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blurfonz
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05-Dec-2007 01:11
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Dow is now -26 Seems like its gonna be a tough road to bring it on the Green side tonight. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
04-Dec-2007 20:27
Yells: "hello!" |
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Skittish on Wall StreetStocks set for lower open amid fresh worries about economic outlook, mortgage crisis and Merck warning.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were poised for a lower open Tuesday as Federal Reserve officials voiced new worries about the economy, drugmaker Merck warned about upcoming earnings and lawmakers turned their sights on credit card debt as a fresh area of worry. At 6:26 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, pointing to a weak open for Wall Street, which saw a four-day rally for blue chips end on Monday. Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen offered a bleak forecast for the housing sector and economy on Monday, renewing jitters on Wall Street. Rosengren said early in the day he was worried foreclosures would worsen, while Yellen warned late in the afternoon about weak economic growth in the fourth quarter. Economic weakness is likely to lead the central bank to keep cutting interest rates - which is usually a positive for stocks. Last week's rally was fueled by hopes for more Fed rate cuts. But as the outlook for the economy becomes more dismal, skittish investors could turn away from risky assets like stocks and pile into safe havens like Treasury bonds. Drugmaker Merck, a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, said its 2007 earnings per share would be $3.08 to $3.14, and 2008 earnings would be $3.28 to $3.38. The high end of both of those ranges are just below the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call, which is for 2007 EPS of $3.15 and 2008 EPS of $3.39. A Senate panel is set to hold a hearing Tuesday about practices in the credit card industry. The chairman of the panel, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., has voiced support for legislation that would limit card issuers' ability to raise customers' interest rates if their credit scores declined. Officials of Discover (Charts), Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500) and Capital One (Charts, Fortune 500) are due testify at Tuesday's hearing. On the campaign trail Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama also proposed restrictions on what he called "predatory" credit card companies, which he said deceive consumers into piling up massive debt they have little hope of repaying. He said soaring credit card debt could match the subprime mortgage market meltdown as a problem for the U.S. economy. Fannie Mae (Charts) could be the next major financial firm to report big losses due to the mortgage meltdown. The company could face as much as $5 billion in writedowns, according to Fortune. In other corporate news, online auction site eBay (Charts, Fortune 500) announced a partnership with Yahoo (Charts, Fortune 500) to help it return to Japan, a market it exited in 2002. No. 1 cell phone maker Nokia (Charts) said Tuesday it expects the global market for mobile devices to grow 10 percent in 2008 to more than 1.2 billion. The company said its share will also increase and raised its target for its operating margin. But markets were disappointed in the forecasts and shares of Nokia slipped 3 percent in early trading in Helsinki. In global trade, major markets in Asia finished the session mixed, with Japanese stocks ending lower. European stocks fell in midday trading.Oil prices, which just a week ago appeared poised to cross the $100 a barrel threshold for the first time, continued to slide ahead of Wednesday's meeting of OPEC oil ministers and the weekly report on U.S. fuel stockpiles, also due Wednesday. A barrel of light sweet crude fell 76 cents to $88.55 |
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Manikamaniko.
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03-Dec-2007 22:58
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The August fall is quickly recovered because it reflected a lot of panic selling, as shown on the chart. But the present weakness appears to be an orderly downtrend ie. the bear market is in progress... 
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mirage
Veteran |
03-Dec-2007 13:40
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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets were mixed in range-bound trading Monday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 slipping into the red as weaker capital-spending data pressured industrial shares such as robot-maker Fanuc Ltd. Hong Kong brushed aside the cautious mood to lead the region higher as investors piled into Cheung Kong Holdings and other property stocks on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Australian markets moved in and out of positive territory, with commodity stocks such as BHP Billiton (BHP:
BHP
Sponsored by: Tokyo's Nikkei traded 0.3% lower in the afternoon session, falling 55 points to 15,625. The Topix index eased 0.2% to 1,529.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index ended the morning session 0.9% higher at 28,907 while the Hang Seng China Enterprises index was up 0.6% to 17,288.
