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AK_Francis Supreme	24-Apr-2008 10:57        AK_Francis About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood: Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers."
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Beng, tks for the details. AK will incubate this kid till next yr leow, no hurry loh.
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bengster68 Master	24-Apr-2008 10:50        bengster68 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	With CE approval, this company will no longer in pre-earnings stage. From FY2009 onwards, this company will be profitable and very profitable. Just one stroke, you suddenly see US$40m cash profit. In fact, BIG has always spent their cash very conservatively and i dont think they like to anyhow burn cash. If they need to spend on marketing Biomatrix in Europe, they have to spend. No branding and marketing how do you expect sales to just come in for Biomatrix even though it is a very good product? The FDA thing will cost a lot of money but once Biomatrix can get approval in USA, BIG can be considered a truly global DES player. All corners around the globe covered. Its a good thing to go into the USA market. I think BIG's originally plan earlier on is to do the USA market by themselves because the licensing agreements signed with Terumo, Xtent and Devax wer in 2003 and 2004. If they wanted to license out USA market earlier on, they would have done it back in 2003. If BIG has licensed out the USA market, there will be no more takeover value left in BIG. All territories already licensed out, who wants to buy you over? So i believe BIG is still holding on to the USA market until takeover negotiations really cannot bring about any good solid offers and the next option will be to remain independent. By then, if BIG's fate is to remain independent, BIG will immediately exercise their option of either license Biomatrix out the USA market or form a JV company with say, ST Judes Medical, in USA to invade into USA. If we analyse what BIG has been doing about the licensing, i feel that the key shareholders actually prefers to do an outright takeover sale (but must be at a good price) because they are withholding the USA licensing card for so many years. If BIG has intention to remain independent, BIG would have signed USA licensing back in 2003, just sit back and wait to collect royalties and forget about takeover. But i believe BIG will not hesitate to remain independent if the rival big boys give low offers. Its just a longer route to wealth but with BIG's top class DES technology and patents, i believe BIG has very good chance of making it. USA market cannot be ignored as it is too big too be ignored this is a very important card to BIG. However, i believe in the past one year BIG realise the power of Medical Device Mafia Inc at regulatory approval stages and to do USA market alone will be very difficult. Licensing it out or form a JV USA company with an American cardio medical device player who can settle the FDA guys and has good distribution connections and networks in USA (including Canada).    I think BIG will still need to raise more cash. BIG can do a share placement or do another convertible loan stock but i think both options may not be very well received. Share placement (at current prices) will further dilute existing shareholders and to place shares now at current prices will be a very silly thing to do and we will have to share any future takeover jackpot with so many new shareholders. Convertible loan stock (conversion price of say $1.08) is an option but these are essentially debt unless they are converted into shares later on. BIG already has US$45m convertible loan stock outstanding. So far even after CE the share price doesn't perform fantastic at all and the convertible loan stock scheme may not be well received. Alternatively, BIG can spin off China JWMS via listing in HKSE. However, the second 50% acquisition with Wei Gao still has not been fully completed yet. So any such listing plans cannot proceed ahead. Also, for BIG to extract cash out from any listing of subsidiary, BIG has to do a "new share placements cum Vendor sale" during the listing. In any case, listing takes quite a long time to get it done so even if BIG start to get investment bankers in to do a JWMS subsidiary listing, the listing will be at least one year later. Not enough time because we know LEADERS trial will be announced in Oct 2008 and negotiations for takeover will start after LEADERS results. BIG has 6 months to beef up their cash war chest to a level of at least US$250m in order to be in a better bargaining position for better takeover offer. At least must have US$200m cash please please please........ Anything below US$200m cash level BIG will be "squeezed balls" by the buyers no matter how attractive they think BIG is. They will buy, but they still will try to squeeze you for a low price. From $3 can drop to $2.50. Its a dog eat dog business world, big bully small, rich bully poor, etc. Such things will never change so BIG better have enough cash war chest ammunition and hold their head high!!! If takeover negotiations fail, then we can see a BIG global "Stent War" about to begin liao. Start bombing those arrogant American assho#es man!!! Form a new ally and march your troops into USA immediately!!!!
