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winsontkl
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 23:13
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Dow is down by 200 points now...will it reverse??? |
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idesa168
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 23:06
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Yes, I was with SPC when it was $4.14 (crude trading around US$51). And buying along the way up. Then gave up in August due to the huge drop across the board, but came back again at $5.50 range. Lots of talking the SPC share price does not tie with crude oil as they are on downstream rather than upstream. But somehow, when oil up, the share price usually go up. I want to believe in GOLD, but it is far too expensive now. The only way I can own GOLD now is only by buying the ETF. Elf can you tell me does the ETF price coincide with the GOLD price. if GOLD at $970, the ETF will trade US$97? I read somewhere about the OIL, GOLD and US$ relationship. It says the world agreed to trade oil in US$ since 1859. Since then, importing and exporting US$ became so lucrative that it contribute to certain % of the US GDP. Now there are talks that Europe are discussing to trade oil in Euro. Infact Iran had started trading oil in their currency a few weeks ago. This will dampen the US$. When US$ drops, like it is doing now, it will cost more to buy oil, hence crude oil trade at peak now. As for GOLD, it had been historically used as a hedge in US$. If the US$ drop, GOLD will go up. It is happening now. Also the world is running out of gold production, just like oil. These commodities are ready to surge. Plus if US gets into inflation problem, it will give hands to the GOLD. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 22:45
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how did you buy oil, idesa? SPC? the tanking was, in most probability, a given. No rally can be sustained. The key that it was shortlived was the fact that BOTH gold and oil spiked up last week/this week, even tho the dow rose. that was the cue to cut equities already. remember that gold/oil are weathervanes for the market; normally, they run counter to the stock market. when both stocks and gold run up, that means short lived rally, esp given the macro pic. |
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moneyface
Senior |
29-Feb-2008 22:43
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judging by the tanking.... may god have mercy on the dow.... |
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idesa168
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 22:32
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Thanks moneyface for the date. Elf, you are more kiasu/kiasi than me. When I see the date 18th, I thought to myself, must sell all by 17th. Then I saw your post sell by 14th...hehehe. Surprise cut, I think not. The Fed meeting is just 2 weeks away. I think they can wait till that date unless there's another rouge trader found in some world dominant banks. Yes, hold on to GOLD and OIL with your dear life. I play play oni with GOLD ETF, just 80 shares. Just to see if David Bensimon's report is credible. I have more physical gold in my safe box, my wife's jewellery...lol! I am bullish with OIL! I am anticipating OIL trading pattern in the past using $100 as the target price and once touched it dropped. This time I see $100 as the support line. Should see higher in the coming days, maybe US$115. Cheers! |
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moneyface
Senior |
29-Feb-2008 22:24
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wondering what will MR DOW will be attempting today... ding dong dong dong |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 22:16
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ah. sell all by 14th march then. ;) dow opening in 13 mins. let the tanking begin! wonder if there may be a surprise cut sometime though.... |
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moneyface
Senior |
29-Feb-2008 21:57
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18th march |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 21:25
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gah. see lah. happily reading your gold/oil post and forgot what i came here for: does anyone know when the Fed is due to meet for march? wall street is pricing in 100% expectation of a half pt rate cut. The date will be crucial to time tech rebound. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 21:23
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haha. thanks idesa. sweet of ya. 
oil. well, i figured one of the two is good enough. can't be too greedy. 
hold onto gold. don't need to release so soon. fyi only yea. caveat applies to all things i say. 
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idesa168
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 21:02
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Elf, that articles post specially for you, that I know you are in GOLD. I am in OIL...hehehe....but basically post to benefit the general and those enjoy reading optimistic reports! I tried my luck today by getting into GOLD ETF this morning at US$96.20. Closed at US$98.00 |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 20:53
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idesa. gold. HEEHEE. :P my target sell for it is 1,100 actually.. by techs, it shd be shortterm max 1,200. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 20:51
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hey winstontkl, no prob abt the calls. and erm, i didn't mean buy them today...cos today's friday, cfm DJIA will be down. so not time yet to bottomfish for calls. 2,800 first consideration for strike, remember? ;) |
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idesa168
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 20:22
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Some of you may find this article interesting. Crude Oil at US$125, Gold at US$1,200 then $2,600. Enjoy! Spot on with the near-term calls The principle behind technical analyst David Bensimon's accurate forecasts lies in the symmetries in markets, reports GENEVIEVE CUA MAKING forecasts is a tricky business, as many analysts and fund managers will tell you, but it does not faze technical analyst David Bensimon. Some of his calls on the markets have been so precise that on one of his speaking engagements, it spurred an impromptu bidding war among some in the audience for an on-the-spot copy of his award winning tome on markets, Polar Perspectives. Mr Bensimon: Asia is in for a prosperity-driven inflationary era One of the bidders paid for his copy with a gold coin. Worth about US$700 then in November, it was about equal to the price of the book. But the coin has since appreciated, as Mr Bensimon notes with amusement. The book last year won a gold medal as the 'best book in finance/ investment/economics' at New York's annual independent