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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come! Post Reply Rate topic
Lucky03 Veteran	23-Sep-2013 09:21        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I doubt there are many serious long term investors these days. Even funds mgrs, esp young ones who are pressed for quarter to quarter or even month to months return. Moreover, remisiers are turning traders as they can't survive on those miserable trades they are handling and lower commission charges. The lower commission charges also indirectly contributed to increased short term trading as the spread is good enough to cover. Bottomline, it is a bid casino and that's what SGX wants to see. This is a new World Order. Having said that, I still believe a mid to long term time horizon is valid so long as we pay attention to both FA and TA to guide us and in between, may have to conduct some short term trade to balance portfolio. Sealteam6      ( Date: 23-Sep-2013 08:33) Posted: Sad to say, when I return to this forum under teamseal6. I have noticed the quality drop of the content provided. Most will talk abt charts, if not will brag abt how much thy made or even how good thy r by punting on stks. Quality is replaced by quantity. I believed those previous 'sound' forum contributor have also noticed tis, that's y thy left it. Anyway, spore market has changed alot. Most are in plays are those controlled by syndicates. Pennies and distressed assets which are built on hot air. Funds are just leaving spore financial market through the years and not coming back. Just look at the stocks, thy are hitting lower highs through the years. Y? Bcos those funds that exited are not coming back to our small penny stk market.
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Sealteam6 Member	23-Sep-2013 08:33        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Sad to say, when I return to this forum under teamseal6. I have noticed the quality drop of the content provided. Most will talk abt charts, if not will brag abt how much thy made or even how good thy r by punting on stks. Quality is replaced by quantity. I believed those previous 'sound' forum contributor have also noticed tis, that's y thy left it. Anyway, spore market has changed alot. Most are in plays are those controlled by syndicates. Pennies and distressed assets which are built on hot air. Funds are just leaving spore financial market through the years and not coming back. Just look at the stocks, thy are hitting lower highs through the years. Y? Bcos those funds that exited are not coming back to our small penny stk market.
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Sealteam6 Member	23-Sep-2013 08:06        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Most of wilmar sales are denominated in yuan/usd. Most of the cost are in rupiah. Yes, most analysts are warning on rupiah sales companies, so be wary of those companies who have major sales component in Indonesia or even in India. If your sales & cost both coincide of the same currencies, then no issue spathway      ( Date: 22-Sep-2013 22:31) Posted: Just start to look at the commodity stock recently. I am having the impression that commodity is going for a turnaround soon. Most of the Indonesia related commodities are shun because of Rupiah has weaken so much, while the company has still hold a substantial debt in USD. I will start to monitor these few stocks. Lucky03      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:06) Posted: Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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Sealteam6 Member	23-Sep-2013 08:00        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's not the number of subsidiaries that is complicated. It's the need of them to deal both in fx trades & forward/future contracts that is complicated. If you look at all the global companies, which of them dnt have bunch of subsidiaries that you dnt know y they existed. If you want to grow, it's cheaper & easier to set up a company at the point of origination or final sales Lucky03      ( Date: 22-Sep-2013 23:18) Posted: Commodity companies structure is also quite complex as they tend to have many subsidiaries and associated companies with varying shareholdings. There are many announcement of acquisitions and disposals and not easy to assess the impact. spathway      ( Date: 22-Sep-2013 22:31) Posted: Just start to look at the commodity stock recently. I am having the impression that commodity is going for a turnaround soon. Most of the Indonesia related commodities are shun because of Rupiah has weaken so much, while the company has still hold a substantial debt in USD. I will start to monitor these few stocks.
