Latest Forum Topics / Biosensors | Post Reply |
Is Biosensors a good buy?
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investor
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05-Jul-2008 19:21
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Just saw a video in CRTonline.com, where Prof Eberhad Grube was interviewed on TCT Summit Asia 2008. He was asked what is his favourite DES. His answer was that he does not have a favourite one, but due to the long track record of Taxus and Cypher, these 2 feature more prominently. He also mentioned that in looking forward at the newer technologies that are out there, like Xience, although it is good, but the late 'catch up' effect after 2 years, is something that has to be looked into, as nobody knows the reason for it. He also mentions that the Bio-matrix looks to be quite well received due to its bio-degradable polymer. He likes the Devax DES very much (licensee of Biosensors), and thinks that it is the answer to the complicated bifurcated LMAD lesions. He also mentions about the XTNT DES, and how it is the solution to the long lesions that are out there. For info only. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Jul-2008 17:35
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concur with cashiertan that this is more of a trading counter. note that previous support of biosensors was 67c; has broken it, so the fall is potentially limitless from this pt. downtrend has not ended yet; i would not say it is even midway through. the bigger players appear to have gotten out at end May at ~74-76.5c. as trader88 (?) said though, it all depends on when they'll return to this counter, if they should. if they do tho, your upside is likely limited to 50% of whatever the lowest px is (ie, if it's 50c lowest, they'll ramp it to 75c). Consistent patterns from the chart. If they abandon it tho, you can expect to sit in slow recovery for the next bull in years to come, ala the other penny stocks. need to realise that current market sentiment is extremely bad, even with good news in, how many counters will rally? so really, what's happening to biosensors is normal, not extraordinary: bengster shouldn't be blamed just because he is providing information. Note: above views are strictly from a technical perspective. caveat applies. not vested. |
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bengster68
Master |
05-Jul-2008 17:15
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Very good precise breakdown by Mr Investor on BIG's forecast. This was the initial figure i got after BIG came out with their forecast. I heard Biomatrix is selling a few times above BIG's earlier forecast. Normally, direct sales pricing to hospitals is about US$2,000 per DES while sales to distributors is about US$1,200. For BIG's case, if we assume half of sales from distributors, half from BIG's direct sales force, average selling price is about US$1,600 per DES. If BIG is producing 10,000 DES per month, thats US$16m sales per month and US$48m sales per quarter. I believe BIG's earlier forecast is way too conservative and they didn't expect Biomatrix to be such a BIG hit. Now still hiring production personnel. After LEADERS results i think they seriously have to consider expanding their production plant. Also, BIG was forecasting JWMS's sales of US$40 to 50m (too low figure!!!). Im wondering if this is for their full 100% JWMS subsidiary sales. Strictly speaking in accounting terms, if JWMS is a 50% associate company, sales of JWMS cannot be apportioned 50% into BIG's group consolidated financial statement, only the net profit figure can be consolidated into group accounts. JWMS has a sales figure of US$33m and net profit of US$16m last year. China DES market is growing at about 80% compoundingly Y-O-Y. With top class CREATE clinical trial results, EXCEL DES is set to capture a larger slice of China DES market share %. Sales of EXCEL DES should be around US$55 to 60m for 2008 and i believe net profit for JWMS should be around US$30m for 2008. CREATE trial was conducted in 2007 and was a heavy R&D expenditure. I think in 2008 there will be very little R&D clinical trial expense for JWMS. |
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investor
Senior |
05-Jul-2008 16:14
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Although, I think that the Bio-matrix is a very good product, such that if I ever need a DES, this is the one that I would go for, it is better to be more on the conservative side,when it comes to revenue projection. Biosensor's mgmt has forecast revenue of US$115m for end mar 2009, and this includes the revenue from JWMS and its non-DES products. Without, JWMS, its total revenue forecast is approx US65-75M. As the non-DES revenue is approx US$30m, this implies that the mgmt is only projecting DES revenue of approx US$35-US$45m, ie about US$10m ave per qtr. I think that if they can achieve US$6-8m for Q109, I would be satisfied. I believe that Conors achieve approx US$10m per qtr, when they launch thie product. This revenue of US$6-8m does not include Terumo. Hopefully, Terumo can achieve between US$4-6mfor Q109, which would be very good indeed. On top of that, Biosensors can produce approx 10,000 DES per mth (stated in one of the conference call), and if each DES cost US1500, the max revenue obtainable is US15m. Not a call to buy/sell. | ||||
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bengster68
Master |
05-Jul-2008 14:47
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Last heard Biomatrix sales is a hugely above market expectations and selling faster than NOBORI although Terumo is more established and has more extensive network in Europe. Looks like BIG's newly employed 20 new direct sales force personnel are working very hard! Also, BIG has already established strong links with very capable distributors which were tested on their earlier Axxion DES. Recently BIG keep advertising for recruitment of manufacturing personnel, it gives us a strong clue that production scale need to be expanded urgently. Looks like Terumo is more concerned about their exclusive Japan market. I estimate BIG could be selling about US$30m worth of Biomatrix DES in Q1FY2009. After LEADERS trial, sales could be around US$50m per quarter (clinical result based sales/marketing program). As Biomatrix get more and more countries' clearance (China/Australia/Korea/etc) to start selling, Biomatrix sales will go only go up exponentially. <<<Boston Scientific would pitch itself as the only company to offer physicians a choice of two stents that are both "best in class" but deliver different drugs -- what Mr. Tobin referred to as "an unprecedented two-drug strategy.">>> Taxus is still best in class??? This is Jim Tobin guy is very thick-skin after so much evidence of Taxus' poor clinical trial performance. 2 drug DES strategy is because BSX know if they don't sell Promus (Xience), BSX's market share will drop drastically. |
