China COSCO chairman Ma Zehua that the company into the black this year with confidence.

He believes that the market cycle is likely to continue for some time, but the company is looking forward to next year will be better than this year, there will be some improvement, and pointed out that the shipping market recovery will lag compared to six months or longer macro.

He said that if the central launch the elimination of old boats and other policies, the industry can take advantage of some of these policies are able to adjust the structure. Urgent need to address the current industry is the market quickly recovered.

The recent global economic sentiment index continued to rise shipping since August 12 since the shipping market has been hailed as the barometer of the BDI (Baltic) all the way up yesterday, has reached 1628 points, refresh since last January has nearly 20 months, the highest for the downturn in the market has long been injected a stimulant.

Secondary market, the long silence shipping stocks recently changed the tide, the performance is very eye-catching. Data show that since September has SWS two shipping industry index has risen 15.90%. Specific look, in addition to 2 September fell 5.19%, the other six trading days average closing yang. 13 publicly traded shipping stocks, there are 10 stocks in this interval accumulated rise, which has five stocks rose more than 10%, respectively, CSCL, COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Steam Navigation, China Shipping Development and * ST ocean.

At present, the domestic economy showing signs of recovery, iron ore, coal and other resources, goods transport and gradually become active again, this time BDI rose is a harbinger of what long-term economic recovery in shipping, or just short-term rise? In addition, BDI index despite the sharp rebound, but the distance is still a far cry from 2400 breakeven point for shipping companies, BDI index rebounded What can bring much positive impact?

BDI bring shipping dawn: sail sea

BDI continued to rise, thanks to China's steel prices needed, triggered by the expanding demand for imported iron ore. Great wisdom transportation group senior editor Zhuqiong Hua said that the rise can be described as overwhelmed BDI Capesize vessels of the " solo" , it is understood that this year, the domestic steel prices continued to rise in July for the first time for many years the national steel enterprises' profitability " capacity gradually released, ore demand, and thus due to the large imports of iron ore, led capesize rise.

Publicly available data, Capesize four routes average rents have exceeded $ 25,000, compared with more than 5000 U.S. dollars in early June shot up by more than 4 times. In contrast, the other ship rose relatively small, handy-rents basically at the origin.

Ocean freight rates also led to the rise in coastal freight, while the decline in domestic coal is also a major coastal freight prices push hands. As of September 4, Bohai thermal coal price index (BSPI) has dropped to 540, a drop of 50 yuan three-month period, imports of coal has lost the price advantage, so a large number of domestic power plants buy domestic coal. The coastal coal freight rates generally go along, the low price of coal imports, import volume, the coastal market is a callback, anti then will flourish. Latest data show that coastal coal freight index closed at 931 points, up by 58 per cent, of which the mainstream routes Qinhuangdao to Shanghai, Guangzhou and coal freight rates were 41.4 yuan / ton, 46.8 yuan / ton, respectively, compared with the end of July rose 73%, 40%.

Demand is not now change: To the Yellow River ice Sechuan

BDI menacing face of rising, industry analysts are not optimistic about its medium-term trend. Shipping expert Chen Yi that because both demand and capacity are no major change, BDI index will only be a short-term rise in the shipping industry in the spring is also difficult to foresee. In fact, the " golden nine silver ten" is the domestic steel market, the traditional replenishment time, this time of year there will be a certain degree of tariff increases, although the timing of rising earlier this year, the situation is more rapid, but overall, they are just stage rise, unspeakable trend reversal, limited support for the BDI.

It is noteworthy that, the state attaches great importance to environmental protection at present, steel, electric power production capacity of enterprises will be inhibited release or both, then the demand for iron ore and coal will also decline. More critical is the key issue of excess capacity has not been resolved. China Port Network senior analyst Zheng Ping said, there are some capacity is in sealed condition, but with the rise in freight rates, this part of the capacity is sure to be released, when the immediate supply and demand balance is broken, the tariffs will again decline. Optimistic point of view, perhaps this wave of tariffs to maintain the upward trend in October, then I'm afraid to be cautious pending.

More than a short segment sky: ambition there

Back to the secondary market, the majority of institutions that led this round due to higher BDI shipping stocks rising trend difficult to sustain, much shorter sky became the industry consensus.

Galaxy Securities believes that the current round of the BDI rose by pulling funds face a higher risk, but there are some fundamental support. BDI likely to continue in the short term is pulled upward, or birth-related stocks trading opportunities.

Northeast Securities also said that the current domestic shipping industry in general is still oversupply, but the second half as the better economic situation at home and abroad, there may be a cyclical rebound, investors can seize trading opportunities ahead of the layout.

Specific to the stocks, China Merchants Securities relatively optimistic about the fundamentals bottomed out, plenty of cash flow of the investment ship * ST ocean as profitability, next year's operating trends are also worthy of attention attention is also recommended to benefit from the recovery of small boats COSCO Shipping. The CSDC delivered this year and the next year the capacity pressure, gross margin downside risk, should be treated with caution.