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Is Biosensors a good buy?

eastwest
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20-Jul-2008 17:40

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Dear Mr Investor and PensionAlterEgo,

It is very helpful to have you guys (and of course Mr Bengster) on board to give your views on Bio. I dare say that the comments on this stock rate as probably the most intelligent anywhere, and it is a great help to a layman investor like me to have you guys explain the technicalities of the medical trials.

May I ask you, from a purely objective viewpoint, IF Bio performs well in the Leaders' trial:

a.   do you believe that it is a matter of time before Bio is bought over ?

b.   If Bio is to stay independent, do you believe that at current price, this stock is undervalued?

I know that it may be difficult to answer these questions without resorting to caveats. But let us assume that :

a. the management is basically sound and intelligent.

b.   the clinical trials will be good.

c.   Bio will eventually capture 10 to 20% of world market share (excluding USA).

Lastly, may I ask you, what attracts you to BIo?

FYI, I am vested and I am always interested to hear what others think about this stock.

Thank you.

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eastwest
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20-Jul-2008 17:38

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Dear Mr Investor and PensionAlterEgo,

It is very helpful to have you guys (and of course Mr Bengster) on board to give your views on Bio. I dare say that the comments on this stock rate as probably the most intelligent anywhere, and it is a great help to a layman investor like me to have you guys explain the technicalities of the medical trials.

May I ask you, from a purely objective viewpoint, IF Bio performs well in the Leaders' trial:

a.   do you believe that it is a matter of trial before Bio is bought over ?

b.   If Bio is to stay independent, do you believe that at current price, this stock is undervalued?

I know that it may be difficult to answer these questions without resorting to caveats. But let us assume that :

a. the management is basically sound and intelligent.

b.   the clinical trials will be good.

c.   Bio will eventually capture 10 to 20% of world market share (excluding USA).

Lastly, may I ask you, what attracts you to BIo?

FYI, I am vested and I am always interested to hear what others think about this stock.

Thank you.

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investor
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20-Jul-2008 14:10

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As we look forward to the LEADERS trial results, there are certain technical aspects that one may have to consider.

Currently, most clinical trials that are geared to CE Mark approval or FDA approval will structure their trials to have certain criteria, eg discrete lesions, (ie isolated and only one lesion in vessel), max lesion length of NOT MORE than 2 -28mm, Lesion diameter of > 2.5 or 2.75,etc and many other limitations.

Also, in most trials, they may not accept patients with more than 2 lesions, have undergone PCI beore, etc.

In the Xience Spirit III, average lesion length is 14.7, and in the Endeavor IV, the ave length is 13.4, with diameter 2.7.

THe point is that NOT ALL clinical trials are created EQUAL. When the custom II results were announced, the MACE rate of 9% were compared unfavourably against Xience during TCT2007, with maybe mace rate of 5 % (If my memory serves me right), when the CUSTOM II patients have lesion lengths of even more than 50 mm! and very small lesion diameters of 2.5 or so.

In fact, there is no device right now that can be compared against the XTENT device, such that their clinical trial is the only one, where it is considered a REGISTRY, as they have no COMPARABLE device, to compare to !

A similar registry using the TAXUS stent for long lesions (and even their lesion lengths fall short of the CUSTOM II and III) show mace rates of 15 % or more !

SO, to put it in perspective, the LEADERS trial is an 'ALL-COMERS' trial (They call it REAL WORLD patients), where there is NO LIMITATION on the number of treated lesions, vessels or length, and the RESULTS of the LEADERS trial may have to be viewed differently AND SHOULD NOT be compared to other Endeavor and Xience trial.

Also, the Leaders trial is using a new version of the current Bio-matrix S-stent), without the Parylene-C primer, and the results may or may not be better than the earlier STEALTH trial. However, personally, I think that the bio-degradable polymer and the Biolimus drug will probably play a greater role in determining the clinical outcome.

