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Container ships charterer with 170+ years history
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bh704428
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 23:48
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just for casual reference, last time they wrote tp $1.22 but price fallen greatly since then. Now the same hse put tp 29 cts, so perhaps......
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oinkoink1999
Senior |
29-Apr-2009 23:46
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when broking hse ask u to sell..it may be a buy call..if u really sell who knows they might be the ones to pick up yr lots? take it with a pinch of salt...i only trust 50% of what they report... JMO.. cheers~ |
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fruitty
Senior |
29-Apr-2009 23:17
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Could something be wrong? Counter keep getting selldown by fund house and trading volume larger than FSL. |
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Alligator
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 23:04
Yells: "learning from past " |
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DBSV report In the doldrums At a Glance • Lowered DPU payout to base distribution level of 2.14 UScts (down 5% qoq) • No headway yet on financing for the four 13,100 TEU Maersk vessels due for delivery next year • In talks with lenders for waiver of debt covenants • Liquidity challenges next year with impending bullet loan repayment in April’10 • Maintain HOLD with a reduced TP of S$0.39 Profit stronger than expected. While revenue of US$32.5m (up 10% qoq) was in line with expectations, net profit surged 54% qoq to US$11m. This was largely on the back of lower-than-expected interest expenses and the lack of transaction fees. Distributable cash flows increased 8% qoq to US$16.8m. The DPU payout of 2.14UScts corresponds to only 54% of available cash. But even existing credit facilities may shrink. With sharp contractions in asset prices, lenders may choose to restrict the amount to be drawn down from available facilities. This is on top of the Trust’s inability to secure funding for the US$711m of committed capex due next year. At worst, the Trust may have to sell the Maersk vessels (with charter) to a 3rd party at a sizeable haircut. Are more DPU cuts on the way? The Trust would need to repay about US$158m of loans next year, including a US$130m tranche in April’10. The possible redelivery of the Maersk Djibouti in Feb’2010 implies added revenue pressure. The 5% cut in DPU may, thus, be no more than a signal, given the uncertainties. However, at current valuations, even a 50% cut in DPU going forward would imply a FY09 yield of more than 22%. We conservatively impute a 20% cut in DPU for the next 3 quarters. Maintain HOLD, TP cut to S$0.39. |
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Alligator
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 23:00
Yells: "learning from past " |
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ok read OCBC report calling to SELL Rickmers Maritime: Downgrade to SELL By Meenal Kumar Mon, 27 Apr 2009, 09:07:13 SGT Rickmers Maritime (RMT)’s 1Q results were in line with expectations, with revenue up 46% YoY and 10.1% QoQ to US$32.5m. DPU fell 4.9% QoQ to 2.14 US cents and we think it may be at further risk for cuts, or frozen entirely, from 2Q09 on. The manager is asking lenders for waivers on loan-to-value covenants. RMT is committed to buy three Hanjin vessels for US$207m over the next nine months. It may not be able to fully draw down the committed loan facilities due to falling market values. Additionally, we estimate that RMT needs to repay up to US$154m in loans next year. RMT is also contracted to buy four Maersk vessels, due 2010, at US$711.6m. No financing has been arranged so far. As of 31st March, RMT is geared at (in our view, unsustainable) 2.2x debt-to-equity. The committed acquisitions leverage up the risk. Other high risk events include counterparty default or a loan prepayment call. Downgrade to SELL with S$0.29 fair value. DPU falls. Rickmers Maritime (RMT)’s 1Q results were as expected, but DPU fell 4.9% QoQ to 2.14 US cents. RMT was mandated to pay out 2.14 US cents to all common units - otherwise distributions to sponsor-owned subordinated units were diverted to make up the difference. This subordination period ended 1st April. In light of the challenges listed below, we think a fiscally responsible Board could cut or freeze distributions entirely from 2Q09 onwards. Likely redelivery in Feb 2010. Charter terms for Maersk Djibouti allow Maersk to trigger an early termination of the lease after Feb 2010. The vessel is currently earning US$22,708/day. The manager says market rates will likely be in the “high four digits”. We have adjusted our earnings estimates accordingly. Next charter expiry is in 2013. Gearing now 2.2x. As of 31st March, RMT is geared at 2.2x debt-to-equity, up from the 1.5x registered a quarter ago. The manager is currently in negotiations with its lenders, seeking waivers on loan-to-value covenants. If successful, RMT may need to pay higher interest costs or pay a cash top-up quid pro quo. Note that a 30% fall in asset values (not an unfair estimation) essentially wipes out the equity value at this level of leverage. Facilities at risk, large repayment need. RMT is committed to buy three Hanjin vessels for US$207m over the next nine months. It may not be able to fully draw down the US$174.2m in committed loan facilities, which are contingent on market values staying above a certain (undisclosed) level. Based on the repayment and maturity schedule of existing debt and loan facilities, we estimate that RMT needs to repay up to US$154m in loans next year. No financing for Maersk vessels. RMT is also contracted to buy four Maersk vessels, due next year, at US$711.6m. No financing has been arranged so far. We note that the acquisition costs for the Hanjin and Maersk vessels are fixed at pre-crisis valuations. So even if lenders provide 100% loan-to-market value, it may not cover the cost of the Maersk vessels. Downgrade to SELL. RMT is already unsustainably geared as it is. The committed acquisitions leverage up the risk. Other high risk events include counterparty default or a loan prepayment call. Fair value estimate is revised down to S$0.29 (previously S$0.40), and rating cut to SELL. | ||||
