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things every retail investor/trader should know
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jchongll
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22-Aug-2008 11:29
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elf... mmm... a meeting room in a condo is good for your session? must check arnd and see if anyone can help to book... heee.. i will definitely be first in line to q for the sessions.. 
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singaporegal
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22-Aug-2008 11:06
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Lack of BB movement means that these funds managers have no idea what to do! Sometimes I really wonder why people give lots of money to these fund managers to "manage" their funds. Most of these funds have trouble even outperforming the index during boom times. |
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pointer
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21-Aug-2008 20:43
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"Globally, something isn't right somewhere: when markets are at this low, by right, the funds come in to buy (trading or longterm). yet they're not buying, and in some counters, they're actually selling. when fundamental investors sell, that's another red flag up. " Maybe the market is not low enough yet...or "somebody" is planning something bigger for all. |
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iPunter
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21-Aug-2008 18:57
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She has a flair for analysis... hehehe... |
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trader88.sg
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21-Aug-2008 18:22
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Elf, You make it sound so eery.  |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
21-Aug-2008 17:40
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was actually toying with the idea as a lark but now seriously thinking about it, jchongli. the demand appears to be greater than i thought. perhaps one main session followed by monthly practical workshops, so ppl can come and go as they please/need....i dunno. anyone can volunteer a location? i'll let you attend lessons for free then. plus align your portfolio for you. hehehehhe. on a more serious note: trading updates for today: to say market is bad is an understatement. they're trying to shore up the china counters; rather unexpectedly. yl, yzj, cosco, etc. there was a 9,000 lot buyup of yzj at 595 this afternoon. Yet traders have already priced in a further 300 or so pt fall in the HSI, which means they're expecting further collapse ahead. So the buying today (only the china counters) may have been done by their own directors, in a bid to avoid margin calls. Which also means this is what we need to watch out for in the coming days: forced selling by their own directors if it hits below a critical pt. Globally, something isn't right somewhere: when markets are at this low, by right, the funds come in to buy (trading or longterm). yet they're not buying, and in some counters, they're actually selling. when fundamental investors sell, that's another red flag up. On another front, the UJ has tanked: see if 10860 will hold. Bottomline: something's cooking, if you watch the global interplay of money. My guess is a major US institution is likely going to collapse. Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae. Take your pick. My bet is on Freddie Mac. til the market stabilises, it's all hands off the table. will be on holiday next week. cheers. |
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jchongll
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20-Aug-2008 13:58
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sorry, was out for meeting whole afternoon yesterday... elf... that's a great deal of good information here!!  I think i really need more lessons on chart reading... any chance you organising any seminars/lessons soon??
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Aug-2008 12:05
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note: pls do not treat any upswing as sustainable unless proven otherwise: one day of upswing after three days of down is natural, not necessarily a "rally". If you refer to the STI channel chart posted below: even in a down channel, there'll be natural waves up and down. Fact of it is that we entered a downtrend since May 08. If you mean a confirmed downtrend, that's Jun 08. But for it to be a change to uptrend, critical levels must be broken. if it doesn't, stay light and focus on longterm accumulation. Don't go chasing after volatile counters if you aren't technically skilled/have the time to watch intraday. Most bears last two years. this is early days yet. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Aug-2008 11:44