And Biosensors clinical staff must be very confident to design such a daring trial.

FOr info. - Not a call to buy/sell

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PensionAlterEgo
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19-Jul-2008 20:48

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I agree that BIG must be quite confident with the endothelization results or else it will make no sense to put it under the BIG's sponsored session.

Plus, I think endothelization just needs about 4 weeks in biomatrix's case. These guys must have already got the tomography readings at the 4-week period when they presented in EuroPCR. If Biomatrix does what it says, then the 4-week scans should have revealed positive results. I guess they would have to follow up scanning for the Cypher patients if it does not heal at 4 weeks and perhaps carry on at later intervals to see the progress of the endothelization for Cypher.

investor ( Date: 19-Jul-2008 19:26) Posted:

The last Euro PCR 2008 conference has Terumo emphasizing on the endothelial functions of the Nobori Stent, as well as Biosensors looking at a sub-study on endothelialisation using OCT (Opitcal Coherence Tomography), the results which will be published in TCT 2008 (Oct).

This is a blinded study (I think about 45 patients out of the Leaders Trial), meaning that the people do the analysing will not know if it is a Cyper Stent or a Bio-matrix Stent.

OCT is a relatively new techmology (using Light), and it can show in very great detail the healing process after stenting.

Biosensors must be very confident of the results in order to do this sub-study.

According to Jonathan Hill, the person who spoke on this OCT sub-study, in EUROPCR 2008, the results of the LEADERS trial will be released during ESC 2008 (starting aug 30), and the results of the OCT sub-study will be released during TCT 2008 (Oct)

For info.

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investor
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19-Jul-2008 19:26

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bengster68
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19-Jul-2008 15:36

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I think over the next few quarters JNJ's USA market will be hit very badly by Xience/Promus. Easily drop about 20% per quarter. In Europe, Asia (China), JNJ's market share will be taken away by BIG's Biomatrix and EXCEL DES. JNJ's overseas market share will drop as well. By end 2009, JNJ's leading position in Japan market will be toppled over by Terumo's Nobori DES. Currently JNJ has global market share of 34%. I believe by end 2008, JNJ could be left with 25% global market share (Xience FDA approval). By end 2009, 15% global market share left (Nobori Japan approval and further loss of market share in USA because of Xience. Europe and Asia loss of market share caused by Biomatrix and Excel). Most analysts predict that by end 2010, JNJ will have below 10% global market share. From hero to zero.........

I believe JNJ is a very forward looking MNC and look at things 3 years ahead. They will see how Cordis will be 3 years later if they acquire BIG. DES market is growing back. USA market is growing back again at 18% over the last 6 months. Asia market is growing exponentially.

7 top key executives in Cordis has been sacked by JNJ HQ for their Conor takeover mistake. The new Cordis Chairman Seth Fisher will not stand there look like a fool, seeing DES market share growing back strongly and JNJ's DES sales sliding by around 15 to 20% every quarter. Seth Fisher is under a lot of pressure to perform in Cordis and turn things aroound. DES was the major revenue source for Cordis but now contributes below 50% and sliding very fast. Even with all the TV and other form of media advertisements Cordis is doing now, their sales just slide while the DES market is actually growing very strongly. Cordis was the DES leader but its clearly going to become the most insignificant player.

JNJ normally like to acquire companies with strategic match and "firing at all cyclinders". But most importantly, Cordis need something of top class IPs, patents and best set of clinical results to win back market share, esp IPs that can that can beat Endeavor and Xience convincingly in clinical trials. BIG has CE approval and buying over BIG means immediate Biomatrix sales contributions from many Europe and Asian countries. As Biomatrix get more and more country clearance to sell, sales can only increase exponentially looking forward. JWMS is already performing very well and will be number 2 player in China this year. If BIG is under JNJ's group, biomatrix sales will be 3 times better than what BIG can do independently. This is the synergy of top class clinical results backed by strong financial muscle, branding, marketing, extensive sales network and good sales connections. JNJ has the connections to settle USA FDA problems and financial muscle to start massive FDA clinical trials. Im confident within 3 years they should be back into the leading position if they buy over BIG. Biomatrix will be touted the next global market leader under JNJ, plus a clear pipeline of newer generation DES like Biomatrix-Bioflex, Biomatrix-Freedom, BiolimsA9 ABSORB DES, etc.