Rate-sensitive property shares were on the move on signs the Fed could be poised to reduce its benchmark lending rate at its Dec. 11 policy meeting. Shares of Cheung Kong (HK:1: news, chart, profile) (CHEUY:
CHEUY
Sponsored by: SWRAY
Sponsored by: Gainers also included Standard Chartered Bank (HK:2888: news, chart, profile) , shares of which climbed 6.2%.
"It's the expectation of an interest rate cut," said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong, referring to the positive momentum in Hong Kong.
Merrill Lynch said Monday that the Hong Kong market was discounting a 0.25-percentage point interest rate cut this month. The broker forecasts the Fed funds rate will fall to 2.5% next year.
"Further downside to the Hang Seng Index from current levels should be limited," Merrill Lynch analysts wrote in a research note Monday, citing ample liquidity, strong earnings growth and abating short-selling pressure.
The mood in Hong Kong was also bolstered by a strong debut in Shanghai for China Railway Group, whose shares were quoted at 7.92 yuan, up 65% from their IPO price of 4.80 yuan.
The upbeat debut moved against the general tide, as the benchmark Shanghai Composite index fell 0.6% at 4,842.
Traders said investors were reluctant to take big bets in the final closing weeks of the year.
"People will take the view of being long the markets but not of any great size," said Andrew Sullivan, head of trading at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Hong Kong. "There are only really a couple of weeks (of) trading before the end of the year."
In other regional action, Sydney's ASX/200 fell 0.1%% to 6,529, Seoul's Kospi was 0.7% lower at 1,891, and Singapore's Straits Times index was up 1.1% at 3,559.
In currencies, the U.S. dollar was quoted at 110.53 yen compared to its level of 110.90 yen in late New York trading Friday.
Crude oil for January delivery rose as much as 80 cents to $89.51 a barrel in electronic trading. The front-month contract shed $2.30 to end at $88.71 Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other Tokyo trading, shares of industrial robot maker Fanuc Ltd. (JP:6954: news, chart, profile) retreated 2.3% after data showed weaker outlays by Japanese corporations.
Capital spending fell 1.2% to 13.911 trillion yen in July to September period from the year-earlier quarter, marking the second straight quarterly decline, the Ministry of Finance and said Monday in Tokyo. The business investment figures, which include investments in software, showed spending in the manufacturing sector climbed 6.1% while those in the non-manufacturing sector fell 5.1%.
The figures were better than consensus estimates of a 2.5% decline. Analysts said other areas of the report suggested a deteriorating picture.
"Other than capex, the tone of the report was soft, with growth in sales and profits weakening," wrote Lehman Brother's Japan economist Hiroshi Shiraishi in a research note. He added Japan's gross domestic product growth of 2.6% in the third quarter was "unlikely to be revised up significantly" from earlier estimates.
Steel makers were in focus after the Nikkei daily said Nippon Steel Corp. (JP:5401: news, chart, profile) , Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. (JP:5405: news, chart, profile) and Kobe Steel Ltd. (JP:5406: news, chart, profile) were planning to spend a combined 250 billion yen ($2.25 billion) to raise annual steel production 7% by 2012.
Shares of Nippon Steel added 0.9%, Sumitomo Metal fell 0.8% and Kobe Steel fell 0.8%.
Shares of Nintendo Co (JP:7974: news, chart, profile) rose 0.7% while Honda Motor Corp. (JP:7267: news, chart, profile) (HMC:
HMC
Sponsored by: In Sydney, shares of BHP Billiton added 0.3% while Rio Tinto Plc (AU:RIO: news, chart, profile) (RTP:
RTP
Sponsored by: On Wall Street Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:
$INDU
Sponsored by: $SPX
Sponsored by: $COMPQ
Sponsored by:  Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Asia bureau chief, based in Hong Kong.
