Merkel succeeded overwhelmingly elected to a third victory in the German Chancellor, Helmut Kohl became since 1990 after winning the German history of the first electoral victory ushered in the largest female prime minister. Merkel will surpass Thatcher become Europe's longest-serving female leaders.

ZDF (ZDF) Local 22 evening 8:57 report is expected this election, Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) party alliance, won 41.8% voter support. Social Democratic Alliance Party opponent (SPD) got 25.5 percent support rate.

German parliamentary elections announced preliminary estimates (Note: the official website data updated in real time, following Wall Street knowledge of real-time news coverage GMT 8:01): 

Merkel coalition (CDU and CSU) has taken into account in all areas to win 41.5% of the voted ballot

SPD25.7%, the Left Party (LINKE) 8.6%, the Greens (GRN) 8.4%, the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) 4.8%, anti-euro party Afd 4.7%.

Prior to NBC reported that 42.5% of German voters supported Merkel coalition, which hit a conservative party since 1990, the highest since German reunification support rate.

Earlier polls predicted that Merkel's coalition party will be an advantage to become the seat of the majority party in the House of Commons, which is the World War II from 1957 Federal Republic of Germany's first Prime Minister Adenauer (Konrad Adenauer) to achieve the second time since his election the best results.

Although this Houmokeer league lead than the majority party requirements, momentum remains strong euro is not reduced. Currently the euro against the dollar (1.3528, -0.0002, -0.01%) firmly stand on the 1.3520 line.

After winning the election, Merkel will face the first time since the formation of the ruling " grand coalition" of the task.

As Merkel ally favored the LDP election defeat in the House of Commons, missed cabinet, she must find a new alliance party. September 23, leaders of various parties to the talks to discuss matters relating to the ruling coalition, the ruling coalition's consultation usually lasts 4-6 weeks.

If you want to select allies, her choice will be limited to traditional rival Social Democrats (SPD) or eligible to participate in the first cabinet of the Greens.

There was no one party expressed support for the future of the ruling coalition.

Merkel government's first finance minister Steinbrueck reiterated that he would not serve in the new government

 

QE contraction mystery when market turmoil will

The Fed announced on the 18th to maintain a monthly asset purchases unchanged at $ 85 billion, the market by surprise, once triggered a global stock markets and other risky assets collectively rose. However, in the St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that may start in October after slowing the process of purchase bonds, stocks and precious metals prices down quickly.

Analysts believe that U.S. economic growth is still slow, the Fed exit monetary easing measures is unknown, but the potential of the U.S. budget negotiations has just kicked off, investors need to assess the uncertainty, the short-term will be on the sidelines expected market volatility may increase.

　 Exit " boots" to be landed

Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting later in the latest accident on hold and lowered growth expectations for the U.S. economy, exceeding the market widely expected. Federal Open Market Committee said it would wait until the economy stabilizes more signal appears, will begin to adjust the speed of asset purchases.

The Fed's decision to make the debt purchase market slowdown is expected to once again produce a specific time differences. Goldman Sachs said in a report released on the 18th of December is expected the Fed will purchase bonds began to slow down, and in the end of September 2014 purchase of debt, which is better than previously expected time was delayed for three months. Goldman Sachs also expects the Fed to be early in 2016 for the first time raised the federal funds rate.

Goldman Sachs economists said, is expected to begin in December slowed purchase debt based on two grounds, first Bernanke has stressed the Fed hopes to assess the economic rise in mortgage interest rates and tighter financial conditions after they have steady growth, and in the end of October monetary policy meeting before the U.S. economic data is limited. Second, the Fed's monetary policy in December will arrange regular press conference and updated economic assessment report, which help to explain its policies and measures.

Analysts also this year the Fed began to slow down in the debt purchase was questioned. Chapdelaine, president of foreign exchange trading Borthwick believes that the current U.S. economic growth has not yet seen to " stick to the point where you can put aside the Fed" debt purchase plan is still " economic crutch."

The Fed's latest high-level speech of the Fed monetary policy uncertainty further. St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the 20th, said the second half of the expected improvement in the economy there is no " real" is the impact on the Federal Reserve in the latest meeting, decided not to cut debt purchase the main factor, which is a " very difficult decision." But he also said the Fed is entirely possible monetary policy in October announced the start of regular meeting of the scale of debt reduction options, as it is expected the next few quarters inflation will rise, and further growth in the job market also increased the probability of debt reduction options. Brad is a vote in favor of dovish Fed kept policy unchanged one of the officials.

