot money would do the rotation from defensive/yield plays into growth plays exposed to US economy. US economy getting stronger by the day even it is hit by tax hike and spending cut, world best economy rite now even china is starting to slow down. | ||||
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CSH123
Member |
24-May-2013 10:20
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Great time to catch a movie
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CSH123
Member |
24-May-2013 10:18
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mkt is not simple..not for punters nw
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Rokawa
Member |
24-May-2013 08:53
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last year lowest was 1.01 to 1.02 at least | ||||
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halleluyah
Elite |
24-May-2013 07:53
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Yeah, tis yr lowest is 1.09. Last yr lowest was 1.05. Few days ago got some at 1.12 as i see strong buying. Keep in the freezer. Expected the next 2Q will b profitted....hope so. Aiming at tis counter is becos almost at z bottom n gt great potential to shoot up a lot in z future. Also supported by ah kong.
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CSH123
Member |
24-May-2013 00:40
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Its a gd price
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CSH123
Member |
24-May-2013 00:01
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even the ang mos( djia) also afraid to short..shld be able to proceed frm here
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sgng123
Veteran |
23-May-2013 20:01
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Not much movement from NOL from now till the correction in stock market is done. Take a break from stocks and go enjoys summer block buster movies. Correction in May Go Away in June is the theme. | ||||
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halleluyah
Elite |
23-May-2013 17:57
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Not much selling fr the past 3 days n tdy holding quite well. Manage to get some at 1.095 which aredi q over nite. Only 406lots done...expected more to drop till 1.09 tdy. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
23-May-2013 15:32
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The correction in market had began, if still holding to defensive/yield stocks time to dump them ASAP. Nikki today tumble 7.1% or 1100 points. Tonite Dow Jones might go down by 200-350+ market correction. Sell In May symptom seen but currently I believed it is a correction overdue longtime and FM taking profit and readjust their portfolio. The correction might continue till next week so sit tight and enjoy the ride down. See it in another light, US economy might finally begin to take off after 2 year of slump as Fed reserve indicated might take off QE3 yearend due to sustained improvement in unemployment and economy. Lastly for those interested in spot freight rate, Drewry hongkong container index for transpacific jumped US$250 due to GRI US$400 enacted by carriers in 21 May 13. SCFI should see some decent gain later this week. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
22-May-2013 22:33
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No surprise from Fed Reserve benanke testimony to US congress and Dow Jones is up by 0.9% 140 points on expectation QE3 would continue as usual till US economy recover. Hope feel good sentiment tickle down to nol share price tomorrow. By the way china flash PMI is out tomorrow morning before china stock market open, hope good reading too. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
20-May-2013 14:53
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BB accumulating NOL shares but not much big share movement up to now, 1.13 seem like the entry point for BB. Had to monitor for a few more sessions before plunging in for the kill. Make Hay While the Sun is Out. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
20-May-2013 11:50
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Reading from business times, Maersk announced it is 100% sure to more than double the freight rate in July GRI . High chance there might be a capacity cut or layup of vessel to justify this early victory announcement. This is only the start of the fun if rally is driven purely by hot money influx, they ramped up stock that are in low floating and very big chuck of holdings in few shareholder hands. This way can create a stock casino effect by drivng up share price to attract other players and let the musical chair trade begin, last before music stop get hit lol. | ||||
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ruanlai
Master |
20-May-2013 10:41
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FMs are buying since Friday........from China and GIC | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
19-May-2013 22:20
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The funny thing about this QE3 driven rally is bad news = good news for market to continue to rally on expectation central bank would keep supporting market to boost growth. Good economy/job number actually led market to believe Fed Reserve would soon stop supporting market and market would fall but recover due to better economy data. Very crazy market can only go up due to central banks supporting it to boost growth. This whole shit came cos developed countries government all in political paralysis all don want to fix economy only interested in fixing up their political opponent, good example is Rep in US going up against white house knowing they had no chance of advancing their goal. Just want to paralysis the government is their goal same in European where Germany only interested to protect their interests. This whole circus show of political paralysis in developed world left central banks in control of boosting growth through printing money and killing off all pension fund/insurance/fixed deposit rate. Japan had showed other that by using QE can boost up economy soon other Asian countries would follow Korea > China > Taiwan, then Singapore had no choice but to devalue as well or Singapore export all loses to them lol. Why need to do productivity, just bloody devalue currency can do the job faster and better as japan had already shown us stock market double in 6 months and GDP back to 3.5% lol. Lastly what goes up might not come down so fast due to unlimited support provided by central banks, it would come down only when everyone is all aboard the rally and sink us else it would keep tempting people with new high till they cannot tanhan and join the suicide rally. |
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