publishers awards. Mr Bensimon's fundamental view is that most of the world - Asia in particular - is in for a 'prosperity-driven inflationary era' over the next few years, notwithstanding the jitters over the credit crisis. His long-term view, for instance, is that the Straits Times Index (STI) will hit 9,000 and the Hang Seng Index 100,000 by 2012; and gold will climb to US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. He has set up a fund to invest according to the themes of his book. One of his first investors is Stephen Riady of the Lippo Group. His forecasts may sound quite incredible, until you learn of his near-term calls on markets which have turned out uncannily right. Last October, for instance, he told an audience in Singapore that the STI would fall 15 per cent from its level of 3,900 then to 3,300 shortly. The index fell from 3,906 to 3,306 within six weeks of his call. In The Business Times in August, Executive Money quoted him as saying that the STI would fall to 2,800; the index was then at 3,300. It fell to a low of 2,866 in January. The principle behind Mr Bensimon's calls lies in the proportionalities and symmetries in markets, which he sees as functions of 'phi', also called the 'golden mean'. This is expressed in the number 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. As he sees it, these symmetries permeate markets, and this is evident in the scale of market rises and even in the pattern of retracements across time. His calls have gained a following among banks, traders, hedge funds and private individuals. The outcome of a forecast, he says, is not cast in stone but is based on probabilities. 'The power comes not from saying that markets will do this or that. It comes from recognising that different alternatives can unfold,' he says. 'The benefit is not to say the market might go up or down, that's not of value to anyone. The value comes from being able to say that if the market chooses this northward path, it will go this far and no more. If it takes the southward path, it will go this far to a target. 'My speciality is to provide clients with a magnitude of duration and time, of price and specific levels and dates . . . March does provide a broad turning point that crosses different markets, not just the STI or equities but across a spectrum.' He believes the STI, currently trading at the 3,077 level, could still face yet another downdraft. It needs to exceed 3,300, he says, to confirm that it is out of the woods. Until then, there is a 'distinct risk' that it could fall another 15 per cent to 2550, which will be a buying opportunity. 'In Singapore if we break the 2,850 level, the next level down is 2,550 which seems a little far and rather cheap. But these motions are driven by panic and over-extension on the downside. But I'd be happy to invest anywhere from 2,800 to 2,600 because at those levels, it's really very cheap.' He said: 'One of the benefits of looking at the very big picture history is that it provides a degree of comfort and confidence that when we are in a corrective mode, instead of being worried and panicking, we can be comfortable that we know what the rhythm is and can recognise the relationships. We know we'll get to the ultimate target of 8,800 or higher several years from now, and there are natural levels to re-enter the market.' His view is that Asian markets - Australia, Shanghai, Singapore and in particular, Hong Kong - will move in synch upwards. 'Asia will benefit from the huge fundamental growth and prosperity sweeping across the region, that is not in any way harmed by the slowdown in the US. Asia now has enough internal demand and intra-Asian trade and infrastructure and consumer spending that it has a life of its own.' He notes that historically, in past US recessions, the stock market has anticipated a recovery and rises well before the recession ends. 'There is no impediment to have markets bottom in March, and have them recover sharply even if a recession technically continues in the next few months.' His views on oil and gold are positive but not equally so. He expects oil to reach US$125 a barrel this year and to move sideways for two years. 'We're still en route to US$125, but the big story is that once we reach US$125, everyone will scream that we're on the way to US$200 and that's not what's going to happen. ' The catch, too, is that consumer prices will not be adjusted downwards during the consolidation period. 'The margins for products will be fabulous and will power the stock market to much higher levels because the reduction of the oil price will translate directly into the bottom line for corporates in the industrial and financial sectors, telecom and blue chips. They'll all be lifted by prosperity.' He is bullish on gold in the long term but expects some consolidation this year before it moves to US$1,030 an ounce in 2009, and eventually US$1,220 in 2010. But the most rapid rise is expected between 2011 and 2014 when he expects the price to hit US$2,600. |
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moneyface
Senior |
29-Feb-2008 19:39
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futures -111 |
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winsontkl
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 06:10
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Elf, will put off the call for now as indices is in the red, let the price fall further before buying at lelong price for call...with all the negative datas in US....can wait lah, don't like to hold over weekend....... thanks for sharing.... STI will brace for a fall similar to US and Europe.... Happy trading on the leap day.... |
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 05:27
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cyjjerry85
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 04:20
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From CNN Money: BREAKING NEWS: Crude oil surges $2.95 to settle at $102.59, setting another record, as traders hedge against falling dollar. More soon. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 01:13
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gold is up to 969. 
sti calls. sure, winstontkl. :) headsup first signal: when people are too afraid to buy. need to pick the calls with longer expiry dates though (think end april, or at least, end march). and sufficiently high volume. *hint hint* :P watch sti 2800. if that holds, it's strike. if not, 2,600. need to see daily charts. expect it to be a fast play, esp to buy. Take advantage of shortists and negative sentiment. (if you're up to it, may watch for puts on individual counters currently; although, i personally prefer to focus one thing at a time.) ok. i'd best be off to bed. not good to keep missing morning trading. haha. nites all! |
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winsontkl
Elite |
29-Feb-2008 00:29
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Dow testing 12500 soon... |
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