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Rubber prices
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-May-2007 21:07
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sticw060629, If you have been around here long enough, you'll know that I look at a stock from all perspectives - both good and bad. I don't love a stock and just post bullish comments on it which you'll read in a rival thread. I'm trying to present a balanced view. Rubber futures on TOCOM regained strength on renewed late buying Friday, shrugging off weakness in early trading. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract settled at 274.6 yen per kg, down 0.4 yen from Thursday, after briefly swinging back into plus territory. Ealier, it fell as low as 267.8 yen per kg. Rubber futures were pressured by bears' selling after 2 days of decline in early trading, reflecting gold futures' sharp decline. The 2 most distant contracts kept declining after rewriting their listing-to-date lows at the start. In the afternoon, sentiment improved as precious metals futures showed resilience. |
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sticw060629
Member |
11-May-2007 18:23
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It's really interesting to see Nostradamus's posted so diligently that I had to register to ask a question. After trying so much of your time to tell others that this is a bearish counter, and people still continue to be bullish about it, why are you still posting your bearish song? I'm vested in GMG, I don't go around telling others how good or bullish this counter is. So I'm very very interested why since you are so bearish about this counter, WHY bother to still track the rubber prices and tell others this counter is in a bearish trend? |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
11-May-2007 12:54
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GMG is in a bearish trend. Tokyo rubber futures tumbled more than 2% to a near 2-month low on Friday as selling gained momentum after the benchmark contract breached the closely watched 270-yen level. The decline was part of a broad sell-off in commodities, most notably precious metals, which sank by the daily limit on TOCOM in heavy fund selling. As of 0346 GMT, the benchmark TOCOM rubber contract for Oct delivery was at 269.0 yen, down 6.0 yen or 2.0% from Thursday, after falling to a low of 267.8 yen, matching the bottom hit on March 20. "This is a technical move ... and I still believe the market will be steady to firm in the medium term," a Tokyo broker said. He said the market had probably hit, or was near its bottom, and could rebound before long. Other traders said tight rubber supplies would lend support. Physical rubber prices were mostly unchanged despite the heavy decline on TOCOM, as sellers remained bullish due to limited supply. A top Indian rubber industry official said on Thursday that world rubber prices were likely to remain high at least until the end of May due to tight supplies from major producing countries. K. Jacob Thomas, a member of India's Rubber Board, said in response to e-mailed questions, that high oil prices would also lend support. "Oil price remains high, which also points towards the possibility of natural rubber prices staying high." |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
10-May-2007 21:11
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Rubber futures on TOCOM fell further amid bears' selling Thursday, expanding losses in late trading. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract closed at a session low of 275 yen per kg, down 5.8 yen from Wednesday. Rubber futures opened lower in a bearish mood carried over from the previous day. Buying was held in check by declines in oil and gold futures. Prices kept falling steadily toward the close. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
10-May-2007 01:04
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South American leaf blight, a fungal disease that is rampant in the Amazon, kills all Hevea species, and has made plantation cultivation difficult in South America. South East Asia has only had a few cases of the disease. But analysts say Asian rubber plantations' small genetic base -- with millions of trees coming from a handful of original Amazonian seeds -- make it vulnerable to an industry-disrupting epidemic. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
09-May-2007 16:34
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Tokyo rubber futures ended lower after a see-saw trading session on Wednesday, with prices trying to rebound from a one-week low but profit-taking limiting the gains. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Oc delivery settled at 280.8 yen per kg, down 5.0 yen, or 1.8%, from Tuesday's close. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
08-May-2007 19:10