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jackjames Elite	24-Apr-2008 10:45        jackjames About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sell to me , sell to me !
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XiaoMaGe888 Senior	24-Apr-2008 10:38        XiaoMaGe888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sell Sell Sell!!!!!!!!!!!!this LP counter
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XiaoMaGe888 Senior	24-Apr-2008 10:23        XiaoMaGe888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I told you all BIG is LP counter,all counter up,tis BIG down
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Maxximo Member	24-Apr-2008 09:52        Maxximo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bro Bengster, Since you mentioned lot of cash in needed to front the inroads to the US market, what is the possibilities of BIG doing placement of shares to raise funds??? BIG is releasing the full FY08 result soon which most probably will be in the red, but in your opinion, has BIG move pass the pre-earning stage in FY09 ?? ( i mean no more losses expected for FY09 taking into consideration with all the marketing & misc cost for pushing Biomatrix). So long as BIG pass the pre-earning stage (no more cash burning ..), i think it is still worth taking the risk with this counter even if it takes time to pentrate the US.   Look forward to the coming BIG full year FY08 results. Cheers. Above not an inducement to trade.
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allright Senior	24-Apr-2008 09:17        allright About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thank you so much for the detailed and very clear opinion .
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bengster68 Master	24-Apr-2008 01:23        bengster68 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Since i feel takeover will happen only after LEADERS results, BIG got to prepare for takeover negotiation talks when it does happen. Of course if LEADERS results pass with flying colours, BIG will no doubt be a very attractive target. But being very attractive is sometimes just not enough. If you don't have that razor sharp teeth and claws, the big boys are still not afraid of you. They will still press down your price. "$2 how? Take it or leave it!" kind of attitude. BIG still lack the "FATAL ATTRACTION" element. How can BIG make itself look more fatal? One key element here is cash level. Lots of cash. Cash will be BIG's ammunition for war. BIG got to flash their cash ammunition war chest and the kind of damage BIG can do to the big boys when takeover talks fail to materialise. BIG cannot be looked down upon as a desperate seller party with little impact to the the buyers' market share and global DES business. Yes, BIG has the patents, the top class technology, JWMS, CE Mark, bla bla bla but without solid hard cash to fund bigger global expansion (to penetrate deeper into Asia and CE approved markets, to invade into their USA home ground) to pose a real big threat to the big boys, theses guys are still not afraid of BIG. BIG is just a small fry with good DES weapons but still not a big threat. MDT is 100 times bigger than BIG and JNJ is 400 times bigger. The big boys will only pay you good money if they "see you up". BIG has to stand on own 2 feet in global arena and throw very strong punches at them at all corners around the globe. Good in Asia only is not good enough. Got to be good in Europe too and possibly invade into USA. So its CASH! CASH! CASH!!! BIG has only US$60m cash (before the recent US$40m cash infusion). When you go to takeover negotiations with that kind of cash level, the big boys will snigger at you. They will think you are desperate! Even if they are the ones who have approached you and find you very  attractive, they will think that you have low cash level, there is not much impact you can do and so you are desperate also. To put it more plainly, the guys (in this case JNJ, MDT, etc) always think they are very macho and if a beautiful girl (BIG) smiles at them, they think the girl has already fallen in love with them and she is quite easy to get and probably a cheap skate. Strangely, the macho big boys always think like that!    BIG has 3 licensing partners: Terumo, Xtent and Devax.   Xtent (listed in USA) and Devax (not even listed yet) are very small speciality stent companies, even smaller than BIG and hold lesser cash than BIG. When they signed licensing agreements, they cannot afford to pay huge lump sum amounts and gave free shares and options to BIG. So getting more cash from Xtent and Devax will be difficult. Next, we turn our attention to Terumo. Terumo has stable business and cash flow and has at least US$700m cash in their pocket and many other liquid assets. So a good target to get more cash is from Terumo. I believe BIG can squeeze out a lot more money out from Terumo.   