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NOL
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sgng123
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18-Jun-2013 13:52
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http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article424624.ece Top 3 carriers Maersk, MSC and CMA joining force to form P3 alliance on all trading route in 2014. This going to be very funning as it basically reduce the number of big players in container shipping industries from 4 to 3. P3, G6 and China/Korean with P3 controlling like 45% of major trade route, they might as well form a container cartel lol. Less undercutting each other and more exploiting of shippers, basically more and bigger GRI coming and guarantee to be successful due to less competition. 2014 might be the year when container industry recover strongly due to less competition. |
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sgng123
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18-Jun-2013 13:42
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NOL to remain flat till thurs when outcome of fed reserve meeting is known on wed night. Another one of the boring trading session with super low volume with everyone waiting on sideline and trade on news.. |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 23:23
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Market doing self correction and most likely stabilised after this week while waiting for Fed Reserve meeting result. Today STI drop below 3100 mark and rebound to finish at 3127. tomorrow might see short selling covering back before the week ended, this week very bad for asia stocks, bonds and currency. |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 20:36
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Market falling to right valuation but no one dared to buy cos of fear of more drop lol. Uncertainty is what killed markets and racking up of fear of recession so everyone is rushing for exit even had to stomach big loss thinking can buy back at cheaper prices. Problem is people don buyback at cheap price, normally they rush in when the markets are rally at historical high, human nature herd instinct. Anyway don go in and buy follow herd instinct and do day trading is more practical, don go against the market trend. Today STI reduce loss by half due to short covering, hope tomorrow calm would come to market. |
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springpig
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13-Jun-2013 17:11
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It's called Great Stock Sale(GSS)..  It's good for those who want to buy.. without GSS, how to go in? |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 09:54
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By the way STI just got demolished with 1 hour opening currently down -50 points approaching target of 3100. Everything down like 2-5% no one is spared but volume low, most likely short sellers or FM pushing down stocks to valuation preparing for the eventual QE3 tapering later this year. This June should be called brutal june lot of investors got burnt if they trade in the may-june period. |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 09:44
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peak season surcharge ( pss) only thing that can push up service contract rate, GRI only push up the spot rate for third party( open market). But today blood bath on market, everything got sold regardless making profit/loss, investors want to get out and hold cash only while waiting for fed reserve meeting next week. This kind of time call for calm and don jump into senseless selling, wait and see since we are not in recession but share price are crashing to recession level but also don buy anything just stay calm and wait out this storm. |
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harley22ez
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13-Jun-2013 00:48
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pss ?? no carrier is successful ... |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 00:36
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To add on, don look too much into spot freight rate. When SCFI hit historical high of 1500, Asia-Europe hit 1900 (TEU) and US 2800 in 2012 May, NOL share price still in this price range neither going up or down. This prove that spot rate had no share price enhancement to NOL nor is it telling us actual freight rate is surging. What count is the annual rate renegotiation in Apr/May that NOL get a higher base contract rate and peak season rate came in on 3Q and CNY period, if no PSS very hard for carriers to make money unless they got economic of scale and focus on maintaining very high load factor. |
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sgng123
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13-Jun-2013 00:19
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Spot rate on freight don tell us much about carriers profit since most of their business is through service contract with customer directly, no one know how much the actual freight rate till fiscal result is out. A big jump/drop in spot rate caused by supply/demand influence don directly affect profitability, what count is the damn Peak Season Surcharge basically no peak surcharge for the whole of 2012 result in losses for the smaller players. Big players like maesrk , MSC, CMA can squeeze out profit due to economic of scale their bigger ships offered plus placing a higher priority on profit than growth. This summer most likely going to be a repeat of last year no PSS, so for carriers to make money had to lower operating cost through using less ships to do the same cargo load. The lower the operating cost the more money u make, just follow what the America mnc are doing they are cutting cost to the bone and report big profit same revenue lol. |
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alexsmith
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12-Jun-2013 20:47
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Hmm..Not really. Today is like previous days, major selldown. Most of ALL STI blue chips are hit. Not just only Noble. Noble going down today doesn't translate the future price of oil anyway. Most of forward contracts are negotiated based on current spot rate. Just hope Maersk and Llyod could push up the Europe spot rate this coming July. Currently, all liners are rerouting from Europe route to transpacific lines. This explains why we see the drop in West/East Bound US market rate in the SCFI. Once this Europe rate recovers, it will create a cause effect as well on the US W/E rate. For those who had positioned, you guys migh continue to hold. It's a matter of time when this giant will wake up again. Tq. |
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sgng123
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12-Jun-2013 15:30
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Noble hit submarine level 0.985 signalling the end of commodity 10 years bull run, now oil can really dip low , good for nol as lower oil price help to counter low freight rate. |
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sgng123
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12-Jun-2013 14:13
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selldown continue but in a slower pace, property counter and reit hit hard today. |
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sgng123
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12-Jun-2013 00:42
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Asia - Europe spot rate is the reason why SCFI drop a lot but spot rate info is often inaccurate in predicting carriers profit. To make money in this overcapacity situation is to maintain a high load factor and cut excess capacity use less ships to transport same amount of cargo. Cut cost to the bone is the way to profitability, this year lot of transpacific / Europe charter ships are going to expire in nol case so more cost saving in coming quarters. It is the fight between which one would go lower ,freight rate or operating cost. In the end might just ended with a flat result or small profit/loss. But the sell off of asia stocks market continues as FM cashing out and shifting to cash, in fact they selling everything bonds, commodities, stocks etc. |
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alexsmith
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11-Jun-2013 23:20
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SCFI is dropping into terrible state. Not sure how much loss will NOL post this year. |
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sgng123
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11-Jun-2013 18:46
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lot of blue chips gona see red in the few days, massive outflow of cheap money from asia and all back to US market/ treasury. tomorrow might see another 30 pts drop for STI as the rout on asia equity continues. June is bad month for trading as FM liquidate their position and caused markets to tumble. I estimate STI to fall close to 3100 this week, might see support next week at 3050 then a relief rally with resistance at 3150. |
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rotiprata
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11-Jun-2013 16:29
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had been a long while since this NOL smells $1...go! go! go! |
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sgng123
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11-Jun-2013 11:15
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Market selloff of defensive/yield plays continues.... STI down by 38 pt at point of writing. Slide might continue this week till Fed Reserve QE3 tapering become more clearly defined. STI might hit 3100 this week, those who buy on dip basically would all get wiped out so good for the dumb analyst idea of buying on dip this week. |
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sgng123
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11-Jun-2013 10:25
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don know but from what it is doing, setting up individual companies to hold liner and logistic business might point to something but don know what is it. Today again hit by low volume and retail selling with resistance most likely at it book value 1.06, BB is out of market so share left to it own. Very boring cannot trade or short due to very little profit and high risk. |
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Belteshazzar
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11-Jun-2013 10:11
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will it list its facilities , ship asset??? |
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