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Wing Tai
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Wing Tai
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
29-Sep-2006 18:54
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As Wing Tai's landbank is skewed towards the mid- to high-end residential segment, it is well positioned to ride the current upswing. In 2Q06, prices of luxury residences escalated to new highs, and the average price has risen to $1,670 psf - the highest in nine years. Continued interest by foreign buyers should also bolster demand for high-end residences, boosted by Singapore's rising international profile. FY06 revenue and net profit soared 216% and 424% respectively, largely attributed to better sales of its development projects in Singapore, namely, Draycott 8, The Light at Cairnhill and Kovan Melody. We expect the remaining units of Draycott 8, Kovan Melody and VisionCrest to underpin earnings in FY07 as well as the progressive recognition from The Grange (97% sold), which will make its maiden contribution in FY07. It has been actively replenishing its landbank with the recent en bloc purchases of the Kallang Road, Newton Meadows, Phoenix Mansion and Belle Vue sites. As such, it has a strong line-up of projects for launch in FY07 onwards which places it in a favourable position to ride on the strong recovery in the property market. UOBKH raise their FY07 net profit forecast from $53.8m to $122.7m, and hence also lift their RNAV estimate from $1.53 to $2.02 to factor in the higher earnings. Historically, Wing Tai has traded between a premium of 40% to NAV (during the property boom cycle of 1994-96) and a discount of 50% (during the downturn in 2000-03). Their target price of $2.22 is pegged at 1.1x P/RNAV, in anticipation of the sustained upswing in the high-end residential segment and the improved financials. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
29-Aug-2006 23:37
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Full year net profit jumped fivefold, boosted by strong contributions from its residential property developments in S'pore, HK, Malaysia and China. Its investment properties and service apartments also enjoyed good occupancy of over 80% and higher rentals during the year. The luxury condo mkt is still robust. Demand for high-end units remained strong on continued buying interest from foreign buyers. It has a sizeable 1.2m of Gross Floor Area (GFA) landbank for development over the next 2-3 years. In Malaysia, it has 2.5m sft of GFA landbank. Given its large landbank, FY07 should be supported by a line of new and completed projects. It also has strong cashflows to replenish its landbank. Its apparel & lifestyle retail business has also been growing. Outlets have more than tripled to 133. KE and DBSV has a price targets of $2.09 and $2.12 respectively. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
20-Aug-2006 20:58
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Analyzing the candlestick chart, I observed that on 15 Aug there was a bullish Hammer pattern which broke through the previous resistance at $1.65. On 16 Aug, there was a Dark Cloud pattern warning of "rainy days" ahead. It was a bearish reversal pattern that continued the uptrend with a long white body gapping up at the open. This was confirmed when the next day opened at a high above the previous day's close then closed below the midpoint of the body of the previous day. A Black Marubozu occurred on 18 Aug. This indicated that sellers controlled the price action from first trade to the last trade. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-Aug-2006 23:09
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Another reason for its price run-up was the interest in the bidding for the Somerset Central tender. Lend Lease put in a winning bid of $617.2m, more than 16% above market expectations. Lend Lease are the owners of Parkway Parade and are involved in the Centrepoint upgrading and redevelopment of Allco's China Square Central Mall. Given its retail expertise, the site is expected to be developed fully into retail with no residentil component. Assuming a 10% IRR, Lend Lease us estimated to be factoring rents exceeding $18psf, from the current $12-$15psf. Beneficiaries from this site are Wheelock and Wing Tai from their large exposure to Orchard asset. On the basis of Orchard Road asset as a percentage of total NAV, Wheelock is ranked first with 56%, second is Wing Tai with 50.7% and followed by Allgreen with 21.5%. Allgreen and CapitaLand should also benefit from their large portfolio of retail assets. On a cautious note, CSFB has a price target of $1.59. |
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allantanhc
Veteran |
18-Aug-2006 11:38
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The counter gets volatile. When it reverses, the scale can be large and with speed too. Trade with care. May want to consider exit from the stock when it hits below $1.69. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
17-Aug-2006 21:11
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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I don't use candlesticks but I do see a possible trend reversal quite soon. |
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lewsh88
Senior |
17-Aug-2006 20:22
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Hi chartists: Is the WT 17Aug candle a "dark cloud" showing downtrend? Thanks. |
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hikitty
Master |
17-Aug-2006 17:46
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In-house stockists or syndicates' (or should they be called "buaya" or "sharks") daily bread is to create volatility in counters by rotation. More lots transacted at seller's price or vice versa does not represent a buying or selling signal. They pay a very low rate of brokerage or sometimes no brokerage, and thus can afford to play contra long or contra short at the same time. Thanks to those senior and veteran forum participants for taking the trouble to dispense invaluable words of caution not to "chase" after any shooting star or falling meteor. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
17-Aug-2006 15:37