If i can remember, the new FDA rules require a 3,000 patient clinical trial and measurements at 2 years. Previously, FDA requires only about 1,500 patients for 9 months trial. This effectively double the monetary cost of getting FDA approval. I think to obtain FDA approval, BIG has to spend at least another US$150m to 200m cash. So BIG got to have a cash war chest of at least US$250m in order to pose a more serious threat to the current DES big boys. To have US$250m cash will be a big leverage in BIG's bargaining power at takeover negotiations. With US$250m cash, BIG has the financial means to invade into USA even alone. But of course it will not be wise for BIG will not do that alone lah. You don't need to fire nuclear missiles physically to scare people. The fact that you own nuclear warheads or you are very capable to make one is a good enough threat to your rivals. BIG start to look for a USA licensing partner at the meantime if takeover doesn't happen but i think the chances of success is not very high because MNCs are not just interested in USA market alone. They want to capture global markets. I feel they generally don't want to be just one of BIG's licensee. USA MNC as your licensee? They will probably think its an insult to them as they are already big DES players in their own right. Unless they are some kind of sole global licensee for BIG's technology, thats another scenario altogether. There is exclusiveness to the top class technology. But BIG has 3 other licensees as well, so chances of existing big boys as licensee of USA market is not very optimistic. If we can turn our attention away from the 4 main DES big boys namely JNJ, MDT, BSX and ABT, i personally think there is one more party that may be interested in partnering BIG in USA market. St Judes Medical (STJ) is a USA MNC that designs, manufactures, and distributes cardiovascular medical devices, has a market cap of US$15B, cash level about US$400m plus with stable profit US$500m a year and stable cash flow that is used for share buy-back). I think St Judes Medical can be a potential licensee of BIG in USA market. If i can recall, St Judes was interested to expand their cardio business to include DES as one of their main product. Just like BSX and MDT also also involved in DES and other cardio devices. They signed some distributorship agreement with Conor but didn't quite make it because costar DES flopped. I believe St Judes is still interested in getting into the DES business just like their key rivals BSX asnd MDT. But what St Judes (STJ) need is a top class technology and BIG has it. What BIG lacks of in getting into USA market is good lobbying power inside FDA panel, extensive direct distribution channels, connections with American hospitals and doctors and i believe STJ is strong in this area. I see a pretty good matching here for BIG to enter into USA market if takeover talks fail to materialise with a good offer price to shareholders. If STJ wants to get inside DES industry, BIG's USA licensing opportunity gives STJ a good chance to get started in their USA home ground. Besides the usual licensing way, BIG can alternatively, form a JV USA company with STJ and bear some financial risk with STJ. Of course STJ has to come out with more money, BIG come out with lesser money and BIG uses their top class technology as a form of JV "capital". In summary, BIG has to find more cash and have other very good options available to them before takeover negotiations start. USA is a very important market and BIG has to show the big boys that BIG has the capability to even pose a strong threat to their Asia, Europe, Latin American and even their USA market share. The big boys that want to buy  BIG after LEADERS trial results have to fork out some serious big money and make an offer BIG cannot refuse. Have to insist on "no $3 no sell". KNN $3 is only US$2.5B, actually still quite cheap compared to the US$4.1B that ABT paid for Xience.
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Bernie Member	23-Apr-2008 20:15        Bernie About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	inservgp, click on  bengster68 and go back about a year and read all his posts.  They are very informative backed up by statistics and lately he has been analysing the steps taken by BIG to unlock value for this stock.  He has done a lot so do some homework if you want to be rewarded.
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television Member	23-Apr-2008 18:51        television About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So is it very safe to buy and keep lah..unlikely to lose much???
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inservgp Member	23-Apr-2008 18:05        inservgp About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear Veterans I just joined the FOrum and has no clue on WHAT IS THE LEADERS results, WHEN it is ready to be out soon??