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Maniam
Member |
03-Dec-2007 00:03
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I think Ben will cut 0.5%...and dow will rally for the moment..with gold this round behaving opposite by going down..to 750..then come Jan to Mar more cockroaches will crawl out under the fridge to cause dow to tumble to 11800..then 9000..then...u guess..gold will run up to 900..hopefullyy..sell to strength is what i will do...and join the rally..and get off fast with the profit...it is best to buy stock now and wait,then sell and run.. |
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tanglinboy
Elite |
01-Dec-2007 18:27
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Hope grows for a half-point cutRecent comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and vice chair Donald Kohn indicate a rate cut is likely on Dec. 11. The only question is how big?NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A quarter of a point cut or a half of a point cut? That is the big question for investors to grapple with between now and the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on Dec. 11. Wall Street has heard signals loud and clear that a cut is coming. First, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said on Wednesday that the central bank needed to be "nimble," and then on Thursday night Fed chair Ben Bernanke, speaking before a business group in Charlotte, N.C., indicated that the Fed will stay "alert" and "flexible." "Bernanke gave the markets an early Christmas gift last night in Charlotte. If there were any doubts about a rate cut, they are now gone. He wrapped it up, stamped it and sent it in the mail," said John Norris, managing director of Oakworth Capital, a private bank based in Birmingham, Ala. According to futures listed on the Chicago Board of Trade, investors are placing a 100 percent bet that the Fed will lower the key federal funds rate by at least a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 percent. What's more, traders are factoring in a 34 percent probability of a half-point cut to 4 percent. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
30-Nov-2007 23:57
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Suddenly good news keep coming out to push DOW further up. now DOw is over bought, due for some retracement, and become more overbought with 2 remarks from FED day after another. was expecting DOW to push till 13600+ but now it may hit that faster than i thought. abit too fast thou. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Maniam
Member |
30-Nov-2007 17:04
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I would say..what we are seeing is one up and two step down...eventually further rate cut will not longer have any effect..becos of the weak dollars....do you know fed just bump into market 7b.. http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1225 We got reason to believe all figure by fed are nothing but makeup for political reasons.. |
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mirage
Veteran |
30-Nov-2007 11:54
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Quotes: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Thursday, ending mildly higher after the stock market's biggest two-day jump up in five years, as mostly bearish economic news competed with thoughts of another interest-rate cut ahead.
"Bad news is good news as it pertains to the Fed, so there is some solace to be gained," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Up and down throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU:
INDU
Sponsored by: "It doesn't take much good news to move up, and unfortunately it doesn't take much to move it back down," said Hogan.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX:
S&P 500 Index
Last: 1,469.72+0.70+0.05%
4:59pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Nasdaq Composite Index
Last: 2,668.13+5.22+0.20%
5:17pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: "After [Wednesday's] surge, there will likely be some minor profit-taking during the course of the day; [the rising price of] oil is going to restrain further upward movements," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
Stock indexes had pulled lower under the weight of rising oil prices and a 99% profit drop at Sears Holdings Corp., and then declined further after the Commerce Department said that builders cut prices the most in 26 years in October, boosting sales of new homes. Sales rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000 in October from a downwardly revised 716,000 in September, an 11-year low. See full story.
Earlier data also had the government reporting a rise in weekly jobless claims to near two-year highs, along with an upward revision in third-quarter U.S. economic growth to 4.9%. Read Economic Report.
Shares of Sears (SHLD:
sears hldgs corp com
Last: 104.09-12.25-10.53%
5:22pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Shares of other retailers fell as well, with the S&P Retail Index (RLX:
s&p retail index-rlx
Last: 427.46-3.13-0.73%
4:29pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: On the New York Stock Exchange, more than 1.3 billion shares traded hands, and declining stocks slightly outpaced those advancing about 9 to 7. On the Nasdaq, more than 2.1 billion shares were exchanged, and decliners topped advancers about 8 to 7.
Wall Street's "primary trend is now bearish," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services.
