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Fellowship of the Shares
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singaporegal
Supreme |
02-May-2007 20:08
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi fortunegal, Thanks again.... sigh... I have never gone without the net for a single day since ..... errr.... I can't remember! haha... I can't wait to see the deep blue sea. I saw the news yesterday, there was a clip on the Redang Cruise! They had some mass matchmaking cruise for many singles and they showed a few seconds of the Redang Island. I think I will enjoy the trip. I'm feeling much better now after a strong dose of antibiotics and panadol. shplayer - you stayed in a village right? When were you last there? geojam - I need free flu shots! haha.. |
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j3r0m3
Veteran |
02-May-2007 17:00
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totally lost track of the posts here, such is the speed and frequency you all post... :P Anyway, fortunegal, i guess i should have enough points in POEMS, earned from my foolish buying and selling in the past. will check it out. Thanks for the heads up elf, thanks for the educational post on BBs, looking forward to the next lesson. Hee. But this is not an inducement to teach. :D |
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fortunegal
Senior |
02-May-2007 14:19
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singaporegal, it is only one day u can't check the net. still okie. cos day 1: you can check ur mail, or SJ forum ard 3 to 4pm. then by 5.30pm u reach harbourfront. Go have dinner, have fun taking pictures in star cruise.... forget all abt the net cos you have check in daytime. day 2: whole day in star cruise, including snorkelling trip to redang. Not sure if laguna redang resort have internet, you may do a search on their website. Time is very short though, when u see the baby blue sea, you forget abt the net. trust me. day 3: they make u check out from the balcony cabin by 12 to 1pm, u come out from ship at 2pm, think u reach home should be ard 3pm plus. That day, after i reach home, I still can sell a share before 5pm that day. so still okie though. |
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shplayer
Elite |
01-May-2007 22:12
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The last I stayed at Redang (2001), there wasn't even TV.......not sure about now though. |
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baseerahmed
Master |
01-May-2007 22:08
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elfinchilde : Thank you very much ! |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-May-2007 21:43
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ah, singaporegal, i thought you'd went on your trip already that's why no sound from you. aie, sorry to hear you're sick too. mebbe us sickies should form a club. haha. misery loves company. haha. get well soon! geez. give the net a break lah. redang hotels should have some internet places... it's a small island tho...not sure. k, nites, all! and thanks godpa for the compliment. just hope ppl find it useful. work tmrw. sigh. |
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geojam
Member |
01-May-2007 21:21
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sporegal Hope u have recovered from ur flu. Always remember that i give free hugs,so if need it just look for me.I also give free hugs on Labour day.Hahaha |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
01-May-2007 21:07
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi fortunegal, Oh no! There's no Internet on the cruise ship??! This is terrible!! How am I going to check my email and post on SJ ??!! Are there any Internet cafes at Redang itself? As you can all see, I'm an addict to the web. |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
01-May-2007 21:03
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi all, I haven't been posting for a couple of days because I'm sick with a bad flu.... it comes complete with a massive headache, running nose and a bad sore throat. I'm labouring on Labour Day... this is crap... |
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geojam
Member |
01-May-2007 20:56
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thanks Elf appreciate ur excellent post. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-May-2007 20:36
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BBs (cont): and prior apologies to all for racking up posts. i'm doing it so that it isn't too long to be digested. breaking it down to become bite sized. haha. classes of BBs: As godpa has already observed wisely, there are more than one class of BBs. you should never make the mistake of assuming it's only BBs vs small fries. Roughly, there are your bona fide fund mgmt companies--overseas and local (different, 'cos they pick dif stocks), there are private investors, there are private hedge funds too. the last are a new breed, and they skew the pic by quite a lot because some of them don't have experience; plus their goals etc are different. They're normally the ones you find ramping up penny stocks. True blue fund mgmt companies, esp the overseas one, honestly, they go only for the blues. Most of the times it's BBs versus small fries (abbr: SF from now on). but sometimes, esp with small family owned companies, there's fight for control of the board. so what you'll see is dumping by one BB to force out the