Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
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allright
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19-Apr-2008 00:16
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Bengster, YOU can tell many of us NEVER DOUBTED your sincerity. Thanks for the detailed and systematic analysis given once again. What you have outlined is very clear and succint . | ||||
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Bernie
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18-Apr-2008 22:31
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I second Investor. I believe the many serious long term investors feel indebted to Bengster for his researches and analyses. We know who to believe so do not feel obliged to reply to empty drivel. These people only come here to mess up the thread but are not taken seriously so please don't bite their bait. | ||||
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jackjames
Elite |
18-Apr-2008 22:27
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what is your job, bengster? you sound like more than a doctor or scientist. |
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cwwan1
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18-Apr-2008 22:24
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Bensgter, u have done us good by providing us the informations in the stent industry and i personally benefits a lot from your posting. Keep up your good work! | ||||
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investor
Senior |
18-Apr-2008 22:15
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Mr. Bengster, I am sure by now all forumers (except for those unusual few strange fellows) have benefited from your invaluable contributions - so you do NOT HAVE to keep defending yourself. It is not important whether BIG will go to 1.40 or 1.08 by June 2008 - what is more important is that going forward, BIG's value will be recognised by the mkt, when its 'hidden value' is revealed by taking mkt share from the mkt leaders, etc, patent rights, etc. So, why do you want to subjugate yourself to some strange fellow, whose sole objective in this forum is to tell everybody, how smart they are by shorting the stock and making money from it. If you were to quit from this forum - this would sound the death knell for this thread - after all, who wants to come into this thread and read the same boring 'short story' all the time. Therefore, forget your obligation to quit this thread, just because the 1.40 does not come true by June - if not, this thread will not survive - that I am quite sure of. |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 19:55
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Do not doubt on my sincerity to provide valuable analysis to forumers. I will tell you the answer to the crucial test that i mentioned in my earlier posts that BIG has to pass with flying colours: Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating (a.k.a: LEADERS trial) http://clinicaltrialsfeeds.org/clinical-trials/show/NCT00389220 I did my research and found that the last patient enrollment for this massive 1700 patient trial was May 2007 (meaning last patient implanted with the DES under the trial). Normally the standard RCT report will be for 9 months (enough to gauge a DES's short-term performance), but the results will contiinue to be monitored for up to 5 years. For LEADERS 9 months measurements, the clinicians would have taken the measurement for the last patient, ie, somewhere Feb 2008. I initially thought that if BIG has about 2 months to tabulate the results, the 9 months results will be presented at EuroPCR2008 at mid-May 208 in Barcelona as it will be the most glamorous time to showcase BIG's clinical results. My initial calculations has been reconfirmed by an analyst as quoted below: "Biosensors International Group: Looking ahead of the CE mark Biosensors International Group (Biosensors) recently announced its official award of the long awaited CE mark approval for its BioMatrix DES. This enables Biosensors to immediately start commercialising the stent in many countries that recognise the CE mark. Biosensor's BioMatrix technology licensee, Terumo, has also been granted its CE mark and will start contributing revenue to Biosensors as it initiates sales of its NOBORI DES. We should also hear positive news from Biosensor's 1700 patient LEADERS clinical trial in May 08. With the CE mark approval, we cut our discount rate to 20% (vs. 30%) but bottomline has been reduced with official guidance from Biosensors. With 2 years of planning in the works, we anticipate that Biosensors' operational and execution finesse in the next crucial 1 year will be adequately meted out. Fair value revised to S$1.23 (vs. S$1.40). Maintain BUY. Catalysts for earnings revision will be better than expected sales of BioMatrix and JWMS' Excel DES along with well controlled costs. M&A activities can potentially spurn strong response in the share price." However, recent developments have made me suspect that my earlier calculation of LEADERS announcement date could be wrong. I got a wake up call when i read the following analyst report recently: STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse trims Biosensors (B20.SG) target price to S$1.20 from S$1.30 after lowering EPS estimates on conservative assumption company will own only 50% of its unlisted China drug-eluting stent subsidiary JW Medical due to uncertainty