 Listen to Carlson. Oil up
Crude futures rallied as much as $4 a barrel after a fire crippled a key pipeline bringing Canadian oil into the United States.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures ended up 39 cents at $91.04 a barrel, after rising $4.55 to an intraday high of $95.17 a barrel in electronic trade earlier. See Futures Movers.
Elsewhere on the NYME, Gold for December delivery fell $5 to finish at $795.3 an ounce. Read Metals Stocks.
The dollar held gains against the euro, with the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, at 75.58, up from 75.185 late Wednesday. See Currencies.
Treasury prices rallied, with the benchmark 10-year note up 26/32 to 102 17/32, its yield (TNX:
CBOE 10-Year Treasury Yield Index
Last: 39.40-0.85-2.11%
2:59pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Active issues
Private-equity firm Citadel will swap $2.5 billion to increase its stake in E-Trade Financial (ETFC:
e trade financial corp com
Last: 4.82-0.46-8.71%
5:22pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Up earlier on, E-Trade shares were recently down 6.5%.
H.J. Heinz Co. (HNZ:
H.J. Heinz Company
Last: 47.54+0.35+0.74%
4:01pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: After the close of trading, PC maker Dell Inc. (DELL:
dell inc com
Last: 28.14+0.45+1.63%
5:23pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: brocade communications sys i com new
Last: 7.74+0.04+0.52%
4:00pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: j crew group inc com
Last: 40.30-0.34-0.84%
4:01pm 11/29/2007 Delayed quote data Sponsored by: Overseas, the Nikkei 225 climbed 2.4% See Asia Markets, while the FTSE 100 traded flat. Read Europe Markets.
On Wednesday, U.S. stocks surged for another day, with the Dow tallying its biggest two-day gain since 2002, as investors cheered Federal Reserve talk seen as signaling a further interest-rate cut next month.
More central-bank talk was expected after Thursday's close, with Fed Gov. Frederic Mishkin and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke slated to speak
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Pinnacle
Master |
29-Nov-2007 08:31
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Dow surges 331 pointsStocks rally on hopes of more rate cuts by the Fed and help from the financials.Stocks surged Wednesday, with the Dow industrials rallying 331 points, after comments from a Federal Reserve official sparked bets that the central bank will cut rates again at its next policy meeting.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers six to one on volume of 1.76 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by nearly four to one as 2.51 billion shares exchanged hands. Among the biggest stock gainers were the embattled financials. Shares of Wall Street's biggest banks including Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500), Merrill Lynch (Charts, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (Charts, Fortune 500) were all sharply higher. The AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer index (Charts) gained nearly 6 percent. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (Charts, Fortune 500) said late Tuesday that it would take a $1.4 billion hit in the fourth quarter for loan losses related to home equity loans. However, shares of the bank jumped with the broader market Wednesday, perhaps on relief that the hit wasn't bigger. Investors also sent Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500) shares up over 14 percent, even after it cut its dividend in half and said it would sell $6 billion of stock to bolster its finances in anticipation of additional losses. The mortgage finance firm last week announced a $2 billion loss. But gains were broad based, with all 30 Dow stocks rising, led by AIG (Charts, Fortune 500). A steep decline in oil prices gave a boost to companies that directly depend on fuel, such as airlines, railroads and truckers. The Dow Jones Transportation (Charts) average gained 3.6 percent. Oil prices fell sharply for the second straight day on a smaller-than-expected dip in crude oil and distillate supplies. Light, sweet crude for January delivery tumbled $3.80 to settle at $90.62 a barrel Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Treasury prices tumbled as investors pulled money out of bonds for a second straight session. Corresponding yields headed higher, lifting the yield on the 10-year note to 4.03 percent from 3.94 percent late Tuesday. In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and yen. COMEX gold for February delivery tumbled $14 to settle at $807.20 an ounce, falling along with other dollar-traded commodities. Investors appeared to be unfazed by a flurry of soft economic readings and more troubling news from the financial sector. The Federal Reserve said that the economy grew at a slower pace in the late fall in its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions. The slowdown was a result of consumers and businesses feeling the squeeze of the housing slump and the credit market crisis. Existing new home sales fell to an all-time low in October, according to the latest reading from the National Association of Realtors. (Full story). An earlier report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders in October. |