other guy, esp if he's on margin. And the other guy will rapidly try to mop up the float, as we call it. Who succeeds depends essentially on who has greater funds. Sometimes it's played on a larger scale in the blues. That's when stock prices undergo huge volatility. and the pic is skewed by the retailers who rush into the frenzied feeding too. and then there are contra-ists and day traders and shortists, too. Singtel in the past few months when market crashed is a key example of a played stock by BBs and everyone and sundry. Simple logic, can your average man on the street afford to buy 500 lots of singtel at one shot? it's obviously BBs and gungho traders at work here. My sole advice is, don't get caught in the crossfire of the BBs. That's why in techs, you sometimes need to be very, very careful in order to weed out the real pic of what is happening. as for day traders (as this is their market now). how you can roughly gauge who's in the market: the average daily vol. few think of using this as an indicator, but to me, it's an excellent indicator of macrotrend. Because the ave daily vol of the market is actually abt 2 bil only. if it's blues in the top gainers/actives, it's the BBs at play. When things sink to 1-1.5 bil, it's a lull period. everyone's staying on the sidelines. Esp the BBs, who tend to have prior news so they exit faster than the rest of us. When the no: ups to 3-4 bil, and it's all pennies in the top actives, day traders, contraists and shortists are at work. This kind of market (as is what is happening past few days: top actives all pennies, but STI down, yet vol is high) is the most tricky to trade in. Can collapse anytime. Blues, then mids, then pennies is the cycle. After the pennies is either an upswing of blues again, or more likely, a collapse. Look at New York 1929, Shanghai and Tokyo in the 1950s/70s, Asia in 1997, 2003. Patterns, bro. Perhaps i am a pessimist, but it's human nature. It's the same reason why the FBI has psychological profiling to catch criminals. Human nature rarely changes. of course, the guiding principle remains the same: we're retail investors. let's not kid ourselves. you can never outfight the BBs. so the only thing you can do, is to follow the trend. after all, to win, ya don't gotta be the shark. just gotta be the little remora fish swimming beneath it. Ride the waves. And keep in mind always that the market is a fluid place. Techs map the trend, so techs stay true as long as the trend stays true. Which is why, never be complacent. always check and recheck your techs as long as you're vested in that counter. think, people! live chicken, not dead tiger! haha. and i hope this has been useful. any disagreements feel free to share. i'm just one opinion ah. not the gospel truth. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-May-2007 20:20
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on BBs: if you guys haven't realised by now, the market is essentially an artificial construct. what moves a share price is not so much the actual value of a company, but the psychological reaction of people to that value. Eg, yes, SPC is actually "undervalued", in terms of its PE ratio, but its share price is hovering in a fixed band. Moreover, SPC is predominantly an oil refinery company, so by right, if oil prices increase, SPC should go down. It does not do so, however. For the simple reason that when investors see SPC, they think: direct relation wtih oil prices. That is why, when oil prices increase, SPC tends to go up, even though logically, there's no reason for it to. So my central thesis is that the market is an emotive place. What governs it are emotions, not logic. What moves a stock price is momentum. ie, people want it to move a certain way. And the battle field is set up between BBs and small retail investors. Because remember after all that this is game theory at its truest: that investing is a zero sum game. ie, where someone wins, another must lose. In fund companies, we call it the Greater Fool Theory: who's the idiot that you can catch to hold onto the stock at a higher share price. Since it obviously has to be sold to someone. Retailers are always getting tricked. Since for most retailers, they can't be bothered to go through the mountains of data, they're only interested in seeing "Recommended: BUY" and "Target price = xx". And they rush to buy. The trouble is that most retail investors are less of investors, more of gamblers. But common sense: BBs hold the stock, they want to sell it. They are also the ones who issue analyst reports. If that is not conflict of interest, i don't know what is. Plus, that is why i'm a firm technical person. Because you need to track what they do, not what they say. Often times, you'll realise that when BBs issue a "BUY" call, they're selling by the truckloads behind the investors backs. Recent cases in point: SMB, HPL. HPL especially was pure manipulation. The days of the F1 hype, the charts showed BBs selling, small fries buying. Then what happens? news issue that "HPL is not involved in the F1 bid". whereupon HPL price dropped by quite a bit. thing is, when it dropped, what the charts showed was that small fries selling, BBs buying. and sure enough after that, one brokerage house (can't rem which) issued a BUY call on HPL with target price of $10+. what all these show, i'll leave to you all to judge. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
01-May-2007 19:46