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will be away whole of next week. so for those wanting good counters to sit in (long term ie > 6 mths), ideas you can consider and their strikes (ref to their charts as backing): pls adjust strikes as per willingness to enter; sometimes, if you know you're going for longterm, don't quibble the few cents and miss the entire boat. oh and pls, DCA, not whack all at one time. sembcorp industries: buy at <4.15. not more than 4.25. 4.1 is good if you can get it. prep for 3.84 lowest. They've been shoring it up 409 lowest. SPC: sub-5.55. note it is a volatile counter as it's a trading stock too. Kepcorp: prep for sub 10 lowest, tho 10.2 is a good buy. Of the banks, i still prefer OCBC. If there is a rebound coming, my guess is that capland will be the fastest to rebound. will be volatile cos it's very much sold down. note capland is a blue but i actually classify it as a trading stock more than a fundie stock. yah i know, expensive stocks. but blues will move faster. Plus if it's down, at least you got the dividends. of the reits: office reits. MP and suntec are nice. Ref to charts for their lowest. Note: SIA is due for a breakout; my guess is down. Gold is always good for incubation. Because when global economies are in a recession, and fiat is in a race to the bottom, one of the havens is gold. Note the current rise of the USD is not because the US is recovering, it's because other areas--Eurozone and Asia--are going down 'worse' than it. (-_-")...fibo support gives 717, 629 and 540 lowest. I still maintain that upside (next year 1-2Q) is likely in the 900s. only two pennies i like: for incubation, not scalping. asiatic and stamfordland. Can be bought anytime now; the former is close to NAV, the latter is below. Very strong FA backing and growth evident even in this global recession. Part of the infrastructure theme livermore was talking about, tho they're in different sectors and countries. Ref to SGX website for their ARs. They're what i call snooze counters. Park in, look once every three months, collect dividend--at current prices, it's 7% and 10% div yield resp for them. --------- the trading plays will be the china plays and the commod-linked plays. up or down will be very volatile. So newbies, wld actually advise not to touch them. No sense being penny-wise pound-foolish. When overall vol is low, practically halved or a third, the risk is more than doubled. Consider if you actually want to take such risk when there in front of you are solid counters offering 10% in dividend yield alone. cheers. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Aug-2008 00:48
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since i'm practicing my channel drawing skills... for those who were wondering why some other traders here and i have been saying downtrend; and why i had earlier said that 2,800 was just a pivot, and either direction likely, tho bias is for down (this was last week on this thread). believe the charts will speak for themselves. 1st chart = STI 6 mth daily chart. 2nd chart = STI 5 year monthly chart. watch how the channels are drawn, and where the supports are derived (why the figure of 2,740-2,750 has been bandied about on other threads here as a support). note: this is not to say that STI will indeed tank to 2,400. possibility does not necessarily mean reality. nites. elfie needs to sleep. 
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elfinchilde
Elite |
20-Aug-2008 00:16
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waverly, that count was for intraday; just a rough estimate using market depth and px. tradechancellor, depends on what you mean by risky. a proper management system is needed, for sure, and because of its speed, you have to be more disciplined. risk/reward ratio 1: 2.5--i meant that you go for the kind of trade where for every pip you stand to lose, you stand to gain 2.5. so a simple thing like a stop loss of 20 pips for a return of 50 pips, for instance. This kind of ratio is much, much better than trading stocks now. esp since most of the stocks now are only intraday: if we were to look at patterns: the only true rises of the past two months were essentially capitaland (that ramp from 580 to 630), biosensors, and the CPOs: which as i said, would not last beyond three days. quantum seed fund: oops, i had meant that to be your 250k capital. i assume you meant you wanted 250k so that you can trade full time. (?) startup for forex is much lower. if you're playing with mini pips, 2k to 5k is sufficient. btw, to those who msg me: apologies if my reply sometimes sound a bit abrupt/curt; if i reply during the day, normally that means i'm watching stocks, forex and a couple of forums at the same time. hehe. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
19-Aug-2008 21:02
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It is said that currency trading can be the vehicle to make millions easily...
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TradeChancellor
Veteran |
19-Aug-2008 19:09
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Elf, i don't know much about forex but am keen to learn to learn. Is it riskier than stocks since the risk reward ratio is 1:2.5? You mentioned "quantum seed fund", is it the start up capital for forex? Yes i agree that the current market is extremely volatile, so I'm actually eyeing buying stocks of NASDAQ and SGX, which i feel price movement is more correlated to their respective indices, a bit like the ETFs. But so far I've invested only in NASDAQ itself as i belive it has more potential at the moment.. Just discovered that NASDAQ was such a national asset that Congress had to give approval when DUBAI Bourse acquired 20% of its 200million shares. However, DUBAI bourse has got a limit of only 5% voting rights. Did anyone go to the invest fair at suntec on sat or sun (16&17Aug)? Saw that vietnamese brokerage company AULAC securities is going set up shop here and they are advising us on hw to get the paper work done without goin to vietnam. AULAC is currently getting acquainted with singapore law while concurrently planning to set up base in singapore. We'll soon be able to trade the vietnamese market too. |
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waverly
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19-Aug-2008 11:26
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elfindchilde, how do you count how much to dive a coutner and raise a counter.. ?
