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NOL
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sgng123
Veteran |
10-Jul-2013 01:23
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More rooting out maybe but we are near 2Q result on August 7, small retail investors freaking out by bad articles on newspaper. Tactic by big players to edge out smaller players, once they gather enough shares share would recover and move up. US economy is getting stronger and stronger by the day, the supposing 2Q spring weakness on jobs turns out to be better than expected such that Fed reserve decide to pull back QE3 in fear of over heating economy lol. US spending cut would end in Sep 13 and growth would rebound strongly after that with sources saying the spending cuts + tax increase robbed US economy of 1.75% GDP this year. No trading till 4Q for this ship cos the risk is too high for little profit. For NOL profitability just need strong demand to pick up later this year, spot rate increase do nothing for profit without strong demand to fill the spaces. However watch out for 1 time event for day trading when the Maersk, MSC and CMA announced capacity withdrawn from US/Europe trade lane to justify P3 ships commitment in 2Q14. No more rate wars is for sure for this year so don worry too much about spot rate. | ||||
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Dividend_Warrior
Senior |
09-Jul-2013 23:36
Yells: "I am getting $1100 per month in dividends :)" |
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Yes. More rooting out to be done......
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heisuke
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09-Jul-2013 22:42
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NOL has been down for quite sometime. Still got more retail investors to root out?
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sgng123
Veteran |
09-Jul-2013 11:54
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Today ship got attacked by Chinese newspaper over 2Q result and sellers came and sold down stocks even though Asian market is recovering from yesterday selloff. This is life when economy is good they made lot of buy calls but when economy is uncertain lot of sell calls scaring retail investors into selling. I still remember in 2010 there is a big buy call on NOL before the Global Financial Crisis occurs, typical of buying low selling high strategy by hedge funds. | ||||
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sgng123
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08-Jul-2013 15:12
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Asia markets sucks hot money bailout continue. Now money is flowing out of asia and back to US/Europe where economies would recover in 2014. Good economy data out of US = bad news for asia markets prepare for red ink ... market is not performing normally still need time to flush out hot money then can return to normal. Advise is don do anything till this correction is over most likely would end in 4Q13 so for now enjoy ur NDP holiday and GST vouchers money. | ||||
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sgng123
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07-Jul-2013 23:56
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NOL liner arm APL business is mostly service contract with major retailers, to return to profit they need to buck up on ship load factor and forget about growth. High ship load factor = less ships used = less oil = profit. Spot freight rate movement not going to affect NOL profitability but low demand = low load factor = loss due to less revenue. Service contract is all fixed rate and it mostly include a no increase clause less for peak season surcharge, average rate in nol difference from quarter to quarter due to different load factor experienced as a result of more/less demand. Goal is get to that sweet spot where load factor can maintain in a profitable range all year round. Reason why NOL join G6 to spare managers of trying to gauge where is the sweet spot for utilisation for ships. But again nothing is guaranteed, all would be revealed in 2Q result out in August 7, Make or break for army col cost cutting measure enacted last year. Cos if still make loss after cost cutting then col ng ass would be toasted by temasek high level. | ||||
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dippyboy
Member |
03-Jul-2013 20:16
Yells: "Plsdoyourownhomework.Personalopinion,Disclaimerapplies." |
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One thing to watch out for is freight rate but dont forget volume. Revenue is price x demand. They can collude to jack up rates but the volume will got to be based on demand.And with china europe starting a all out trade war and US europe possible cancelling their FTAs and china india slowing down so much in Se asia , do you think that global trade will pick up in volume. Fat chance, in fact many smaller shipping coy will be cleanse by 2014 before a slow recover can take place not before the world get their act together after learning their lesson from trade surplus destruction in a global trade war. The global trade got to improve first before all those massive ships coming on stream can be utilized . |
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Octavia
Elite |
03-Jul-2013 11:53
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Detusche expect an operating loss for the coming qtr. 2Q results unlikely to be much better than 1Q core net loss of US$121m which is due to be announced after market on 7 Aug. Overall container shipping rates continued to be lackluster in 2Q. While Transpacific rates were stable, Asia- Europe rates declined on the back of weak demand and excessive supply. The Shanghai Containerization Freight Composite Index (SCFI) was 1,033 in 2Q on average versus 1,180 in 1Q. The Asia-Europe portion of the index was down 38% in 2Q versus 1Q. NOL is currently trading at 0.9x 2013E P/B, which in house view is not attractive. Hence comfortable with Hold recommendation and $1.14 TP. In regional container shipping, China Shipping Container Lines (Buy, HK$2.03) and Orient Overseas International (Buy, HK$50.10) both look more compelling with 2013E P/B valuations at 0.7x and 0.9x respectively. House have Buy recommendations on both CSCL and OOIL. |
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sgng123
Veteran |
30-Jun-2013 00:39
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Just to share info about the P3 alliance from sources. Currently Maersk , MSC and CMA together control about 56% of North Europe trade, 46% of South Europe trade and 29% of transpacific trade. Can imagine the impact of them forming an alliance when they stopped doing rate war, spot rate would shoot over the roof to keep major retailers within service contract where the rate is more stable and lower than spot rate. NOL share gain a lot when announcement made almost jump 10% in 2 days but later got hit by fed reserve crap of tapering and give up all the gain. P3 members try to calm shippers that capacity would not be withdrawn from trade route but in fact they might be planning to idle/lay up excess capacity from this year new build ships, neutralising the impact of overcapacity maybe in 4Q13 or 1Q14. If demand pick up next year due to better economy then we should see some fat profit from carriers due to conservative behaviour of carriers not fighting for market share. I was quite amazed ship share price did not take off after this announcement, BB are out in June so no one got the muscles to pull the shot. Hope next week better share performance for ship. |
