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Latest Forum Topics / Genting Sing    Last:0.765    -0.005  Post Reply
GenSp starts to move up again
pharoah88
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12-Nov-2010 17:02     
 
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6153  Game Plan

13:59:02   2.130   6,153,000   Bought From Seller


11:53:26 2.140 2,400,000 Sold To Buyer


11:47:55 2.140 4,800,000 Sold To Buyer


11:19:25 2.150 1,441,000 Sold To Buyer


11:19:11 2.150 1,905,000 Bought From Seller


11:17:59 2.150 1,428,000 Sold To Buyer
11:17:59 2.150 298,000 Sold To Buyer
11:17:58 2.150 2,794,000 Sold To Buyer


11:13:36 2.160 3,000,000 Bought From Seller


10:47:07 2.160 1,017,000 Sold To Buyer


10:46:50 2.160 2,487,000 Bought From Seller


sIgnal

10:32:03  2.160  6,000,000  Bought From Seller


10:16:53 2.150 1,382,000 Bought From Seller


10:16:47 2.150 1,500,000 Bought From Seller


10:02:44 2.130 1,790,000 Sold To Buyer


09:54:58 2.140 1,397,000 Sold To Buyer
09:54:58 2.140 1,603,000 Sold To Buyer
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enghou
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12-Nov-2010 16:58     
 
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Genting Singapore – Singapore
HOLD
(Maintained)

Results
• Genting Singapore’s (GENS) 3Q10 EBITDA and net profit fell to
S$347.6m (-31.2% qoq) and S$187.8m (-52.6% qoq), at the lower end of
consensus expectations, but in line with our expectation. The estimated
3Q10 gaming EBITDA fell about 30% qoq to S$320m-330m. Resorts
World Sentosa’s revenue fell 15% qoq reflecting principally an estimated
21% qoq fall in VIP revenues and 5% fall in mass market revenues. The
VIP-mass market gross gaming revenue (GGR) mix was about 55%:45%.
• Ebitda margins disappointingly declined 11.2ppt qoq to 46.7%, which
management attributed to a normalised win rate of around 2.85%
(estimate for 2Q10: >3.5%), and cost ramp up of non-gaming operations.
We reckon also (taking the cue from Marina Bay Sands’ results) that
marketing expenses and commission rate related to the VIP segment
rose as well.
• Positively, we reckon that the rolling chip volume eased only slightly
qoq, and dependency on locals have waned, with firm patronage from
China patrons (10-20% of mass market GGR, >20% of VIP GGR).
Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec (S$m) 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F
Net turnover 630.7 491.2 2,967.4 3,509.9 3,810.8
EBITDA 27.1 (52.1) 1,357.8 1,574.7 1,683.9
Operating profit (15.8) (89.9) 1,049.7 1,228.0 1,335.0
Net profit (rep./act.) (124.8) (277.6) 273.0 885.7 991.3
Net profit (adj.) (57.2) (167.0) 723.3 885.7 991.3
EPS (S$ cent) (0.5) (1.4) 6.0 7.3 8.2
P/E (x) (483.1) (165.6) 38.2 31.2 27.9
P/BV (x) 10.1 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 1,078.3 (560.9) 21.5 18.6 17.4
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net margin (%) (19.8) (56.5) 9.2 25.2 26.0
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) 11.0 23.8 33.0 16.9 0.1
Interest cover (x) 0.4 (0.9) 8.0 9.8 12.1
ROE (%) (4.1) (8.1) 6.4 18.3 17.1
Consensus net profit - - 708.4 1,070.8 1,215.7
UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 1.02 0.83 0.82
Source: Genting Singapore PLC , Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
Regional Morning Notes
Friday, November 12, 2010

