| Latest Forum Topics / GMG Global |
 Post Reply
|
|
Rubber prices
|
|||
|
sohguanh
Veteran |
22-May-2007 10:10
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hulumas prediction on certain stocks had hit jackpot on a few occassions. Of cuz there are misses but the average probability of his prediction coming true indicate to me he has insider info. One avenue I could think of is he could be doing business indirectly or know of business associates doing business with those listed company. Purely based on TA and FA I doubt can get so high accuracy. Btw Huluamas advocate YongNam for at least 3 years before it finally takes off and now YongNam is awesome!!!! Do not under-estimate his prediction although I still doubt how he arrived at those prediction. Hmmmm.......... |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
synnexo
Veteran |
22-May-2007 10:02
|
||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Agree with sticw060629, As far as I'm concern, I think both Nostradamus & zhuge_liang are contributing quality stuff. Don't have to be bothered with those folks. They maybe jealous of your knowledge & the ability to conduct in-depth research. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
sticw060629
Member |
22-May-2007 09:44
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Nostradamus & Zhuge, Don't need to get too disturbed by any ranking or what-so-ever. As far as I can see everyone can make forum a better place for sharing and views. And if anyone needs or thinks one can profit by rumors and offloading counters to others thru the influence in forum, they are only kidding themselves... Cheers! 
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
20-May-2007 19:35
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Following are tables on the world's top regional producers and consumers of NR in 2006:** NATURAL RUBBER PRODUCTION RANKING REGION PRODUCTION(TONNES) 1. Asia 8,928,000 2. Africa 401,000 3. Latin America 203,000 TOTAL: 9,188,000 NATURAL RUBBER CONSUMPTION RANKING REGION PRODUCTION(TONNES) 1. Asia/Oceania 5,625,000 2. European Union 1,305,000 3. North America 1,148,000 4. Latin America 519,000 5. Other Europe 157,000 6. Africa 115,000 TOTAL: 8,956,000 ** All data from the International Rubber Study Group. Some numbers need balancing adjustments. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-May-2007 19:57
|
||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures ended more than 1% higher on Friday as rising oil prices spurred speculative buying, but profit taking limited the gains. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM for Oct delivery settled at 289.3 yen per kg, up 3.3 yen, or 1.2%, from Thursday's close. The benchmark briefly touched 290.3 yen in early trade, the highest since Apr 19, before succumbing to profit-taking. "Day-traders cashed in profit," a dealer said. "Most players wanted to avoid risks as technical sentiment is not quite good." U.S. crude oil futures for Jun delivery were up 8% at US$64.94 a barrel in line with Brent crude, which hovered above US$70 a barrel on fears that more U.S. refinery outages would have an impact on gasoline supply. But TOCOM's technical mood was expected to remain bearish over the next week after it failed several times to break 290.0 yen and 300 yen respectively, even though fundamentals lent support, dealers said. Physical prices rose in line with TOCOM and were expected to remain firm due as erratic weather hit producing countries and cut supplies, traders said. There was still rain in Thailand and Malaysia, disrupting tapping and pushing raw material prices up, traders said. Dry weather hit Medan, a rubber growing region in north Sumatra, resulting in less latex output in Indonesia. "Some Indonesian exporters still have to postpone their shipments from May to June and July as they don't have enough supplies to ship," an Indonesian trader said. Physical trade was thin ahead of the weekend, with most buyers waiting for prices to dip. However, some Chinese buyers with falling stocks were seeking rubber for prompt shipment through Singapore dealers after Indonesian exporters could not fill their orders, they said. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
18-May-2007 16:37
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Tokyo rubber futures may jump more than 3% by end-May on demand from China and tight supplies in Southeast Asia, but a failure to crack a resistance level continues to dog investors, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The benchmark rubber contract on TOCOM, currently Oct '07, could rise 3.6% by end-May to 287.3 yen per kg, from 277.2 yen at the end of April, according to the median forecast of 10 analysts and dealers polled by Reuters. The forecasts ranged from 260 yen to 300 yen. Main consumer China is likely to buy more rubber due to its strong economic growth and also ahead of the '08 Olympic Games in Beijing, where a 100 billion yuan (US$13 billion) investment in public transport is expected to keep traffic flowing. But a bearish technical outlook, due to Tokyo's failed attempts to break 300 yen in recent weeks, could limit gains, said the respondents, who expected the most active contract to reach a median of 286.3 yen per kg by the end of June. The forecasts for June ranged from 280 to 310 yen. "As long as supply conditions are unclear, I don't think distant TOCOM rubber will fall below 250 yen," said Shuji Sugata of Mitsubishi Corp. Futures and Securities Ltd. "Underlying technicals look weak, particularly after failing to break through 300 yen," he said. The benchmark contract failed to breach 300 yen twice this year -- in mid-Feb and then in mid-Apr, when it rallied to a 9-month high of 299.5 yen. But erratic weather in main producing countries -- Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia -- could help cushion the falls in Tokyo futures and offered support for the physical market. "Supply is still tight in May and it's not clear whether it could pick up in June," said a dealer in Thailand's rubber centre of Hat Yai. Supplies have been tight in recent weeks following heavy rains in Thailand and Malaysia. A combination of dry and wet weather in Indonesia has also disrupted tapping and the flow of latex. Although supplies may improve eventually, they may not be enough to meet demand from China, which is expected to stock up in the 2nd half of '07 after smaller-than-expected purchases in the first half due to high prices. China's imports of natural rubber in the 1st quarter of '07 fell 1% to 500,000 tonnes from the same period a year earlier. It was forecast to import 1.75 million tonnes this year, up from 1.61 million tonnes in 2006, according to the China Rubber Industry Association. "Rain should stop and supply should peak in June, but now no one knows for sure whether more rain would come because the weather is unpredictable," said a dealer in Malaysia. Forecasts for TOCOM sixth-month rubber prices in yen per kg: end-May '07 end-Jun '07 Median 287.3 286.3 Lowest 260.0 280.0 Highest 300.0 310.0 |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
