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Aztech: 1H FY06 Net Profit Up 75%
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sanye_2007
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26-Sep-2007 10:43
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Queuing..... to average down previous purchases. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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limhpp
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26-Sep-2007 10:42
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How much is the next support? Bought at very high price last month, wanted to average but don't know when? 
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myinvest
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26-Sep-2007 10:42
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Hi Stevento Sound advice indeed. Thanks. |
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shplayer
Elite |
26-Sep-2007 10:41
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Agree with stevento........watch for opportunities. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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stevento
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26-Sep-2007 10:35
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Hi, does it matter who throws. Do you consider it fair valuation at $0.40? If yes, invest. If not, just wait for the next support level to go in. |
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myinvest
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26-Sep-2007 10:33
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Can anyone enlighten me, please? If 0.4 is blocked and 0.395 is being nibbled at, who is supplying the 0.395? People who wants to throw would have thrown already in the past few days? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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stevento
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26-Sep-2007 10:31
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Very interesting play. Fundamentally, the order books are still healthy with sales order of $200 million dollars. Company is still aggressively trying to keep costs down in China. With the current interest, it offers opportunity to buyers to buy and hold it. What does an analyst do? Analyse and give their 2 cents worth of opinions. What is even more interesting, it comes from DBS Vickers. Jackson Tai has suddenly announced his plans to step down after the $2.4billions Sub Prime exposure by DBS. Let's Discern for yourself carefully the numbers presented here by the Aztech Balance Sheet, Sales Order, Profit, Costs of operation in China and PE. It seems quite healthy from the Balance sheet point of view. Cheers. "Any volatility provides an opportunity" |
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shplayer
Elite |
26-Sep-2007 10:28
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BBs queued to sell at 40 ct between 0831 and 0835 hrs......4 blocks of 1000 lots each and 1 block of 808 lots. I think they are shaking out weak holders and picking up anything below 40.ct. Watch the game. |
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shplayer
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26-Sep-2007 10:16
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Take note, currently AZ is trading at 39.5 ct and AZ War 11.5 ct => AZ War is trading at a PREMIUM of 58% to AZ. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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CWQuah
Master |
26-Sep-2007 10:05
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Check out the above insider trades over the last 5 yrs. Somehow they almost always deem it undervalued at 41.5-42c. One may ignore the very first entry by AVS investments in that this divestment was made way back in 2002 in the context of the market doldrums (post 9-11, tech bubble bust).So, it certainly doesn't make much sense for the internal players and BBs to 'panic dump' below their buy-in prices (they are in there for profits in the longer-term, normally big players don't cut losses - they buy cheap, and hold.... and hold... price drop, buy again... let go only when it chiongs). For now it looks like Aztech will probably dip a bit more before consolidation. Watch its moves for the next qtr. |
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shplayer
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26-Sep-2007 09:46
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ericsim, Sorry, I do not know why analysts do what they do. Perhaps there are some that are genuine but I would read their reports with a critical eye. Take for example the report just issued by DBS Vickers. They have projected a FY07 eps of 4.5c.....-5% from FY06 of 4.8c. This implies they expect 2H07 eps to be 2.31 c (vs 2H06 eps 3.15 c).....my opinion is this is this is too low. Also, the reason 2Q07 net profit growth was only 2.6% was due to the fact that 2Q06 have the benefit of a one off gain of $1.01 from sale of the AZ building. Stripping this gain, 2Q07 YoY growth would be 13.7% and 2H07 45.4%. Looking at today's trade, I think some BBs are trying to accumulate below 40 c with a block of 4000+ lots to sell at 40.0 ct. Just my opinion.....caveat emptor. Wonder whats happened to cheongwee (aka maniam). He has been very quiet. Has he sold off his holdings or is he licking his wounds for listening to his broker's call? |
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myinvest
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26-Sep-2007 09:37
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I think I would just let this counter go where it wants to go at this point (although still vested because I believe on its strong fundamentals). As of 30 June this year, Aztech has a strong book order of $202 million. Yesterday, they just announced another US$50 million contract gain. But as you can see blockage today is almost jammed at 0.4, meaning the BB wants the price to go down some more?? Heard that the analyst who reported on Aztech yesterday joined DBS 7 months ago. So not too sure how much he has followed the stocks since its SESDAQ days. The previous analyst has left for another brokerage firm. In my opinion, delay on the part of one of its key customers and new product launch does not translate to losses, only delay of profit (but again the figures were all based on forecasting and speculations). May not be this quarter, but next? Only company knows best. Also their entering into China recently is to increase their business and is not their sole business, which is everywhere. If currency is a problem, can DBS kindly downgrade all the counters that have dealings in China from their recommended buy to hold? Trade with caution. |
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ryantka
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26-Sep-2007 00:20
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FORECASTS
AND VALUATION FY Dec (S$ m) 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F Turnover 178.6 239.0 275.1 323.2 EBITDA 18.0 36.9 36.1 41.4 Pre-tax Profit 10.2 22.7 22.3 27.4 Net Profit 10.1 20.0 19.0 23.3 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 10.2 21.1 19.0 23.3 EPS (S cts) 2.5 4.8 4.5 5.6 EPS Gth (%) 57 89 (5) 23 Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.5 4.8 3.7 4.5 Net DPS (S cts) 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 BV Per Share (S cts) 16.1 19.4 22.9 27.1 PE (X) 17.0 9.0 9.5 7.7 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.3 5.6 5.7 4.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 11.1 4.6 4.8 3.8 Net Div Yield (%) 1.2 3.3 3.2 3.9 P/Book Value (X) 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 16.9 27.5 21.5 22.3 Based on this forecast by DBS vickers, 2007 Full year net profit after expenses and tax should be 19 million. resulting in a diluted Earning per share of 3.7 cent. Using the share price before dropping of 43 cents, (.43 / .037) = 11.62 This P/E ratio still seems very healthy and we have confirmed that the sales was caused by the downgrade of rating by DBS. Therefore the drop should be a case of panic selling by speculators combined with the work of shortists. If there was any major selling by BBs, they would be required to report it to SGX, but no news so far except the releasing of shares by Credit Agricole Asset Management S.A last week which had started the wave. In short, short term traders should stay away, long term traders should not worry. The company is still making money. Just my opinion. Caveat Emptor :) |
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Manikamaniko.