• Improved 4Q10 trends foreseen. Daily GGR could sustain at S$10m
(+10% qoq) in the seasonally stronger 4Q10, reflecting better rolling chip
volume and drop, due to seasonality (e.g. long school holidays in
Malaysia and Singapore; also note that 3Q10 patronage was also slightly
affected by ‘ghost month’ in August). We also understand that the luck
factor from mid-October has improved, from a poor start.
• However, market leadership could slip from 3Q10’s 53% share, with
RWS’ daily GGR in October trailing MBS’ daily GGR of S$10.9m through
the first half of October.
• Too much hope on junket? GENS hopes for Singapore to award its first
junket operator license by early-11, and that the junket business would be
significant (although management is unwilling to speculate on the size).
However, our forecasts have not factored in big bottom line contributions
from this segment as: a) the issuance of junket licence may be delayed
until after Singapore’s general election, b) participation from junket
operators may be limited (considering Singapore’s onerous disclosure
requirements), c) casinos are already directly dealing with many junkets’
patrons, and d) margins from this segment is a lot thinner due to high
commission rates (potentially up to 1.6% vs industry average of 1.3%).
Earnings Revision/Risk
• No change to our 2010-12 earnings forecasts, which impute a 2011F
GGR of S$6.0b-6.5b and 50% share for RWS. While there could be some
upside to our GGR forecast, there could be downside at the casino
operation’s EBITDA margin (3Q10’s estimated 51% is below our 2011
forecast of 54%). For 2011, we expect RWS’ casino operation to sustain
an average quarterly EBITDA of S$350m in 2011.
Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain HOLD with fair price of S$1.85 or 15x FY11 EV/EBITDA in
acknowledgement that a bull market scenario can sustain a high
EV/EBITDA multiple to GENS. GENS also trades at a rich 13x 2011
EV/EBITDA even assuming the top end of consensus EBITDA (S$2.2b).
While the shares are trading above our fundamental valuation, we retain
our HOLD call for its good long-term prospects. Entry price: S$1.85.
Share Price Catalyst
• Sharp recovery of earnings.
• Legalisation of junket operators.
• Japan legalising casino, although the timeline can still be remote.
• On the negative side, any evidence of slowing gaming revenue


momentum could cause a significant pullback.

Source: UOB Kayhian Research

Make love more, don't make more enemies 
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pharoah88
Supreme
12-Nov-2010 16:52     
 
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09:49:07 2.150 1,698,000 Sold To Buyer

09:41:42 2.160 1,103,000 Bought From Seller

09:41:21 2.160 1,501,000 Bought From Seller
09:41:20 2.160 2,506,000 Bought From Seller

DAY  HIGH

09:39:28   2.170   243,000   Bought From Seller

4195  Game  Plan  [RegUlar  Old  Timer]

09:37:45 2.160 4,195,000 Bought From Seller

09:26:40 2.160 1,077,000 Sold To Buyer

09:20:15 2.150 5,050,000 Bought From Seller

09:20:13 2.150 2,312,000 Bought From Seller

09:20:10 2.150 2,006,000 Bought From Seller

09:17:48 2.150 1,215,000 Bought From Seller

09:16:30 2.140 1,500,000 Bought From Seller

09:14:38 2.140 2,895,000 Bought From Seller

09:13:02 2.140 1,014,000 Bought From Seller

09:11:39 2.130 2,005,000 Bought From Seller

09:09:42 2.120 2,010,000 Bought From Seller

09:08:05 2.120 1,000,000 Sold To Buyer

09:07:34 2.120 1,037,000 Bought From Seller

09:05:48 2.120 2,798,000 Bought From Seller

09:03:34 2.110 1,010,000 Bought From Seller

09:02:58 2.110 1,002,000 Bought From Seller

09:02:33 2.101 1,120,000 X

09:02:15 2.110 1,005,000 Bought From Seller

09:02:04 2.100 1,115,000 Bought From Seller

09:01:34 2.090 1,050,000 Bought From Seller

09:01:03 2.090 1,756,000 Sold To Buyer

09:00:41 2.090 1,112,000 Sold To Buyer

sUper  trIple qUIck pIck

08:59:03 2.100 16,125,000 Bought From Seller
08:59:03 2.100 3,145,000 Bought From Seller



pharoah88      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:37) Posted:



Friday:  12 11 2010  prIce  actIOn

trIple  qUIck pIck  [7%  GST  dIscOUnt]

