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NOL
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Octavia
Elite |
21-Jun-2013 13:09
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CIMB maintains U/p with $1.10 TP. House raised loss estimates for NOL in 2013 as believe the very weak spot rates in 2Q13, which are below 2Q12 levels for the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades, will hurt performance. Also, the transpacific annual contracts were likely renewed at flat levels. Although NOL indicated during house conference that it is likely to perform better in 2013 than in 2012, think that the improvement could be marginal as cost reduction efforts are offset by the weaker market. House also reduce profit forecasts in 2014-15. Stay Underperform and target price remains based on an FY13 P/BV of 1.1x (2011 historical average). De-rating catalysts include spot rate erosion after the 1 July rate hikes. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
21-Jun-2013 09:49
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Market tanking 60 point at open but currently reducing loss at -45, hope the market got over the QE tapering thing and move on. Better time ahead if US economy keep improving, currently best bet is stay on sideline and wait for BB to be fully vested before taking in the plunge. Stay safe and be safe from stock market shock and haze irritation. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
20-Jun-2013 22:27
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http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article424852.ece G6 taking out ships in Europe trade lane in jul - sep period, balancing supply and demand. Guess more consolidation in major trade lanes in progress since nobody is interested in gaining market share after the P3 announcement. More ships needed to be pulled out to ensure peak season contract rate take hold so let wait and see then. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
20-Jun-2013 13:13
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Market tumble today currently down by 70 points, but what killed me is the stupid haze PSI hit 299 by noon when I was about to go out to had lunch. It is very uncomfortable, had to wear N95 mask to go to food court looking like some special task force lol. STI might correct some more next week due to a clearer QE3 tapering road map after last night Fed meeting, share might rebound tomorrow due to buy in dip/short covering but don go in yet not time. Had to wait till July when FM come back from June holiday then can punt NOL. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
20-Jun-2013 00:36
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http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/containers/article424791.ece Nice article from lloydslist, Maersk is the first to approach arch rivals in forming P3 alliance that would last 10 years.... If they get their way and form P3 in 2014, it would mean a long period of rate stability for the whole container industry. If US/Europe economy recover in 2014 as what IMF/World bank/ ECB projected then good earning prospect for NOL due to better cost structure and stable freight rate due to P3 alliance. Let see how NOL perform tomorrow before deciding to join the share price recovering punting. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
19-Jun-2013 12:47
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Let the share price speak for itself and everyone can judge whether the P3 formation is good for the container industry or not. Today NOL spike to 1.15 before falling back due to profit taking on fear on central bank meeting later. The spike in share price most likely indicate the mega tie up of the top 3 liners is good for container industry, result in less rate war and better supply/demand balance not to mention 2014 no new ships would enter market due to little ordering in 2012/13. By the way watch out for NOL share price tomorrow when the fear of fed tapering is eased, might see gradual recovery of share price. Stock always move ahead of actual industry recovery so maybe 2H13 would see investors pricing in 2014 earning prospect. | ||||
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CSH123
Member |
19-Jun-2013 12:15
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When the ship reaches the dock, will u board :) | ||||
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Octavia
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 09:50
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MNC stands for Multi- National Corporation.
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rbgmauq
Member |
19-Jun-2013 09:45
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NOL has been showing support around 1.08 and resistance in the 1.17 price range. The technical indicator shows a strong buy with the 1.367 target price in six months. http://sgx.stoxline.com/quote.php?s=n03 |
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Octavia
Elite |
19-Jun-2013 09:40
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More competition ahead for the smaller players, after the three largest container shipping lines in the world Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping and CMA CGM, announced plans to set up an operational alliance called the P3 network on the three busiest trade routes of the Asia-Europe, trans-Pacific and transatlantic routes. The three groups, which combined operate about 37% of global container capacity are seeking regulatory approval and aims to start operating in 2Q14 with an initial capacity of 255 vessels, or 2.6m 20-foot equivalent units (TEU). The move underlines how badly the industry is struggling with overcapacity and volatile rates, which have fallen by as much as 70% in the past 12 mths. Drewry research note that the tie-up should get the green light from regulators as there are still more than 15 competing carriers on most trade routes and the combination of Maersk/MSC/CMA CGM in an operating alliance will not damage competition. The top three European liners together account for 45% and 23% market share in Asia-Europe and Transpacific route, respectively. They already have a significant advantage over their peers in terms of average vessel size, particularly in the Transpacific route (32% higher than peers). CMA-CGM and Maersk reported much-stronger results in 1Q13 vs peers. HSBC note that in theory, the aim of such an