Kansas City Fed President George also publicly stated on the 20th, the labor market has been " significant" improvement postpone purchase debt reduction may make the market size will be mistaken economic prospects. George said the past few months, the Fed be costly to reduce the debt purchase market scale preparation, and postpone purchase of debt reduction " caused confusion" will make the Fed faces credibility and predictability challenges. George has the right to vote this year, monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee against maintaining ultra-loose term stimulus hawks.

Fed's next policy meeting will be held October 29-30, 2009 meeting, regular meetings so far is not yet a news conference arrangements. However, in the 18th Bernanke said the Fed may announce at any regular meeting slowdown in debt purchase, and may be related to changes in temporary arrangement conference call with the media and marketing communications.

　 Raised concerns about fiscal problems

In the latest monetary policy statement, the Fed decided to maintain existing assets in explaining the reason for buying the size that fiscal policy tightening and rising mortgage rates, the economy under pressure, " In recent months, tightening fiscal environment, if this This trend continues, it could improve the economy and the job market slowed down. "

America's 2013 fiscal year will end on September 30, but so far Congress has not passed any information about the next fiscal year budget proposal. Besides the U.S. federal government debt hit a size limit may be in October. If Congress and the White House in the coming weeks on the new budget and can not raise the debt ceiling to reach an agreement, the U.S. government will be faced with the possibility of debt default and closing, which will lead to new concerns.

Bernanke's press conference on the 18th, said if you can not raise the debt ceiling to avoid a government shutdown, it may be on the financial markets and the economy have very serious consequences. Because of financial problems, including a range of factors, including concerns about the Fed's latest economic outlook report will 2013 U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.3% three months ago, down from 2% -2.6% -2.3% record over the past year, the biggest drop in short-term forecast.

Pacific [-0.38% funding research report] Investment Management Company (PIMCO) Co-Chief Investment Officer Elvis Lee believes that the Fed is still very worried about the weak overall economic situation, so they preferred to maintain a loose policy braved extreme risk for too long, do not want early tightening.

September 20, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted to pass a bill to allow the Government to ensure that funding has been operating to December 15, but refused to Obama's health reform program funding. Obama then rebuked the Republican attempts to raise the debt ceiling and cut health care costs funded by bundling practices and that it would not reach the scale of forced debt ceiling breach caused the pressure to accept unreasonable demands made by congressional Republicans and with the negotiations. Bipartisan outset of the negotiations shows great differences that outsiders would feel worried.

Market volatility will increase

In the 18th Federal Reserve kept constant progress of existing assets purchased after U.S. stocks rose sharply, the S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Index [0.16%] both closed at a record high. Every other day of the Asia-Pacific and European markets follow Wall Street rally, especially after the Federal Reserve cut due to concerns about quantitative easing setback suffered by Indonesia, Malaysia and other stock market rebound is particularly evident. Meanwhile the price of gold and silver and other precious metals rallied. The New York Mercantile Exchange, the main gold (1319.90, -12.60, -0.95%) futures contract prices rose 4.22 percent in the 18th, to close at $ 1,365 an ounce, silver (21.49, -0.44, -2.01%) futures contract price rose 5.5%.

In last Friday Brad and George have been published to support the share of debt reduction after the speech, the U.S. stock market fell sharply on the 20th, basically taking the earlier monetary stimulus the Fed to maintain gains achieved after constant. As of the day the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.2 percent, the highest over the biggest single-day decline in a month, the S & P 500 index fell 0.7 percent, the Nasdaq [microblogging] Composite Index fell 0.4%. Gold and silver prices fell in tandem, New York gold futures prices supplied by the main force on the 20th fell by 2.7 percent, at $ 1,332.50 an ounce, silver futures fell 6.4 percent, to $ 21.80 an ounce.

Market analysts believe that the market rally rapid conclusion suggests that investors are considering the next step how to act, rather than rush into the market. Allianz U.S. investment strategist Hooper believes that the market is not yet clear why the Fed started to slow down debt purchase, while the upcoming U.S. budget negotiations may make many investors on the sidelines. Rockwell Global Capital Cardillo, chief market economist pointed out, the market worried about the next question will be the U.S. Congress budget battle, which could make the market too much for some.

Remittance Network Sept. 21 hearing - " Yama told you three more dead, who would keep people to just before dawn." This week (September 16 -20 week), the Fed will undoubtedly become the market to determine the core strength. Summers withdrawal from Fed chairman cause the dollar sharply lower on Monday, the week the Federal Reserve announced a surprise $ 85 billion a month to maintain debt purchase the same size, the market surprise. Then to the final doves leader Brad said that in October there is likely to reduce QE, resulting in gold and silver has fallen sharply. It can be said that the Fed this week's every move, sparked a wave in the market.