18-May-2007 00:19
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM extended gains Thursday, drawing buybacks in a firm mood carried over from Wednesday's late surge. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract settled at 286 yen per kg, up 2.2 yen from the previous day, after rising to a new lifetime high of 289 yen in the middle of the afternoon session. Rubber futures got off to a solid start and maintained strength later in the morning. Long liquidation became active toward the close, trimming part of the gains. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
16-May-2007 23:26
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM rose steeply on a late bout of buying Wednesday with five contracts from June to October scoring maximum allowable one-day gains. The benchmark, most distant October 2007 contract closed at 283.8 yen per kilogram, up by a daily limit of 10 yen. The May contract with no price fluctuation limit climbed 11.2 yen to close at a session high of 281.2 yen. Contracts from June to September were limit-up at the close. Repurchases were active in early trading on the back of gains in gold and other futures. Sentiment weakened at one point as long liquidation grew. But buybacks by dealers became active toward the morning close. Prices began pushing up in late trading as repurchases were induced by gasoline futures' further gains. Individual investors moved for loss-cut buybacks amid thin sell orders, a market trader said. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
sticw060629
Member |
16-May-2007 12:02
|
||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Thailand Aims to Keep Rubber Price Stable, Thira Says (Update1) By Anuchit Nguyen and Claire Leow May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand, the world's biggest natural-rubber producer and exporter, wants to keep domestic prices stable to maintain demand and avoid a shift to synthetic versions, a government minister said. Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy ``prefers'' to sell rubber for between 60 baht ($1.74) and 70 baht a kilogram, Thailand's Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Thira Sutabutra said at a rubber conference in Bangkok today. About 58 percent of the world rubber consumption was met by synthetic rubber at the end of last year, according to the International Rubber Study Group's Web site. The synthetic product is made from petroleum, while natural rubber is tapped from trees. ``We want to keep the rubber prices at a very stable level,'' Thira said at a rubber conference. ``If prices are too high, consumers will shift to synthetic rubber.'' Thai rubber traded on the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand closed at 74.7 baht on May 11, 6 percent lower in the past 12 months. ``The cost of rubber for farmers in Thailand is about 35 baht to 40 baht a kilogram,'' the minister said. ``At these prices, they are more than happy.'' The government wants to boost the proportion of rubber exports that are processed to 50 percent over the next five years, Thira said. At present, 80 percent of exports are as natural rubber. ``We are studying a plan to attract more investments in plants to make auto tires, rubber gloves and other rubber- related products,'' Thira said. ``Thailand has a long-term plan for value creation of our exports.'' Thira is attending the World Rubber Summit 2007, a two-day gathering backed by the International Rubber Study Group, which groups rubber-producing and -using nations. To contact the reporters on this story: Anuchit Nguyen in Bangkok at anguyen@bloomberg.net ; Claire Leow in Jakarta at cleow@bloomberg.net Last Updated: May 14, 2007 00:02 EDT |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
15-May-2007 23:23
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Rubber futures on TOCOM remained weak amid bears' selling Tuesday. The benchmark, most distant Oct '07 contract settled at 273.8 yen per kg, down 1.3 yen from Monday. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
sticw060629
Member |
15-May-2007 14:47
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
15-May-2007 11:51
|
||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Thailand overtook Malaysia to become the world's top natural rubber producer in 1990, United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation records show, with Indonesia taking the number 2 spot from Malaysia in 1991. Here is a table of the world's top 10 producers (2005). RANKING COUNTRY PRODUCTION IN TONNES 1. Thailand 2,977,309 2. Indonesia 2,128,000 3. Malaysia 1,126,000 4. India 780,000 5. China 513,000 6. Vietnam 481,600 7. Nigeria 142,000 8. Cote d'Ivoire 134,802 9. Liberia 112,000 10. Sri Lanka 104,250 TOTAL: 8,498,361 |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
|
|||
|
sticw060629
Member |
14-May-2007 21:43
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
I have been waiting for freak weather to go back to normal since Nov 06... I rely on the weather for one of my hobby, but the weather has been so freaky that my hobby hasn't earn me any money... Oil prices set to remain high, believe Middle-east cutting supply again... Just praying hard that they actually get to sell rubber to China, that will be a very very good news... 
