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singaporegal Supreme	03-Aug-2006 15:00        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hi u4ria80, My TA guru is Larry Williams. Look for his books. He emphasises alot on the right trading psychology
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singaporegal Supreme	03-Aug-2006 14:58        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi allantanhc, The analyst came to his own conclusions using his own set of tools. If a TA tool confirms another tool, it just provides more evidence and a higher probability of something happening. I don't really use resistance/support levels or moving averages like the analyst.... didn't find much use in them. I'm basically a "trend" person. I find price trends using TA and just follow them.
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u4ria80 Member	03-Aug-2006 09:02        u4ria80 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	im a newbie in stock trading and is interested in TA.anyone can recommend a good book to follow through?. does anyone do candlestick charting here as well?
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allantanhc Veteran	02-Aug-2006 23:09        allantanhc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Singapregal, incidentally, OCBC analyst seems to also think that SGX's price will fall going forward. I have extracted the analysis for sharing. Do you think it makes sense?
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allantanhc Veteran	02-Aug-2006 23:06        allantanhc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Warrant Analysis - Singapore Exchange Ltd (2nd August 2006) Wed, 02 Aug 2006, 08:31:25 SGT Warrant: SGX MBL EPW070212 - We recommend a Buy on the SGX MBL EPW070212. Entry price set below S$0.215. - Target price set at 4-5 bids above entry price and cut loss set at 2-3 bids below entry price. - This warrant is the only Put warrant for SGX currently. It currently trades at 13.2% out-of-the-money with a strike price of S$3.30. - Its 30-day historical volatility is approximately 43%. But on 1st Aug, it closed with an implied volatility of 65%, indicating rising activity in this Put warrant. Technical View - SGX is currently in a correction. It is undergoing wave 3 - the final impulsive wave - of a corrective wave. - SGX has paused at its recent high of S$3.80 on 1st Aug, stopping just short of its immediate resistance level at S$3.90. But with the stochastic indicator already showing overbought signals, we forecast an impending reversal. - The resistance level at S$3.90 also has the 100-day moving average trending below it, which will act as the first line of resistance before S$3.90. - Immediate support level for this reversal is set at S$3.60.
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singaporegal Supreme	02-Aug-2006 22:21        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi allantanhc, Actually, what I meant was that there's a probablity of a trend reversal. However, the evidence is not strong enough to make me put in a trade. Why I say this is because SGX's Bollinger Bands are not tight (meaning a sharp price change is about to occur) enough. I have used Williams 1.28 method before but ONLY if the Bollinger Bands are really really tight. These 2 methods work well together. This time round, however, I would think its safer to sit back and watch a while.
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shplayer Elite	02-Aug-2006 21:59        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	singaporegal, Thanks......I am still fundementally a FA investor. Trying to learn TA to time entry and exit better.....to squeeze the extra few %  profit or minimise losses. Have acquired a few books on TA.......unfortunately...have not found time to read it yet.
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allantanhc Veteran	02-Aug-2006 18:58        allantanhc About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Heh, Singaporegal, just wonder what is at stack here? Will you buy Put warrant on SGX at current price since you think so strongly that there will be a reversal of trend in 7 to 10 days?
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Nostradamus Supreme	02-Aug-2006 18:11        Nostradamus About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	So what do the FA people have to say about the challenge?
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whizzer Member	02-Aug-2006 12:43        whizzer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	THANKS S'poregal
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singaporegal Supreme	02-Aug-2006 07:22        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi whizzer - yah... I think its a possible trend downwards. This 1.28 technique works better if its supported by other TA evidence (esp.. Bollinger Bands). For this case, I think it might happen but there still some uncertainity because the other evidence is not so strong. Hi shplayer - I would not go in to SGX yet.. because although it is at an uptrend now, its Williams %R is now way overbought. BTW, maybe you should try out the technique using paper trading first?
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shplayer Elite	01-Aug-2006 14:32        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sorry, too fast on the calculator...up 6cts...1.6%.....half day contra make about 1% gain.
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shplayer Elite	01-Aug-2006 14:02        shplayer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	singaporegal, Well, SGX up 6cts at midday from yesterday's close. That is about 6% price appreciation. So, for half day trading, could have contra with about 5.5% gain. Unfortunately, have not jumped in yet. What level would be reasonable to get in now?.........trying to test TA....so, I believe the best way to learn is by putting in tuition money.