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elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Aug-2008 11:25
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oops. my mistake, hehe. no prob jchongli. yes, you must know TA very well. Alternatively: have someone set up the system, and just follow the rules. A lot of people (including meee!  ) will lose in forex because you tend to watch, get impatient, and jump for entry, even when there's no signal. 
here: for those interested in forex: check out the aptly named babypips.com http://www.babypips.com/ and of course, forex factory. http://www.forexfactory.com/ news release times are very impt for forex traders, because they can influence large movements. eg, the US NFP (non farm payrolls) is crazy to play. You can go from (+_+) to (-_-) in like, 5 min. try a demo account: http://www.igmarkets.com.sg/ click on the right-hand side of screen, free demo, and sign up. you get a 2 weeks acct to try out. 
and btw, i'm likely making it sound easier than it is. Note that in forex, it's very easy to lose money. You really MUST have tech skills, strict stop losses and DISCIPLINE. General advice is to go small, don't be too ambitious at the start: try demo acct, then mini pips (1/10th of a regular pip), then standard lots. What you need is a model that works, from there, you can just scale up or down accord to requirements. |
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waverly
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19-Aug-2008 11:23
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thanks elfinchilde. didnt look at this thread for a while and it has grown so much
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jchongll
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19-Aug-2008 11:17
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elfinchilde, you are too humble... your explanation quite pro oredi... i have zero knowledge with charts so dun really know how to see... so please bear with my ignorance... 
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jchongll
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19-Aug-2008 11:08
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elfinchilde... thanks for the explanation.. your explanation very clear!! finally understand what's pip... often heard in forums.. in summary, to trade forex, we must first have a good TA understanding first rite?
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elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Aug-2008 10:56
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continuing from post below.... so eg of a forex chart/trade, which is a live one i made last night to this morn: the EU pair (i like to shorten it, first letter = euro, second = USD): You can see from the hour chart that it's going down. So what you do is to short it at the channel top. i shorted at the point i marked out. Opted to take profit just now; not because its downtrend is ended ( i expect it to go down further), but because i'm going out later. hehehe. it's likely up for now anyway. So shorted at 14736, take profit 14690 => 46 pips for one standard lot. => profit of US$460 overnight. risk was a stop of 20 pips, so risk/reward for this trade was about 1: 2. (sorry, typo in earlier post: 1 pip for the EU pair = US$10). much cheaper than stocks nowadays. (-_-")... 
note: my forex skills are not up to par yet; so pls don't take me as a master on it. my channel lines may not be rightly drawn. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
19-Aug-2008 10:44
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hullo jchongli, may i refer you to the forex junction thread. techsys is whom i'd consider to be the resident master in forex here. hehe. will attempt an intro though.... to be precise: forex is more for traders, not for investors. FDs are one aspect of it i guess: invest in the bank, and take the differential of the exchange rate. At a basic level, be it forex or FD: what you do is to long one currency against another, because you expect that the first currency (the base currency) will rise against the other. When you short the currency, it means you expect the base currency to drop against its pair. Eg, say the Euro/USD pair. Base currency = euro. So if you expect the euro to strengthen, or the USD to weaken, you'll long the pair. If you expect the euro to weaken, or the USD to strengthen, you'll go short on the pair. Each movement is known as a 'pip'. The value of that pip is on the 2nd currency. So if you play the Euro/USD, one pip is worth 1 USD. if you play the US/yen, 1 pip = 1,000 yen. To play forex though: You must have good technical skills. It's all about charts. You'll have to set up a system, alt find someone who is willing to give you their setting.
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The tags are different, basically.
But as small fries, that's why TA is all the more impt for survival.
