Local shipping industry began to pick up industry inflection point is approaching

Monday Capesize freight rates continue to rise, more than a week ago, nearly 20%

Freight revenue has exceeded $ 30,000 per day mark, or even hit a few years before the arrival of the high.

Expect the upward trend means that the market for the strengthening of the people are concerned, they will be delighted to find that the same vessel in the same period in 2012 tariffs of only $ 5,900 / day.

The bets are still two people may be more willing to see, Panamax sector tariffs currently only $ 10,600. This means that, if it is a foregone Strongbow capesize rally the crossbow, is a small boat will catch up.

Capesize:

Australia to China route activity is not high, but in Dampier (Dampier) to Qingdao route, Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) is Zosco Hong kong wheel (built in 2010) to pay tariffs of up to $ 11.95 per ton, which Concerned about the recent trend of so many shipowners rejoice.

In addition, Richmark $ 12.27 per ton from Cargill (Cargill) lease a used Western Australia to Qingdao route.

In Saldanha Bay (Saldanha Bay) to Qingdao route, Anglo American to $ 12.27 per ton leased Navios Joy Wheel (built in 2013).

Cargill (Cargill) was 179,800 tons bit Besiktas wheel (built in 2011) to pay $ 27,000 for daily rent for from Dunkerque (Dunkirk) starting trans-Pacific routes.

Panamax:

Augustea to 12 month lease a Chinese ship - 75,700 tons bit Vivian wheel (built in 2002), on rent for $ 11,650.

75,400 tons bit Navios North Star wheel (built in 2005) to $ 12,000 per day leased for six to nine months.

PCL to $ 15,000 of 93,400 tons daily rent sign bit MBA Rosaria wheel (built in 2011), for China and India to Australia routes.

Cargill (Cargill) signed a 82,300 tons bit Coal Hunter wheel (built in 2006) for the SW Pass to Singapore and Japan routes, rental of $ 16,500 / day plus $ 650,000 in additional subsidies.

Louis Dreyfus new date for the North Pacific routes to rent 76,600 tons Tim bit Perani wheel (built in 2008), on rent for $ 11,250.

Handymax:

Western Bulk routes to Morocco to India leased 57,300 tons bit Butinah wheel (built in 2011), rent of $ 15,000 per day.

Amplified by Chinese demand for iron ore, the international shipping market, Capesize since mid-June this year, unilateral rise in rents wave higher than the wave. As of September 9, the four routes on the capesize average rent exceeded $ 25,000, compared with more than 5000 U.S. dollars in early June, shot up by more than four times, a record since last January 3 to 21 months new high.

In the capesize market led, driven by global shipping freight index (BDI) easily crossed one thousand point mark, soared to 1,478 points, compared with an increase of 85% in early June, the highest level in nearly two years. But other ship rose a lesser extent, in which rent is $ 8,836 Panama, only the relatively early in June rose 10%, while the Handysize market rents basically in origin, recovery is not obvious, a drag on the overall level of bulk freight.

China imported iron ore to make large-scale demand for Capesize blowout, once again the achievements of the international dry bulk shipping market. This year, the domestic steel prices continued to rise, steel prices in the country in July first time in years, " turn around" , capacity gradually released, ore demand.

According to the " Xinhua - China iron ore price index" shows that by the end of June, China iron ore port stocks (coastal 25 Hong Kong) was 75.28 million tons, while in July China's iron ore imports 73.14 million tons, representing an increase of 10.84 million in June ton, August and imported 69.01 million tons, an increase of 10.5%.

Although imports of super-normal, but the inventory is not increased but decreased. As of the end of August, the number of port stocks 74.75 million tons, compared with the end of June also decreased by 53 million tons. All these show that the recent steel enterprises demand for imported ore tremendous energy, moving from the first half of tepid, gradually becoming strong.

At present, the international iron ore offer has risen to $ 137 / ton relatively high, three international mining seize opportunities, will ship strong market enthusiasm for football boat, causing tension Capesize demand, with domestic sales of steel market, " Golden September and Silver October," the arrival Capesize expected to continue strong.