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fwah...too many posts, can't keep up....reposting now 'cos first post somehow or other vanished... anyway, thanks to everyone for their well wishes. much appreciated. :) elf is really quite weak physically lah, so i fall sick quite easily. also 'cos i tend to do many things at one time, and it can get tiring. baseerahmed, godpa answered your qns rightly on the BBs. *applause, please* will elaborate further in another post fyi and for other forumers too. yea, my bunnie's certainly no bimbo man....very smart girl! good bunnie! keke. yongjiu/yongyuan. without revealing too much, my kitten's nick plays on his real name. :P and if i may venture a guess...yong jiu does mean longlasting (ie, evergreen), while yong yuan refers to forever. They're synonyms, really, as in same meaning different words. But very nuanced difference in mandarin though. yong yuan is forever, especially used in the context of relationships and reference to eternity. yong jiu refers to something that lasts for a long time (ie, not necessarily for ever). so someone whose spirit is 'forever young' for instance, the phrase is yong yuan qing chun, and not yong jiu qing chun. godpa!!! auughhh...there's no such phrase as yong qing!! *wail* hohokit, glad to know you've sold off your osim. :) need any TA done lemme know k. you might have to find me on the fellowship thread tho, since i don't often go into other threads, unless i'm vested in/interested in that counter. baseerahmed, you're certainly intelligent. so no worries, just discuss your ideas and all here; we're all just learning and helping each other along, after all. no worries if wrong. if you've noticed, i put a disclaimer on all my 'share advisory' posts, too. in effect we're all just individuals. the market is a whole big mechanism. so none of us, no matter how 'expert' can ever claim to be fully right. |
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fortunegal
Senior |
01-May-2007 19:25
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slimsk, next time will buzz me on my mobile (u have my mobile no through simonloh's class) and i will give u the details steps on the phone. I just do a trial test by sending through email on the pdf and it works. what i did is step 1. Save the .pdf file from the email into your computer, then step 2. Re-name the file as .exe file. to see the .pdf or see the .exe, under Window Explorer, menu: Tools -> Folder options. click on View tab, untick the option "hide extensions with known file types". |
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baseerahmed
Master |
01-May-2007 19:03
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geojam Sir, hahaha ! honestly , if I knew the answers I would definitely share my thoughts. I am a sharing person . In fact, I came to realise of BB manipulation as being real from elf 's earlier postings. Your reply made sense ...u asked if satisfied .... I said yes satisfied.... As a responsible person , I do not want to dish out wrong or half-baked information on things I do not have full knowledge of in a public forum like this ....hence my dodging on such matters .... hope u can understand where I am coming from . I am definitely ur junior in age and experience. hahaha . So, on both counts my respects to you again. hahaha. Ok , like u said ... lets cut the crap and let's move forward .. Cheers ! |
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geojam
Member |
01-May-2007 17:36
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harryp Don't make fun of me lah |
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harryp
Veteran |
01-May-2007 17:30
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hahaha... good one. yong jui = everlasting = forever. No wonder ur the respected godfather here. But in mandarin, I think there is a difference when using yong jui and yong yan. |
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geojam
Member |
01-May-2007 17:20
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Actually i am not good at mandarin.I left spore so many years ago and never even have much chance to speak not to say write or read. I was just guessing,to wake everybody up.Hahaha. |
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slimsk
Member |
01-May-2007 17:16
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Hi Bunbun, Got your ticket for your Europe trip? When r u leaving. Hi Fortungal, Thanks for your software but i cant change it from pdf back to exe file. Asked my IT manager n he said not possible to send such exe files via internet n not able to convert it back. However, he gave me another s/w that can do the same function to reduce photo size. Cant remember the name of the s/w n forgot to bring it home. In any case, thanks for your efforts. Hi Chinkiasu, I've also got a Canon but it's Powershot S50 auto camera with some manual funtions/options. Hope u'll be back n sharing more photos with us soon. Hi elf, Never spoken to u before but read quite a lot of your postings. Thanks for your selfless advice. Noticed that u seem to be always falling sick lately. Do take care of yourself, drink lots of water and have lots of sleep! Sleeping's the best medicine! Cheers Slimsk |
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slimsk
Member |
01-May-2007 17:15
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Hi Geojam, I think everygreen is chang qing and not yong qing. But then again i could be wrong.... |
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