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cwwan1
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04-Jul-2008 23:21
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anybody knows how the biomatrix sale is doing? The last i know is it is selling very well! | ||||
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cwwan1
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04-Jul-2008 23:18
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Abbott's Drug-Coated Stent Is Approved By SHIRLEY S. WANG (wsj) July 3, 2008; Page B4 Abbott Laboratories received regulatory approval for its Xience V drug-coated stent, which is expected to be the top seller in the roughly $2 billion U.S. market because it appears to be more effective than rival devices. Stents are tiny mesh scaffolds used to prop open diseased arteries, and coated ones release a medication that prevents the passageways from becoming reclogged by tissue buildup. Xience will compete primarily with Boston Scientific Corp.'s Taxus, which had $1 billion in domestic sales last year, and Johnson & Johnson's Cypher, which brought in $825 million in the U.S. "It's the only approved stent that, from the beginning, the clinical trials were set up to show superiority to another market-leading stent," said Rick Wise, an analyst at health-care investment bank Leerink Swann. The Food and Drug Administration's approval Wednesday also clears Boston Scientific to begin selling the Abbott-made stent under the name Promus, with Abbott receiving 40% of the revenue under a profit-sharing deal. Additionally, the approval triggers a $250 million payment to Boston Scientific from Abbott, per an agreement linked to their 2006 joint purchase of Guidant Corp., which originally developed Xience. The news was announced Wednesday after 4 p.m. composite trading in the U.S. markets. Abbott's shares ended the day up three cents to $54.24, while Boston Scientific rose 22 cents, or 1.8%, to $12.41 on the New York Stock Exchange. As part of the approval, the FDA required Abbott to conduct a postmarketing study for five years -- as it did when it approved Medtronic Inc.'s Endeavor stent earlier this year -- to track the long-term safety of the device. The Abbott Park, Ill., company said it has identified the clinical centers that will carry out the study of 5,000 patients and is prepared to begin enrollment within days. Abbott's marketing plan will emphasize that Xience evolved from the company's Vision stent, the top seller among bare-metal stents. Abbott believes doctors will find it helpful to offer patients a choice of identical stents with or without a drug coating, according to John Capek, executive vice president for medical products at Abbott. Some patients may not be suited to drug-eluting stents if they aren't willing to take the attendant anticlotting therapy. "Vision becomes an important part of the marketing strategy," Dr. Capek said. "It gives Xience a launching pad in the U.S." Boston Scientific, of Natick, Mass., said it intends to market both Promus and Taxus in an attempt to remain at the top of the niche. "Our basic approach is we want to be the leader in the coated-stent business, period," Boston Scientific Chief Executive Jim Tobin told analysts at a Goldman Sachs health-care conference last month. Leerink's Mr. Wise said Boston Scientific would pitch itself as the only company to offer physicians a choice of two stents that are both "best in class" but deliver different drugs -- what Mr. Tobin referred to as "an unprecedented two-drug strategy." But, Mr. Wise noted, "The complicated part is that Promus does carry a lower gross margin, because they have to pay Abbott. It's going to be a fascinating battle." Xience and Promus are already available in Europe. Promus has lagged behind Xience in sales in part because Promus hit the market months later. --Jon Kamp contributed to this article. |
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cashiertan
Elite |
04-Jul-2008 22:05
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from what i see, Biosensor is more TA counter rather than FA so far, Techie will earn more. The Only FA and TA counter i see is Wilmar. Follow TA to almost 100% perfect. | ||||
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bengster68
Master |
04-Jul-2008 15:50
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Trust the Prof Eberhard Grube's presentation. Spirit 2 Early stent thrombosis is 0% for both Xience and Taxus while late-thrombosis is 0.5% VS 1.3%. Spirit3 shows a 0.3% vs 0% for Xience and Taxus while late-thrombosis is 0.15% Vs 0%. Slide 19 is very important info to understand late-thrombosis. The process call "Endothelisation" is the regrowth of vessel cells called endothelial over the stent surface area not in contact against vessel wall. When there is poor endothelisation, the chances of late-thrombosis is much higher. Endothelisation reduces blood clots. That is why we must see the slides of Endothelisation to see how many % of regrowth over stent surface area to judge the chances of stents having late-thrombosis. I have seen before slides of Biomatrix endothlisation process is which is most impressive compared to all other DESs. Taxus and Cypher's endothelisation looks horrible to me. BMS normally has very good endothlial healing and that is why very little late-thrombosis problems. Also, remember Biomatrix's BiolimusA9 drug is only coated on the ablumenal surfaces only? Why? Because anti-restenosis drug are used to slow down aggressive cell regrowth on the vessel wall. If we coat the drugs on the other side (blood stream side), we are actually slowing down the endothelisation regrowth and cause blood-clots! P-A-E posted an article on BIG's patent on this technology: There is a US patent application 20050038505 filed in Sept 2004 and published in Feb 2005 (not granted yet), which I think was filed to rectify or add on to the United States Patent 6939376. Its claims include the following: 28. An endovascular stent for placement at a vascular injury site, for inhibiting restenosis at the site, comprising a radially expandable, tubular body formed of a lattice of connected filaments, each filament having outside, side, and inside support surfaces, and a drug-release layer containing a restenosis-inhibiting drug, said layer coating the outside surfaces, but not the inside surfaces, of said filaments. 