Chinese iron ore demand related to the sustainability of the shipping market in the future trend. From the recent price, mid-August steel prices have started to touch the top down, while iron and steel factory operating rate rises, stocks will rise, the price decline pressure behavior.

National Bureau's latest statistics show that China's crude steel production in August, 66.28 million tons, an increase of 12.8% monthly average daily production of 2,138,100 tons of crude steel, growth of 1.24%, ending March downward. January-August, China's total crude steel production of 521 million tons, an increase of 7.8%. 480 million tons of pig iron production in the country over the same period, an increase of 6.6%.

At the same time, environmental issues in North China's iron and steel enterprises for production release pressures. Recently, in response to Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas this winter weather heavy pollution, the State Council has indicated will increase accountability efforts, ineffective work, performance of their duties as a result of the absence of heavy pollution weather last three days, and will be the main leaders and leaders in charge accountable according to law. Once the policy is strictly implemented, iron and steel enterprise production release will be inhibited, ore demand may cool down, so the probability of a larger outlook tariff adjustment.

In recent days, the shipping industry an important economic indicators BDI Baltic Dry Index continued to soar since the beginning of this year, or over 130%, the shipping industry to pick up a certain extent, indicates that signs of economic rebound, the BDI rose also lead to " see the shipping industry bottom " sound. However, some experts pointed out that the BDI Overall, only stage rise, enterprises also remain cautious. On the other hand, ships, port industry also did not show significant signs of recovery, there are shipyards said that now the shipbuilding industry have been busy, " transformation" , shipyards are manufactured offshore boats swarmed the next 3 to 5 years is the industry washing licensing phase.

Shipping industry: BDI rose over 60% for nearly a month does not mean that " revived"

Since September BDI index has surged 43.63 percent, nearly a month or up to 62.46%. BDI index rose, the industry generally concerned about whether this ushered in the shipping industry inflection point. But brokers noted that in the past six years, every freight rebound, there will be " shipping stocks bottomed out" point of view, but the freight index and stock prices as a deflated ball, despite a number of record breaking rally but ultimately lows.

A shipping company insiders, ever rising tariffs, some previously archived transportation tariffs will accelerate into the market to suppress short-term index trend does not explain what the current overhang of excess capacity in the market, the key will have to see the demand for the fourth quarter. " Now the most important thing is to ensure profitable shipping companies, and is the continuous development, so take are flexible business strategy, cost control stripping loss assets."

In this regard, the shipping expert Chen Yi said that this year the domestic steel prices continue to rise, " golden nine silver ten" is the domestic steel market, the traditional replenishment time, the timing of this year rose earlier, the situation is more rapid, but overall just phased increases.

In fact, BDI index speculation overseas funds have gradually become profitable way, Haitong Securities analyst BDI gold incense that short term financial attributes may have been beyond its maritime property, BDI Baltic miners rally also benefited from long-term transport Price FFA on profits. Zheng Wu Guoxin Securities analyst, said: " We have not been raised in recent years any shipping stocks rating, obviously this is not the typical style of the seller." For investors, often wait until tariffs rose only cause for concern, but because of lack of valuation benchmark, buying and selling of the time difficult to grasp.

Guoxin Securities Statistics data show that the tariffs from the past decade shows that 90% capacity utilization is the shipping sector performance and stock price elasticity threshold. The dry bulk shipping market vessel capacity utilization rate is only about 83% capacity utilization ship oil transport market is only about 82%, Cargo carriage market in Europe and America routes annual average rate of only about 85%.

Shipping industry: orders although warmer but concentrated in large enterprises

Yesterday, the reporter interviewed a number of shipbuilding business people, the industry is expected to pick up still too early to talk about now, and now the industry is still very cautious, enterprises are in rush orders grab food to eat, some small private shipyards due to financial, orders and other issues on the verge collapse. A large shipyard, told reporters that the shipping industry is expected to return to normal levels in 2015, while the shipbuilding industry will be more later.