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novena_33 Veteran	23-Apr-2008 17:38        novena_33 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	interesting game they have there.... and with ur analysis.... and the price movement....... it sure seem to have a nice fit .....
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bengster68 Master	23-Apr-2008 17:06        bengster68 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Some forumers has asked me why JNJ don't want to buy BIG shares now when its cheap if they want to takeover? LEADERS results not out yet. JNJ cannot afford to make another takeover mistake like Conor. Major stent players will wait for Leaders results to be out first then make a move. They can afford to pay a very high premium, but stent performance must be guaranteed by large scale clinical trial. I believe when LEADERS (massive scale clinical trial) results are out and stunningly good like NOBORI 1 phase 1 and 2 results, this stock could be hovering at all time high of $1.50 (with takeover rumours spreading in the market). JNJ can do open market purchase for the first 5% (no need to disclose to SGX) if they want to takeover. But if they eventually try to offer of say $2.80 to key shareholders and not successful, the whole takeover plan will collapse and JNJ they will be endorsing their rival's (Biosensors) products, thereby shooting their own foot!!! Normally, takeover buyer will make the key shareholders agree to a price first, after garnering enough support, sign a conditional offer (with break-up fee in case got another higher offer from another DES rival), then announce to public their takeover offer. If another rival wants to counter offer, the new offer has to be higher than the first offer and also bear the break-up fee. If the takeover buyer try to save some money on the first 5% shares by buying from open market first, they effectively has "showed their hands" and revealed desperateness in acquiring BIG. This short-sighted method of takeover approach may eventually cost the buyer an even higher price for the other 95% shares not owned yet. Key shareholders of BIG will know the buyer's desperateness and ask for even higher price. Never show you true emotions at negotiation table and never show hand first. Keep your cards very close to your chest. Thats what the big boys will normally do.
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A02041315 Senior	23-Apr-2008 16:53        A02041315 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	16:51:23 0.750 2,000 Buy Up 16:50:37 0.750 20,000 Buy Up 16:47:17 0.750 30,000 Buy Up 16:47:03 0.750 10,000 Buy Up 16:47:02 0.750 7,000 Buy Up 16:46:21 0.750 6,000 Buy Up 16:46:16 0.750 100,000 Buy Up 16:44:48 0.750 20,000 Buy Up 16:44:44 0.750 72,000 Sell Down 16:43:41 0.750 10,000 Buy Up 16:43:28 0.750 10,000 Buy Up 16:43:13 0.750 449,000 Buy Up
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bengster68 Master	23-Apr-2008 11:59        bengster68 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Terumo uses BIG's technology and copy exactly the same Biomatrix design and specs for NOBORI. Terumo manufactures their NOBORI in their own factory. The manufacturing cost of DES ranges from US$200 to 400 per stent (depending on volume of production). For simplicity, I assume  Terumo produce NOBORI at US$350 (due to low initial sales volume) but i believe the manufacturing cost can be reduced to US$250 per NOBORI 2 years down the road when NOBORI captures a larger market share. We assume selling price of  NOBORI to be about US$2,000. Under the old agreement, i believe BIG should be taking somewhere around 40% royalty of sales, which is about US$800 per NOBORI sold. I assume under the revised US$40m upfront payment, royalty has been reduced to somewhere in the region of 30% of sales, that means BIG gets about US$600 per NOBORI sold by Terumo. So under the old agreement, Terumo could be making (2000-350-800)= US$850 per NOBORI sold. Under the new agreement, Terumo could be making (200-350-600)=US$1,050. If after 2 yeasrs Terumo can capture bigger market share and cost of manufacturing drops significantly, they could be making (2000-250-600)=US$1,150 per NOBORI sold. This is assuming the average selling price remains. However, selling and distribution costs are pretty high for medical devices.  