Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors |
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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bengster68
Master |
27-May-2008 10:35
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Wah! P-A-E's presentation skills is very impressive. A lot of effort man, got highlighter some more. Anyone listened to the podcast already has anything info to share here? | ||||
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
27-May-2008 09:55
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While there were some ambiguity in the previous discussion about what type of polymers were covered in the claims and patent, it appears to me that the claim on "biodegradable stent" is fortunately much clearer. So make your own clonclusions about ABT's infringements...! If we study the same patent (US 6939379 B2), you can see that biodegadable stent plus limus is also well covered in the same patent. Yes.. the same patent. What a relief actually!!!! I am inlcluding claim 12 which is the more general one. Highligted part is the generalization of the stent. The rest of claim 12 says it carries the limus drug, etc. ![]() And claim 18 is the part covering the biodegadable version of the stent... ![]() I like the way this is worded.. since it covers both the substrate and the body, which is both a bioerodable polymer (which is so general!!). This way, no one can argue that the substrate is PLGA, blah blah blah .. and not covered in the patent and therefore has no infringement.
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limhpp
Veteran |
27-May-2008 09:33
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DJ MARKET TALK:Biosensors Off 4.1%;OCBC Cuts Fair Value To S$1.04 (2008/05/27 09:30AM) 0130 GMT [Dow Jones] Biosensors (B20.SG) down 4.1% at 5-day low of S$0.71 as prospect of more losses in coming quarters turns off investors after drug-eluting stent maker says it expects to book more charges as it streamlines operations. Lack of firm sales figures for its flagship BioMatrix stent, which recently received CE mark, also not helping stock as investors still awaiting takeup rate in Europe. Still, OCBC Investment Research retains Buy call, noting restructuring plans bode well for company as it moves all its production functions to Singapore from U.S., Netherlands to capitalize on lower cost base. Adds, while sales of BioMatrix stent "currently insignificant," strong interest at recent European conference may be precursor of healthy demand in future. But cuts fair value to S$1.04 from S$1.23 after lowering FY10 earnings forecast. Immediate support at S$0.70 (May 15 close). (FKH) Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires May 26, 2008 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT) Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. |
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allright
Senior |
27-May-2008 09:30
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OCBC |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
27-May-2008 09:26
![]() Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Miss que, in BT detailed page, 4th Q net loss USD 19m. But headline stated BIG aims to be region's top stent player. http://www.businesstimes.com.sg |
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
27-May-2008 09:15
![]() Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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Big wok, top ten loser, -0.035cts early the morning. Dun know why. No news on BT except Kepcorp. See sifus got input or not?. |
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limhpp
Veteran |
27-May-2008 09:07
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??? Why is there a sudden plunge ??? Save to collect now? | ||||
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bengster68
Master |
27-May-2008 02:31
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There could be many "claims" section under the patent. All the claims need to be read and fully understood. Claim 14. The stent of claim 12, wherin the stent body is a metal-filament structure, and the polymer substrate in the coating is selected from the group consisting of ....." could be one of the many claims to be more specific on metal backbone biodegradable polymer. I believe BIG is the first company to incorporate "limus drug on biodegradable polymer for DES use. The idea of fully biodegradable stent was mooted more than 10 years ago and BIG should have some patents covering 100% biodegradable polymer on limus drugs (perhaps somewhere inside one of the claims or in another patent filed). will have BIG also has their 100% biodegradable polymer DES without metal backbone. About one months ago, P-A-E show us an article that BIG has been awarded 2 new patents, one of which relates to Biomatrix-freedom (roughed metal backbone surface technology), the other relates to BIG's own ABSORB Biolimus DES. Now that so much questions has arised on BIG's patent issue, I think i need to speak to the DES expert as he is familiar with all these DES patents as well. But unfortunately it is quite difficult to fix an appointment with him as he is mostly in USA and travels frequently. I will try to catch him and ask much more indepth questions when he is in Singapore. I think Medtronic's Resolute DES still cannot win Xience and Biomatrix. Medical field are quite well known to be "fickle minded" in embracing newer / next generation technology products. Cypher and Taxus are last year's market leaders but this year will will see them lose this position. By next year, these 2 ex-market leaders will be wiped out. Like a Chinese saying, "New wave from behind pushes over the tired old waves". This probably explains why Endeavor can capture 20% USA market share within 3 months after FDA approval although quite a fair bit of cardiologists don't find Endeavor's performance impressive at all. I think for blood-clot cases, Xience is still higher than BMS but lower than first generation DES. Endeavor's