Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
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bengster68
Master |
31-Mar-2008 13:38
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Your 8.xxx refering to $8.xxx or $0.8xxx??? 01/04/2008 is the official launch date of Biomatrix. But to wait for increase in Biomatrix sales to increase BIG's share price, it may take a longer time. Im waiting for the 7 trump cards to come out in FY2009. Be patient. I forgot to add on that since BIG already has CE approval, it is a big plus point for any takeover buyer as the buyer can immediately start their intensive branding/marketing/distribution/sales mechanism for Biomatrix DES. No need to wait long long for product approval. Immediate contribution to the buyer's top and bottom line. |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
31-Mar-2008 12:40
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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If sales were good, then good hope for 8.xxx cheers. |
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Bernie
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31-Mar-2008 12:23
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A report in today's My Paper under the heading 'NHC stent patient's hearty recovery' highlighted BIOMATRIX stent implantations having been carried out in Feb 2008. | ||||||||||||
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allright
Senior |
31-Mar-2008 10:30
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Thanks for your opinion But I still feel that April the 1st is the start of the commercial sales and hope that psychologically the share price will go back to .88?? Just my gut feel ...not experienced at this and so need the chartists opinion as well | ||||||||||||
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zhenxian
Senior |
31-Mar-2008 10:24
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strong volume today. but i think tml things will go down again |
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allright
Senior |
31-Mar-2008 10:21
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Hesitated and its .745...cashier tan you are good at this...do we go in at this level? | ||||||||||||
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ykjuay
Senior |
31-Mar-2008 09:26
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watch out for the anncemnt, some new prjts in pipeline | ||||||||||||
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bengster68
Master |
31-Mar-2008 01:15
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Sorry for my typo error, second half of FY2009 means 01/09/2008 onwards. I apologise for typo error 01/09/2009. My PC kena spyware and Im using a small laptop to type now. | ||||||||||||
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bengster68
Master |
31-Mar-2008 01:13
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During the CE announcement, the CFO said BIG will start make profit from second half of FY2009 onwards, ie from 01/09/2009 onwards. His this sentence caused BIG's shares to drop so drastically after CE announcement as many investors lose patience for having to wait another 9 months more to start to seeing this company make meagre profit. We have waited for so long for CE Mark and now have to wait another 9 more months??? No wonder people start dumping!!! I believe his sentence is misleading and i construe it as he is refering to BIG's operational profit only. Based on my own calculations, BIG has 7 trump cards for FY2009 that will materially affect BIG's bottomline. If you want to wait until Sept 2008 then buy this stock, i firmly believe BIG will kena takeover by then (yes, within the next 6 months). When the time fully ripe for takeover (one crucial criteria left for takeover to happen), even STI tank to 2500 pts the MNC buyers will still buy BIG. The medical device MNCs that want to buy BIG will look at what tangible benefits of acquiring BIG will contribute to their growth over the next 10 years to ensure market dominance in global DES industry. BIG perfectly fit in the bill by having the best DES technology beating rivals by very wide margins, crucial DES patents and China JWMS as cheap export base to capture new exponential demand from 3rd world markets. Even the next best DES Xience uses BIG's DES technology. ABSORB DES is also using BIG's DES technology. This is how advance and good BIG's DES technology really is. Do not be tricked into believing that newer competitor has just invented something "revolutionary" that will render BIG's technology obsolete. Many rivals can make all sorts of claim but unless they can come out with solid clinical trial reports, do not believe such wild claims as most of the time these "revolutionary" inventions always end up a flop. The balloon with drug method ealier this month was one such example of wild "revolutionary" claim. | ||||||||||||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
31-Mar-2008 00:07
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Nope, as what BB management claimed earlier that the coy will only likely see profit in mid 2009. Hence, my view is that, to see BB hit above dollar this mid yr, impossible, unless STI surges near 3700. | ||||||||||||
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bengster68
Master |
30-Mar-2008 23:15
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I say until how well also no use. The stock price must perform and that is the most important to all shareholders. Within 3 months can see the results. Sorry, by now should be 2.5 months left. I believe this stock will make a stunning turnaround before mid-June 2008. I still remember my $1.40 target. I also hope can this stock can hit $1.40 by mid-June 2008 as i enjoy sharing with you guys here. | ||||||||||||
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
30-Mar-2008 14:59
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Ben, well said, hope it will gain back the lost ground. I still keeping it for good. Cheers. | ||||||||||||
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bengster68
Master |
29-Mar-2008 23:29
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BIG's financial year FY2009 starts from 01/04/08 to 31/03/09. I expect many good things to come out over the next 3 months and this stock will be no longer a hidden gem by then. 3 months later when people start to realise how BIG has been grossly undervalued for so long and with such huge global potential, the share price will reflect automatically. People will realise this is not a concept stock, solid earnings and a real global DES powerhouse in the making. These trump cards will improve BIG's bottomline immediately. Nothing about hope or faith. It will come in FY2009. No more yo-yo standard share price. I calculated BIG has 7 trump cards in all that will come out in FY2009 and just anyone of these trump cards can make this stock rocket up. Also, I can roughly feel when the takeover offer will come and i believe it will come sooner what most people expect. I believe the buyers are all waiting for an all important criteria that BIG must possess before they showhand their offer and we will find out within the next 3 months. | ||||||||||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Mar-2008 22:12