Terumo has their own in-house brand of balloon catether delivery system. For simplicity, i assume selling price should be around US$1000 and cost of manufacturing around US$300. So each delivery system Terumo sell, they get US$700 profit. Add the US$1,050 profit they are making now for the reduced royalty plan, Terumo will be making US$1,750 out from the US$3,000 sales value of NOBORI DES and Terumo brand delivery system. If first year after launch Terumo manage to sell 20,000 sets of NOBORI cum delivery system in CE approved markets, Terumo's gross profit (after royalty) should be around US$35m (before deducting many other selling expenses). Second year if Terumo manage to sell 40,000 sets in CE markets, they should be making US$70m. I assume annual Japan DES sales to be US$600m. Normally, things are selling more expensive in Japan so maybe each DES cost US$2,500 in Japan. I estimate Japan has a market of around 240,000 DES per year. Assume Terumo can capture 20% of Japan market share in the first year, thats 40,000 DESs. Add another 40,000 sets (including delivery system), Terumo can sell in Japan on the first year after Japan approval, Terumo can tan tua lui liao!!! Biosensors Keow Kar Yeo L.P. also can collect tens of millions of royalties from Terumo. The more market share Terumo capture, the more BIG will be making. 3 years down the road i wouldn't be surprised Terumo if is paying annual royalty of US$100m to BIG when Terumo manage to corner the Japan DES market with NOBORI. I believe this figure is achieveable. Terumo is just one of the licensee of BIG. Still got 2 other smaller licensee, no USA licensee yet (may have one after LEADERS trial results if no takeover) and BIG's own profits from own business operations. BIG will be making similar figures like Terumo but less royalty payment because all proprietary technology and patents). Also, dont forget about China JWMS will be making US$25m this year and US$40m next year and US$60m the year after. BIG is still super value now at 75cts. Past yearly losses is nothing compared to change in company's fundamentals and the future earnings potential of BIG after CE approval.
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allright Senior	23-Apr-2008 11:11        allright About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks cwwann, you managed to paste and copy..I couldn't so it must be my computer.Hope the other analysts' views are just as positive
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cwwan1 Member	23-Apr-2008 10:44        cwwan1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Summary: Biosensors International Group (Biosensors) announced yesterday that it had revised its 5-year licensing agreement with Terumo. Terumo will now pay Biosensors an upfront fee of US$40m (on top of US$14m previously) but incorporate a lower revenue sharing component applicable to sales outside of Japan. Though no further details were available, our conversation with management indicates that the new terms are favourable in nature and seeks to induce positive momentum for Terumo to increase its NOBORI DES sales. Please view our last report, "The Terumo Conundrum", to see our comments on Biosensor's need to achieve relationship equilibrium with Japan's biggest medical device manufacturer. Recently, Biosensor's subsidiary, JW Medical, reported positive results on its proprietary EXCEL DES in an international conference. We are also expecting positive news flow from its clinical trials in the months ahead. Maintain BUY with fair value of S$1.23. (Kelly Chia)
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allright Senior	23-Apr-2008 10:40        allright About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Oh no...Citigroup says attractive and "upfront payments have its attraction " etc but trims target...sigh
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jennlsk Member	23-Apr-2008 10:28        jennlsk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DJ MARKET TALK: Citigroup Trims Biosensors Target; Reiterates Buy (2008-04-23 02:25:00) 0225 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup trims Biosensors (B20.SG) target price to S$1.13 from S$1.28; maintains Buy rating after company announces review of license agreement with Terumo. Broker says in note, lower target price reflects reduced royalty payments under new terms of agreement. But adds, company says revised terms are still very attractive and upfront payment does have its attractions. "With the cash infusion, Biosensors will have additional funds to fund its marketing plans for Biomatrix and continue with its ongoing R&D." Share +2.0% at S$0.755. (KIG) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 22, 2008 22:25 ET (02:25 GMT) Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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allright Senior	23-Apr-2008 10:27        allright About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	OK may be the broking houses are protecting themselves. Can't seem to copy their analysts reports and paste for you guys but from DJ wire its ok...Whatever, take comfort that the 3 DB, OCBC and now UBS have viewed the latest announcement in a positive light.
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