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NOL
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Lucky03
Veteran |
14-Nov-2013 18:43
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I agree with what Dr YC. Chan comment at the end of his Oct 203 issue below that NOL should be turning around. Can't tell if the price will support it 6 mths or 1 year but the yield should be more than 30%.
Dear Friends After US Fed?s meeting on 30 October, matters relating to bond purchases and extremely low interest rate remained status quo. US Stocks however, dipped after hitting new high. The reaction is not unusual after short selling on good news. Before the good news was announced, the stock markets went up, which means the concluded result was expected by the markets. Since the Fed?s market withdrwal forenounced in May this year, US stocks have dropped 3 times, conspicuously to rock bottom: 1 time in mid June 2 time end of August 3 time early October. The withdrawal does not happen this time round, but it will definitely happen in time to come. Thus I believe US stocks will repeatedly go up and down under the shadow of market withdrawal influence. For the short term, US stocks will move independently depending on the performance of invidual listed companies. The local market should have its focus on the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party and the the People?s Bank?s money supplies. US Fed will have another meeting in December. It should be the last meeting attended by the incumbent Chairman Bernanke who initiated the Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy (QE) of the US. Morally Bernanke should not simply leave as it is. Thus I am somewhat concern the December meeting might unexpectedly start to withdraw from the markets prior to Bernanke?s departure, and to let him handle the post withdrawal issues. In December US Republican Party and the Democratic Party will negotiate once again on US national debt ceiling issue. The October 17 agreement was to push back the issue for 3 months Republicans will keep using the debt ceiling issue to force Obama to cut governmental expenditures. In September this year, US financial expenditures were surprisingly in black with some surpluses. I believe this could be the result of the Republicans? past successful automatic deficit reduction budget plan. In fact, if Obama would follow Clinton not spending frivolously, US tax revenue would exceed expenditure with no deficit, and the debt ceiling issue would not have happened. Awhile ago, the share price of SkyOne Holdings plummeted. Since large numbers of dragon stocks and those Singapore companies with investments in China public listed in Singapore, problems often surface due to relatively poorer corporate governance in China. On the othe hand, there could be some people, reporters in particular, having received money from a 3 party, purposefully spread unfavourable faked news of a company to let its share price drop, so that the 3 party who pay the money make profit from short selling prior to the faked news. Lately the Chinese Public Security Authorities arrest a Guangzhou New Express (广 州 新 快 报 )reporter suspected of spreading unfavourable faked news of Hong Kong listed Zoomlion (中 联 重 科 ). How to we tackle this kind of problems? The only way is to deversify your investments. Be wary of those manipulated dragon stocks. Do not over panic, search into the sources of the news to see if it is from some ones with motives spreading rumours. NOL has turned around in 3 quarter. The worst senario of freight forwarders should be over. |
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banana
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14-Nov-2013 17:23
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What's your objective fool?
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
14-Nov-2013 17:20
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Relax lah, discussion only mah. Need so many lee leh loh lah meh? Blue chips are for investment not for speculation. I am not in the money now but even if I sell now, I only lose broker fees. NOT STUCKED. STUCKED=> > > high losses if sell. If you really think this is a joke, why don't you try shorting it now? Maybe you would be laughing your way to bank in a few months time- for whatever reason. Who knows? Maersk has got different market from NOL don't compare. Better comparision would be Mitsui-soko and Nippon express. On average, NOL still stays near industry trend. Don't know why you are not shorting this? You joking only?
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Heero78
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14-Nov-2013 17:10
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not a joke??? let its price speak for itself. maersk earn big big but NOL only barely survive. investors?? stuck say stuck lah.....lost of opp cost....
