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SPC
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elfinchilde
Elite |
27-Jan-2007 19:53
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eh..chinkiasu, relax leh....i said the support is 4.20, but i also said the trading range in the next few weeks is btwn 4.34 to 4.5... |
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chinkiasu
Master |
27-Jan-2007 17:35
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thanks livermore.. I think so too... we wait for the action next week, meanwhile have a good weekend folks! | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
27-Jan-2007 15:28
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Don't worry about all the negative comments on this counter. As long as crude oil price stays at even US$50 a barrel, that is good enough:). | ||||
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chinkiasu
Master |
27-Jan-2007 15:21
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elfin, just read your post and got a lump in my throat.... :-( u had given me hope (your said 4.4 few days ago) and then I got dashed... ur reasoning seems sound (altho I question the "psychological" price barrier at 4.2 cos I am bias/vested), but I will hang on and wait see till end of next week...:-? :-) my hope is that SPC core business is more downstream (a refining coy) then upstream (a oil explorer) and US SPR is buying up distillates... and for the chill to hit wall street a little longer.. btw it is 0 deg F (factoring wind chill)there now.. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
27-Jan-2007 14:07
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ok, just doing some calculations here. There's divvy included so you need to include that in your pricing too. EPS for SPC is 55c. if you've noticed, the psychological PE ratio for SPC is actually 7x. Which means SPC technical and psychological support is at 0.55 x 7 + 0.35 =$4.20. Sentiment is starting to change for positive on this stock, but apologies, UBS has downgraded oil from US$65 to $60 per barrel. Perhaps a PE of 8 is too optimistic. I take a count of 7.5x which gives total final of ~$4.48. so if nothing changes, taking in a graph shift to the left to account for slow sentiment shift to positive as well i'd expect SPC to trade between 4.34 to 4.50 in the coming weeks. It needs to break 4.48 to have a chance of going higher. where it has a realistic chance of going higher is in May before the div is released. then you'd expect upside spike of abt 20-28c from whatever its current price then is. Because it'll hit investors then that this stock is giving out divvies and it's undervalued comparative to its peers. I'd put max then at 4.78. pls note i use price targets only as a guide, and don't make actual buy/sells on the fixed price/range i call; it all depends on the trend at the time. SPC is notoriously volatile to sentiment and politics. |
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giantlow
Master |
27-Jan-2007 12:12
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highly unlikely scenario, ZhouYu but if the prices realli slide to $30, the entire oil related industry including oil exploration companies and rig builders will be in trouble cos if oil slides below $40, the cost of exploration and extraction will cost more than the potential profits basically, SPC needs strong oil prices and a re-rating from some brokerage house to pick up |
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ZhouYu
Member |
27-Jan-2007 12:02
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chinkiasu
Master |
27-Jan-2007 11:21
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oh, I didnt realise that's FA... but anyway, I just have to take a position i.e wait till next week then decide.. meanwhile keep my fingers crossed.. kilroy.. you have to do your own sums... dont let me influence you... good luck.. |
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giantlow
Master |
27-Jan-2007 10:50
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chinkiasu, based on what you say, thats FA not convoluted reasoning | ||||
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chinkiasu
Master |
27-Jan-2007 02:01
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more or less gut feel, and of course can be wrong... but also some reasoning as follows: pls see my earlier post current about 4.40, market correction about 1.4%, if market recovers partially say 1.0%, we get 4.44... also, some allowance for cold weather talk because of cold spell which will hit the wall street guys i.e oil prices should go up some perhaps a dollar.... on top of that is the announcement of the doubling of US SPR: this is perception for the next week... but to me the key is that fundamentals of SPC is very good, at 4.5, pe is only 8.1.. if we compare with Keppel Group (current PE 24.2) I think SPC should be getting pe of 10.0 (low estimate) which means the price should at least 5.53.. fact is I dont see SPC having less profits going forward than this years result.. all it needs is for some analysts to post it in a logical fashion, I think the market should see some sense.. pls take the above as my convoluted reasoning .. not TA.. |
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giantlow
Master |
27-Jan-2007 01:58
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oil ended up on early morning trade, crossing the 55 dollars mark hopefully, 56 can be broken by closing |
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KiLrOy
Master |
26-Jan-2007 23:56
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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15:50 US TECHS: Commodities, Gold Trends Bullishly, Oil Stalls] Boston, January 26. Gold weakness today will not damaged the bullish signal on Trend Intensity, See 8033 , as prices remain within an upsloping channel that began early this month. Also, prices are holding above the 8-day simple moving average after crossing above it on January 12. The most significant concern is the top of the range that has formed during the last three months at $655.5--that level was tested and rejected yesterday and once in early December. A sustained break above that level is needed to validate the bullish trend signal. Below the 8-day at $637.5 would neutralizexpectations. Oil is much weaker as it sits just above its lows of the last couple years after recently completing a strong bearish trend that lasted most of this month. Thus far, the bounce from the $51.31 low has not reached the 38% retracement of the drop from the December high that sits at $56.89. This suggests that the stalls of the last few days are a correction within a larger move to lower prices, not a bullish reversal. Further stalls below $56.89 should eventually lead to renewed weakness and a break below $51.31, but a break above $56.89 would improve the outlook and point to a test of 62% retracement at $60.35. Chris.L.Moore@Thomson.com |
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giantlow
Master |
26-Jan-2007 23:04
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looking at the charts, SPC should be consolidating at about 4.42 to 4.44 before resuming an upward trend | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:39
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My lots are small compared to you guys:). Don't wish to over commit....... | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:37
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I heard they gave 33c per share as dividend last year. This year it is 35c. There are not many companies that is able to do that.......... | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:35
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As crude oil price goes up, oil product price must go up more compared to crude oil price i.e it should be about 1.5 times. |
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KiLrOy
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:26
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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chinkiasu, pray tell your conviction on why the price will raise to 4.50 by next week as I hate to sell a winning position.. | ||||
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giantlow
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:17
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i am left with 500 lots of SPC warrents with an average price of 5cents. basically, SPC fortunes are closely tied to oil prices. with the cold weather expected to get worse and with Iran and N Korea joining forces, oil prices can only head upwards |
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chinkiasu
Master |
26-Jan-2007 22:09
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Oops, sorry Singaporegal, I got it wrong. Looking back at the post, i just realised that it was Elfinchilde who said it would hit 4.44. But I had noted you have observed on 24 Jan that " Volumes are just slightly above average today .. could be uptrending.." And I thot the observation very insightful (I happen to believe (my sense)they will be an uptrend soon).. and as such I decided to hang on... Anyway, I do appreciate very much, your occasional inputs/contributions from your reading of the charts. I find them really useful particularly as I am completely blur blop on this.. |
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chinkiasu
Master |
26-Jan-2007 21:42
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giantlow, about 600lots left. U leh? I am convinced that SPC will hit 4.5 next week, question is will the warrant follow suit... | ||||
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