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JurTech
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Gallen
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31-Mar-2006 10:38
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Jur Tech cheong ahhhhhh!!!!! Lai lai, come support http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com |
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Gallen
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31-Mar-2006 08:25
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Extracted from my blog [URL=http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com]http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com[/URL] Please remember to support my blog :) [B]Fundamental Anaylsis[/B] Share price has been tumbling in the wake of numerous analysts trimming earnings estimates for 2006 on worries over JurTech's hard disk business. Kim Eng for example forecasted earnings to come in at $73.1m compared to $66.5m in 2005, cutting recommendation to Hold and slashed target to $1.79. JP Morgan maintains outperform recommendation, Morgan Stanley maintains outperform too but cuts earnings estimations by $3m. DBS also maintains outperform recommendation and cuts earnings estimates to $79.2m. For me, I have used $78m in net profits for 2006 forecast, not going to change this unless there is new guidance from management or 1Q FY06 results disappoint. Management's outlook in its press release after FY05 results was: "Expect volume growth in wireless product to continue to outpace that of HDD and PC Peripherals. Expect to penetrate new product segments. In view of the favourable outlook, we expect our performance in FY06 to be better than that of FY05." New plants in Brazil and Suzhou, China are expected to boost revenues. Hard Disk business made up 16.5% of revenues for 4Q FY05. There are also fears of customer concentration (Motorola) which is understandable, however, Jurong Tech has stated that it is securing new customers for FY06. I cannot comprehend why there are so much worries about hard disk business for Jurong Technologies, in fact, I think if Jurong Tech can eliminate its hard disk business and use the capacity for wireless communication products, it would be a better deal since the hard disk is facing increasing competition from Nand flash memory (which are registering very steep price declines). I just feel that this is an excuse to push down prices so that the smart money can accumulate at low valuations. In fact, you might probably see upgrades to recommendations after they have finished their accumulation. .............continued at my blog |
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Gallen
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30-Mar-2006 20:28
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Extracted from my blog http://kelongstocks.blogspot.com Please remember to support my blog :) [B]Technical Analysis[/B] Chart shows jurong tech first breaching the 1 year uptrend line (thick dark blue line) on 10 Nov 2005, recovering to close above this uptrend line (forming a top in the process( and then breaching it again on 09 Dec 2005. Prices made a new low of $1.62 (on news of Seagate's acquisition of Maxtor) and were trapped in a symmetrical triangle (see thick light blue lights). The triangular consolidation was resolved and prices broke out on the downside on 15 Mar 2006. This breakout also resulted in JurTech closing below the EMA 50 and EMA 200, a bearish signal. Prices have been tumbling without respite since then and breached the supports at 1.62, $1.58, $1.55 and $1.54. Prices hit an intra-day low of $1.50 before rebounding (probably short covering). Supports: $1.40 (resistance turned support) and $1.35 (another resistance turned support). Resistances: $1.54/$1.55, $1.58, $1.62, $1.68/$1.69 (all support turned resistance) Indicators are very bearish at the moment, confirming current price action. RSI hit a 4 year low (20.3 today, 5 year lows were 14.8 and 8.1), Stochastics in deeply oversold territory (fast stochastics at 5.1) and MACD deep into negative territory although still higher than prior lows in Nov and Dec 2005. ............... continued at my blog |
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