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Pinnacle
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29-Nov-2007 00:03
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Existing home sales fall to record low in Oct Existing home sales fell 1.2 percent in October to a record low 4.97 million-unit pace, according to a report on Wednesday that showed the downturn in the U.S. housing market was deepening. Home prices fell at a record pace and the inventory of homes for sales increased as the housing market felt the pinch of tighter lending standards. The median existing home price fell 5.1 percent from a year ago to $207,800 and the total housing inventory rose 1.9 percent in October to 4.45 million existing homes for sale, a 10.8 month supply at the current sales pace. The sales pace was the lowest since the realty trade group began tracking both single-family and condo sales jointly in 1999. Economists polled by Reuters were expecting home resales to fall to a 5.00 million-unit pace from the 5.04 million-unit rate initially reported for September. The September sales pace was revised to a 5.03 million unit rate. Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist, blamed the poor home selling market on a continuing credit crunch and failing subprime loans that were offered to borrowers despite their shaky credit. "The subprime market has essentially disappeared," he said. |
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 23:29
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Now it looks more like a technical rebound from banks, which may have a sharp sell-off later today to register profit. Let's keep our fingers cross. Market rallies as banks extend rebound Stocks rallied on Wednesday as financial shares extended their comeback for a second day, helped by remarks by a Federal Reserve official that raised hopes of an interest rate cut. Financials were leading the Dow and S&P following Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn's comments. The group has struggled under tight credit conditions. "Kohn had mentioned that he sees a high risk to economic growth, and given that he's claiming the Fed has to be pragmatic, that could mean rate cuts in December," said Stephen Carl, principal and head of U.S. equity trading at The Williams Capital Group LP. "That's fueling the market right now. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 112.51 points, or 0.87 percent, at 13,070.95. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 14.53 points, or 1.02 percent, at 1,442.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 36.21 points, or 1.40 percent, at 2,617.01. Shares of Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which helped kick off the rebound on Tuesday after getting a capital injection from Abu Dhabi, was the biggest contributor to the S&P's advance. Shares of insurer American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was the biggest gainer on the Dow. Citi shares rose 4.5 percent to $31.65 and AIG stock was up 5.2 percent to $57.37. Kohn said he factored some tightening of credit from the financial turmoil into his policy decisions, but that recent turbulence may restrict credit more than previously thought. Shares of Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which fell in after-hours trading on Tuesday after announcing it would take a $1.4 billion charge in the fourth quarter for mortgage losses, were up sharply. Likewise, shares of Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the second-biggest provider of money for U.S. home loans, bounced back from a decline after it cut its dividend by 50 percent and will sell preferred stock. Freddie shares jumped more than 6 percent to $27.33. Wells Fargo stock was up 4.3 percent to $31.11. Shares of online retailers were trading higher after data showed U.S. shoppers spent a record $733 million on "Cyber Monday," up 21 percent from the same day a year ago, according to market research firm comScore. Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN.O: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 2 percent to $87.25. EBay (EBAY.O: Quote, Profile, Research) stock gained 3 percent to $33.48. |
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 23:20
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U.S. Oct existing home sales fell 1.2 pct , but the market still going strong. Looks like there is going to be a reversal after lunch break.