of China authority''s approval of deal. After company''s presentation at Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, says Biosensors appears to be refocusing on Asia, Europe BioMatrix commercialization, rather than burning cash for U.S. market entrance; "We believe this should boost investors'' confidence that the company is on the right path to profitability." Expects October release of large-scale clinical trial results for BioMatrix to offer strong catalyst. Keeps at Outperform. Share closed yesterday down 2.4% at S$0.80. This provided me a wake up call that my timing calculations could be wrong. Perhaps 2 months for tabulation of 1700 patients could be too short a time. I have checked with a hospital clinician involved in very large scale clinical trials before and the advice i got was: For smaller RCTs like NOBORI 1 phase 1 and 2 (120 patients and 240 patients respectively), 2 months for tabulation should be of ample time. However when 1,700 patients are involved and at so many test centres worldwide, 2 months could be too optimistic. Therefore i suspect the credit sussie analyst could be right on his October date. End October is TCT2008 at Washington. Normally DES players will choose either EuroPCR in May or TCT in October to release clinical trial results for maximum media impact. So i feel the October date should be a better date calculation than month of May. Why is LEADERS trial so important to BIG's takeover? 1. Previous numerous clinical trials performed for Biomatrix are smaller scale ones numbering 100 to 200 over patients. Not world class enough to add weight to the DES's clinical trial performance portfolio. Only massive RCTs involving at least 1,500 patients can carry a lot of weight for evidence of product superiority. 2. JNJ made a very horrible blunder in their acquisition of Conor. They did not wait for a few more months for the full 9 months Costar RCT result announcement. JNJ (being very desperate) took a huge gamble to buy Conor without their result of massive clinical trial and the gamble flopped horribly. Their US$1.4B acquisition is now a total write-off (if i may put it very bluntly). Now JNJ can over US$10B cash, they really can pay very high premium for takeover but im very sure they want certainty in RCT performance (a bit like insurance premium). Anymore such Conor takeover flops and JNJ's CEO will definitely be sacked immediately. This is why JNJ has to look into BIG's LEADERS results, make sure Biomatrix pass with flying colours and JNJ will dare to forward the $3 offer. Acquisition mistakes can be a very costly multi-billion write-off. MNCs will learn from JNJ's lesson and make a move only after LEADERS report is out. As such, i feel it would be more appropriate for me to "push back" my TP of $1.40 to November 2008. Im not trying to fool forumers to buy BIG and anyhow make bad buy calls without any basis or justification. However, i would maintain my strong buy call with a TP of $1.08 (the price that Medtronic and Shandong WeiGao agreed to do share swap with BIG over the 50% China JWMS acquisition) with this TP achieveable before mid-June 2008. I have my reasons to believe why this $1.08 TP is achievable on or before mid-June 2008. I have provided my analysis and hope fellow forumers can understand my buy call and TP (including the date). |
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jackjames
Elite |
18-Apr-2008 19:43
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aiyaa..787180, why you always make our bengster angry? please stop all the silly arguements la.. when biosensor cheong, u will see somepeople quickly post cheong ar cheong ar.. when, biosensor down, we see you coming out saying some sarcastic words... aiyoo... life is to be enjoyed.. not need to make it so koyak, right? |
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XiaoMaGe888
Senior |
18-Apr-2008 13:11
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Sinostar may be another KEPPEL CORP
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 11:50
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You are damn bird. We already have evidence that you are still calling people to buy Sinostar at peak prices and when it was on downward trend at around 90cts and now you are claiming your calls benefited them??? Sinostar never had a chance to recover when your followers heeded your calls and went in when at 90cts. What is Sinostar's price now? Also, previously i said $1.40 by mid-June is not about takeover. I have always maintained that takeover will be $3. You are confused and come out with the conclusion that takeover will be at $1.40 by mid-June. Earlier on, i expect the crucial test results to be out before mid-June but recent developments have made me believe that the crucial test results will not come out on the date that i earlier expect. It could be delayed. | ||||
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787180
Master |
18-Apr-2008 11:27
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So yr promise still honour or not or just buying excuses for yr mistakes-not to comment if take over failed by mid june 2008..Ure just a man not of yr words....blowing hot air only...no need to quote Jade or sinostar I'm fully out plus those who have followed me closely
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 11:23