blood clot cases are even higher than Taxus in Endeavor IV results for first 9 months but Endeavor's longer term blood-clot track record still looks promising. In general, the second generation DESs have better durable polymer technology than the first generation DESs. Using biodegradable polymer is a very good idea in DES industry now and shows very good potential in answering blood clot problems faced by many durable polymer DESs. Otherwise, this biodegradable polymer DES trend would not have been in the pipe-line by so many DES manufacturers. BIG is a pioneer in this biodegradable polymer DES field but with limited funds, plans for next generation DES clincial trials will have to be slowed down. When you are a small player, regulatory approvals will be harder to obtain due to lack of strong lobbying power. Sad to say this fact here but if Biomatrix is marketed by BIG, I would say it is a waste of this top class technology. If an American medical device MNC is having what BIG is having in terms of technology, then Biomatrix will be given a real chance to fight against other DESs with the same financial resources, branding, marketing skills, sales channel and connections with hospitals / doctors. BIG has too little financial resources to kick start their next generation DES in full swing (Biomatrix Freedom and 100% PLA biodegradable BiolimusA9 ABSORB DES). Sales of Biomatrix if done by an established American medical device MNC will be AT LEAST 3 times more than what BIG can sell. Abbott's ABSORB DES may be "good to see, no good to eat". It is to satisfy cardiologist's obssession that leaving no foreign object behind after interventional cardiovascular procedures should be the perfect scenario. I have looked at clinical results of ABSORB but don't find them impressive. In fact, Xience looks like its working better than ABSORB. But ABSORB DES offers people more choices of DES dangling the advantage of no foreign object left behind but i doubt if overall performance of ABSORB will work better than Xience when compared against many other beneficial areas of measurements to patients. The final verdict of comparing 100% fully bioabsorbale DES VS biodegradable polymer in a BMS backbone structure is still not out yet. Yes, Biomatrix's FDA approval will still be at least 2 years away but Biomatrix has penetrated into Europe market, a thriving Asia market and also fast expanding 3rd world markets. These are profits to be reaped for taking over BIG. These markets are low hanging fruits that the takeover buyer can just pluck and eat immediately. If BIG is a fully owned subsidiary of large MNC, BIG can definitely soar to much greater heights with the parent company's full backing. |
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bengster68
Master |
27-May-2008 01:23
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This company made US$20m profit when it was listed. The primary cause of yearly losses is due to CE delay. No one expected CE to be delayed for 2 extra years so that is why BIG bled money for 2 years. There are many blue chip counters with share price trading at 3 times NTA also. From FY2009, the pre-earnings stage of this company is over. The failed demo in a local hospital that you mentioned is refering to a SingLive demo by the "drug balloon method", not Biomatrix. Many other new alternative methods can boast whatever claims they want but until they can come out with a beautiful set of clinical results, these are just wild claims.
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altius
Member |
27-May-2008 00:14
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Hi Bengster. Thank you so much for your expertise and effort in discussing this company, it is very much appreciated. I do agree with you that Biosensors has developed a very good technology and drug eluting stent, perhaps best in class. HOWEVER, time is not on Biosensors side. While early trial resutls for Biosensors technology have been outstanding, the trial results for ABT's Xience and MDT's upcoming Resolute stent are also very good. The results for Xience in the SPIRIT III 2 year follow-up were very mpressive. This stent will receive FDA approval very soon and will, I think be the global market leader. Resolute will follow in a couple of years. It will be very difficult to show statistically significant superiority over these new stents in head to head clinical trials, and as such, they will be very difficult to unseat once they become entrenched as the market leaders. The idea of a biodegradeable polymer is great, especially when compared to the inflammatory and fibrin inducing polymers of the 1st generation DES, Cypher and Taxus. However, the polymers of Xience, Endeavor and Resolute have been shown to be very biocompatible.The Xience polymer has been tested out to 2 years and causes no more inflammation than a bare metal stent and the MDT stent may cause even less inflammation. So while Biosensors PLA technology sounds good, it may be difficult to prove any added benefit over these newer stents. Of course, technology does not stand still. ABT will be coming out with a new DES in '09 and possibly the Absorb stent soon after, raising the bar for all newer stents. JNJ seems committed to the Connor program, BSX has access to ABT technology through Promus, ABT and MDT have their own next generation DES, so who will buy Biosensors? Perhaps St. Jude, Terumo or Sorin would be interested. But if they do acquire Biosensors, what will they really get? They will still be at least 2 years away from FDA approval and even if they get approval, they may only have a stent that is as good, or maybe slightly better than the entrenched market leaders. Is it worth the risk and money? There is of course the patents and potential licensing fees that Biosensors may collect in the future, but these are not certain. The ABT Absorb stent uses Everolimus on a PLA stent. This may not infringe on Biosensors patent as I read below on point no. 14. "14. The stent of claim 12, wherin the stent body is a metal-filament structure,and the polymer substrate in the coating is selected from the group consisting of ....." The Absorb stent does not have a metal-filament structure and so is probably not in breach of the patent. There also appears to be some doubt as to whether the new JNJ stent is in breach. Of course, the Xience and Resolute stents are not in breach. While I think Biosensors has developed a very good DES technology, there is some risk with this company, as time is definitely not on their side. What are your thoughts? |