alliance is to reduce the operating costs in the industry. Note however that one of the liners house spoke with remains of the view that these European liners will take this opportunity to consolidate the main-lane trade and push inefficient, weaker liners out of the business. JP Morgan conclude that the P3 alliance would be the market leader, with 45.0% capacity share, way ahead of CKYH (Cosco, K Line, Yang Ming, Hanjin) alliance’s 17.4% and G6 alliance’s 19.2% (Grand Alliance’s 10.7% comprising Hapag-Lloyd, OOIL, NYK + New World Alliance’s 8.5% comprising NOL, Mitsui OSK, HMM). The flipside is that the alliance could crowd out the smaller players given the cost advantage of their larger-sized vessels, which would be negative for the Asian liners. This could force proper consolidation through alliances and/or M& A. House Stay cautious and stick with quality names: Top picks are Evergreen Marine and OOIL, which have lower exposure to Asia-Europe trade, stronger balance sheets and attractive valuations. Asian liners with the largest capacity exposure to Asia-Europe are CSCL, K-Line, Hanjin, HMM and Yang Ming, while the least exposed are SITC, Wan Hai, MOL, NOL and OOIL. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
19-Jun-2013 09:00
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What MNC is it? Maersk? My friend was in NOL before, the culture inside is very politic. Now in BP, easy job & good life. Hope the MNC is good for you to stay. Container shipping industry will be over capacity at least 5 to 10 years. Someone just can't understand what happen in this industry. Container vessel move to giant vessel, Maersk EEE series first delivery vessel in this year is 18000TEU. This is 4 times of a normal container vessel 4000 to 5000 TEU vessel. Supply (shipyards in China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and etc) are waiting to fill their capacity eagerly. The new vessels are always new, efficient, larger and cheaper. So long as this industry recover a bit like 2009 to 2010, new order will flood to market and deliver the vessels from 2012 to 2014 and spoil the freight rate. This story will keep repeating.
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tchoonw
Veteran |
19-Jun-2013 08:27
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I just joined this coy recently. But I got another offer from a mnc. U think should leave?
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ynnek1267
Master |
19-Jun-2013 08:12
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Now the freight rate is back to 2011 low. Another hundred million loss will be recorded in 2013. Coming quarter confirm loss big big.
Fat year 2014? Can survive in 2013 is??????? |
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ynnek1267
Master |
19-Jun-2013 08:07
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Really sing song. The money was raised for notes to fund billion dollar of new vessels. New vessels delivered one by one,ddon't need to pay ah. Where to find money to fill operating loss after selling headquarter? Right issue only.
The higher nol pump, the higher chance right issue come, not for expansion, just for filling the unstoppable operating loss. Wahahaha!!!!
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sgng123
Veteran |
18-Jun-2013 23:37
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US markets moving up in anticipation of easing of tapering talk after fed reserve meeting on wed, basically tomorrow sti would recover some more to 3250. Maybe ship would move some more due to better sentiment in container industry after the P3 formation less spot rate movement. July GRI on both Europe and US is like a take away after today P3 alliance announcement, basically no one in the industry going to undercut each other and carriers discipline are enforced | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
18-Jun-2013 20:19
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Ship today moving ok. With the industry leaders finally acknowledge to work together and now the overcapacity issue might be resolved soon. The possibility of any rate war in the next 2-3 years is virtually zero as the culprits are now working together ( Maersk, MSC and CMA). P3 formation would greatly take out excess capacity in industry in 2014 as what we seen in the other alliances G6 etc. Now I waiting to see any Lay up of capacity from Maersk, MSC and CMA just like what they did in 2009, purposely take out capacity and jack up the freight rate in expected economy recovery in 2010. If they lay up 10% of capacity then container carriers would had a fat year in 2014, this year freight rate most likely similar or a bit better than 2012. Share price might continue moving north like what happen in 2009 till 2010. By the way NOL don need right issue as they had like US1.3Billion and 700 million MTN loan still not drawn, lot of ammo left. |
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ynnek1267
Master |
18-Jun-2013 17:25
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Don't sing song lah. con newbie meh. Right issue coming soon lah. NOL got no money liao. Only can pump up and raise right. |
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stockmarketmind
Master |
18-Jun-2013 17:02
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
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Heavy breakout! Big profits! | ||||
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stockmarketmind
Master |
18-Jun-2013 15:13
Yells: "stockmarketmindgames" |
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The breakout in NOL! http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2013/06/nol-breakout.html |
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sgng123
Veteran |
18-Jun-2013 14:19
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NOL up 0.02 to 1.08 on P3 formation news, share price might build up after wed central banker meeting. Carriers joining force usually meant less rate war and more exploiting of higher spot freight rate which would meant more stable service contract rate. Top 3 arch rival containers joining force is a price mover to be reckon with , hope the share rally continues from here till year end. July GRI is likely to be a 100% success prepare for 3 fold increase in Europe spot rate and 20% surge in transpacific, maybe another big GRI is otw in august or sep GRI 1000 in aug? | ||||
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