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Nikkei Outlook
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Aug-2013 14:56
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Above 13,600 On Stronger U.S, Euro StocksTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks finished higher Friday, with the Nikkei Stock Average climbing 295.38 points, or 2.21%, to end the day at 13,660.55. It is the first time for the benchmark index to close above the 13,600 line in four trading days. Overnight, U.S. and European stocks rose on the back of improved economic sentiment in China and the dollar strengthened against the yen. These factors later prompted buying on the Tokyo market. As Asian stocks traded firmly, the Nikkei average briefly rose more than 400 points, reaching the upper-13,700 line at one point. However, Asian stocks later lost steam, and selling pressure in Tokyo ahead of the weekend deflated the Nikkei average by the session's close. Trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange was 1.87 trillion yen. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Aug-2013 11:33
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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China July Foreign Direct Investment Up 24.13% On Year At $9.408bnBEIJING--China attracted $9.408 billion of foreign direct investment in July, up 24.13% from a year earlier, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement Friday. The figure was down from June's $14.4 billion, which was 20.12% higher from a year earlier. FDI in the January-July period rose 7.09% on year to $71.39 billion. Non-financial overseas direct investment rose 20% on year in the first seven months of the year. FDI is better than portfolio investment which is a passive investment in the securities of another country such as stocks and bonds. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
23-Aug-2013 10:06
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Japan stocks soar to lead rally in AsiaHONG KONG (MarketWatch) ? Asian stocks rallied Friday, cheering a rebound on Wall Street and upbeat German manufacturing data, with Japanese shares leading the charge on the back of a weakened yen. Among the major indexes, Japan?s Nikkei Stock Average jumped 2.5%, Australia?s S& P/ASX 200 gained 1%, and South Korea?s Kospi added 0.6%. The strong advance in Tokyo came as the U.S. dollar climbed toward the ¥99-level and after a Reuters survey showed local manufacturers? optimism rose to the highest level in three years. The advances also followed a higher finish for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which snapped a six-day losing streak overnight after a monthly average of jobless claims fell to a more than five-year low in the U.S. and as manufacturing Purchasing Managers? Index readings from China and Germany indicated expansion. ?The fact that the U.S. and European recoveries are improving (albeit fractionally) is a good foundation for global markets, but investors firstly have to get through the removal of the price distortions that QE created,? said Perpetual investment market-research chief Matthew Sherwood. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Aug-2013 15:21
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Strategist who correctly called rupee, rupiah collapseEmerging markets strategist Peter Redward correctly predicted a sharp slide in the Indian rupee and Indonesia rupiah and warned the selling isn't yet over for country's struggling to narrow current account deficits. In a research report published by the firm on September 4, 2012 entitled 'INR's vulnerability is rising, again', Redward projected a 12-month target for the rupee of 62 against the U.S. dollar. The currency hit that level last Friday. And, in August 13, 2012, the former Singapore-based Head of Emerging Asia research at Barclays Capital also forecast a slump in the Indonesia rupiah to 10,700 in 12 months, a level reached on Tuesday. Both were contrarian bets. When Redward Associates Ltd. ? the independent research firm he formed in 2011 after leaving Barclays ? released the forecasts last year, consensus estimates pointed to the India's currency strengthening to 53 and the rupiah to 9,200, Redward said. " The current account deficit," Redward noted in the September report, " is likely to remain a significant headwind for India for the foreseeable future." India is currently struggling with high inflation, slowing growth, a ballooning current account deficit at 4.8% of GDP and a record low currency. At the core of the problem ? foreign capital outflows precipitated by expectations cheap liquidity will come to an end with the September wind-down in the U.S. Federal Reserve's asset purchase program. Though capital inflows were robust at the time of Redward's September report, they remained " highly sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices, and global risk appetite. He added: " The mere stalling of capital inflows will renew pressure on rupee." Despite sporadic central bank intervention, the rupee sank to a new trough on Wednesday of 64.5450 to the dollar. A move in the rupee to 70.00 " is achievable," said Redward in emailed comments to CNBC. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Aug-2013 14:49
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Down On U.S QE Tapering Speculation, Asian LossesTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed lower Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average falling 59.16 points, or 0.44%, to end the day at 13,365.17, its lowest since June 27. The Dow Jones industrial average fell below the important 15,000 mark overnight on speculation that U.S. monetary easing may soon end. This trend carried over to the Tokyo market Thursday, fueling selling in the early going. Declines on most of the Asian stock markets also weighed down the benchmark index. However, after the selling ran its course, British bank HSBC's announcement that China's preliminary purchasing manager's index improved in August and the dollar's rise to the lower-98 yen range helped the Nikkei average move firmly, briefly sending the benchmark index higher into positive territory. The trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is estimated at 1.6 trillion yen, marking the ninth straight trading day under 2 trillion.