Indices   12-Nov-2010 
STI Index 3,253.10  
-40.29
FTSE Bursa KLCI 1,500.55  
-13.15
Hang Seng Index 24,222.58  
-477.72
JSX Index 3,637.08  
-107.54
SET Index 1,011.00  
-18.86
PHS Composite 4,076.68  
-67.73
Dow Jones 11,283.10  
-73.94
NASDAQ 0.00  
+0.00
S&P 500 1,213.54  
-5.17
NYSE Composite 7,723.24  
-24.22
AMEX Composite 2,133.51  
-8.00
All Ordinaries 4,778.80  
-31.55
KOSPI Composite 1,913.12  
-1.61
Nikkei 225 9,724.81  
-136.65
FTSE 100 5,741.89  
-73.34
SSE Composite 2,985.43  
-162.31
SZSE Composite 1,296.95  
-84.53


 
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Sept11
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12-Nov-2010 16:50     
 
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Latest:

Genting Singapore’s target price raised to $2.65 by Credit Suisse

12 November 2010

Credit Suisse raises Genting Singapore (G13.SG) target to $2.65 vs $1.68, implying 16% potential upside, keeps Outperform.
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Sept11
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12-Nov-2010 16:44     
 
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 Alert Admin 		STI losses narrow down.Shortish in action?
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Leinadgnow
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12-Nov-2010 16:42     
 
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Parabolic Sar maintains a buy trend on Genting SP. Flag formation at 2.44 before dropping (thanks to spiderman)


 

However RSI and stochastics indicates a huge overbought previously and is in a midst of consolidation and selling off (see RSI and stochastics K%) large sell down yesterday and today.. not unusal because of G-20 G-7 as well as the euro/ usa problem .. however, on hindsight including some FA of the world, Spain and Portgual got rating cut.. euro going down even more.. usa money going up ... as u all know.. usa money very linked to their shares.. when usa $ like hit.. pple buy gold.. buy equities buy this buy that.. but when it goes up .. then pple rather put in safely locked away. These issues combine with the fact of the consolidation may lead to problems in the near future.. i have gotta see the candle stick chart today as well as the updates of all major details and analysis before i can formulate a solid hypothesis base on facts and not my own opinion. 

 

Base on pure opinion, i think be500 and sx5e wouldn't climb today.. Nikkei and china and hk down by a HUGE percentage.. 1.39, 6.21 and 1.93 ... All market consolidating + worried .. leading to not a good next week... futures also down ....

 

Besides, you all know the story of how december, jan and feb to the next fiscal year is always a sell down period right .... simply because of these reasons.

 

1). lets say you are a major investor working in a BB ... your portfoilo shows a 20% increase and it's pegged to your bonus.. but if you threw away stocks that were laggards or lesser growing.. your portfoilo would show 30-35% increase.. would you not sell these shares now to show a good performance get your bonus.. and buy them back the next year? 

 2). Major dividend payouts and holiday season.. do play a part too..  certain industries are affected by the holiday season i.e. Airlines and transport etc. you would buy them .. but you lack the capital to buy them .. what would you do? Sell those that you have already made money in... bar those giving out dividends... and invest in these seasonal industries right?

 

Base on these 2 intuitive gut feeling of what i would do if i were a Full time hedger or trader.. i would invest in genting .. because holiday season.. so i think next 1 or 2 week problem problem.. buy by december.. genting will get back right on track and do even better.. Just my own 2 cents opinion that is not base on facts or solid reasoning. It;'s only logical reasoning ot invest in genting during this period.. however, all other industries.. i'm not too sure.. so ya.. there you have it.

 

Oh  about 60% region which is not oversold.. did u see ytd's charts? dropping so steeply towards 30% :S hahahaha meaning oversold soon.... and you say not oversold right.. you are right.. but did u realize before this.. it was over bought at above 70%? what goes up must come down.. so theortically the RSI is right.. was overbought at 70% coming down towards the 30% .. and then buy back up again.. and that's why i say by decemeber should be corrected.