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sgng123
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14-Nov-2013 11:52
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why worry so much currently price is range bound with little investor interest. everyday only like 2 mil share traded between brokerage house just for show. whole economy would recover just be patient, I don see pp spamming bad news when economy is doing good and ship moving high. This is trading sentiment lol, share would go higher and higher and would hit a bottom and bottom up. In short investor always win big in the long term, speculator all die like cockroach when light is turned on. For now go do something else and temp forget about ship, next year then refocus on it. The US $4 billion ship renewal program would be fully completed in 3Q14, then u see money rolling regardless of low freight rate just like maesrk as they start their fleet renewal program 1 year ahead of nol. | ||||
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Hawkeye
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14-Nov-2013 10:09
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Put NOL in freezer or chilled condition with Nitrogen like banana. Time up take out ripe loh! Ha Ha Ha No worry lah Ah Gong Ship, Singapore life line lei! Can not allow to die Temasek got 200+billion to support can buy 20 aircraft carrier also. Temasek own 68+%, we own kopi money only! Sure make money lah! or Singapore no survive lah!
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banana
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14-Nov-2013 09:00
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5 Nov to today is 9 days. U mentioned no short term play
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Solidsnake
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14-Nov-2013 08:56
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Good morning banana,
pls help highlight what's contradictory so that we can all learn from it. I saw it on my chart. Tried posting img files in here for all to share but it's not possible. Thanks.
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banana
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14-Nov-2013 08:00
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Do free research for u to bull?
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MetalTrader
Senior |
14-Nov-2013 00:39
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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A Sky & A Ground. Ask your friend who are in shipping, they will be able to tell you.
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Lucky03
Veteran |
14-Nov-2013 00:35
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How different ?
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MetalTrader
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14-Nov-2013 00:08
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Maersk Line & NOL are completely different, though both are in shipping industry.
If you link 2 together, i guess you are off track.
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banana
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13-Nov-2013 23:41
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Very contradictory indeed
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Lucky03
Veteran |
13-Nov-2013 22:34
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NOL should see the same story soon.
Profit at Maersk Line was up 10% for the period, helped by efficiency gains and an increase in volumes. APM Terminals' profit for the third quarter rose from $156m to $203m, as volumes grew 4% to 9.3m teu, in line with expectations, and revenues grew by 7%. Maersk Tankers recorded an $18m profit for the third quarter, up from a $278m loss in Q3 2012, although its nine month net loss stands at $271m fuelled by depreciation, amortisation and impairment losses, down from $316m for the same nine months last year. Maersk Drilling's third quarter improved from $84m last year to $148m in 2013 as operational uptime rose to 98% and day rates increased. Profit at Maersk Oil fell to $189m from $243m, entitlement production of 229,000 boepd is down on last year's 240,000 boepd, but represents a halt to the decline with a small increase over the second quarter of this year. The group has revised its result forecast to $3.5bn, up from $3.3bn, and expects Maersk Line to record a significant improvement over last years $461m profit for the full year, despite entering the seasonally low fourth quarter with low rates. |
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Lucky03
Veteran |
13-Nov-2013 22:28
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2014 should be a turnaround year for NOL. I won't be surprised if the price doubles as freight rate recovers with improved East-West trade as Europe recovers and the cost efficiency that NOL is already experiencing.
