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Cash Rich YangZhiJiang and Good Earnings and funda Post Reply Rate topic
huatah Veteran	05-Nov-2007 15:04        huatah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi Cailou.. BB means Big Boy... No worry.. Like happyse27, me ganna at 2.5plus too.. but always believe yang will make it.. to the mark of S$3 eventually.
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 15:03        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	ｈｉ　ｗｅｌｃｏｍｅ．．． ｂｂ＝ｂｉｇ　ｂｒｏｔｈｅｒ，　ｔｈｏｓｅ　ｂｉｇｇｅｒ　ｔｈａｎ　ｕｓ　ｉｎ　ｔｅｒｍｓ　ｏｆ　ｆｉｎａｎｃｉａｌ　ｍｕｓｃｌｅｓ．．．
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caillou Member	05-Nov-2007 15:00        caillou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	thanks happyse.. may i know what "BB" means? i saw this abbrev appearing very often but couldnt guess what this is.. (err... pai-sei if this appears to be a simple question.. i'm quite a new player in shares trading.. still learning ropes..)....  :-)
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 14:56        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ｈ ｉ　caillou ， 　Ｆｅｅｌ　ｔｈａｔ　ｉｔ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｂｅ　ｔｈｅ　ｗａｙ，　ｇｏｔ　ｉｎ　ａｔ　２．５ｐｌｕｓ（ｈｏｐｅ　ｙｏｕ　ａｒｅ　ｂｅｔｔｅｒ　ｏｆｆ，　ａｎｙｗａｙ　１０－２０％ｄｒｏｐ　ｆｏｒ　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ａｒｅ　ｎｏｔ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｆｕｌ　ａｓ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｂｏｕｎｃｅ　ｂａｃｋ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｆａｓｔｅｒ）．　３　ｄｏｌｌａｒｓ　ａｔ　ｙｅａｒ　ｅｎｄ　ｏｒ　ｍｏｒｅ　ｉｓ　ｈｉｇｈ　ｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅ．　 　　Ｊｕｓｔ　ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｌｉｋｅ　ｔｈｏｓｅ　ＢＢｓ　ｐｌａｙｉｎｇ　ｕｓ．．．　Ｂｕｔ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｌｓｏ　ｂｏ　ｐｉａｎ　ａｓ　ｇｏｔ　ｔａｒｇｅｔ　ｔｏ　ｍｅｅｔ（ｇｏｏｄ　ｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ　ｈｏｕｓｅ　ｄｏｅｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｄｏ　ｔｈａｔ，　ｔｈｅ　ＢＢｓ　ｈａｖｅ　ｔｏ　ｓｔｕｄｙ　ｍｏｒｅ　Ｉ　ｆｅｅｌ，　ｔｈｅｙ　ｗｏｕｌｄ　ｇｅｔ　ｂｕｒｎｔ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｄａｙｓ　ｄｕｅ　ｔｏ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｊｕｓｔ　ｗｈａｌｅｓ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　ｏｃｅａｎｓ，　ｔｈｅ　ｓｍａｌｌｅｒｓ　ｆｉｓｈｅｓ　ｏｒ　ｔｉｄａｌ　ｗａｖｅｓ　ｃａｎ　ｅａｔ　ｔｈｅｍ）．　 　　Ｂｕｔ　ｗｈｏ　ｉｎ　ｔｈｅ　ｒｉｇｈｔ　ｆｒａｍｅ　ｏｆ　ｍｉｎｄ　ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｗａｎｔ　ｔｏ　ｂｕｙ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｎｅｘｔ　ｙｅａｒ　ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｌｉｓｔｅｄ　ｉｎ　ｔｏｐ　３０　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ｃａｔｅｇｏｒｙ．　Ｔｈｅ　ｍａｒｋｅｔ　ｃａｐ．　ｉｓ　ｂｉｇ　ａｌｓｏ．　Ｔｈｅｙ　ａｒｅ　ｃａｓｈ　ｒｉｃｈ　ｒｉｃｈ　ｒｉｃｈ．．． 　Ｄｏ　ｓｏｍｅ　ｖｉｅｗｉｎｇｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｐａｓｔ　２　ｙｅａｒｓ　ｇｒａｐｈｓ　ａｎｄ　ｐａｓｔ　ｔｒｅｎｄｓ，　ａｎｄ　ｐｌｕｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｆｕｎｄａｍｅｎｔａｌｓ，　ｙｏｕ　ｗｏｕｌｄ　ｆｉｎｄ　ｔｈａｔ　Ｐｉｎｋ　Ｄｉａｍｏｎｄ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅｒｅ．　Ｉｔ　ｉｓ　ｎｏｔ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｈａｌｆ　ｏｆ　Ｃｏｓｃｏ＇ｓ　ｓｔｏｃｋ　ｐｒｉｃｅ，　ｂａｓｅｄ　ｏｎ　ｈｏｗ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｔｈｅｙ　ｂｏｕｎｃｅｄ　ｂａｃｋ　ｓｔｒｏｎｇｅｒ．
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caillou Member	05-Nov-2007 14:48        caillou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	thanks heppyse.... your reply certainly ease the tension in me.. :)