If BIG's LEADERS results are good, I believe Seth Fisher will immediately make a proposal to JNJ HQ fund the takeover of BIG and start negotiations to buy over BIG. Their US$1.4B write-off is already history and many heads have rolled. JNJ is a US$200B market cap company and can easily absorb such financial write-off of Conor acquisition. The most serious damage of Conor's bad acquisition mistake is JNJ losing DES market share. Fear of losing market share is precislely the main reason why JNJ bought up Conor in the first place. Losing so much market share quarter after quarter while the industry sales is actually growing strongly quarter after quarter is a very terrible position to be in. Quiting this industry altogether is never an option because JNJ has experienced making multi-billions from DES industry just years ago. Cordis is in dire situation but actually the solution for them is a very simple one. I think Fisher know very well that without M&A with another proven and better stent developer, there is no hope for Cordis' survive in the DES market. I don't think JNJ will just quit the DES market and leave it for good. They were the number one and they will try get back this position. JNJ is very used to buying over smaller companies for strategic reasons and buying over BIG is just another M&A deal which MNCs normally do to dominant in their industry. I seriously think JNJ is the main M&A contender and will make a move soon if LEADERS results are good. Ironically, LEADERS results is about Biomatrix Vs Cypher so LEADERS results will prove to JNJ that their stent is really obsolete.

bengster68 ( Date: 16-Jul-2008 22:26) Posted:

Use of Coated Stents on the Rise

By Keith J. Winstein

Word Count: 514 | Companies Featured in This Article: Boston Scientific, Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic

Drug-coated heart stents, whose U.S. sales were hard hit over safety concerns in the past two years, appear to be mounting a comeback.

In June, 73% of stent procedures in the U.S. used a coated stent, according to the Goodroe Data Warehouse unit of VHA Inc., of Irving, Texas, based on a survey of 60 U.S. hospitals. That is up from 62% in December -- which was the lowest level in several years -- and puts coated stents' popularity at levels not seen since February 2007, when a scientific firestorm raged over the devices' safety.

***The DES pick up rate in USA market is much faster than what i expected just a few days ago. Hit 73% in June and this is not considering Xience's entry into USA market. I think I may have to bring forward my 80% penetration rate earlier from end 2009 to even before end 2008. Xience is enjoying so much rave now and this should help to bring back more patients using DES. March 2008 figure was 66.9%. June figure was 73%. Thats an increase of 9.1% in just 3 months!!! Very strong pick up in DES sales in USA!!! Too bad JNJ doesn't have a newer and better DES to ride on the increase in demand for DES. Perhaps this should make them ponder again on acquiring another stent developer to become global DES market leader again. Cordis' new Group President Seth Fisher has a totally wrong prediction on DES market demand. 1% per annum???

bengster68 ( Date: 14-Jul-2008 11:06) Posted:

We can see that the recent resurging demand of DES could be due to the reduced impact of blood clot scare that the media has overplayed since Barcelona May 2006. DES players fought back with trials claiming DES is actually better than BMS. It is silly to revert back to using BMS. Recent pick up of DES use in USA market (up by almost 10% in 4 months) is most likely due to Endeavor's FDA approval. I expect to see even stronger pick up in DES demand over the whole of 2008 and 2009, possibly around 80% (demand up by another 15%) by end of 2008 because of Xience's recent FDA approval. Xience and Endeavor are touted to be safer than older generation DES like Cypher and Taxus and should rekindle the demand for DES. There should be a strong resurgence of using these 2 newly approved DES instead of BMS and older DESs over the next few years.