Maersk Line boosts AP Møller profits, P3 aiming for Q2 2014 By Gary Howard from London Maersk Line?s operating profit after tax for the first nine months of 2013 stands at $1.1bn, up from $126m for the same period last year. Profit for the third quarter was $554m, Improving on Q3 2012's $498m. The Danish box line's efficiency drive and a drop in bunker costs slashed unit cost by $390 per feu and, along with a 10.6% increase in volumes to 2.3m feu, helped to offset a 12% decline in freight rates to $2,654 per feu. Three of the company's Triple E ULCVs were delivered during the quarter, contributing to a capacity increase of 3.9% since Q3 2012. The company also gave a brief update on the state of the P3 alliance for East-West trade of Maersk Line, MSC and CMA CGM, "Parties have carefully reviewed the applicable laws and are cooperating closely with competition and maritime authorities worldwide to provide the information required to obtain regulatory approval. Aim is to start operations in Q2 2014, assuming regulatory approval has been obtained by then." Maersk Line expects its 2013 result to be a significant improvement on the $461m recorded last year. |
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CSH123
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13-Nov-2013 21:46
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counters that gone up had already came down/back to where it started. Theres not many instruments to put your $. if trade is affected, most things will be affected hence patience is key. you cant force growth unlike austerity. .u cant force the mkt to be bearish when its bullish..ref dji and hsi is also not right as its highly speculative. theres also not much of trading activity done for this ship during this period | ||||
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MetalTrader
Senior |
13-Nov-2013 21:45
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tomorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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A hanging Giant. | ||||
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Solidsnake
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13-Nov-2013 21:03
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It's not just NOL, it's an industry issue. Most, if not all container shipping lines were bleeding due to lower freight cost. I am vested around this price hoping that it will move up but it's been trading sideways at this px narrowly and my faith in this counter has been challenged. Could have put my $ elsewhere. Just don't know when we get to see the light. This is a laggard service industry. Take a look at other counters in their segments. Quite a few of them have moved up and seen the top with the indices moving up. Looking across us, eu, sti, hsi indices, there is a real danger that the selling off may start next year and container shipping industry has not even picked up. So where do we go from here?
Opp cost incurred for me. Wrong call for me. |
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Rosesyrup
Veteran |
13-Nov-2013 20:48
Yells: "Get your own opinion, don't follow blindly." |
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Except for the formatting, I think it's wonderful read thanks.
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williamyeo
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13-Nov-2013 20:41
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5 Things You Should Know About Neptune Orient Lines By Alison Hunt - November 11, 2013 | See also: N03 . logo_nolWith around 90% of today?s world?s trade being transported by sea, shipping containerization is big business. Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) (SGX: RE2) was founded in 1968, by the Singapore Government. The idea was that by shipping the nation?s trade at fair freight prices, it should maintain a supply line of essential cargoes during times of crisis. However, NOL?s roots can actually be traced back much further ? to the USA of all places, 120 years earlier. Howland & Aspinwall Born in New York City in 1801, William Henry Aspinwall started his working life with the family?s firm of Howland & Aspinwall, specializing in trade with the Caribbean. He was soon running the company, and oversaw expansion into South America, China, Europe and the Mediterranean. Clipper Realising that faster ships meant more profit, Aspinwall commissioned a naval architect to help him design what some have called the first clipper ship, ?Rainbow?. In 1845, Aspinwall acquired the contract to deliver mail between Panama and Oregon ? an unusual choice considering few passengers wished to travel by the fast but expensive steamer to help boost profits. What?s more the route had no great ports, facilities, industries or coal ? or even repair yards that could service steamers. Undeterred, Aspinwall founded the Pacific Mail Steamship Company (Pacific Mail) and ordered three new steamships to inaugurate the trade. Gold! However, January 1848 saw everything change when gold was found in Coloma, California. One of the first places to get wind of the news was Oregon and by the end of the year, many of its residents had started flocking south to seek their fortunes. Pacific Mail?s steamships were suddenly in demand by passengers ? which increased further when heavy snow blocked the overland routes. The company went on to seal its monopoly of the Panama ? Oregon route in 1850, when it bought two steamships from its rival Empire City Line. The company also began a freighter service