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The crucial test BIG will pass with flying colors but buyers like JNJ still want to see it to answer to board of directors and shareholders. Previously, i estimate it will come out earlier but i think i may have calculated the date wrongly. It could be delayed and I think it should come out a few months later but takeover should still be in year 2008. Stocks like BIG are just waiting to be taken over, but BIG can stay independent also. If JNJ take over BIG, sales of Biomatrix can be accelerated very quickly and increase in sales volume by at least 3 times if JNJ is to do the branding, marketing, connections with hospitals and doctors, very established sales channels and distribution. | ||||
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allright
Senior |
18-Apr-2008 09:44
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Hahaha Novena 33.... but its okay...good vibes good for the share. THink there's good support at .73???? When is the results? And bengster when is the "one final crucial test" due??? Hope BIG passes it and QUICKLY!!!! Good trading day to all | ||||
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novena_33
Veteran |
18-Apr-2008 09:20
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wah......guys.....did we run out of idea to trade.....any way...as long as good for BIG....i dont care lar... |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 01:35
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One of my favourite investment book is "The winning investment habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros: What you can learn from the world's richest investors" by Mark Tier. See Bei Chai!!! |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 01:29
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Got the stock tip from heaven. Buy and hold Breadtalk, Hyflux, Biosensors and ST Engineering we will surely HUAT!!! |
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cashiertan
Elite |
18-Apr-2008 01:09
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Seriuosly, Those who read revelation in the bible should be able to know where to park their money. i have noticed that since 2000 the end times prophecies is getting spot on. We gonna see a loaf of bread selling for an "ounce of gold" commodities, water, biotechnology and weapons makers should benefits alot in th end days.. | ||||
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cashiertan
Elite |
18-Apr-2008 01:03
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Buffett, Soros: Betting on Biotech, 'End of the World' PlaysPosted Apr 17, 2008 11:46am EDT by Aaron Task in Biotech and Clean Tech, Newsmakers, BankingWarren Buffett is the world's richest man and George Soros is hardly a pauper -- having earned nearly $3 billion just last year, according to Alpha magazine. Aside from immense wealth, these two legendary investors have at least one other thing in common: Both are making big bets on healthcare technologies, specifically those involving vaccines, says James Altucher, managing director of Formula Capital and columnist for The FT and Street.com. Altucher, who literally wrote the book on Buffett's trading, says the "Oracle of Omaha" is actually more focused on demographics than classic valuation metrics, contrary to popular mythology. What Buffett and Soros both see is a world with aging populations in the developing world, greater demand for vaccines in the emerging markets, and the potential for pandemic diseases that threaten all of humanity. Rather than fearing the worst-case scenarios, these billionaires are making big bets on them via investments in names like Glaxosmithkline, Sanofi-Aventis, Johnson & Johnson, MAP Pharmaceuticals, Savient Pharmaceuticals, and others. http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/12050/Buffett-Soros-Betting-on-Biotech-'End-of-the-World'-Plays?tickers=GSK,SNY,MAPP,SVNT,JNJ,GENZ,BRK-B |
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bengster68
Master |
18-Apr-2008 00:11
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Confirm. Currently, most of JNJ's sales growth is in the consumer health care division (low profit margin), not in the high-margin pharmaceuticals and medical device division. Cordis is experiencing 27% decline in sales of stents compared to Q1 of 2007. Cordis will have to fight back fast before they become redundant in this industry with newer DESs coming up like Endeavor and Xience. But they will wait for the right time to strike at BIG again. Actually BIG is ripe for takeover but still need to pass one final crucial test. They offered before, they will offer again. I know JNJ is very desperate and BIG is exactly what Cordis need. Plus, they need the "limus on biodegradable patent" to wipe off rivals' next generation DESs breaching this patent. You want to pay peanuts, you will get monkeys like Conor. JNJ know we will never sell cheap. | ||||
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allright
Senior |
17-Apr-2008 10:24
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Bengster , so is this good news for BIG? Will J n J be on the look out for another to replace Conor? |
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cashiertan
Elite |
17-Apr-2008 07:38
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now NS men areadi shorter than b4. now just 7 high key with 3 low key. approx 10 years. just wanna say that thou lesser. but ppl with pes C9 are made to come for reservist which last time dun need to. it seem we lack of Men for serving the army | ||||
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