JNJ's new Cordis Group President Seth Fisher (took over Rick Anderson... i heard he kena sacked by JNJ HQ) said earlier this year that DES demand will growing at 1% a year at best. I think Seth Fisher can eat his own words now. Over the past 4 months the USA market for DES has turned upwards strongly at almost 10% growth and Asia DES market is experiencing huge exponential growth. He could be down playing JNJ's recent poor DES performance and recent Conor takeover misadventure in stent business. He could also be calling a bluff signal to BIG that JNJ is not really interested in stent business but in fact they are very desperate for BIG. Life is always a like Hollywood in USA. JNJ already made billions from DESs and was once the DES king. I don't think JNJ will allow their stent division to fall from formerly The Number One DES Player to zero. DES is still a highly lucrative medical product with current yearly global sales of US$5.4B and now growing back strongly again. How can JNJ afford to ignore this large market

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louis_leecs
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18-Jul-2008 01:31

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Yells: "half cash"

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oil price drop again,,,,,,,,,dow jones strong railly for second day,,,,,,,,wait for wat,,,,,,,buy ur limited,,,,,,,,,buy biosensor,,,,,,,,,,60cts akan datang,,,,,,,,,,,,,,all stock going to chiong liao,,,,,,,,,,,buy s share also,,,,,,,,im in again

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louis_leecs
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17-Jul-2008 23:36

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someone collect 495cts q steady everyday,,,,,,,,,,,,,patience will get reward

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ROI25per
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17-Jul-2008 21:25

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Biosensors International Group Ltd.

Public Access

Return to DWA Home Page
B20-SG (07/16/2008) 0.485 Down 0.010
STRAITS-SG RS = Sell, 07/08/2008; col=Os
Trend Chart Broke a Double Bottom on 07/01/2008

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bengster68
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17-Jul-2008 20:42

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When the 2nd JWMS deal was proposed in Jan 2008, BIG said that they expect the deal to be "completed" in Oct 2008. I think the term "completion" includes issuing the new shares to WeiGao and duly registered with SGX.

JustForFun ( Date: 17-Jul-2008 19:03) Posted:

Should have news soon....approvals from Biosensors, Weigao and all governmental/regulatory authorities have to be obtained by 10am on 31/07/08 unless there is any delay. You can read from the circular pg12/13.

Centaur ( Date: 17-Jul-2008 16:45) Posted:

By the way, does anyone knows whether when the JWMS deal will be through? Approx need to wait for how long? BIG only mention about expressed confidence that deal will pull through but give no indication when that'll be.

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JustForFun
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17-Jul-2008 19:03

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Centaur ( Date: 17-Jul-2008 16:45) Posted:

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trader88.sg
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17-Jul-2008 18:10

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Brother bengster68,

ic. I really hope THAT DAY will come. I will leave it to market forces in the meantime until the bullish signs appear.

All the best to you and those in the FA bullish camp. Smiley

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bengster68
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17-Jul-2008 17:33

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Mr Investor is refering to FA bearish camp views and not TA school. The view is that Biosensors is a loss-making company, with poor fundamentals, low NTA, not worth the current price, at best having a product that is fighting against the big boys.

I know THAT DAY will come. Just a matter of time.

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trader88.sg
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17-Jul-2008 17:22

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Brother bengster68,

Those in the bearish camp are TA practitioners, who hack care about the fundamental side of the company. One day when Mr Market decides to buy the fundamental values of BIG, if THAT DAY arrives, TA practitioners will join the bullish camp, aka FA practitioners and help push the price higher.

THAT DAY will come. THAT DAY will come.