In this September has experienced the most exciting week, investors are still found, QE sword still hanging overhead. Future market, turn back, " observed U.S. data - interpretation of Fed officials speak - assess the resolution next Fed move," the old road up. Perhaps, there are a lot of investors for this " reincarnation" fatigued, there are some investors will remain this bored. However, no matter where is a tragedy this week, your income is too is lost, the market will move in the next step by step. Survival of the fittest, is always the same truth in this market.

Of course, back to the market news perspective, despite the current September " big month" has passed a half, the most exciting resolution Fed has sadly ended. However, this does not mean that investors can right next to the market lightly. Next week the market will continue to face a lot of risk events, including the Federal Reserve officials on economic and monetary policy measures of the latest assessment and expectations, the latest developments in the U.S. financial crisis, as well as the upcoming weekend's German elections, will become the next market to decide key.

Technically, the dollar index opened low this week, the final single week fell 1.32 percent. In the weeks since the low of 80.01 refreshed February, it also fell below the shock box in recent weeks interval. However, the good news is now the United States has not dropped below 80 means the integer points, is expected in the short term, the market is an important psychological support will be able to bring some support for the dollar. After an afternoon rest after the rally may still lack. Above the resistance may be concerned about 81.55 near the bottom if the fall 80 mark, it will point to the low for the year 78.92.

This week hot Review



Summers withdrawal Fed chairman, for the market sow doves " seed"

Earlier this week, the first big event affecting the market is undoubtedly " Summers exit Fed chairman about race," the report, the event so that non-US currencies against the U.S. dollar opened higher across the board Monday, the Australian dollar is a high open-hundred points.

The Wall Street Journal reported that former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers on September 15 calling U.S. President Barack Obama, which means that its exit on one of the next Fed chairman post race. Summers to Barack Obama on the phone after the letter said, " I have to admit that my election will cause further more intense turbulence, which is the Federal Reserve, the current government and even the current economic recovery in the United States are unfavorable." .

Obama said in a statement that he accepted Summers' exit decisions. Obama will Summers described as " my team together experienced the worst economic crisis of the important members" " His power, wisdom and leadership in rescuing the economy, and promote the process of credit huge progress."

Summers and Yellen same as the next Fed chairman candidate. Summers's exit means that Obama needs in other potential candidates in the appointment of the next Fed chairman, including Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, a former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Cover Turner.

Summers has opposed the quantitative easing monetary policy compared with the control of the economy, Summers tend to fiscal policy hawks representative. Once the exit while Summers, the most likely candidate to take over the Fed chairman, undoubtedly fell Yellen's head. Since the Fed Yellen is currently being considered as a more dovish tendencies, the global currency markets open on Monday after a major earthquake triggered a series of surprising.

　 Fed unexpectedly anything, the global market completely " shocked"

It can be said on Wednesday the Fed resolution, is undoubtedly week, this month, even during the most market attention since a major risk events. In advance, including many well-known global investment bank, hedge fund, the Federal Reserve Deep Throat, etc., are widely expected the Fed is expected to announce cuts at this meeting QE scale, however, the result of the resolution but ultimately the Fed to tell the world: Sometimes, I hope the greater the disappointment larger, say nothing expect the Fed to be market led by the nose.

Federal Reserve (FED) on Wednesday announced $ 85 billion a month to maintain debt purchase the same size. The Fed bought $ 45 billion a month longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds, the monthly purchase of $ 40 billion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and maintain funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% range.

The Fed reiterated that as long as the unemployment rate is higher than the 6.5% expected inflation one to two years less than 2.5%, and the longer-term inflation expectations is no upward trend, the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate at 0-0.25% range.

17 officials of the 11 expected by the end of 2015 interest rates will remain at or below 1.0% 17 officials of the 14 expected by the end of 2014 interest rates will remain at or below 0.25% 17 officials of the 10 expected by the end of 2015 rates will maintain or less than 0.1%.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) said at a news conference later, just when the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent consider raising interest rates until after the employment market situation far less than the expected level, but still improved. The Fed also said its exit quantitative easing (QE) is no timetable, and he is expected within a few years after 2016 interest rates will rise to 4%.

The Fed's decision is clearly contrary to inaction investor expectations. Ever since Wednesday, a series of global financial markets, the records were broken: Gold (1319.90, -12.60, -0.95%) since January 2009 hit the best single-day performance 5-year U.S. Treasury yields hit 2009 3 months since the largest single-day drop dollar index hit this year, the third-largest single-day decline U.S. real estate builders plate stock hit in June 2012 the largest increase since Dow Jones and S & P record.