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DanielXX Member	01-Aug-2006 13:14        DanielXX About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Although I focus more on fundamental analysis, it sometimes makes sense to combine technical analysis in the investment approach, as they can be complementary rather than mutually exclusive.  My article on technical analysis:http://mystockthoughts.blogspot.com/2006/07/technical-analysis.html One of the perpetually hottest debates among the stock market players is the issue of fundamental analysis vs technical analysis. On one side you have those who believe that share prices are ultimately a reflection of the company's fortunes and therefore the arcane art of stock price prediction must start and end with an analysis of the strength and profitability of the business; on the other you have an equally fervent set of mainly short-term traders who, in the purest form, believe the stock's past price-volume trading history holds the key and a vital set of clues to its future price performance, and even provide a reflection of the fundamentals of the company that are as yet not publicly known. And of course, there are the so-called hybrids who try to combine both in their investment/trading approach. The case for technical analysis has not been helped in the sometime religious/astrological fervour to which its practitioners try to interpret buy/sell signals from their charts, and the shallowness of thought process as well as groupthink that seems to infect the most vocal of them. But at its root, there is no denying its usefulness in price prediction. The doyen of fundamental investing himself, Ben Graham, had said famously that the market was a voting machine in the short-term and a weighing machine in the long-term. And what is technical analysis, but an attempt to assess the technical position of a stock (including things like market technicals, traders' optimism, stock price momentum, buy-sell balance) in the short-term? If one takes the position that it pays to know what the average investor is thinking (although that probably also means having to guess what this average investor thinks what his counterparts are also thinking --- a never-ending paradox), then technical analysis provides a route to gauging the pulse and psychology behind a stock, never mind the underlying reasons. The fact that most, if not all, self-respecting brokerage research houses have their technical analysis division suggests that they believe in the value of gauging market sentiment and tendencies. It is possibly a self-fulfilling prophecy: enough people believe in an idea and it becomes mainstream thinking. Ultimately it influences the price that it is attempting to predict in the first place. Of course, nobody wants to cede any advantage they could get. If one thinks generally about the market, technical analysis is similar to the comparative valuation techniques used in assigning suitable PEs, P/NTAs etc to companies by cross-referencing to peer companies in the same sector: things are ok if the trading band/general PE multiple remains the same over time, but what if the industry undergoes a downturn suggesting a deterioration in prospects and hence PE multiples? That's where the second valuation technique comes in, techniques like discounted cash flow etc ---- analogous to fundamental analysis. In short, technical analysis could be seen as the waves, fundamental analysis as the general water level. On the other hand, what use might it be if everybody uses it? It is equivalent to the situation where nobody gets a viewing advantage in a stadium if everybody stands up to get a better view. The usefulness of technical analysis, ironically, lies in its not being too popular that the market becomes efficient in this respect, but also not being too obscure that nobody practises it and hence reducing the effectiveness of the abovestated self-fulfilling prophecy. Talking about efficient market, there are three versions: weak, semi-strong and strong. Weak-form efficiency suggests no excess returns can be earned by using investment strategies based on historical share prices or other financial data, hence implying that technical analysis is useless. Semi-strong form and strong forms postulate that share prices will adjust quickly to new information, suggesting that fundamental analysis is useless. That weak-form efficiency does not deny the usefulness of fundamental analysis while discounting the efficacy of technical analysis also shows clearly the leaning of academicians. Basically the choice between fundamental and technical analysis for me boils down to two issues: relative effectiveness and focus. Most would agree that technical analysis is most effective over the short-term, while fundamental analysis, over a longer term. But if the market is even remotely, approximately efficient (read my views in "Is the market efficient"), then such market efficiency effects should intuitively be more prevalent over the short-term. Which suggests it makes sense to focus on longer-term techniques (ie. fundamental analysis), if one sees market efficiency as an enemy to market outperformance. Secondly, while accepting that both schools of thought are useful and possibly could even be complementary in their approach, one has only limited amount of time resources to do his "stock research". More time spent on technical analysis means less time available for fundamental analysis --- the substitution effect. So, the choice is really whether to overweight technical analysis and underweight fundamental analysis, or the contrary. But it pays to keep an open mind and to never completely deny the usefulness of technical analysis. Just as technical analysis preaches "no smoke without fire", it also makes sense to apply this cliche to technical analysis as a practice in itself.
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whizzer Member	01-Aug-2006 12:53        whizzer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi S'poregal, noted the above, then how do you come to a trend reversal? I presume yr reversal is from current uptrend to a downtrend rite?
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singaporegal Supreme	01-Aug-2006 11:45        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi whizzer and shplayer, I'm saying 7-10 trading days. So probably 2 calendar weeks from now. I think there's a probable chance for price reversal... I use the Williams 1.28 method that measures the distance between 2 price peaks or troughs. I think its on a uptrend because of 3 things - RSI, Acc/Dist and Chaikin all pointing up. I like SGX because its consistently high volume. :)
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singaporegal Supreme	01-Aug-2006 11:37        singaporegal About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Female TA nut"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Bullrun, I think its impossible for FA to predict in 7-10 days... so maybe you can do so for 2 months. I on the other hand, will try to forecast price trends over 7-10 day intervals.
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whizzer Member	01-Aug-2006 10:19        whizzer About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi S'poregal, appreciate if you can elaborate on how u determine a slow uptrend and your basis for a trend reversal. I'm a beginner thats trying to see what you expert sees.
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Sporeguy Elite	01-Aug-2006 09:00        Sporeguy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sporegal, I agree with you that in 7-10 days, (as seen using William 13 days) there will be a reversal. Let's go a bit further. I think the resistance is at $4 or at most $4.25 after which the reversal set in.
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BullRun Elite	31-Jul-2006 22:41        BullRun About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	singaporegal, are we supposed to predict the price in 2 months time or keep updating once every 7 to 10 days?
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