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Tokyo rubber futures little changed from yesterday's close. China, the world's largest rubber consumer, is likely to return to the market after a week-long holiday, while tight supplies in main producers in Southeast Asia underpin the price of tyre-grade. Tyre makers Michelin, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. and Bridgestone were already in the market this week, buying rubber for nearby shipments from trading houses in S'pore, dealers on Tuesday. "People are anticipating that China will have to buy May and June cargoes. There's a little bit of tightness in raw material in Indonesia and it helps push up the market," said a dealer in Singapore. China was expected to import 1.75 million tonnes of natural rubber in '07, up from 1.61 million tonnes in 2006, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. Imports of synthetic rubber would rise to 1.5 million tonnes this year from 1.3 million tonnes in '06. "The price of SIR20 will hold firm for a while but Thai and Malaysian price will start to come down in the next two to three weeks when supplies improve," said a dealer in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai. "People have been buying SIR20 in the last few months because it's cheaper," he said. There were no reports of deals in Thailand and Malaysia but dealers expected consumers to show more interest in the two countries with the price of SIR20 already rising more than 5% in the past month. "Obviously, there's a bit of tightness in nearby shipments but SIR20 is no longer at a good discount to SMR and STR," said the Singapore dealer. "If the differential is too close, buyers such as China may shift to Thailand or Malaysia especially because the freight rates are cheaper," he said. Freight rates to Shanghai or Qindao from Bangkok were around US$400/container, compared with US$650 from Belawan or Palembang in Sumatra, said dealers. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
08-May-2007 13:10
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Tokyo rubber futures rose a little on Tuesday morning as falling physical supply lent support. "The market lacks direction," one dealer said. Falling physical supply still supported prices, but factors such as falling oil prices stopped them rising significantly, dealers said. Oil prices hovered near their lowest in 6 weeks on Tuesday due to expected higher crude oil stocks in the United States. In the physical market, rubber prices were higher on the back of firmer Asian currencies and the small rise on TOCOM. A stronger Indonesia rupiah "One U.S. dollar a pound is a level I haven't seen for a few years," an Indonesian trader said. Falling supply was still supporting physical prices as tapping in the 3 biggest rubber producing countries -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia -- has been disrupted by unusual rain, traders said. "Supply in Thailand and Malaysia is still tight due to rain while Indonesia is in the dry season," a trader said. Physical trade was expected to be busier this week as the Thai market reopened on Tuesday and China, the world's biggest rubber consumer, returned from a one-week holiday, traders said. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-May-2007 23:01
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Rubber futures on TOCOM extended gains Monday, accelerating rises on renewed buying toward the close. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract ended at an intraday high of 286.1 yen per kg, up 3.3 yen from Wednesday. The Tokyo market was closed for national holidays from Thursday to Friday. Rubber futures drew repurchases in early trading in a firm mood carried over from the previous business day. The most distant contract rewrote its lifetime high. The previous high was recorded on Apr 24, its debut day. Profit taking and selling on a rally became active late in the morning amid fears of excessive rises. But buying gathered steam toward the end of the session. |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
07-May-2007 13:15
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Those bad post ratings by Stockking and Bull Run from the rival thread will not deter anyone from posting here. Generally, NR is stronger than SR. While there is only one chemical type of NR, there are around 20 different chemical types of SR, each with distinguishable grades and properties. In 2006 some 12,515,000 tonnes of SR were produced and 12,617,000 thousand tonnes consumed; far more than the 9,188,000 tonnes of NR produced and 8,956,000 consumed, the International Rubber Study group estimates. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
06-May-2007 11:57
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Synthetic rubber is petroleum based -- 2 by-products gases, butadiene and styrene, are mixed with soapsuds in a reactor to create synthetic liquid latex. These petrochemical feedstocks can drive up production prices, and fuel demand for natural rubber, as oil prices rise. Around 7 gallons of oil are used to produce one tyre, the RMA says -- 5 gallons as feedstock and 2 gallons to power the manufacturing process. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
05-May-2007 19:27