29. The stent of claim 28, wherein said layer coats the outside and side surfaces of said filaments. 35. The stent of claim 28, wherein the inside surfaces of said stent body are coated with a second drug-release layer containing a second drug. Claim 35 appears to be an extra part covering drugs like antiplatelet drugs into the lumen. Yes, claim 28, which appears trivial has definately some great benefits..as what's reported. This abumenal patent looks very solid. Wonder if the other stent makers uses this technology as well? |
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PensionAlterEgo
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04-Jul-2008 11:48
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Check this two conflicting reports.. the article says "Under the new Dublin/Academic Research Consortium (ARC) definition of late-stent thrombosis (blood clotting events in stents), which was developed to eliminate variability in the definitions across various drug-eluting stent trials, the late stent thrombosis rate with xience V in the SPIRIT II trial out to one year was zero percent for xience V (0/220 patients treated with xience V) and 1.3 percent for TAXUS (1/76 patients)" Now, if you check http://www.healthgrabber.com/sessions/select-grube.pdf, on slide 24, there is 0.5% of late stent thrombosis (30 days to1 year). Taxus was reported as 1.3%. So who to believe?
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bengster68
Master |
04-Jul-2008 11:33
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Strictly speaking, Xience cannot be considered as a 2nd generation DES. This term was used as a marketing ploy to psychologically make the older DES obsolete. It is a durable polymer and limus drug was already used in 1st generation DES. Its just an newer version of 1st generation DES. Same for Endeavor. 2nd generation DES is generally refering to DESs using biodegradable polymer. When ABT or MDT publish their clinical results, they will sure hide some ugly data and only highlight the good ones. They will only give you selected info and continue to say their stent is superior, safe, lowest rate for this and that. Only DES experts who have access to the full detailed data can pin-point where are the possible weakness. |
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PensionAlterEgo
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04-Jul-2008 09:13
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On hind side, I think approval of Xience V by FDA the sooner (which happened recently) could be a blessing in disguise. JNJ will be even more agitated sooner rather than later for erosion of market share... And you know lah, what most forumers including myself are expecting after this.. ! I wonder if 2 year results for Xience V trial in Spirit 3 will be published later. I really hope they do. I am keen to know what the outcome will look like. The last time in Spirit 2, all the critical measurements like TLR & Binary restenosis, at first showed real superiority but eventually caught up with Taxus after 2 years. So I would like to see if the same pattern emerges. Then I will be really unconvinced by Xience V. |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
04-Jul-2008 09:11
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novena 33, The day when the BBs start to goreng BIL will come, after the price reaches certain level, which is unknown to us. Just keep on monitoring it. |
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novena_33
Veteran |
04-Jul-2008 09:00
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humm...i only can guess the local mkt is not ready for pharmaceutical co play........ and for u...u have such wide exposure to other mkt .... know what a CE and FDA approval can do to the company when they get it..... but some how this fellow don’t react in the similar manner…haiz…. I just feel that the BB did not do a gd job in here….. |
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bengster68
Master |
03-Jul-2008 22:10
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http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=8653016&src=finance&ch=4043681 Stent Wars Escalate! KNN ABT shares keep going up, BIG's shares after CE keep going down. WTF is the logic??? |
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Centaur
Veteran |
03-Jul-2008 14:11
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Alamak, Mr beng, no paragraphing a bit hard to read leh
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jackjames
Elite |
03-Jul-2008 14:05
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you really make me laugh until rolling on the floor....
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novena_33
Veteran |
03-Jul-2008 14:02
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yeah some TV there....
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q10activator
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03-Jul-2008 13:45
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Bleeding badly... Think it will get shorted down somemore... Many shortist in the market now. It doesn't matter what good news there is.. ppl are just trading the stocks based on technical records and ignoring any fundamental basis... |
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jackjames
Elite |
03-Jul-2008 12:53
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yeah, i feel pity for u, but it is good that u don fight back... because it will be like an endless cycle, ha ha.. hey, i got the biosensor annual book yesterday, haha..
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