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things every retail investor/trader should know
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elfinchilde
Elite |
05-Sep-2008 11:30
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completely agree. another forumer on a site i frequent has this line as his quote: "A stop loss is a win." Aside, it's a buy for today. Buy, peeps, not dump, not today. (small tho). The BBs are churning to buy. The blues. look at the data clearly. It's controlled accumulation. caveat applies; i don't want to name the counters since it's on-going. so look clearly; and above all, pls don't whack.
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
05-Sep-2008 10:03
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Yes, capital preservation... | ||||
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singaporegal
Supreme |
05-Sep-2008 09:08
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Totally agree with Livermore. The people who are best positioned to survive a recession are those who save money and have no long term debt. It's not about how much you make.... it's about how much you save.
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Livermore
Master |
05-Sep-2008 07:53
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I just told one of my friend. Save money now. If one is not comfortable with shorting and when market recovers, you need capital. | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
05-Sep-2008 07:50
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I echo trader88 view. Frankly one should NOT be investing or trading in the market if one is unwillingly to cut loss as one can never be right all the time. Once you lose big time once, it can be game over
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
05-Sep-2008 02:03
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"Mistaken belief that one cannot read it on charts" It is a statement easily understood by true techies. Most retail investors/traders want to be right ALL THE TIME. They see cutting loss as a major trading mistake and thus by admitting the "mistake", it is viewed as being wrong. Which in reality, to true traders, cutting loss is considered as being making the right move. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Sep-2008 22:32
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yuppers, trader88. excellent advice. when in doubt, stay out. stupidfool, lost sight? i kinda thought most retailers would have long have stopped rapid trading already and buckled in for long term. personally, i stopped all scalps more than a month ago, since i know my own risk appetite isn't that great and i'm not that gungho. plus, the risk/reward is simply not worth it. you make what, 10c one day, and risk losing 20c another day. may as well park in for longterm and wait. is a good position to take in this market. frankly, the only ones left in this market are the day traders, gamblers and the local BBs. with the exception of foreigners who appear now and then to sell. which was why the earlier thing i had said for traders to short at channel top til trend proves otherwise. for those without the appetite or tools or capability to do rapid trading, the advice remains the same: go small, go light, look only for good counters for LONG TERM. Never give up long term gains for the short term. btw, lest anyone thinks otherwise, lemme just say that i was using biosensors as an eg only. to shed light on rapid trades, and the mistaken belief that one cannot read it on charts. But just because i can call it, doesn't mean i'll play it. one always needs to consider overall strat, portfolio requirements, money management, etc. The longterm aim must always be kept in sight. Having skills is one thing; having discipline is something else altogether. I learnt the latter the hard way, you can be sure. |
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lookcc
Master |
04-Sep-2008 22:20
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the ability to stay focus is a great strength. | ||||
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stupidfool
Senior |
04-Sep-2008 22:17
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I can see that because the market is in bearish state,many has lost sight of their initial objective and start to chop and change their strategies. |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
04-Sep-2008 17:50
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When in doubt, stay out. | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
04-Sep-2008 11:58
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good post, thanks ed88ks. was just about to post for wannabe traders; you saved me some trouble. btw, anyone who has good articles/sound advice for n00bs, feel free to post here as well. we should make this a collaborative SJ effort for the new 'uns. ------------------- carrying on from ed88ks' post: for rapid trades (daily/overnight/less than 5 days): There are essentially two main patterns: ranging and breakouts. Markets range (ie, move in a pattern/channel) about 80% of the time, if not more. Breakouts tend to be rarer. However, if you play a breakout, chances are that it is more profitable. Neither is good or bad on its own; it all depends on your own risk appetite, money management skills and what you want to do. Things to note (i'll just deal with breakouts today): pls keep in mind, all in this post is for rapid trades only: nothing to do with fundamentals, nothing to do with 'good stock' or 'bad stock'. Do not overleverage. The main point of a breakout is that the stock moves in a continuous direction. So if it does not, you cut, and NOT average in. Breakouts can fail: ie, false breakouts. So the moment a breakout does not occur, you must cut it. Especially if it has far to fall from its baseline level. Those of you who follow the biosensors thread will realise that quite a few of the more experienced techies (myself included) keep saying how biosensors is "easy to play" on charts, and that it conforms to patterns, and is for techies. This is why. Firstly, for me (i know there are a lot who think o/w): biosensors is a rapid trading counter, nothing more. It is played for breakouts, not range. Notice the pattern: 3 days of stabilisation (dojis/small candlesticks) before a fast move one-way in 1-3 days. Very consistent. hehe. Your entry for the counter can come on any of the days highlighted. Preferably, i'd choose to enter on the morning of the runup itself; or as in the 3rd instance: the day prior, where buys outweighed sells by more than 4: 1 in a narrow range of 50-53.5c. That followed the consequent morning with a near immediate runup from 53-55c, before hitting the peak of 635. It's a very strong breakout signal. Personally, knowing this counter, i would not hold a trade in it for more than 2 days. And this, essentially, is how traders play. In a low vol market, winners are those who move fast. Don't gotta wait for it to hit 1.2, or whatever targets pundits and research houses are calling. Let them talk. You see the walk instead: in the last 20-21 trading days, you can make a conservative estimate of 30c (from initial px of 50c) from this counter. Just by following the BBs, whose movements are, as always, reflected in the charts. |
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ed88ks