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 23:16
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Bad news on the way. Let's see how market perceive the news. Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast Orders for U.S. durable goods fell more than forecast in October, signaling companies are losing confidence the economic expansion will be sustained. The decline bears out Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn's warning today that market ``turbulence'' may discourage businesses and consumers from spending. Less investment adds to risks that growth will falter and force the central bank to cut interest rates again, economists said. ``It's pretty weak,'' said James O'Sullivan, a senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, who projected orders would drop 0.5 percent. ``We do expect growth to be weak for the next couple of quarters.'' The 0.4 percent drop in demand for cars, planes and other items made to last several years followed a revised 1.4 percent decrease in September, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Bookings were down for a third straight month, the longest losing streak in more than three years. Excluding transportation, demand fell 0.7 percent. The dollar pared gains after the report. Economists forecast orders would drop 0.1 percent, according to the median of 76 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, after a previously reported 1.7 percent decline for September. Estimates ranged from a decrease of 3 percent to 2.8 percent gain. Investment Proxy Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, decreased 2.3 percent, the most since February, after a 1.2 percent increase in September that was larger than previously estimated. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, dropped 1.2 percent after rising 1.7 percent in September, which was also more than reported last month. The economy probably grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter, a percentage point more than first estimated and the most in four years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed ahead of revised Commerce Department figures due tomorrow. The revision to September shipments of capital goods may push that forecast even higher. Growth will probably slow to a 1.5 percent pace this quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey taken earlier this month. Since then, economists at Bank of America Corp. and Merrill Lynch & Co. have been among those lowering the projected growth rate to less than 1 percent as consumer spending and business investment cool and the housing recession persists. Bookings excluding defense equipment decreased 0.9 percent. Demand for defense equipment rose 16 percent. Computer Demand The drop in total orders was led by an 8.4 percent decline in demand for computers and electronic gear. Bookings for automobiles and commercial aircraft also fell. Boeing Co., the world's second-largest maker of commercial planes, had orders for 56 aircraft in October, down from 132 a month earlier. Even so, demand this year has reached a record 1,047 planes, the company said on Nov. 21. It increased shipments last month to 42, from 34. Sales abroad are helping some firms weather slowing U.S. demand. Rockwell Automation Inc., the world's largest company focused solely on factory controls, said Nov. 12 that overseas sales will rise to the highest level ever this fiscal year. Demand outside the U.S. is expected to increase to 49 percent of the company's total for the year that began in October, from 46 percent last year, Chief Executive Officer Keith Nosbusch said in an interview. Export Growth ``One of our strategies is to get 50 percent sales growth outside the U.S.,'' said Nosbusch, 56. ``It's important that we diversify our revenue base so that we reduce the cyclicality of our business.'' The Institute for Supply Management's factory report for October showed manufacturing is on the verge of stalling, with the index falling to 50.9. The group's new orders gauge decreased to 52.5 and production dropped to 49.6, contracting for the first time since January. Regional reports provide a more optimistic look for this month. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's general economic index unexpectedly rose, to 8.2, and the New York Fed's measure was little changed from its October measure, which was the highest in three years. |
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cashiertan
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28-Nov-2007 23:12
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still too early to tell, wait for confirmation after lunch time. anyway, today rise kind of showing dow not behaving as it did for the past few weeks. either reversal or bull trap to create interest for buyers to take ther bait. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 23:11
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Kohn Sees Risk of Reduced Credit From Market Upheaval Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said recent market ``turbulence'' may reduce credit to businesses and consumers, suggesting he's open to lowering interest rates next month. ``The degree of deterioration that has happened over the last couple of weeks is not something that I personally anticipated,'' Kohn said in response to a question following a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. ``We are going to have to take a look at'' the stress in credit markets ``when we meet in a couple of weeks,'' he said. Kohn's remarks are a shift from the Federal Open Market Committee's Oct. 31 statement, reiterated by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke a week later, that risks between growth and inflation were ``roughly'' balanced. Stocks advanced after the comments reinforced some investors' expectations the Fed will cut its benchmark rate for a third straight meeting. Kohn ``has just given the markets the green light for a rate cut on Dec. 11,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. ``Restrictive credit costs will very likely lead to a dramatic slowing of the economy if the Fed doesn't take steps to forestall them.'' Federal funds futures show traders see a 94 percent probability of a quarter-point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 4.25 percent when the FOMC meets Dec. 11. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index rose 1.4 percent to 1,448.79 at 9:58 a.m. `Pragmatic and Flexible' Kohn said ``uncertainties'' about the economic outlook are ``unusually high'' now, requiring policy makers to be ``flexible and pragmatic'' in setting policy. His remarks were also a difference in tone from some regional Fed bank presidents, who have expressed concern that continued rate reductions may fuel inflation expectations. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in a speech in Rochester, New York, yesterday that further rate cuts could ``exacerbate'' moral hazard problems and raise inflation risks. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said monetary policy was properly calibrated to achieve both full employment and low inflation in separate remarks yesterday. ``Kohn's speech dismissed the moral hazard argument, made no real mention of inflation, and dwelled extensively on growth risks,'' said Michael Feroli, a former Fed Board staff member who is now an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``Kohn's speech today suggests the crucial center of the committee is moving toward a 25 basis point ease.'' Gauge of Risk Risk spreads on financial instruments have increased since the Fed met Oct. 30-31, an index tracked by Citigroup Global Markets Inc shows. The index rose to a high of 0.99 on Nov. 22 from 0.77 on Nov. 1, with 1 being the highest level of risk aversion. ``We will need to assess the implications of these developments, along with the vast array of incoming information on economic activity and prices, for the future path of the U.S. economy,'' Kohn said, referring to heightened market stress. He also indicated that the continued deterioration in housing markets, now the worst recession in 16 years, have surprised him. ``The housing sector has continued to decline and to erode at a very, very rapid rate,'' Kohn said in response to a question. ``It would be nice to see some early signs that it was beginning to stabilize, and we haven't seen that yet.'' Revealing Losses Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc. and other banks that underwrote so-called collateralized debt obligations linked to mortgages and other credits have already warned of losses of at least $47.2 billion on CDOs and other holdings. The securities slid as investors shunned assets linked to subprime U.S. mortgages following a surge in loan defaults. ``There's further to go'' in revealing losses, Kohn said today. He added that the more information that is made public about potential losses ``the better,'' as it will help ease uncertainty. Concern about the ultimate extent of writedowns have caused investors to flee bank stocks and bonds, and kept lending rates between banks above historical averages. Losses on CDOs at the world's biggest banks may double to $77 billion, JPMorgan analysts estimate. ``Heightened concerns about larger losses at financial institutions now reflected in various markets have depressed equity prices and could induce more intermediaries to adopt a more defensive posture in granting credit, not only for house purchases, but for other uses a well,'' Kohn said. `Policy Actions' He added that a ``broader repricing of risk'' that increases the cost of credit and discourages spending ``would require offsetting policy actions, other things being equal.'' Banks are trying to shore up their capital as analysts predict additional mortgage losses in 2008. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, agreed to sell as much as 4.9 percent of the company to the government of Abu Dhabi for $7.5 billion. Freddie Mac, the second-largest purchaser of American mortgages, plans to sell $6 billion in preferred stock and halve its dividend. Kohn noted that the short-term funding markets for banks remain under stress. Policy makers have responded, first lowering the charge on direct loans to banks in August, then reducing interest rates in the past two months. The Fed this week also committed to a series of long-term repurchase agreements through year-end to ease funding shortages. `Some Thought' Still, central banks ``need to give some thought to how all their liquidity facilities can remain effective when financial markets are under stress,'' Kohn said. Since Sept. 18, the federal funds rate has been reduced by 75 basis points. The Fed also cut the cost of direct loans from its discount window by 50 basis points in an unscheduled meeting Aug. 17 to address the liquidity needs of banks. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Kohn, 65, is one of the most senior members on the Federal Open Market Committee. He was director of the Monetary Affairs Division and special adviser on monetary policy under former chairman Alan Greenspan. Last week, Fed officials, in their first quarterly economic outlook, lowered forecasts for U.S. growth next year and suggested the expansion won't reach its trend rate until 2009. Fed policy makers now expect U.S. gross domestic product to increase 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent in 2008, ``notably below'' the 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent they predicted in July. `Soft' Spending Kohn said labor markets remain strong, which provides an important ``pillar'' for the economy. ``On the other side, the spending data have been maybe a little on the soft side,'' Kohn said. ``There has been a noticeable slowing in the growth of consumption.'' Fed officials forecast prices will rise 1.8 to 2.1 percent next year. Kohn said inflation risks remain a priority for the committee. ``I don't think the sources of risk that the committee saw on inflation at the last meeting haven't gone away,'' he said. Among private economists, the number anticipating a recession almost doubled in the past two months, the National Association for Business Economics said last week. The Fed will release its regional survey on the economy known as the Beige Book at 2 p.m. today. Bernanke speaks on the economy tomorrow. |
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 23:07
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Still going strong now. Let's see how it perform after the economic data announced.