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
zhuge_liang
Supreme |
14-May-2007 21:35
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Freak weather, but should be back to normal by end-May. Rubber futures on TOCOM showed a mixed performance Monday after pushing up in early trading. The benchmark, most distant Oct 2007 contract was up only slightly. Trading was lethargic for lack of fresh pegs specific to rubber. |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
sticw060629
Member |
14-May-2007 08:48
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi Nostradamus, Thanks for your reply, I do think that rubber prices will rebound, due to the freak weather in Thailand, Malaysia region. Also, NR has a natural decay factor, any stock pile will have to move on else the NR will decay, supply constraint due to weather (not able to harvest plus the trees takes time to re-start the harvesting process) will cos the onset of price appreciation in NR. On the other hand, SR prices which is influenced largely by oil prices set to come down can be a dampen on the NR prices, then again, there are many products that cannot use SR as a substitute for NR. Cheers! 
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Nostradamus
Supreme |
13-May-2007 13:36
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
sticw060629, I'm also confident on the long-term prospects of rubber and commodities in general. I was talking about short-term prices. I'm not bearish on the counter. Just on its short-term price. Rubber futures hit 267.8 yen, matching the bottom hit on March 20. I believe the movement is technical in nature. Could rebound from there. Cheers! |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
sticw060629
Member |
11-May-2007 22:39
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi Happy07, I do appreciate, am again just offering my alternative view. Like I mentioned earlier, I'm vested, but it doesn't mean I will go around to talk it up, cos when I bought the counter, I intend to keep it for awhile as I'm a believer of commodities will have to be priced higher than today's prices (you can call me a commodities bull). Again, whatever I state here is due to the way I view the situation on the global condition moving forward, that's all. 
Personally I do not see this as the end of the Bull run, I just look at this as a good period of zig zags and pull backs for earnings to play catching up with the stock prices (In USA, it may well be the opposite where prices have to play catching up with earnings). China is of course a big headache with the high P/E, then again, with China in the limelight from this year till after 2008, do you think the Chinese will like stock market/economy tank? Even the 1997 financial crisis (again it was capex>demand, much like what China is afraid of), was initiated due to an attack on the Thai Bht. Today, the Asia countries all have good reserves, and definitely China is one which others can't attack the way it did in 1997 for Thailand. Else why do you think the rich nations kept asking China to revalue Yuan? (Maybe the most obvious reason is that they can't attack Yuan, bring down China and buy up her country like they did in 1997 to a lot of Asia nations...? Food for thou) Anyway, I'd drifted too much already... Cheers!
|
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
Happy07
Member |
11-May-2007 22:27
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Hi sticw060629, I just want to share with you that I personally have been benefit much from Nostradamus, zhuge_liang, Bull run and stockking posting in this counter. I find their sharing truthful and in depth.Hope you will benefit from their sharing too. Regards, |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
sticw060629
Member |
11-May-2007 22:05
|
||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Nostradamus, Thanks for your reply, definitely appreciate a balanced view on all counters. Indeed the rubber futures saw more downward pressure, however, such is the doing of traders on the commodities, which in a slightly longer time frame of say a couple of months, may not be the tune of the play. When I first saw this counter, I was kind of interested and when on to do more reading and yes whatever on the history of rubber etc, I have already read before going into this counter. The interesting thing is, rubber demand and supply is about matched. Indeed the profit of GMG is affected by the price of the underlying commodity, NR, as well as the quantity. With GMG increasing their production vol (with the Indo acqusition)by at least 1/3? The quantity can help cover the lost of revenue from lower NR. Also, my personal view is that sooner not later, traders play have to change as the real demand and supply will kick in and expect delivery of the commodity. This is very true in the case when Buffett went on a buying fever on silver a couple of years earlier. In the end, traders who have been happily shorting silver futures had to go out and actually source for silver to deliver. Am not saying Warren Buffett will do his buying of rubber, but the fact that there is actual demand and supply for rubber, and we know that for any commodities, supply will take more time to catch up with demand. Thus, for anyone who wants to buy this counter for a longer term time frame, this counter is not that over-priced, NTA of 12.7cts and you're paying 15cts? Plus GMG's existing stock of rubber plantation can at the least sustain their production level for the next 3-5years. Unless one thinks that the demand for rubber will drop as there will be a global recession, then, yes I would agree that this counter is unlikely to be good as the demand for rubber will drop, giving a situation of SS>DD almost immediately. It's good to have different views on stocks, afterall, that's what forum is about. But one has to have certain amount of assumption set on the overall global situation, then move on with the investment criteria and horizon of investment for return. There is no true right or wrong, just differences in time frame, expectation of reward/risk ratio and personal investment/trading style. Cheers! |
||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||
|
august
Senior |
11-May-2007 21:48
|
||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Just a short comment...everytime I wonder about the future state of the stock, I will refer to the posting by all the master in this site. My sincere appreciation. | ||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||