| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
 Post Reply
|
|
NOL
|
|||||
|
Dividend_Warrior
Senior |
27-Jun-2013 18:59
Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Becoming penny stock soon....... | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 17:35
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
after they are rooted out then time to push up stock and enhanced stock portfolio value lol. Must always remember NOL is not for the fainted heart, it for the gutsy and heart attack prone players. Today big players pushed down ship from afternoon based on July GRI fear similar to what happen in march 2012 when they drive down NOL on doomday prediction of rate failure. All this rate erosion thing can be managed but industry leaders Maersk, MSC and CMA too busy trying to root out weaker carriers but now they into P3 alliance so I guess spot rate going to be relative tame after july. High chance all 3 might be planning layup of ships to protect peak season contract rate as they got no need to undercut each other as they already commit ships to the alliance next year. Well more heart attack sessions might be in the making, NOL investors had to be ready for it. Switch off stock monitoring TV/internet and forgot about stock till 2014 where container shipping industry prospect is better due to overcapacity easing, US/Europe economy recovering and conservative carriers behaviour due to alliance. Last 2 years of heart attacks over recession era price might be over soon , have hope and be happy. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Heero78
Member |
27-Jun-2013 17:26
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
dun think that there was a root out...look like some bad news coming out. I just guessing...
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
heisuke
Member |
27-Jun-2013 17:16
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
And what happens after they are rooted out?
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Heero78
Member |
27-Jun-2013 16:48
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
this share is a dead end. Vested so much and never see daylight anymore. Most likely really will issue right. sigh. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 15:18
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Today ship trading is funny, somebody is trying very hard to push down share price whenever it start to turn green. Hundred of lots sold just to suppress share price gain, similar situation seen throughout june selling in day and cover back after market close. that why I posted not to trade in june, got big players trying hard to root out retail players. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 10:49
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
nothing much as ship is expected to breakeven or minor loss this year unless ship can surprise on the upside. by the way sentimental reverse course today as investor flock back to stocks after the ugly revised US GDP from 2.4% to 1.8%, now expecting central bank to delay tapering to next year. US market recover as much as 170 and ended 149 up, today regional asia market all rebound 1% - 2%. Crazy market swing from extreme bearish to extreme bullish, shortist got caught shorthanded as usual in this kind of swing and had to cover their position before the week end as FM would be back in force in Jul. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Blastoff
Elite |
27-Jun-2013 07:39
|
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
What's the implication on NOL?
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
26-Jun-2013 22:31
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Take caution central banks are getting fed up with investors using cheap money to invest in safe asset, they want people to start investing in growth and trade. They would keep reminding market that easy money era going to end with better economy keep a check on US dollar strength. By having a strong US dollar and rising bond interest rate would keep money from safe asset, they are in fact going to force companies/consumers to spend. Now cannot put money in commodities like gold, oil due to strong US dollars, bonds also not safe as rate is rising and paper value dropping. enjoy the drama staged by world central banks to kill off rich people money. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
26-Jun-2013 22:16
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
US 1Q GDP revised downward from 2.4% to 1.8% and US market is rallying ?? Normally it should be the reverse but now it is like bad news = prolong easing = good news for market. Currently US market is up by 130pts. The correction mostly killed off lot of conservative investors who think it is safe to keep money in treasury bond only to wake up next morning to see bond price got destroyed by 10% and yield go up lol same go for folk buying defensive/ yield stock got their portfolio destroyed by 10% too. bernake want to force rich people to invest and spent money else central bank going to destroy their riches in whatever form it might be invested. Now u see lot of rich people prefer to hold US dollar as gold just got destroyed recently now reaching 1200 from 1600 a year ago, they would print more US dollars and destroyed their riches further very evil central bank policy no place is safe unless money is spent. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dippyboy
Member |
26-Jun-2013 06:26
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Yea, just like a reversal syndrome. End of the day i dont believe US can afford to withdraw all those liquidity, its easy to print but hard to withdraw. At best they will stop the printing press but the money will remain in the banks for many years even after its lent out. There will be no exit from QE, but a monetisation of their massive trillions of debt thru inflation. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
26-Jun-2013 00:37
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Currently investors are like drug addicts for QE, they don believe economy can stand by itself and need the central banks support infinity. Good economy news is bad news for them as it meant faster pull out of easy money by central banks. Need time for drug addicts to kick off the effect of 4 years of QE addiction, maybe another 1-2 months market would return back to normal let just wait. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
25-Jun-2013 09:46
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
OCBC research downgraded NOL to hold from outperformed but again this had proven that brokerage house is slow in making their case always wait till everyone had their cake and finish eating it then made the case. Today general market rebound hope it continue till week end, lot of carnage for the first 3 weeks of June. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
24-Jun-2013 20:20
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