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Centaur
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17-Jul-2008 16:45

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bengster68
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17-Jul-2008 16:04

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The bearish (shorting) camp don't understand what is the meaning of pre-earnings company able to finally "commercialise flagship product", dont understand what is the significance of licensing for pre-earnings company, don't understand that even if a DES company spend US$1B on R&D they may not achieve what BIG has achieved clinically. They also will not understand why Abbott can spend US$4.1B to buy just an R&D program (Xience platform). They obviously ignore all the intangible assets of this company. To focus on BIG's NTA and previous losses for a pre-earnings company is one of the most bird valuation method at this moment. I can safely say that this company has definitely turned-around and pre-earnings days are confirm over. From FY2009 onwards, you will never see any more losses but exponential profit growth. This is a standard life path of small biomed companies. Of course if CE has been approved 2 years ago, BIG would have turned around 2 years ago. Allow me to rank BIG's biggest assets in order:

1. Proprietary IPs and patents

2. Top class clinical results

3. CE Mark

4. China JWMS

5. Existing licensing deals (can be detriment for takeover valuation)

A rival DES company's CEO recently told someone that he has great respect for BIG because of item 1 and 2. These are the intangibles all the main DES players wish they had. Item 1 and 2 are the cutting edge advantage, top priority factor needed to become the next DES market leader and this is the most difficult part to achieve.

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investor
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17-Jul-2008 14:21

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The last 2-3 weeks has seen the great Biosensors debate. On one side is the bearish camp, the view is that Biosensors is a loss-making company, with poor fundamentals, low NTA, not worth the current price, at best having a product that is fighting against the big boys. On the bullish camp, the view is that it is on the verge of becoming very profitable, with a best-in-class product that will whipped the competition out there, having proprietary technology that will reap it hundreds of millions of $, having lucrative licensees fees, conquering Asia (especially China), and a potential takeover target. Interesting debate - lets see in the next 3-6 mths.

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allright
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17-Jul-2008 12:09

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hahaha how true. Er I do hope you guys attend the AGM. We need you all to ask relevant questions

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trader88.sg
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17-Jul-2008 10:57

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Anal-yst talk mah.

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bengster68
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17-Jul-2008 10:43

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I think CS talk-cock. Recent slide in share price is confirm due to global market selldown and margin call dumping, not about China JWMS issue. BIG already said WeiGao and BIG remain very positive on China approving JWMS deal.

More cautious on mid-term Biomatrix sales and cut FY10 and FY11 earnings but expect positive LEADERS results? This guy is talking nonsense. If LEADERS results is positive sales of Biomatrix's sales will shoot up and earnings forecast should be revised up, not down. I think they should revise upwards FY09, FY10 and FY11 if LEADERS results are positive, but now he is downgrading earnings but believe LEADERS results should be positive. He don't know DES demand has been picking up? Wait and see next month's Q1 results. If biomatrix sales positive, CS better do a double revision upwards.

allright ( Date: 17-Jul-2008 09:31) Posted:

NextVIEW Real-time News

DJ MARKET TALK: CS Cuts Biosensors Target, Keeps Outperform (2008/07/17 09:06AM)

0106 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse cuts Biosensors (B20.SG) target price to S$0.90 from S$1.10; maintains Outperform rating. Broker puts recent share price underperformance down to worries Chinese government likely to block Shandong Weigao''s sale of 50% stake in JW Medical to Biosensors. Says, "we believe the market may have overreacted;" potential rejection of deal should not affect estimates, which assume Biosensors'' ownership of JW Medical stays at current 50% level. Adds, launch of company''s flagship Biomatrix drug-eluting stent should be on track even without Weigao deal. But turns more cautious on near-term ramp up of Biomatrix sales in Europe, Asia. Cuts FY10, FY11 earnings estimates by 65%, 53%, respectively, which leads to lower target price. Maintains positive rating; says positive trial results may serve as near-term catalyst for share price. Shares closed down 2.0% at S$0.485 yesterday. (KIG)

 
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150; 
MarketTalk@dowjones.com

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