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 22:52
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Market opens up Stocks opened higher on Wednesday and the Nasdaq rose more than 1 percent as comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn increased hopes for an interest rate cut. The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 94.63 points, or 0.73 percent, at 13,053.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 12.56 points, or 0.88 percent, at 1,440.79. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 32.19 points, or 1.25 percent, at 2,612.99. |
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Pinnacle
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28-Nov-2007 22:49
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World stocks erase early losses World stocks steadied while the dollar hit one-week highs on Wednesday as investors took heart from firmer U.S. stock futures and banking stocks, which calmed investor jitters about the impact of the credit woes on the financial sector. This week's news that Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) received a $7.5 billion capital injection from Abu Dhabi's investment followed a Wall Street Journal report that Citigroup received a call from a prominent investment banker suggesting a merger with Bank of America, although Citigroup dismissed the informal approach. Even with some encouraging news, investors are not without worries and price action has been choppy. Stress in the money market is worsening, with two-month euro interbank lending rates hitting fresh 6-1/2 year highs. The outlook on the banking sector holds key to overall investor risk appetite which has deteriorated due to persistent uncertainty over further writedowns by banks. "Banks have had a pretty poor time in the last few weeks. They have been taking a serious kicking. They are getting a bit of a rebound on the fact that... investors are saying they are not such a bad place to be," said Peter Dixon, UK economist at Commerzbank. The FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 1.3 percent on the day, while the MSCI main world equity index erased early losses to trade steady on the day. U.S. stock futures rose 0.7 percent, indicating a firmer open on Wall Street. There was a positive development in investor sentiment after ABX, a derivatives index tied to subprime mortgages, edged higher on Tuesday as the latest batch of U.S. loan performance data showed some signs that delinquencies might be increasing at a slower rate. TENSION LINGERS Tension in money markets worsened. London interbank offered rates (Libor) -- benchmark lending rates between banks -- for two-month euro rose to 4.73875 percent (LIBOR: Quote, Profile, Research), the highest since May 2001. In early August, rates were below 4.2 percent. Cash has become less available and more expensive since the credit crunch started in August as banks hoard cash as a contingency against credit-related losses. This general shortage is being exacerbated by liquidity concerns over the seasonally thin Christmas and New Year period. "The level of confidence remains quite low. Banks are still reluctant to lend because of counterparty risk and balance sheet constraints on their own side," said Nathalie Fillet, senior fixed income strategist at BNP Paribas. The dollar hit one-week highs of $1.4724 per euro and against a basket of major currencies. UBS's equity flow indicator showed a strong decrease in selling momentum of U.S. stocks last week, while the euro zone suffered the strongest outflow since May this year. "A sustained shift in favor of dollar-denominated assets would certainly assuage dollar-negative sentiment. Also, given that consumer spending is not deteriorating more markedly, there is some risk of a near-term squeeze of short-dollar positions," the bank said in a note to clients. The iTraxx Crossover index, the most widely watched indicator of European credit market sentiment, narrowed slightly to 376 basis points. Emerging sovereign spreads tightened 10 basis points, while emerging stocks were steady. The December Bund future was down 45 ticks. U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) steadied at $94.48 a barrel before a crucial OPEC meeting next week. Gold slipped to $798.25 an ounce.
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178investors
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28-Nov-2007 21:43
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+1.3%