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Lucky03 Veteran	22-Sep-2013 23:18        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Commodity companies structure is also quite complex as they tend to have many subsidiaries and associated companies with varying shareholdings. There are many announcement of acquisitions and disposals and not easy to assess the impact. spathway      ( Date: 22-Sep-2013 22:31) Posted: Just start to look at the commodity stock recently. I am having the impression that commodity is going for a turnaround soon. Most of the Indonesia related commodities are shun because of Rupiah has weaken so much, while the company has still hold a substantial debt in USD. I will start to monitor these few stocks. Lucky03      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:06) Posted: Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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spathway Member	22-Sep-2013 22:31        spathway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just start to look at the commodity stock recently. I am having the impression that commodity is going for a turnaround soon. Most of the Indonesia related commodities are shun because of Rupiah has weaken so much, while the company has still hold a substantial debt in USD. I will start to monitor these few stocks. Lucky03      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:06) Posted: Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 15:41        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks, Sealteam6. Great info ! I'll be looking to enter :) Sealteam6      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:48) Posted: All commo traders do benefit when commo price is high, bcos they can extract higher margin been middleman as they sell forward their estimated stocks while sourcing their stocks at the same time. There can never be perfect hedge as there is always the time lags of few days. As commo price decline, the margin that thy can extract oso thin out. That's how commo traders are affected by the commo trades. Not to worry abt the fakes, most of their china sales are done in bulk to their arranged buyers who have done biz w them for sometime already. Their sugar sales is still in their infancy stage. Will be encouraging but not fantastic yet. Major turnaround story on sales & earnings driver will still be centered ard its soya meal & oil sales in china as china hog & poutry demand stabilize & picks up from the bird flu. Too bad they did not do arbitrage w their soya meal by exporting more, if not thy can soften the impact of the bird flu during the 2nd q Lucky03      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:06) Posted: Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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Sealteam6 Member	21-Sep-2013 14:48        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	All commo traders do benefit when commo price is high, bcos they can extract higher margin been middleman as they sell forward their estimated stocks while sourcing their stocks at the same time. There can never be perfect hedge as there is always the time lags of few days. As commo price decline, the margin that thy can extract oso thin out. That's how commo traders are affected by the commo trades. Not to worry abt the fakes, most of their china sales are done in bulk to their arranged buyers who have done biz w them for sometime already. Their sugar sales is still in their infancy stage. Will be encouraging but not fantastic yet. Major turnaround story on sales & earnings driver will still be centered ard its soya meal & oil sales in china as china hog & poutry demand stabilize & picks up from the bird flu. Too bad they did not do arbitrage w their soya meal by exporting more, if not thy can soften the impact of the bird flu during the 2nd q Lucky03      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 14:06) Posted: Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 14:17        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just visited the Chinese site - http://www.oilcn.com/ Looks like the Chinese market is still tough. Wilmar brand for cooking oil in China is 金 龙 鱼 and they have issues with fakes on the market. Looks like their rising star is the recovery of the sugar price as palm oil recovery is still some way to go.
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 14:06        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks like I got the economic of commodity player like Wilmar wrong as my opinion was that rising commodity prices will be good for Wilmar. Apparently not quite true according to Investor Central ? See the link below : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/wilmar-international-ltd-catch-second-080000620.html
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 13:30        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Good observation. Funds today are running wild and making speculative trades or betting on spread of a tight range given their short term horizon and almost negligible fees. There are hardly serious mid to long term investors. However, they do get burnt at times, like the Minzhong case you mentioned. Oei Hong Leong just got limelight again for suing Goldman Sach for losing S$38m in less than a mth betting on Brazilian Real-Japanes Yen trade when he was caught off guard when Benanke announced plan to taper QE. Nothing compared to what he sued Citi Group in 2008 for S$1B ! These guys simply believe they can move the market with piles of cash that they are managing. They can't control the macro picture. So we should still pay attention to the real market (not just the SGX market) for guidance as they will eventually set the course. Sealteam6      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 12:50) Posted: If big sellers are there, looking at the other way, I also can say there are big buyers taking the sales. The truth is it's the same parties doing flipping up & dn with respect to china & HSI index. Left to right pocket, then later back right to left again. Do you believed for so long that funds have not sold out on wilmar? Wilmar have been ard this price range for how long? 6-8 mths? I think more than that.... The only way for wilmar to break out from this range is for the company to do something, mayb forcefully share buyback? Bcos you need to screw the funds doing this, these guys only answer to pain, and pain is through margin call like the deal done between minzhong & indofood. Do you believe indofood is so stupid to aquire minzhong at 1.12, with the price b4 hand is at 60+c? As a company aquirer, thy can just put up 70+c offer price & let the debacle drag on. Looking at the rebuttal of minzhong, it's weak rebuttal. Indofood can wait out for 6 mths, by which time, I dnt believe they cannot GO the company at a cheaper price. All this hanky panky stuff is happening, it's only do they wan to do it to screw the guys rigging their companies shares. However, with financing needs in mind, I doubt wilmar will do extra to benefit their shares. jackson5      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 11:23) Posted: There were always big sellers at this price level. Some BBs still have a lot to offload.