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 14:47        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｍａｙｂｅ　ｋｅｙ　ｉｎ　ｏｕｔ　ｏｆ　ｆｅａｒ．．． Ｔｈｅ　ｕｓｕａｌ　ｆａｍｏｕｓ　ｓａｙｉｎｇ　： Ｂｅ　ｇｒｅｅｄｙ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｏｔｈｅｒｓ　ａｒｅ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｌ．　Ｂｅ　ｆｅａｒｆｕｌ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｏｔｈｅｒｓ　ａｒｅ　ｇｒｅｅｄｙ． Ａｎｙｗａｙ，　ｉｆ　ｍｉｄ　ｔｏ　ｌｏｎｇ　ｔｅｒｍ　ｓｈｏｕｌｄ　ｂｅ　ｆｉｎｅ．　Ｙａｎｇ　Ｚｈｉ　Ｊｉａｎｇ　ｉｓ　ｏｎｅ　ｏｆ　ｖｅｒｙ　ｆｅｗ　ｔｏｐ　３０　ｂｌｕｅ　ｃｈｉｐｓ　ｌｅｆｔ　ｔｈａｔ　ｉｓ　ｕｎｄｅｒｖａｌｕｅｄ．　 Ｂｕｙ　ＡＨ！！！！！！
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caillou Member	05-Nov-2007 14:46        caillou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Dear all...i do not understand why YZJ is dropping with all the good reports on its book orders... perhaps someone can enlighten me..?  :) thanks....
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idesa168 Elite	05-Nov-2007 14:44        idesa168 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Not a bad thing to sell one lot at 228. It's a sign of closing gap, and prepare for reversal. Lets hope so...
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DnApeh Master	05-Nov-2007 14:41        DnApeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Who go and sell the ONE lot at 2.28!!!!! Do you know how much damage you have done????? OOPhs, maybe the BB trying to zhuo-pai??
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caillou Member	05-Nov-2007 14:16        caillou About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	its dipping.....
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Sporeguy Elite	05-Nov-2007 14:00        Sporeguy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Repost here for easy ref: 24-Oct-2007 20:37 Yangzijiang   /   One of China's largest shipyard x 0 x 0 38.2% retracement will be at $2.30 may be a good one to accumulate. 61.8% retracement to $2.10 will be excellent catch!
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elfinchilde Elite	05-Nov-2007 13:47        elfinchilde About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	watching this baby too. :) not yet tho, dumping not done yet. does anyone know when its Q results are out?
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idesa168 Elite	05-Nov-2007 13:10        idesa168 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	I am targeting YZJ to close price gap at 263 (29 Oct) this week. Stochastic hooking up. RSI in near oversold zone. Hope it will not disappoint me.
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 12:49        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks！！Cheong Ah... BB BEWARE!!!　：）
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idesa168 Elite	05-Nov-2007 12:40        idesa168 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SHOULD TURN AROUND ANYTIME NOW SINCE YZJ HAD BEEN RED ON CHART FOR SO MANY DAYS ALREADY. WATCH THIS SPACE.
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idesa168 Elite	05-Nov-2007 12:39        idesa168 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I AM READY TO BUY MORE ANYTIME TO ADD ON TO MY PREVIOUS PURCHASE OF 2.33
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 12:36        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Resistance at 2.25 to 2.3plus, based on the forex exchange loss of less than 10%( in fact USD might drop to about 1.4 till next year only.. Dropped from 2.66, in fact too low now... Accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. BBs who does short, kindly beware of global market forces..., be it how strong your team is...