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When and why was synthetic rubber (SR) invented? The U.S. started building SR plants under President Franklin D. Roosevelt, after 90% of its supplies were cut off by the Japanese occupation of Asia's major rubber producing areas, Malaysia and Singapore, in World War II. Post-1945 plants were built primarily in Europe, North America, and Japan. Synthetic rubber production jumped from 8,000 tons in 1941 to 820,000 tons in 1945 according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association (RMA). |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
05-May-2007 12:01
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Wild rubber from South American jungles was the main source of crude rubber for most of the 19th century. Demand soared after pneumatic inflatable rubber tyres for bicycles and cars began to be produced around 1889. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
04-May-2007 19:01
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In 1876, British explorer Henry Wickham broke Brazil's monopoly and evaded its rigid embargo to bring 70,000 rubber tree seeds to London on the recommendation of the director of Kew Gardens, where over 2,000 seeds were germinated in hothouses. In 1877, eleven seedlings landed at the Singapore Botanical Garden, where botanist Henry Nicholas Ridley invented the rapid propagation and tapping methods that fuelled the Malaysian (then Malaya) rubber industry's rise. The first plantations were in British colonies like Sri Lanka (then Ceylon) and Malaysia (then Malaya). |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
04-May-2007 14:57
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Hi august, Compare Global Voice with GMG. Both volumes were >100 million. GV ended up $0.025. This is bullish. But GMG finished up only $0.005. Now this is bearish. May have resistance around $0.18. |
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august
Senior |
03-May-2007 13:58
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With due respect to all the Si-fu,.. I hv just loaded myself with 50lots of GMG - given it's high volume. My question is... given the expected short supply,.. I should be expecting the px to move upwards right ? I have difficulties understanding all the jargons from all previous post. Do educated me for peace of mind. Thanks ! |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
03-May-2007 13:41
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shplayer, Don't bother playing with them. Just don't bother to read their postings. I have a good idea who they are. About 12,515,000 tonnes of synthetic rubber and 9,188,000 tonnes of natural rubber were produced in 2006, the International Rubber Study Group estimates, with the Asia/Oceania region the top producer of both types. |
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shplayer
Elite |
03-May-2007 07:40
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Nos, Aiyoh!!!!!....I also got hit for my post to you......he he he..... |
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Nostradamus
Supreme |
03-May-2007 00:27
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shplayer, You hit the nail on the head. It doesn't bother me. You have good contributions too, especially FA. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract settled at a session high. Repositioning was dominant in early trading before a long weekend. Trading lacked a clear direction. But sellers' buybacks became active late in the morning. Prices rose further in the afternoon session. The Tokyo market will be closed for national holidays from Thursday to Friday. TOCOM prices were expected to rise further next week supported by falling supply, dealers said. Unseasonal rains in Thailand, the number-one producer, and Malaysia, the third-largest producer, resulted in falling supply and higher raw material prices, they said. "There were heavy rains in Thailand's south and there's no latex available for almost three days as rains disrupted tapping," a Thai trader said. "The wintering dry season has ended and the rainy season came too early," another said. |
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zhuge_liang
Supreme |
02-May-2007 13:50
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Crude rubber stocks held at Japanese warehouses fell 2.3 percent to 18,216 tonnes by April 20 from 18,640 tonnes on April 10, the Rubber Trade Association of Japan said on Wednesday. Domestic inventories have dropped 4% in the last month, but traders said they were still high, holding above 18,000 tonnes most of the time since February. Traders will be watching the trend in inventories in coming weeks as the wintering dry season draws to an end in Thailand, the world's top producer. A possible jump in stocks in the future could depress rubber futures prices on TOCOM, but they have been less sensitive to trends in inventories recently. The lead TOCOM rubber contract moved in a narrow range on Wednesday as traders were wary of taking fresh positions ahead of a four-day holiday in Japan, where markets are closed on Thursday and Friday as part of the Golden Week string of holidays. Key October TOCOM rubber closed the morning session at 278.7 yen a kg, up 1.8 yen or 0.7% from Tuesday's close. It had moved in a range of 276.6 to 279.4 yen. |
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