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Andrew
Master |
26-May-2008 23:21
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WOW, three years have passed and never even one div paid out or a profitable qtr. SGX website don't even has a Past Bonus.....column for them. Is this one of that few companies the SGX wavied the three year good track records prior to listings ?? I think so. They should put these types of companies in the secondary boards. It give pple a false impression that it is a fantastic company to own. I can only said, at this point in time, that Katong Lasksa Pte Ltd make more money than them. Also, a failed demo at a local hospital (please check, not sure)....you all still have faith in this ?? NTA : 18 UScts (company) 10 UScts (Group) inverted hor....watch out.. 74 cts is 3 times the intrinsic value. 750M company that generate no profit......simply awesome !!! |
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investor
Senior |
26-May-2008 22:59
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Presentation slides for FY08 are out - Biomatrix sales during the pre-launch period (ie between Jan 18 - End mar) is approx US$1.74m. Biosensors plan to launch biomatrix in China within next 12-18 mths and plan to cpature 30 % mkt share in 3 yrs. Also plan to capture 18 % in asia pacific, outside China, Japan and 10 % in Europe, all within 3 yrs. Guided for revenue of US100 - 115m for ye end mar 09 and US$250m by ye end mar 2011. (ie 3 yrs). For more details, go to their website. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
26-May-2008 22:24
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play by technicals less heartache. bios really need big hearted ppl to buy and hold . kudos to bengster and co for their bravery, hope they will be rewarded. |
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investor
Senior |
26-May-2008 21:48
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Although, the headline Q408 figures shows a loss of US$19.1m, in actual fact, nothing very much has changed. A more important figure to look at is the cash burn rate, and in this qtr, the cash/near cash has dropped from US$61.6m to US$54.2m, or a drop of US$7.35m, of which US$1.8m was spent in purchasing property/equipment,etc. The allowance for impairment of US$1.866m, US$1.835m and fair value adjustment of US$3.148m are all non-cash item, which works out to a total of US$6.849m. On top of that, their sales and mkting expenses has increased by US$3.17m. Taking these changes into account, it adds up to US$10.019m. Also, if you compare the sales of DES in this qtr of US$2.297m, vs Q308 (ie end dec 07) of US$1.1m, we can conclude that this figure is probably mostly due to the bio-matrix, as they have already stated that they intend to stop selling the Axxion DES. For info only. Kindly check all figures presented here yourself. |
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
26-May-2008 21:40
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So are these warrant/options paper losses or what?
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novena_33
Veteran |
26-May-2008 21:39
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piss...i told u never say never right.... ![]()
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bengster68
Master |
26-May-2008 20:52
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Nar Bei, didn't expect so many one-off exceptional items to come out. Freaking lousy last quarter. Lose US$20m for last quarter. I thought on 3/4/08 BIG announced they implanted 3,000 patients with Biomatrix after CE approval? "Fair value adjustment of derivatives" could be some kind of warrants/options that BIG is holding to purchase more Xtent shares. I believe this warrant/option was granted free to BIG when Xtent and BIG signed their licensing agreement some 4 to 5 years ago. Xtent and Devax are small companies so they try to conserve their cash position in seeking technology partnerships with BIG. on contrary, Terumo is an MNC with good cash positions and that propbably explains why we keep seeing Terumo giving BIG cash for matters relating to their licensing deal. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
26-May-2008 19:46
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like i said.. technical rulez. take profit and run in this kind of market. what inside news also is BS to me..heng never enter as it never reach my entry price. see my previous reply b4 anyone gonna be "unhappy" with me. So far BIOs is one of the better profits counter for me this year. thou it havent make much for me this few weeks. sad of such bad news. but than what is "bad" maybe be good and vice versa. |
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jackjames
Elite |
26-May-2008 19:38
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Ouch USD 19 millions loss... hmmm... can collect cheap tomorrow at 0.69? | ||||
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cwwan1
Member |
26-May-2008 19:29
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Dont understand all these one time charges. To me it seems like it always wait till the end of last quarter everything lump into one item call exceptional item which infact happen in 2007 and 2008 also. If one time how come year after year it is still there??? How come one time charges like "fair value adjustment of derivatives" went from positive to 100% negative"? | ||||
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