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 12:16        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi All,   Anyway, the USD is dropping to about from 1.5 to about 1.4 maybe till next year end(hopefully better USA president comes without WAR), the impact is only 5% to at most 10%. Besides there are good hedging and not all transactions in USD.   But the Turnover this year Forecast is 4,150.2Million and net profit is 679.4, meaning the margin is 16%. give it worst case 10%, well enough to cover the impact. it is still well enough to cover the risk... Besides China is booming, not ready to slow down for these few years...    Moreover the Return on Equity is well above 30%. in fact 50%   Any comments, please feel free to air the view.
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happyse27 Member	05-Nov-2007 12:00        happyse27 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Buy S$2.66 STI : 3,771.55 Yangzijiang   Price Target : 12-Month S$ 3.0 Steeling up for new orders Reason for Report : Plant visit Story: Management allayed investors! concern over rising steel Potential Catalyst: Earnings execution prices and the strengthening RMB during our visit to their new   yard in Jingjiang city, Jiangsu province. ANALYST Janice Chua +65 6398 7954 Point: We continue to like YZJ as a key beneficiary of the wave janicechua@dbsvickers.com   of shipbuilding orders flowing to China, which is gaining market Ho Pei Hwa +65 6398 7968 share from Korean and Japanese shipyards. As the largest private peihwa@dbsvickers.com containership builder in China and among the top ten globally for containerships, we believe YZJ is well positioned to benefit from FORECASTS AND VALUATION the strong demand for bulk carriers and containerships. 2005A 2006A2007F 2008F FY Dec (RMB m)  Relevance: Backed by a record orderbook of RMB35.8bn (or Turnover 1,532.6 2,325.04,150.2 7,602.4 EBITDA 280.8 481.0736.8 1,304.8 USD4.8bn), representing 9x its FY07 revenue, this underpins Pre-tax Profit 299.2 518.9806.4 1,413.0 earnings visibility till FY10. Our TP of S$3.04 is based on a target PE Net Profit 283.5 454.3679.4 1,126.9 of 28x on FY09 earnings for Yangzijiang, translating into an Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 283.5 454.3679.4 1,126.9 undemanding PEG of 0.6x on Yangzijiang!ˉs three-year EPS CAGR EPS (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6 of 58%. EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 82 6020 66   Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.1 3.34.0 6.6 Completion of new yard ahead of schedule. To tap on the current robust Net DPS (S cts) 0.1 3.10.8 1.3 demand, Yangzijiang (!°YZJ) accelerated the completion of its new yard. BVPer Share (S cts) 5.1 1.522.3 28.1   It has been up and running since Sept!ˉ07, four months ahead of schedule. PE (X) 127.3 79.466.4 40.1 The new yard is expected to add capacity of 20 vessels a year to the PE Pre Ex. (X) 127.3 79.466.4 40.1 group, more than double the old yard!ˉ output, bringing YZJ!ˉs total yearly P/Cash Flow (X) 121.3 76.463.4 37.5 EV/EBITDA (X) 128.9 75.056.6 30.8 capacity to 36 vessels. More interestingly, this also marked a significant Net Div Yield (%) 0.0 1.20.3 0.5 milestone for YZJ, being able to scale up the value chain to build larger P/Book Value (X) 52.4 171.711.9 9.5 vessels: containerships up to 6000TEU and bulk carriers of up to 300,000 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.2 CASHCASH CASH DWT, from <100,000 DWT at the old yard.  ROAE (%) 51.2 101.234.1 26.4 80% of its USD exposure is hedged. Given more than 80% of its cost is SHARE PRICE CHART denominated in RMB while receipts are all in USD, a 1% appreciation in S$ the Chinese currency could reduce its net earnings by 4.3%, without 3.00 hedging. Realising a weakening USD could badly hit its margins, YZJ has 2.50 adopted a hedging policy to manage 80% of its exposure through: (I) forward contract: to lock in the exchange rate for USD against RMB; and 2.00 (II) natural hedge: by increasing the use of imported material to 30% of 1.50 total purchase, from 20% previously. Hence, we believe the Group would 1.00 be rather resilient to the fluctuations in currency. Apr-07Jun-07Sep-07 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 100-Day MA   Locking in steel prices... As steel cost accounts for about 20% of vessels   value, a 1% rise in steel prices could lead to a 0.9% fall in net earnings. In AT A GLANCE view of the rising steel prices in China, YZJ has implemented a strategy to Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,301 lock in steel prices when signing new contracts. We believe this would 8,772 / 6,026 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) effectively mitigate the impact of rising steel cost. Major Shareholders
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