 

demand and supply.. if it is overbought.. or going on uptrend towards overbuying .. price will increase.. people buying what.. if going down towards the oversold... meaning pple selling right? price go down .. so you just wait till bottoming out of RSI  then rising back up to buy lor.. question is when is the best time to buy to maximize your profit. Time lag of about 1 month for it to correct la.. 
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Hulumas
Supreme
12-Nov-2010 16:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Especting price to go down to about Sgd. 1.60, then I start recovery buying again.

pharoah88      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:37) Posted:



Friday:  12 11 2010  prIce  actIOn

trIple  qUIck pIck  [7%  GST  dIscOUnt]

Indices   12-Nov-2010 
STI Index 3,253.10  
-40.29
FTSE Bursa KLCI 1,500.55  
-13.15
Hang Seng Index 24,222.58  
-477.72
JSX Index 3,637.08  
-107.54
SET Index 1,011.00  
-18.86
PHS Composite 4,076.68  
-67.73
Dow Jones 11,283.10  
-73.94
NASDAQ 0.00  
+0.00
S&P 500 1,213.54  
-5.17
NYSE Composite 7,723.24  
-24.22
AMEX Composite 2,133.51  
-8.00
All Ordinaries 4,778.80  
-31.55
KOSPI Composite 1,913.12  
-1.61
Nikkei 225 9,724.81  
-136.65
FTSE 100 5,741.89  
-73.34
SSE Composite 2,985.43  
-162.31
SZSE Composite 1,296.95  
-84.53


 
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crystal1818
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12-Nov-2010 16:38     
 
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Can share with me too?

Thanks.



Leinadgnow      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:18) Posted:

epilew.. sent you a pm regarding today's MA20 and the charting platform i use and what i feel are the best 4 indicators so far that has kept me profitable :) hope it works for you as it has work for me.

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pharoah88
Supreme
12-Nov-2010 16:37     
 
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Friday:  12 11 2010  prIce  actIOn

trIple  qUIck pIck  [7%  GST  dIscOUnt]

Indices   12-Nov-2010 
STI Index 3,253.10  
-40.29
FTSE Bursa KLCI 1,500.55  
-13.15
Hang Seng Index 24,222.58  
-477.72
JSX Index 3,637.08  
-107.54
SET Index 1,011.00  
-18.86
PHS Composite 4,076.68  
-67.73
Dow Jones 11,283.10  
-73.94
NASDAQ 0.00  
+0.00
S&P 500 1,213.54  
-5.17
NYSE Composite 7,723.24  
-24.22
AMEX Composite 2,133.51  
-8.00
All Ordinaries 4,778.80  
-31.55
KOSPI Composite 1,913.12  
-1.61
Nikkei 225 9,724.81  
-136.65
FTSE 100 5,741.89  
-73.34
SSE Composite 2,985.43  
-162.31
SZSE Composite 1,296.95  
-84.53


 
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epliew
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12-Nov-2010 16:21     
 
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what is a PM ?

 

4 indicators.  I am using nexus chart which is a free tool, but sometimes, it does not have the latest updates.



Leinadgnow      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:18) Posted:

epilew.. sent you a pm regarding today's MA20 and the charting platform i use and what i feel are the best 4 indicators so far that has kept me profitable :) hope it works for you as it has work for me.

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epliew
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12-Nov-2010 16:19     
 
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 Alert Admin 		wow... santa claus ?

bishan22      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:18) Posted:

Yup. Bot some today for my Xmas present. Hv been eyeing a long time after my 2nd cycle profit. Good luck all. Smiley

Sept11      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:15) Posted:

One of the Great Singapore Sale (7% off) retail price if u buy now @ 2.12....
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Leinadgnow
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12-Nov-2010 16:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		epilew.. sent you a pm regarding today's MA20 and the charting platform i use and what i feel are the best 4 indicators so far that has kept me profitable :) hope it works for you as it has work for me.
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bishan22
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12-Nov-2010 16:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yup. Bot some today for my Xmas present. Hv been eyeing a long time after my 2nd cycle profit. Good luck all. Smiley

Sept11      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:15) Posted:

One of the Great Singapore Sale (7% off) retail price if u buy now @ 2.12....
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Sept11
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12-Nov-2010 16:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		One of the Great Singapore Sale (7% off) retail price if u buy now @ 2.12....
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epliew
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12-Nov-2010 16:12     
 
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tell u a small secret ......

 

i am lucky because early in the morning, i queue at 2.10 ..... but i did not get it..... but went up to 2.17

afternoon, change to 2.07 queue and still i did not get it......