across the Pacific. Expansion and Takeover After opening a sea route to the Far East in 1867, Pacific Mail increased the frequency of its service and added newer and more modern ships. However, the cost of this expansion, coupled with the economic depression enabled Union Pacific Railroad to take over Pacific Mail in 1885. In 1893, South Pacific Railroad took over the company ? extending its service to include direct routes to Honolulu, Kobe, Nagasaki and Shanghai. Panama Canal However, the opening of the Panama Canal in 1912 was a double-edged sword. While it presented opportunities for US shipping companies, railroad operators were banned from using the canal in a bid to prevent the formation of a monopoly. Pacific Mail was sold to Grace Line ? which invested heavily in it. By 1920, the company had 46 steamers to its name. Dollar Line However, Pacific Mail now faced competition from another steamship company Dollar Line. The Dollar family bought shares in its competitors ? and by 1924, had managed to acquire Pacific Mail from Grace Line. By 1930, Dollar had succeeded in gaining nearly full control of the Pacific shipping routes. American President Lines (APL) However, in 1937, the Depression, and the losses from the wreck of one of its vessels took their toll ? and Dollar declared bankruptcy in 1938. The US government took the company over and renamed it American President Lines (APL). As World War II broke out, APL?s fleet was converted to support the war effort ? returning to passenger trade in 1946. Planes (Trains) and Container shipping However, things were about to change again. In 1952, APL was acquired by the Natomas Company ? which wanted to investigate a brand new idea that promised to revolutionize international shipping ? container shipping. With passenger ships under a looming threat from another great idea ? Pan American Airlines? first passenger jet service ? Natomas made the decision to convert APL?s operations to container shipping. It was the right decision ? by 1965 passenger traffic rates among shipping lines had halved and continued to dwindle as people took to the skies ? while container shipping was rapidly becoming the dominant mode for shipping goods. By 1979, Natomas had been acquired by Diamond Shamrock ? which spun APL off as a public company in 1983. Neptune Orient Lines In the meantime, the Singapore government had been looking into starting its own shipping line. With no experience, Singapore asked for help from the government of Pakistan ? requiring an expert to advise them on the formation of a shipping company. Captain Muhammad Jalaluddin Sayeed, an Indian sea captain was selected and helped the Singapore Government with the founding of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) in 1968. However, as an inexperienced newcomer to the Far East trade, NOL faced many difficulties in gaining its share of the trade ? until companies such as Lee Rubber, Tropical Produce and Ang Woo Liang reluctantly started to ship with it. Fortunately, NOL had the support of the Singapore government, which supplied capital and loans. NOL finally became profitable in 1975, despite a slump in the shipping business, largely due to improvements made by its managing director Goh Chok Tong. With containerization taking off, NOL started to accept containers on its conventional ships but felt constrained by its size and trading limitations. ACE Consortium In 1975, NOL joined forces with OOCL, ?K? Line and Franco-Belgian Services to form the ACE consortium ? rapidly known as the ?third force? in the container-shipping world. The group was soon offering weekly services between the Far East and Europe ? and broke into the lucrative trans-Pacific route between Asia and the US. NOL buys APL However, it wasn?t until 1997, when NOL made the US$285m acquisition of APL that it made the news around the world. The deal, which more than doubled NOL?s size and put it amongst the top five in the industry worldwide was the largest ever made by a Singapore company. With APL now its major container shipping brand for customers, NOL had a complete ?around the world? operation. Debt However, the Asian economic crisis hit hard. NOL saw losses mount to US$460m in 1998, while its debt was more the US$4bn. The company sold off assets to clear the debt ? and by 1999 was profitable again. Following further slumps between 2000 and 2009, NOL focused on reducing costs and protecting existing revenue streams. But did you know?. 1.William Henry Aspinwall also founded the Panama railroad and Panama Canal. 2.Upon retirement, Aspinwall founded the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals as well as New York?s Metropolitan Museum of Art. 3.The Dollar Line had a practice of naming its ships after American presidents ? an idea the US government approved of so much when it took over the company that it renamed it American President Lines (APL) 4.NOL was the first, wholly government-owned company to be listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Today, NOL?s major shareholder with a 68% stake is Temasek Holdings ? the investment arm of the Singapore Government. 5.NOL?s managing director Goh Chok Tong famously went on to become Singapore?s second Prime Minister. Today, NOL is still one of the top five shipping companies in the world, offering ocean shipping and container transportation services as well as logistics services, primarily serving the electronics, high tech, retail, consumer and industrial sectors. | ||||
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