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from techs (direct bar chart and price-volume history): not overbought yet. may still have some upside on mon; tho note that vol is starting to dip. the upside this time around is limited to 4-6c from last done; ie, 76-78c is your resistance for the next few trading days. fyi only. caveat applies. not vested. |
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scoobynut
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29-Mar-2008 16:30
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Bengster, hope you can help me clear a bit of my confusion here. When does BIG's FY2009 begin? And the way that things are, should we expect, rather, NOT expect any significant movements in BIG's price before 2H FY2009, whenever that is? TIA. |
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bengster68
Master |
29-Mar-2008 14:21
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Forget about operational sales in FY2009. The management has already indicated BIG will lose money in first half of FY2009 and make profit in 2nd half of FY2009. Watch for "trump cards". There are 7 "trump cards" i can think of that will come out in FY2009. This is where BIG will make money from in FY2009. I posted earlier and mentioned that the key business model of BIG is franchise system (like MacDonalds). The other half is their own usual operating business. What most people/analysts see is only the second half of BIG's business. It will contribute to BIG's bottom line, but at a slower pace. Biomatrix need to capture a larger slice of DES market before we can see solid bottomline contribution coming in for this second half of BIG's business. If you study BIG's business model very carefully, you will appreciate this company much better. This is how technologically very advanced medical device companies like BIG make money with their intangibles like patents, prorietary IPs, drugs, PLA biodegredable polymer, top class clinical results, etc. And this is how a lot of small but technologically advanced pharmaceutical/medical device companies make tons of money fast and furious. In my earlier example on BIG's 8th "trump card", i value it at US$80m lump sum cash payment for ABT's ABSORB DES patent breach (CE market only) with approx. 15 to 20% future royalty from sales. I estimate this US$80m cash profit to come in FY2010. But it could be "rolled over" to FY2011 as there could be delays (ABSORB's CE approval/litigation/settlement negotiation/etc) . But not to worry, the 8th "trump card" will not disappear and will add on to the net profit of BIG eventually. This amount could be much bigger, depending on how ABT want to negotiate for BIG's lifting of regional/global patent infringement. I hope you guys have just a little bit more confidence in my fundamental analysis and my buy call as BIG is grossly undervalued now. Even the valuation of China subsidiary JWMS alone already exceeded BIG's current market capital so there is really quite a substantial margin of error if you buy now. |
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allright
Senior |
29-Mar-2008 10:23
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Me too but I hope NOT TOO LONG A haul... Hope there is some good response when they start the sale on April 1st ... | ||||||||||||
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exodus
Member |
29-Mar-2008 01:16
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hi bengster, thank you for the explanation. i'm in for the long haul...small small investing, not like yours |
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bengster68
Master |
28-Mar-2008 13:38
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I will get show you an example of what i mean by BIG's "trump card". This article relates to BIG's 8th "trump card" that will greatly affect BIG's net profit that most analysts are not able to see and quantify. I think it will only happen in BIG's FY2010 when ABT get their ABSORB CE Mark next year.
Future Generation Treatment from Abbott Shows No Thrombosis, Low MACE Rates Out to One Year in Preliminary Clinical Study of Thirty Patients
If i may quantify this net profit payable to BIG on global market scale negotiated at one go, it should be in the region of US$200m to US$250m lum sum payment plus 15 to 20% royalty from sales for patent breach. However, for CE approved market patent infringement only, the figure could be reduced to US$80m to 100m initial lump sum payment plus future royalties (in proportion to global market size). ABT may choose to negotiate once and for all global patent infringement (including US market which FDA may approve in 2012) if they feel very confident about their ABSORB DES, or for CE markets only. Medical Devevice Mafias will not pay BIG US$15m in May 2007 for nothing unless they know they got to do business with BIG again in the foreseeable future. Patent infringement will confirm be one of the next business deals between ABT and BIG. It will come sooner or later, just a matter of time. There is also a 9th "trump card" i can think of and that is from JNJ's sirolimus drug on Costar's platform which uses biodegredable polymer. However, i don't think this sirolimus Costar DES can work and JNJ said it only for "face saving" purposes when Costar's RCT failed horribly. Afterall, which CEO would want to admit they spent US$1.4B and nothing useful can be salvaged from this acquisition? So the 9th "trump card" should not be included at the moment unless JNJ can show solid evidence they are serious in going ahead with Sirolimus Costar DES which uses biodegredable polymer. |
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bengster68
Master |
28-Mar-2008 10:38
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Tougher Rules Could Help Stent MakersThe crux of the new requirements is that most of the safety data will need to extend out two years before the agency will approve the tiny mesh devices used to hold open arteries. Then, post-marketing studies will be required to follow patients for at least five years. The agency is worried about reports from 2006 that the drug-eluting stents cause more blood clots than their bare metal brethren. The guidance won't affect the three medical-device makers that currently have drug-eluting stents on the market: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX), and recent addition Medtronic (NYSE: MDT). It shouldn't even affect the approval of Abbott Laboratories' (NYSE: ABT) Xience, since it should hear back from the FDA before the 120 days of public comments are up. Instead, the new guidance would affect newcomers like XTENT (Nasdaq: XTNT) that might try to get stents approved in the U.S. They also would affect development of next-generation stents by the current players. If the new requirements go into effect, it will kind of be a wash for the current stent makers. There will be extra clinical-trial costs involved with getting next-generation stents approved, but the requirements should widen their moats. The rising research and development costs will mean that me-too stents that don't offer a substantial additional benefit will probably get cut in development. A scaling back of competition is certainly welcome news for an industry that's been hurting for a few years. |
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