Guangdong, a major shipyard said that recently some foreign customers to negotiate orders , but mainly concentrated in special vessels ship, the construction of the company's current booked next year, but most are marine vessels. " At present, very few orders dry bulk carriers, shipping companies have excess capacity can not easily make a lot of orders, we currently have twenty-three dry bulk carriers, do not do after delivery."

Some analysts pointed out that the dry bulk orders less, partly because of excess capacity in the market, dry bulk carriers constructed low threshold, some domestic shipyard is the high energy consumption, high operating costs of dry bulk carriers.

Data show that the new access orders will continue to maintain upward trend this year, a substantial increase in the ship owner clients in the context of a ~ August new orders accumulated 72.73 million DWT, an increase of 89%. SW analysis pointed out that the gradual decline in the delivery of new vessels and the slow recovery in demand will drive the ship utilization improved, thus boosting freight index and new orders to maintain upward trend.

The person said, although the industry's orders began to pick up, but the shipping price is still low, orders are concentrated to the industry's leading enterprises, small and medium shipyards is still very difficult, some of the leading enterprises rely on subsidies to the shipbuilding industry and other fixed-order business.

Shipyard build offshore boats swarming

Currently, shipbuilding enterprises also have a dry bulk vessel from the traditional to high-value-added specialty boat market. Yesterday, COSCO's a company official said, is now restructuring the shipbuilding industry, whether private or state-owned shipyards are manufactured offshore vessels swarmed ship, industry capacity in the future may face overcapacity situation. While the global offshore oil and gas development offshore engineering equipment continued to be active so that steady growth in demand in the first half, the global marine equipment orders totaled $ 33 billion, representing an increase of 22.2% over the same period last year. This year, Chinese enterprises new contracts amounted to $ 8 billion, second only to South Korea's $ 14 billion enterprise.

Data show that from January to July of domestic shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size export delivery value of 163.4 billion yuan to complete, down 10.2%. But in other sub-sectors have declined delivery value of the occasion, marine equipment manufacturing industry is " thriving" , from January to July rose 43.8%.

A broker pointed out that, subject to the delivery orders ship price reduction and the reduction of the shipyard next 2 to 3 years is still in the bottom of the range, which rises in restricted stock. A new round of marine support measures will effectively control the production capacity, increase recycling and order to focus on the core shipyard.

Port industry: Throughput up by 10.7%

Second half of the traditional " transport season" on port production has played a certain role in boosting. Ministry of Communications recently released data show that from January to August of above-scale port cargo throughput increased by 10.7% compared to last year, foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 9.8 percent this year, total container throughput up 8.2 percent from the last few months the situation , port throughput growth and stability.

Analysis: BDI index rebounded trade situation improved

It is understood that multi-port cargo throughput hit a new high last month, has pointed out that the port staff, from the port of arrival and records can be seen, in August, a total of 134 ships and mega ship out of Lianyungang Port, which is the second this year in January Lianyungang Port large ships entering and leaving Hong Kong 132 trips after the latest record. In addition, the company's revenue growth was essentially listed port throughput growth and consistent. But the situation first-half results, ports corporate profits stabilize, no increase in interest income situation under control.

But Shanghai international shipping center analysis also pointed out that in the second quarter when the global port steady trend still continues, but the range is limited, not as the expected level, due to the current weak economic environment is not yet undergone any substantial changes in the global port industry or the road to recovery become more lengthy.

It is understood, BDI index in addition to the primary commodity market price movements of the vane, to some extent, also the world's leading economic indicator. Since the end of June, BDI index slow recovery from the side also shows the international trade situation in the continuous improvement of the recovery in commodity prices also rose.

Since August, the economic data have been released, more and more signals of economic recovery, including the U.S. economic recovery, the European Economic obvious signs of bottoming out, Chinese economic data. BDI continued to soar since September 1600 break point, which also makes the market more optimistic about the future economic situation.

It is worth noting that the BDI rose persistent difficult to judge, but in the 2000 index is still below the breakeven point, on the other hand, the traditional peak season affect transportation, port throughput in 1 to August to maintain a rapid growth, But the situation is still untold container port development improved.