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Sealteam6 Member	21-Sep-2013 12:54        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's not only wilmar, its all the blue chips during market close matching. It's quarter end options & futures closing. Happening every 3rd week friday of every quarter. jackson5      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 12:42) Posted: More than 3 m shares , sold at 3.18 at yesterday closing .
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Sealteam6 Member	21-Sep-2013 12:50        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If big sellers are there, looking at the other way, I also can say there are big buyers taking the sales. The truth is it's the same parties doing flipping up & dn with respect to china & HSI index. Left to right pocket, then later back right to left again. Do you believed for so long that funds have not sold out on wilmar? Wilmar have been ard this price range for how long? 6-8 mths? I think more than that.... The only way for wilmar to break out from this range is for the company to do something, mayb forcefully share buyback? Bcos you need to screw the funds doing this, these guys only answer to pain, and pain is through margin call like the deal done between minzhong & indofood. Do you believe indofood is so stupid to aquire minzhong at 1.12, with the price b4 hand is at 60+c? As a company aquirer, thy can just put up 70+c offer price & let the debacle drag on. Looking at the rebuttal of minzhong, it's weak rebuttal. Indofood can wait out for 6 mths, by which time, I dnt believe they cannot GO the company at a cheaper price. All this hanky panky stuff is happening, it's only do they wan to do it to screw the guys rigging their companies shares. However, with financing needs in mind, I doubt wilmar will do extra to benefit their shares. jackson5      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 11:23) Posted: There were always big sellers at this price level. Some BBs still have a lot to offload.
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jackson5 Member	21-Sep-2013 12:42        jackson5 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	More than 3 m shares , sold at 3.18 at yesterday closing .
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 12:00        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I'm watching its 50d, 100d and 200d MA for the timing. 50d MA is already turning but will have to see the 100d MA making a turn or at least stop descending.
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jackson5 Member	21-Sep-2013 11:23        jackson5 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	There were always big sellers at this price level. Some BBs still have a lot to offload.
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Lucky03 Veteran	21-Sep-2013 11:09        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Perhaps this is a good window then for collection at every dip. Thanks for sharing :) Sealteam6      ( Date: 21-Sep-2013 09:57) Posted: Wilmar play this yr is on view that their china soya crushing margins will recover, actually it has & it's stablizing. The sugar biz is slowly picking up this q, w reference to sugar price action, I will say it's encouraging. Palm price will not rebound at least through this yr. however upstream only takes abt 25% of their sales. The main problem w this stock is, there are so little players left that it is easily rigged by 1 or 2 small size funds. Retail participation have been of non existence bcos there trading range have been so tight with little upside expectation.
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Sealteam6 Member	21-Sep-2013 09:57        Sealteam6 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wilmar play this yr is on view that their china soya crushing margins will recover, actually it has & it's stablizing. The sugar biz is slowly picking up this q, w reference to sugar price action, I will say it's encouraging. Palm price will not rebound at least through this yr. however upstream only takes abt 25% of their sales. The main problem w this stock is, there are so little players left that it is easily rigged by 1 or 2 small size funds. Retail participation have been of non existence bcos there trading range have been so tight with little upside expectation.
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Lucky03 Veteran	20-Sep-2013 18:58        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I believe there is correlation between commodity price and inflation. Watch out for Oct when US FED finally has to taper QE which many expect will cause interest rate to spike and hence possibly trigger a certain degree of inflation. If commodity prices indeed rise, then commodity stocks such as Wilmar may rise in tandem. If China economy recovers strongly and they succeeded in making consumption driven economy in place of export driven, that may spell double happiness for Wilmar. Will watch for good entry point to hold.
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Octavia Elite	18-Sep-2013 09:04        Octavia About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Fund manager buying into wilmar. 1034000 shares traded at 3.213.
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