 



epliew      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 16:04) Posted:

Roger, i have not enter...... but very tempted too!  but like i said, some of us already bought before the announcement with anticipation of good results are keeping those we already had paid up..... unfortunately, things took a turn.......

could you give me hint at 4:30pm...... if it has broken the MA20 .....

 

 



Leinadgnow      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 15:41) Posted:

hello epilew :D i didnt say buy! i say wait for monday to see if up or down cause right now it is in the middle of the bollingerband and below MA20.. possible to buy if it starts to move towards the MA20 and break it, going towards the bollingerband.. :D i didn't say BUY NOW HOR hahaha


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limkt009
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12-Nov-2010 16:10     
 
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Opportunity to pickup cheap in GenSp. GenSp px should adjust down slightly based on Q3 results but the reporting was struck at the wrong timing with accelerated market degradation. The Q3 report is not that bad, this is evident in the number of buy calls from TP S$2.53-2.90.  
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epliew
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12-Nov-2010 16:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes, i agree fully with you.

Leinadgnow      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 15:05) Posted:



Can buy if you got holding power.. and if you feel that you wanna take the plunge and that genting will rise in your contra date settlement T+3 or T+5 days.. CheongCk.. my posts is to tell people who are already losing alot of money not to average down if they cannot afford to pay or lose the money within that T+3 or T+5 days.. cause you dunno what might happen in this 3 or 5 days.. No CLEAR signal up .. u say base on Analyst reports BUY BUY ..... what if goes down even more? you have to wait for CONFIRMATION .. see it going on the uptrend first then buy what.. it's like u telling me to buy.. when i see it getting redder and redder. .. makes no sense right... u lose like maybe 0.02 or 0.03 for the confirmation... and wait for market signal and ride it.. and be appreicative on ur gains.. rahter then u buy buy buy buy on a red and redder market.. and hope you get it right.. and hope the market turns... Hope .. greed .. fear and ignorance .... You are basing alot on hope and luck ...

 

Good luck to you then.

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epliew
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12-Nov-2010 16:04     
 
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Roger, i have not enter...... but very tempted too!  but like i said, some of us already bought before the announcement with anticipation of good results are keeping those we already had paid up..... unfortunately, things took a turn.......

could you give me hint at 4:30pm...... if it has broken the MA20 .....

 

 



Leinadgnow      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 15:41) Posted:

hello epilew :D i didnt say buy! i say wait for monday to see if up or down cause right now it is in the middle of the bollingerband and below MA20.. possible to buy if it starts to move towards the MA20 and break it, going towards the bollingerband.. :D i didn't say BUY NOW HOR hahaha

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pharoah88
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12-Nov-2010 15:51     
 
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天机不可泄漏

以免变天

INCEPTION  TIME



SnowCloud      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 15:10) Posted:

LOL !! Cheap sale cheap sale..like night market. Wakakakakaka !!

Pharoah..why are you so quiet ?!!



CheongCK      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 14:58) Posted:

Genting Singapore: 3Q10 results mostly within expectations Genting Singapore (GS) reported its 3Q10 results last evening. Revenue, which excludes the discontinued UK operations, hit S$744.0m versus S$12.1m in 3Q09. Net profit (including discontinued operations) came in at S$187.8m; core net profit at S$182.1m. For 9M10, revenue hit S$1964.8m, meeting 77.0% of our FY10 estimate, while net profit came in at S$565.6m, or 72.0% of our full-year forecast (both adjusted for discontinued operations). Going forward, GS expects the fourth quarter to perform better than the third, citing its appropriate offering for the family and vacation crowd. Management concurs that junkets could get their licenses in early 2011 and boost the gaming market further. But for now, we are maintaining our FY10 and FY11 estimates. As we are raising our long-term FCF rate from 2% to 2.5%, this also bumps up our DCF-fair value from S$2.38 to S$2.53. Maintain BUY.

Cheap Sale Cheap Sale

All rating agency rated up but market went on Cheap Sale

Today Only Today Only

BUY CALL $2.53 ---- $2.90
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btfans
Member
12-Nov-2010 15:43     
 
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Hey, just sharing some analyst reports for genting after all you bros shared so much on this thread over these days.

Do join up SJtraderslounge@yahoogroups.com
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