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hotokee
Veteran |
22-Aug-2013 12:18
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Sorry, it is only half a day left for trading Aug expired HSI warrants, so no chance. Will trade longer expiry types.. | |||||||||||||||
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hotokee
Veteran |
22-Aug-2013 12:16
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You are right. Too short a period. Only 5 trading days to expiry, though today is the last day for trading August-expiry HSI calls and puts.
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Tomique
Master |
22-Aug-2013 12:10
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But I think it is quite impossible to drop to 20,000 during such a short period of time. For the 20200 put, you can now buy at 1 pip for $100 for your 100 lots if you like. |
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hotokee
Veteran |
22-Aug-2013 12:04
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No. no, what you are saying is for the 21000 warrant that someone bought at 0.001 cent. Actually he gets more if the HSI fall to 20,000 before 29 Aug 2013. I am referring to the 20200 warrant. Cheers.
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Tomique
Master |
22-Aug-2013 11:59
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Yes, bro I believe this kind of situation is small risk with big reward,. I can see this morning someone bought 150 lots at 1 pip. May turn out to be good. As today 22/08/2013 is the last day for trading of Aug expiry HSI warrants, it give one last chance to win if you are lucky.. Hahaha.
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hotokee
Veteran |
22-Aug-2013 11:48
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x 1
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Anyone want to bet the HSI to fall to 20000 or below before the end of the month? It looks impossible to reach 20000 mark, so that is why looking to it reaching there is a bet. Now HSI Put 20200, last day trading today and no good quotes. 0.001/0.005 currently. If i bet with $200, I could place to buy 0.002 X100 lots. If the market do not drop to 20,000 by 29 Aug 2013, I lose $200. But if it really perform a drop to 20,000, wow, wow my $200 bet can get me this: $3,300 Profit 200 points ÷1000 (Ratio) x 0.165 (HK$:S$) X 100000 (100 lots) == S$3,300.00 But if it never go below the strike price of 20200, aiyo, I lose $$200.00 Any experts can comment whether this is bet is worth it or not? |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Aug-2013 10:31
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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China manufacturing swings to surprise growth:HSBCLOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- China's manufacturing activity is swinging to growth this month, according to a preliminary reading of HSBC's Purchasing Managers' Index, released Thursday. The " flash" reading of the China manufacturing PMI, compiled by HSBC and Markit, rebounded to a four-month high of 50.1 from an 11-month low of 47.7 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in sector activity, while one above 50 shows growth. The result was well above the consensus expectation for a 48 reading, as reported by Dow Jones Newswires. The subindex for new manufacturing orders also turned higher, though new export orders fell at a faster pace than in July. The closely watched employment subindex also showed a decline, though at a slower rate than in the previous month. The flash PMI is typically based on 85% to 90% of the total responses to the survey, with the final reading due out at the beginning of next month. " China's manufacturing growth has started to stabilize on the back of modest improvements of new business and output," wrote HBSC chief China economist Hongbin Qu in a statement accompanying the data. " This is mainly driven by the initial filtering through of recent fine-tuning measures and companies' restocking activities, despite the continuous external weakness," Qu wrote. Chinese stocks, which had been trading down ahead of the data, moved higher, with the Hang Seng Index paring a 0.9% loss to trade 0.4% down, while the Shanghai Composite swung to a 0.2% gain from a 0.2% deficit. The Australian dollar, often sensitive to the outlook in Australia's key trading partner, strengthened to 89.85 U.S. cents from 89.55 cents ahead of the numbers. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Aug-2013 09:30
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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One currency that's dodged the emerging market routWhile the violent selloff in emerging market currencies has spared few, there's one currency that has emerged from the storm unscathed: the Chinese yuan. Over the past month, the yuan has bucked the downdraft, rising 0.3% against the dollar - a stark contrast from peers such as the Indian rupee and Indonesia rupiah that have fallen between 7-7.5% over the same period amid escalating fears around the Federal Reserve winding down its monetary stimulus. The country's trade surplus and improving economic data are luring investors back into the currency, as concerns of a hard landing in the world's second largest economy fade. " China's in a stronger position than most emerging markets. It's current account (surplus) is a big thing, the economy is still well managed," said Nizam Idris, head strategist of fixed income and currencies at Macquarie, who sees the dollar-yuan pair strengthening to 6.0 as soon as the year-end, from 6.12 currently. China's current account - a broad measure of the country's trade with the world - maintained a surplus of $48.2 billion in the second quarter, up from $47.6 billion in January-March. " Even though (emerging markets) growth is slowing, economies that are undergoing reforms, like China, will be awarded a premium," he added, referring to the government's efforts to rebalance from an investment-led to consumption-driven economy and overhaul the country's financial system. Paul Mackel, head of Asian Currency Research at HSBC, said the better-than-expected July industrial production and imports data out of China have assured markets that capital outflows from the country may be slowing. While foreign exchange purchases declined by 24.5 billion yuan in July after falling 41.2 billion yuan in June - a sign that capital outflows have continued - Nomura says the trend of capital outflows may have reversed to one of moderate inflows in August. Another supporting factor, is the widening of the interest rate gap between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar as the People's Bank of China maintains a prudent monetary policy, said Mackel. " From here, further renminbi strength cannot be ruled out," he wrote in a recent report. One risk to this outlook, however, is a stronger-than-expected recovery in the U.S., said Idris, which could increase the U.S. dollar's appeal over the Chinese currency. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