It can be said that the Fed's decision to make after including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and other most internationally renowned investment bank forecasts all come to nothing, and even the Fed news agency said the Wall Street Journal reporter Hilsenrath also did not expect the Fed will choose inaction .

　 Fed QE first time point and then cut into controversy: October or December?

And if you want to think about the Fed QE after the resolution of the discussion will be temporarily shelved, it is clearly wrong. On Friday, the Fed's hawk-dove representatives of the two factions were George and Brad made a speech. And ultimately, had previously been regarded as doves diehard Brad said that in October there is likely to reduce QE, resulting in gold and silver has fallen sharply.

St. Louis Fed President Bullard on September 20 that the Fed might change its policy meeting in October, or small-scale contraction bond purchase program, and in the just-concluded meeting of inaction is more reluctant decision. He also said that October's meeting has not been arranged news conference as planned, but can be temporarily arranged.

Although Brad is not clear that in October he would support reducing QE program, but the market is currently a member of the banner as doves, accident QE problem in reduced somewhat relenting, the market was still quite surprised. Friday morning in New York silver (21.48, -0.45, -2.05%) fell 6.3 percent up, hit the biggest decline since July. Gold fell 2.4 percent up, hit the biggest decline since June.

The foreseeable future for the first time when the Federal Reserve reduced the QE debate will continue. Of course, the current mainstream market perspective, the reduced support in December for the first time, still more. A well-known foreign media on September 20 announced the findings show that most analysts expect the Federal Reserve will purchase bonds in December began to cut the size. Because by the next Fed chairman and the U.S. government debt ceiling two problems interference has 42 analysts surveyed expect the Fed to start cutting in December QE, only six that October meeting begins.

Next Week

The Fed this week, " Fun" , after the global market next week, investors still can not be too complacent. Perhaps, in September of the event which is not destined month will be especially idle for one week.

Sunday (22 September) will be held in Germany in the 18th Bundestag elections. Although, from the current situation, most Merkel was elected prime minister for the third time, but her ability to maintain the right-wing coalition which still doubt. If Merkel's ruling coalition instability, possibly making her euro policies are more complex, and the euro constitutes suppressed.

Last Emnid poll results show that the German Prime Minister Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel) where the center-right coalition in a slight advantage to 45-44 ahead of its left-wing opposition party. Another two German pollster Forssa (Forsa) and Alun Ba Institute (Allensbach) results released Friday showed, with the left-right opposition party in the state of evenly matched.

Moreover, as the U.S. debt ceiling deadline approaches, the federal government's fiscal problems will once again become the core of market attention. Previously, industry analysts have pointed out that the outlook for the U.S. fiscal problems fear, may also lead to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday the main reason for inaction choice. And Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben S. Bernanke) on the day of his speech at the press conference also stressed the U.S. fiscal policy risks. This makes the news also continues to pay close attention to by the parties.

U.S. House of Representatives on Friday passed a federal government agency's short-term financing method, aimed at addressing the U.S. government on October 1 to December 15 period of short-term financing problems, to prevent government agencies shut down, but the exchange is to cut Medicare funding fund, which is also bound to be subject to Obama's veto, which means that the recent financial crisis in the United States is still no solution.

Of course, the global economic data next week, there are also many highlights. In Europe and the world's major economies, manufacturing PMI data will be released next week, focus on Anglo-American GDP, U.S. and Japanese inflation data will also have appeared. In September, the Fed on hold, these data will clearly affect the quality of the decision-making toward the next major central banks. Moreover, Fed officials will continue to be a big speech the same topic. Kansas Fed President George next week, the Chicago Fed President Evans and Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota will continue to speak on the topic of reducing QE is still worth investors pay close attention.

Sina Financial News September 23, according to the Hong Kong Observatory 9:00 news release, Typhoon " Usagi" makes the No. 8 Southwest Gale or Storm Signal is in force. Observatory announced that it would change before ten o'clock in the morning, 3 Strong Wind Signal. By HKEx trading rules, because Hong Kong Typhoon Signal No. 8 or above 9:00 is still in force, the morning will be suspended from trading may resume trading from 13:00.

HKEx will issue an announcement in due course. The Hong Kong Observatory said, according to the current forecast track, and " Usagi" Gale relevant range later in the morning to leave the Pearl River Estuary. If Hong Kong is to gale force wind weakens districts below the Hong Kong Observatory will consider ten o'clock in the morning or before 3 Strong Wind Signal change.

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