Senior |
03-Sep-2008 19:01
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We assume that you have already
experience in trading. A lot of good books have been written about day
trading and trading principles, so we just want to mention some important
rules which concern our indicators.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
02-Sep-2008 15:14
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no prob wongmx6. :) yuppers livermore. i like leverage actually; since it affords the opp, esp in this kind of market, to diversify further. Besides, with even defensive stocks trading at close to their lows now, it gives the chance to pick up high div yielders. Say at 8% div yield, x2 on margin => 16% return on div yield alone. Assume a once a year sell trade with conservative capital gain of 5%, that means 21% return pa. Even overestimating for brokerage, interest incurred etcetc, it's a nice 15% return pa, for trading only a few times a year. Overtrading dilutes profit. Leverage does need to come with a caution notice though: a lot will overleverage; that erodes capital fast. Proper money management is key. Livermore's absolutely right here. :) ------------- On another issue: linkages of STI with other factors: annotations first for those new to the forex field: abbreviation for the pairs: EU = euro/USD pair. UJ = USD/JPY pair. For stock market watchers, esp those who intend to be day traders, you need to watch these two pairs as well, as their movement is correlated with the DJIA performance, europe's performance, and hence affects the STI performance. (double effect, because HSI reacts to DJIA as well.). Often from these two pairs, especially the UJ, you can tell how well the DJIA will perform in the night. Sometimes, with a better accuracy than DJIA futures. About half hr ago the EU broke below its longer term trendline support of 1.4534. Now hovering around there. So if this pair breaks down further, you can expect europe to open (has opened?) in the red. And since the UJ is hovering with bias for down, it implies the DJIA is likely down tonight. (methinks it's a tightrange closing 2 digit negative.) So the likely opening of the STI tomorrow is a negative bias. And in this way, traders, especially those specialising in the end-of-day/beginning-of-day trades, will set up their positions accordingly. 430pm take positions, 0900-0915am tomorrow lock in position. STI stocks are currently in a tight range. Which means warrants need to be scalped. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
02-Sep-2008 08:27
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Thus, one can see that a conceptual/philosophical as understanding of the market as it is is absolutely essential. |
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wongmx6
Veteran |
01-Sep-2008 22:50
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Thanks elfinchilde.
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Livermore
Master |
01-Sep-2008 22:24
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Yeah, it always comes back to rule number 1 - proper money management. If leveraging is a "sure lose" as the writer in today's newpaper puts in, how could those be doing well trading full time with leveraging?
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-Sep-2008 22:14
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agreed, livermore. leverage mainly has a bad press, not because the tool per se is bad, but because most people do not know how to utilise it to its best effects. more often than not, it attracts people who'll just speculate with the 2x, 3x of money; which only results in them getting busted and margin calls. but that's just bad money management. Did they have a plan? Did they have an exit strategy? What was their dollar-cost-average levels? Was it thought out? yes, losses theoretically are doubled (if you go 2x on margin), but gains too are theoretically doubled. the key is in proper money management. wongmx6, it depends. Most companies require their directors to declare their holdings and all transactions. A lot of the proper companies also have a lockup period: eg, no trading for 7 days, or even 6 mths. This is to prevent overtrading and insider trading. Some will also require you to declare holdings of your spouses and family, to really ensure fairness. Insider trading is when the person trades on price-sensitive news that is not yet known to the public. (though of course, as i've mentioned on other threads, it's difficult to prove.) Actually, a decent and proper company would frown on its directors trading its shares too often: for one thing, it is bad for the company image---the directors come across as gamblers or profiteers--for another, it sends to the public a message that its own directors do not believe in the company. So generally, for good companies, what you find is that when it dips, insiders will buy instead. this is to send a message of faith, that the directors believe in their company. And certainly you'll not find them dumping their stocks when the share price goes down. That's a publicity no-no. Smaller companies do that though, especially if their own directors are on margin and kena margin call. It's happened before; unwise usage of leverage. And as with cosco: where the directors trade so frequently: if you were an investor, would you trust such a company? The warning signs were there long ago already.
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Livermore
Master |
01-Sep-2008 21:02
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Once you get the leverage strategy on long correct, shorting with leverage is simply the reverse. | ||||
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Livermore
Master |
01-Sep-2008 21:00
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The base price need not be the lowest price. It could be the price during correction before the next uptrend begins.
When one wish to leverage, you cannot buy all your lots at one price. It has to be at different prices and within a certain range. You only leverage once your previous buys give you a paper profit. They act as a buffer for you. |
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Livermore
Master |
01-Sep-2008 20:48
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Today's Newpaper has an article "Leverage Investments. Invest less, earn more : What's the catch? The article seems to imply that using leverage tools is a "sure lose". Well I don't agree with the writer. The writer says in a growing economy, "If you buy and hold, you will ride your shares higher with the booming economy. That is without leverage. Do the same thing with leverage and you will lose." I have explained to friends before. In a bull market, leveraging is the best way to increase your profit. How you set up your buys is a strategy. One need not leverage 10 times as the writer says. Once your buy set-up "takes off", your one year interest on your loan is paid off in less than 2 weeks During say a one year bull run when share price keep going up and once you can catch the "base" price and it takes off, after your 1 year interest is paid off in less than 2 weeks, you just ride on profit from then onwards. It is a total misconception that leverage tools should only be used for short term. |
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