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US data showed tame inflation, indicating that the Fed may pause interest rates. Property counters are prime benficiaries. And Wing Tai is one of them. Congrats to those who have bought. But the party looks like its over for now. |
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lowpeckkiyau
Member |
17-Aug-2006 13:50
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Yes, I understand that. tks to your good advice and guidance. Will hold on since I've held on for more than 7 yrs (1st purchase at $3.64 per lot). hopefully......just to get back my capital.... |
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Matthew8
Member |
17-Aug-2006 12:49
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lowpeckkiyau - No one is able to predict correctly how the price is going to move and when is the resistence level going to happen. You should ask Singaporegale on her TA views. Personally, I do not think Wing Tai is a bad stock although I have very little knowledge about FA. Since you have kept a few years already, my advice is to continue to hold. This is because WT has been moving up without any resistance and no correction is in sight yet. Besides, property counters were battered down and only recently picking up. WT is one counter which will be in my radar screen from now on and I will occasionally sent out alerts to buy. Continue to read my postings and follow behind the big fish to swim - whether it is up or down. It is not likely that you will go wrong. Opnions are purely mine own, not and inducement to buy or sell. |
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Lawrenchoo
Member |
17-Aug-2006 11:33
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To analyse if a stock on an uptrend as the potential to breakout more than the previous resistance level, I think it is useful to do some FA on it; if the revenue is better than the previous highpoint (of course taking into consideration that it is at least a quarter ago for if not you won't have the figures). If the FA result is not much better, then the probability it will hit the resistance and go down again or get stuck is higher, because of mentality,. (Stuck- because why should people pay more for a product which is not better than before?) and down because (If I made money at this point and it is not going up any further, why don't I sell and just confirm the profits/ or cut the losses here and look elsewhere) |
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Lawrenchoo
Member |
17-Aug-2006 11:18
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I don't think that is an evening star you are talking about but rather a shooting star (a single day one instead of 3 days). But for shooting start, this 16th bar did not seem to drop far enough, in my opinion, to be so, and further, there is more accumulation than distribution so people are still buying in on up trend on a slighter bigger volume. So I think it is not a definite downtrend yet but perhaps a correction for those who had earned. In my opinion , no confirmation from this one yet but it does pay to be cautious and watch closely this few days. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
17-Aug-2006 11:13
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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I share hikitty and lawrencehoo's view. This stock may be overbought but I think it has some more upward movement left. Not yet run out of steam. |
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hikitty
Master |
17-Aug-2006 11:09
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Unless there's a massive selldown (e.g. CAO and ACCS because of insolvency), there's no need to cut loss especially when it is on the uptrend, according to forum participant, Lawrenchoo. . But, pse cut loss if you need to for whatever reason when it hits $2 or thereabouts again. It will take some time to break out of its recent peak of $2.00 (It hit $2.00 recently after 7 long years). Wing Tai is a "volatile" stock for traders (commonly called "contra players"). It is a very illiquid share (i.e. low daily volume) as there has not been a broad-based rally since March 1999. |
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lewsh88
Senior |
17-Aug-2006 11:07
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Hi chartists: The RSI and W%R on this stock is stated as overbought. Is the candle for 16Aug an evening star showing the stock will be trending down any time? |
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Lawrenchoo
Member |
17-Aug-2006 09:47
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The bollinger bands are still expanding for this stock. Although the price had touched the upper band, the close is out of the band, which is good. RSI though, its high.. Overall, my take is that it still has some room to grow. |
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lowpeckkiyau
Member |
17-Aug-2006 08:23
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tks Matthew - at least I can see some sunshine now. But, average is about $2.03, still far off. Regretted did not go in to buy (to average again) when it drops to $1.3... something. If so, I would have got back all my capital now. If I cut loss now, I would incurr a loss of $1620. That's a big sum of money for only 6 lots. Will you be able to advise what is the resistance level and will decide to cut loss at that point. But, with the money will buy other good stock to cover my losses in this counter. thanks again. |
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Matthew8
Member |
16-Aug-2006 23:06
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lowpeckkiyau - Last night, I told you: "Do not be disheartened. I believe Wing Tai will continue to travel North tomorrow." As it turn out Wing Tai did charge northwards and was up 11 cents today. Hope it will reach your buy level soon. |
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Matthew8
Member |
16-Aug-2006 11:10
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hikitty - Thank you for you concern. I have been defeated by the sharks too many time in the past. Now, it is my turn to hit back. |
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