22-Aug-2013 08:43
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Opens Lower On Wall St LossesTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Thursday, with the Nikkei Stock Average slipping more than 100 points and later moving below 13,300. Wall Street closed lower overnight on speculation about the Federal Reserve Board tapering off its QE. This negative sentiment carried over to the Tokyo market. Blue chips are falling across the board, with Toyota Motor Corp. falling to its recent low of 6,000 yen. Others on the decline include SoftBank Corp., Mazda Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Toshiba Corp., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. and Tokyo Electric Power Co. Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. is rising slightly. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Aug-2013 14:43
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Ends Modestly Higher On Asian GainsTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks closed slightly higher Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average rising 27.95 points, or 0.21%, to end the day at 13,424.33. Asian stock markets, including those in India and Indonesia, rose, bolstering investor sentiment. Investors also bought back Japanese stocks. The dollar's rise to the upper-97 yen range was another buying incentive. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Aug-2013 09:20
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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BOJ: Won't hesitate to ease further if downside risks increaseBank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda 黒 田 東 彦 has said he will not hesitate to adjust QE if downside risks from a planned sales tax or overseas economies increased, according to an interview in the Mainichi newspaper on Wednesday. Improvements in personal consumption and investment show that the BOJ's expanded QE is heading in the right direction, Kuroda was quoted as saying. Japan's economy isn't likely to slow if the government proceeds with a plan to raise the sales tax, and the government should take firm steps toward fiscal discipline, Kuroda was quoted as saying. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
21-Aug-2013 08:41
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Opens Higher Following Tuesday's Sell-OffTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened slightly higher Wednesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average climbing 34.90 points to begin the day at 13,431.28. Investors are buying back stocks after the benchmark index slid more than 300 points Tuesday. A pause in the rise in U.S. long-term interest rates is also prompting buying in early trade. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
20-Aug-2013 15:00
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Walau! Nikkei Ends At 2-Month Low On Weak Asian StocksTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks fell back sharply Tuesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 361.75 points, or 2.63%, to end the day at 13,396.38, the lowest point since June 27. The loss was the biggest since Aug. 7, when the benchmark index dropped 576 points. Stocks in Indonesia, Thailand and other parts of Asia fell sharply amid speculation over when the U.S. Federal Reserve Board will start cutting its bond purchases. Investors were selling Japanese stocks on concerns that weak Asian stocks would have a negative impact on the Japanese market. With stocks falling, the yen was purchased aggressively by risk-averse investors. |
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
20-Aug-2013 08:53
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Nikkei Opens Lower As U.S. Long Rates Hit 2-Yr HighTOKYO (NQN)--Tokyo stocks opened lower Tuesday, with the Nikkei Stock Average slipping 125 points to start the day in the 13,600 range. Selling surged after long-term interest rates in the U.S. rose overnight to the highest level in two years.
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guoyanyunyan
Elite |
19-Aug-2013 16:17
Yells: "uncertainty always exist" |
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Japan, China stocks end up India slides againHONG KONG (MarketWatch) ? Most Asian markets fell Monday on worries about the Federal Reserve?s policy outlook and rising U.S Treasury yields, while Indonesian and Indian stocks tumbled on local economic concerns. Mainland Chinese and Japanese shares ended higher after a choppy trading session on buying after a string of recent losses. Japan?s Nikkei Stock Average and the Shanghai Composite both ended the day 0.8% higher. Australia?s S& P/ASX 200 ended fractionally lower, South Korea?s slipped 0.1%, Taiwan?s Taiex shed 0.3% and Hong Kong?s Hang Seng Index was 0.4% lower in afternoon trading. The performance in Asia came after U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, handing the Dow Jones Industrial Average its worst weekly performance of the year. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to hit the highest level in two years amid jitters over monetary policy. ?Recent weakness in U.S. equity markets appears to have been largely about positioning for the Fed to make a first step in the process of winding back its QE in September,? said CMC Markets chief market analyst Ric Spooner. ?Given this market context, traders will focus on ... [Federal Reserve meeting minutes, due out Wednesday] for any clearer signs on the probability of a Fed move,? Spooner said. |
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