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25-Sep-2007 23:43
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Aztech's fall today is frightening... Just as I expected it to back down to the previous floor of 0.42 and bounce from there, it went straight through that floor to 0.40! |
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yuchao
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25-Sep-2007 23:04
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Personally I am not a FA kinda person although something I do do it. Reference to Shplayer's analysis and based on what I know abt BB, normally, the BB will not only want to see growth, but also the rate of growth. Meaning if (example) they will have to grow bigger than their previous FY. If it's not too big a difference (drop) then it's not too bad, but if it's a big difference like this one, then shplayer have definitely shed the light on this situation. TA-ly speaking, we should see Aztech fall even more with it closing down in large volume. Experienced traders may chance a short on this counter. |
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ericsim
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25-Sep-2007 22:23
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Hi shplayer, based on your analyse, what puzzle me is that why some broker firm still recommend buy call (some even upgrade their TP from 70+ to 90+) after the 2H result out? can enlighten me? |
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shplayer
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25-Sep-2007 22:06
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Now that the furor of the past 2 days has subsided, I?d like to make a post on the issue. If the recent ruckus has upset anyone, I do apologise. I would also like to thank forumers who posted their support.
As I said in an earlier post, SJ is the home of Kee Jang and his associates and we are his guests. It is rude for us to quarrel in the home of our host. In this instance, I had no intention of picking a quarrel with anyone but I just posted my point of view on a call made by cheongwee. Unfortunately, he could not accept alternative views and launched a barrage of insinuations and disparaging remarks on me. To defend my position, and to highlight to other forumers the fallacies of some of his calls, I had to put my points through strongly.
For the sake of forumers who may have been confused over the situation, and also the persistent downward trend of Aztech, I have done some FA on this.
Please refer to table below.
As you can see, AZ has enjoyed very healthy topline and bottomline growth (50+% to 141%) up to 1Q 07. Their profit growth in 2Q07 was a mere 2.6%. This must have shaken the BBs resulting in the downgrading by DBS. Bear in mind that 2Q07 results were announced on 30 Jul07 ? almost 2 mths ago?.this means the BBs were already aware of the problems and withheld the report till they have unloaded their holdings. So, dare I say it was very irresponsible or very ignorant of a certain forumer to make calls without being able to substantiate it.
Forumers who have been caught in this unexpected turn of events, there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. My estimate of FY07 eps is about 5.7 to 6.0 cts??(their 2H is usually stronger than 1H) .NAV should come in at about 22.5 to 23.0 cts. Final divvy should be at least 0.75 ct TE making total divvy of 1.5 ct TE.
Based on the above estimates and today?s closing price of 40 ct, P/E is 6.7X to 7X. P/B is 1.74X to 1.78X. Yield 3.75%.
Currently I am not vested but personally, if AZ can maintain a growth of 15% to 25%, the P/E and P/B is very attractive at current levels. I will certainly be keeping it on my radar and perhaps take some position. However, watch out for 3Q07 results to confirm there is no further deterioration of earnings.
Caveat emptor??perhaps cheongwee, aka ?maniam? would like to comment??? |
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ericsim
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25-Sep-2007 21:44
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you need to go to SGX website to convert Russian to English ...haha 
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go_francis
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25-Sep-2007 21:32
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Wa Nowadays SGX published in Russian Language. |
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ericsim
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25-Sep-2007 21:15
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oops...don't know what happen. pls refer to SGX website - http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/0357d11048060bb84825735f0028e25b/57008cb9acbe881348257361003c3b23?OpenDocument | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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