We going back to square one before the whole QE3 started, STI most likely would tank below 3000 by this week and most of the blue chips still got like 10% more to drop. Ship price more or less this level since it basically did not move when the whole QE started. End of easy money funded money for dividend plays, now 10 years US bonds going to move up to the 3-4% range and it would destroy lot of bondholder principal value as bond price drop when interest go up. Imagine the big carnage it going to have when the actual interest rate on loan go up, lot of property investors going to have their hands burned due to too many loans they carrying, hope no US style housing recession occurs when fed reserve hike the rate. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
24-Jun-2013 17:29
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Market is doing self correction after this year bull run on defensive/yield play, might continue to see more downside to STI till June end. Luckily never go into market this time and watch lot of summer movies, don want to get heart attack when STI plunge 50+ on daily lol. When FM came back to market after June break, might see some life for ship then but might wait and see if the trading trend persist meaning high volume and moving in a bullish trend. By the way word of caution, don get into commodity/yield plays as the US dollar is getting stronger and commodities price get punished and bond got sold off interest spiking. If next week US job data confirm economy recovery is strengthening then US dollars would spike and cause more pain to commodities market. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dippyboy
Member |
22-Jun-2013 14:39
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Well , theres probably some intention to chop off the bad rotten part of the apple to save the good core. Sometimes, it cheaper to buy a new one instead of trying to repair old stuff. we can see that in tiger where the rights issue amounts to an entire LCC startup cost. Poor man buy twice. Another case is the monopolistic public transport.......it could be better if a framework is in place to foster competition and innovation like where buses is sublet from a national licensee and bids routes competitively. Much like the opennet model . As history shows, Private run companies will be leaner and much more efficient, especially important for sg , since it concerns its strategic advantage. The free market should be given its way to do things proper. Like starhub vs singtel. We need the starhub of shipping in sg. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
22-Jun-2013 12:54
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NOL is owned by Temasek and if strictly speaking it is a state owned company judging by the 67% holding it command. Possiblity of it running out of cash is very low as can always get bank loan through temasek guarantee. NOL had recently set up holding companies to separately control the liner and logistic division which is very weird as there seem to be no need for it unless management want to list liner/logistics business or the unlikely case of privatisation of the entire group. Temasek had tried to privatise NOL in 2006 at S$2.80 but fail to do so ending up with 67% from 30%, a second attempt to do it is very tempting given the current low share price, cheaper for temasek to eat up the whole company. Container shipping is vital to Singapore as we are 100% export dependant and need a strong national shipping lane to ensure good flows uninterrupted from protectism in region/world. NOL owned and used APL ( American President Line) for branding, cooperation between US and Singapore to promote free trade in asia so no need to be scare about group survival, can always get loans from US banks with Temasek guarantee. If a privatisation really occurs, it would be interesting to see the offer price as currently we are in a slow growth economy but recession level market price. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
dippyboy
Member |
22-Jun-2013 09:22
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Cost is one thing, most importantly topline is key to staying afloat. In july , maersk is gona hike rate big time and Bdi already hop to 1000 now. However, the overarching concern is protectionism in europe china trade dispute and that can kill any recovery. moreover this haze will slow shipping in malacca straits and thats a death sentence. Already it barely breaking even in profits and have no more assets to sell. Cashflow is going to be tough by aug sep due to payment tranch for new ships. Mega debt interest is a crushing burden it can barely afford. One more bigtime loss due to economic slowdown, it will die before it can even handle another bigger payment tranch in 2014. Then it no surprise to ask for Rights issue!!! to stop the bleeding . And if it continue bleeding then another high interest bond warrent issue like Olam then if shiiping still cant recover by 2014, its going the way of receivership like sg flyer or STXOSV. Basically ,common shareholders will get wiped out while senior secured lenders like banks will get whatever is leftover. Given the obvious dire fate , why dont current share holders sell out at Full NAV and throw the crushdebt burder to current buyers and start another shipping line by buying such distressed assets available globally at firesale prices .Then use cheap new debt to finance it. Then you could create an entire shipping line with a little equity alot a new debt and no risk of losing control to creditors in the immediate future insofar as the new debt is freshly financed for another 3-5 years where shipping is going up. Meanwhile the probable fate of existing shareholders will be receivership and they will be lucky to get back cents on a dollar. One way leads to heaven, the other is to hell . |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
22-Jun-2013 01:08
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
US dollar getting stronger and US 10 years treasury interest rate hike to 2.5% meaning more and more investors dumping bonds and holding dollars. Very strong dollar is very bad for commodity as it make it more expensive for non US hedge fund to speculate and they would dump commodities futures result in weak future price. Brent oil price just got trashed from 102.5 down to 100.2, if the downward trend persist very good for NOL since lower oil price = lower operating cost = better profit margin. Hoping oil would drop to 90-95 range by end of year would mean another 5% cost saving for NOL. Today big reversal played by STI -60 to -5 recovering from steep loss, maybe the selloff is completed but need a few more sessions of peace to confirm it. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Veteran |
21-Jun-2013 17:33
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
CIMB one of crappy research house that give lousy tip, I still remember that brokerage putting a buy call on NOL when majority of brokerage is giving a neutral outlook. To predict NOL future price movement just focus on economy data out of US and Europe as economy recovering in 2014 would boost Asia to US/Europe export which in turn boost earning and would override lot of poor rating by brokerage houses. Anyway brokerage house are often slow in rating company, they only do so when everyone had their share of cake and finish eating it. | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||