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Tomique
Master |
29-Jun-2013 19:07
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Not surprising to see all my shipping stocks rose by 10% to 15% last night. My Navios was up, Starbulk was up and Dryships was up. Good for bulk carriers and marine stocks investors. Congrats!! |
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sgng123
Veteran |
29-Jun-2013 10:48
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Asia - Europe spot freight rate rocket 175% about US900 to level seen in 1Q. This prove my point all there spot rate movement is highly dependent on carriers behaviour. With Maersk, MSC and CMA top 3 leaders all joining force to force P3, rate erosion in Q3 might slow down, in fact big GRI in the range of 500-800 might be in the pipeline for Q3. A repeat of last year GRI run but not going to give a big boost to ship earning as service contract most likely remain flat unless peak season surcharge pop in or management decide to ditch growth for profit by cutting capacity and putting very high load factor on ships deployed. The drastic increase in spot rate only benefit carriers who had a very big share of their revenue in spot market. To make money in tough economy environment is to cut capacity drastically and improve utilisation rate of vessel, luckily ship got lot of charter ships returned to owners this year might see a good drop in operation cost and half of new builds arrival is postponed to next year. The fat reward would come in 2014 due to improved US/Europe economy, easing of overcapacity and more conservative behaviour of carriers due to P3 formation, got another 6 more months to go. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
28-Jun-2013 15:46
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Those betting on rate failure now must be panic and start to cover their short position fast before every shortist rush for exit. I quite sick of the whole spot rate punting as it is not reflecting market condition, it is more of individual carriers behaviours. Noone undercut/increase market share = GRI 100% success rate, undercutting = spot rate go down the deep hole. | ||||
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sgng123
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28-Jun-2013 15:39
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For those interested in spot rate movement, SCFI just surged by 25% rising 205 meaning 80% of the GRI might just had been achieved. Now wait to see if rate can hold and carriers cut capacity to justify for future GRIs in Aug and Sep to jack up the spot rate market for peak season. This is another of the kelong issue where carriers ganged up and do a show. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
28-Jun-2013 14:08
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endure and stay cool. rooting up of weak players still ongoing. Today similar scenario playing out, ship want to go higher but again been sold down by big players in the afternoon, luckily today is Friday last day of week most likely would see some selling covering later. As long US/Europe economy outlook is getting better and better, then no need to panic and cut losses for NOL investors. Spot rate erosion after July GRI should slow down due to less competitive bidding by the top 3 rivals, hoping for more capacity withdrawal like what happen in massive march 2012 GRI then bombard the market with Aug, Sep with GRI 500. | ||||
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CSH123
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28-Jun-2013 13:28
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mkt is now severely injured by the fools at pboc and sse. nd time recover from the severe injury | ||||
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sgng123
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28-Jun-2013 01:52
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The spot freight rate reported in SCFI is even more kelong as the forwarder aka middleman get their spot rate quote from carriers. Basically SCFI, WCI pricing for containers is all controlled by various carriers, if carriers maintain discipline and no one undercut/fight for market share, the spot rate might actually go up lol. Now the 3 strongest carriers decided to gang up and this might reduce market undercutting to gain market share, now need to see what they going to do with excess capacity resulting from P3 formation next year. From source currently 300+ ships are deployed by the 3 carriers in the Europe/transpacific/transatlantic trade, 255 ships committed in P3 so got like 40+ ships left behind hope they idle it and return industry to profit. | ||||
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CSH123
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27-Jun-2013 23:24
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its the same concept as properties. push up all the prices of outskirts. city or city fringes will naturally go up. same goes for stocks.
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CSH123
Member |
27-Jun-2013 22:47
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Look at the PE and p/b of the pennies! though its crap, DBS still recommends! example? yoma? no nd to mention the rest..its absurd!
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sgng123
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27-Jun-2013 22:28
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economy data out of US beat estimate and currently dow jones up by another 130 points. This puzzles me why today ship share price got hit suddenly after 2.30pm, dangerous time out there in Singapore market as STI give up almost all gain result only in 13 point gain compare to +40 point in morning. Our market underperform again when everyone rally we just move a bit but when a correction come we down the most. | ||||
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sgng123
Veteran |
27-Jun-2013 20:30
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Don worry too much, currently this year is very tough for container industry lot of new ships coming and freight rate going nowhere. Next year would be better when peace descend on container industry with less undercutting and few new deliveries. If US economy recover strongly later in 2H 2013, would point to better cargo demand in 2014. In short just treat this year like 2009 and next year like 2010 lol. | ||||
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