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freeme
Elite |
29-Apr-2009 22:47
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Report only serve as a reference.. shipping trust is even better than reits in my view even both high on leverage |
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bh704428
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 22:39
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see their reports I read just for very causal reference only. you have them? So can u post the reports here?? btw, last month my broker email me 1 report saying UOB to fall to $5, that time UOB was $8plus, it say avoid banks . But Look at UOB share price now., rose so much. Sometimes depending on where the report comes from, if one do the exact opposite , may huat instead.
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Alligator
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 22:32
Yells: "learning from past " |
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i think it is not possible to project price over 1-2 year. Also, i read several analyse reports... tell u the truth, if you follow them you dare not buy. |
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bh704428
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 22:15
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yup. oredi vested A bit only recently, but very tempted to buy more becos 1 of my FD accounts matures tomoro. Thinking whether should divert a part into this?? Any guess on it's likely price in abt 2 to 4 years time?
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freeme
Elite |
29-Apr-2009 22:01
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u invested?
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bh704428
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 21:55
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btw just for casual reference. anyone knows currently is there any price target by analysts/brokerages for this Rickmers? | ||||
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freeme
Elite |
29-Apr-2009 20:50
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the nears due for refinance is US$130 million Top-Up Facility maturing April 2010. Shipping trust are all heavily fund on leverage. Thats why due to fear of lack of credits in the mkt, the unit price kana whack down until like that. If you notice all shipping stocks, most of them are the same. Other reasons include: - depreciation of asset - worry on prolong global recession Seriously if this counter or FSL px fall further, even best to load up more.. One down side is, when other stocks recover, this kind of counter will recover very slowly also. But too lose money in this, very hard.. Try treat it as fix deposit. ;)
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freeme
Elite |
29-Apr-2009 20:38
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me small prawn only.. holding 20 lots @ 0.34
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cheongwee
Elite |
29-Apr-2009 18:28
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i think it is better to find out when the refinancing of US$647 due... it is listed at 1.57 on 4/5/07..nw 35c.. can pls enlighten me why the px is so low,,,is the market know what we didnt...no offence. check nw better than regret later...certainly do appear attractive with close to 40% dividend.. |
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bh704428
Veteran |
29-Apr-2009 18:03
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Any guess on this Rickmers share price in 1 to 2 years time? btw, freeme, u vested this at average wat price? how many lots u bought?
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freeme
Elite |
24-Apr-2009 15:23
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good la.. hehe me also got collect this together with FSL..
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Alligator
Veteran |
24-Apr-2009 15:14
Yells: "learning from past " |
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freeme, ya, i collect this for long term divvy play.. as their base DPU is USD2.14c per quarter, their business model is 7-10year long term contract to big shippers. so i do this to collect quarterly dividend.. 40% annual...hope to collect for 2.5 years and the rest is profit.. haha |
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battouchai
Member |
24-Apr-2009 15:06
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Chairman said outlook not rosy leh... somemore run up liao.. what's TP? | ||||
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freeme
Elite |
24-Apr-2009 14:40
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yo alligator, u also into this ar? hehe moving up liao
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Alligator
Veteran |
24-Apr-2009 14:30
Yells: "learning from past " |
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7 May 2009 Units trade ex-Distribution 20 May 2009 Payment of the Distribution |
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